Where is this team headed based on 2016?

andyb 2016-09-07 14:53:23 UTC #61

I also want the sabermetric types to show the value of this spending. The value of a sandwich compensation pick is something like $15-$20 million in anticipated WAR for a bonus that is less than $2 million. Draft spending is something like 10 times more efficient dollar per dollar than free agent spending. International spending is not quite as good a deal, but I bet the ratio is more like 5-1 in expected WAR per dollar for all but the most expensive contracts. This is what the Padres saw. They got 10 top prospects for what the Red Sox spent on Moncada. Even Moncada will probably look like a good deal. He needs to produce something like 8 WAR over the course of his pre-free agent years to be worth it and it sure looks like he is on a path to do so.

Philsmania 2016-09-07 15:08:37 UTC #62

To all those who say that the Phillies should blow the wad on international spending within the next couple of years, don't forget that there is a good chance that the next CBA will close the loophole that allowed teams like the Yankees a couple of years ago and the Padres this year to go nuclear one year, spend tens of millions of dollars on international talent and then just shrug off the penalties the next couple of years while their farm systems blossomed thanks to massive head and shoulders above everyone else international talent infusion. So, going nuclear or significantly exceeding the allotment may not be an option anymore without significant penalties going forward.

flyers19rw 2016-09-07 15:50:38 UTC #63

I'm in agreement that the Phillies should be spending money in player acquisition. However spending money just because you have it doesn't work for me. If the right players are available and open to going with the Phillies, I'm all for it. There is no reason for the Phillies to be out spent by another organization if the guy that they want is there. What I don't want to see, sorry here CD, is for the Phillies to throw money at a guy like Tomas who is terrible in the field, giving up way too many runs, and then wants big bucks and also out clauses in his contract.

Squire 2016-09-07 16:07:45 UTC #64

I would target 2017 too. The NYYankees (and a couple others) come back in 2017 but there many of the big spenders are out in 2017 so less competition.

Squire 2016-09-07 18:39:03 UTC #65

From a 2017 starting pitcher point of view...I wouldn't really do anything I think other than give Hellickson the QO. I think you find 5 capable starters next season between Nola, Velasquez, Eickhoff, Eflin, Thompson, Morgan, Asher, Klein, Lively, Pivetta, Buchanan. Some days I want Hellickson to accept and sign an extension and others I want him to decline and get the pick to be honest. I'd just make Knapp the backup on the major league team. Might as well be backing up Rupp rather than Alfaro. I would just let Joseph play first until Hoskins forces the question. Herrera and Altherr are two OFs with the 3rd in question. I might give Quinn a chance to leapfrog everyone to be honest. I was disappointed that Mackanin didn't run Goeddel out there more. I think he probably goes back to LHV for starter ABs. I'm not sure what to do with Williams/Crawford. Everyone seems to want to employ the tough love approach but I don't know them well enough to know if that is the right way.

allentown 2016-09-07 19:24:02 UTC #66

Squire:

From a 2017 starting pitcher point of view...I wouldn't really do anything I think other than give Hellickson the QO. I think you find 5 capable starters next season between Nola, Velasquez, Eickhoff, Eflin, Thompson, Morgan, Asher, Klein, Lively, Pivetta, Buchanan. Some days I want Hellickson to accept and sign an extension and others I want him to decline and get the pick to be honest. I'd just make Knapp the backup on the major league team. Might as well be backing up Rupp rather than Alfaro. I would just let Joseph play first until Hoskins forces the question. Herrera and Altherr are two OFs with the 3rd in question. I might give Quinn a chance to leapfrog everyone to be honest. I was disappointed that Mackanin didn't run Goeddel out there more. I think he probably goes back to LHV for starter ABs. I'm not sure what to do with Williams/Crawford. Everyone seems to want to employ the tough love approach but I don't know them well enough to know if that is the right way.

I don't advocate tough love, but Crawford and Williams just aren't ready yet, at least from an offensive standpoint. Williams has an OBP less than .300 and that does not project to immediate MLB success. He needs more work on hitting against LHP, hitting the slow stuff, and pitch recognition in general. I don't equate not promoting a corner OF with only border-line power until he gets his OBP above .300 with tough love. The idiocy of his various benchings is tough love and I was not in favor of that approach either for Williams or for Herrera. I view that as a management technique which research has proven to fail far more often than it succeeds. That's also why I don't see Larry Bowa as the medicine the big Phillies need.

LoneStarPhan 2016-09-07 20:07:31 UTC #67

An OBP under .300 is unacceptable for any starter, let alone for an outfielder. It is clear that both Williams and Crawford need more at bats at AAA. The worst thing the Phillies could do would be bring one or both up too soon and then end up bouncing them back and forth to the minors. Please let them get a couple months at AAA next season at a minimum. If they are doing very well by mid to late June, then call then up and put them into the starting role full time. Don't bring them up to start a couple times per week.

andyb 2016-09-07 20:15:12 UTC #68

The Phillies currently have a .296 team OBP.....

LoneStarPhan 2016-09-07 20:51:59 UTC #69

Clearly an unsatisfactory offense by this team. The biggest area needing improvement if they are to move to .500 and above is the offense.

zambonir 2016-09-07 20:52:23 UTC #70

Right, this is entirely about Williams' development, not his performance. Performance-wise he probably could have started on Opening Day and equalled or bettered the combined output of Hunter/Lough/Bourjos/Asche.

I don't think either of them are a big deal, Crawford is young and has barely been in AAA, if the season was two months longer we'd probably be talking about a slump he came out of, not a bad finish. Which may also be true of Williams. If Williams tears it up in ST he could still make the team and if not hopefully he won't need more than a couple of more months. I do wonder if he's just not taking AAA seriously enough, and was sulking to end the season, though if that's the case a promotion might help.

andyb 2016-09-07 20:58:45 UTC #71

The strength of the current team is really starting pitching. The strength of the upper minors is at least offense. We have promoted most of the high minors pitching prospects but still have Crawford, Williams, Quinn, Knapp, Alfaro, Hoskins, and Cozens among others who could figure into next year's team at some point. The winter assignments (and I do think Williams will play somewhere) will be important for players looking for a promotion early next year.

allentown 2016-09-07 21:54:35 UTC #72

Which pretty much is why our record is what it is. Williams' .286 OBP in AAA isn't going to magically turn into better than that if he moves right to MLB and the .296 includes pitchers. The more alarming thing about Williams' OBP is that it has been seriously sliding the past two months. Under .200 for the last month and only .274 the month before that, after being comfortably over .300 the first half of the year. Either he has a nagging injury or else pitchers have adjusted and he hasn't counter-adjusted yet. We want to bring him up when he's positioned to succeed, not bring him up to fail. If we brought him up now, he would fail -- probably to a 95%+ certainty. His season has swung to a negative arc. He needs to right himself, before we think of him playing in Philly. We don't need Dom Brown redux.

andyb 2016-09-07 22:06:19 UTC #73

allentown:

andyb:

The Phillies currently have a .296 team OBP.....
Which pretty much is why our record is what it is. Williams' .286 OBP in AAA isn't going to magically turn into better than that if he moves right to MLB and the .296 includes pitchers. The more alarming thing about Williams' OBP is that it has been seriously sliding the past two months. Under .200 for the last month and only .274 the month before that, after being comfortably over .300 the first half of the year. Either he has a nagging injury or else pitchers have adjusted and he hasn't counter-adjusted yet. We want to bring him up when he's positioned to succeed, not bring him up to fail. If we brought him up now, he would fail -- probably to a 95%+ certainty. His season has swung to a negative arc. He needs to right himself, before we think of him playing in Philly. We don't need Dom Brown redux.

I am not ready to bring Williams up. He did not do enough this year to merit it though I would say that he could go down to winter ball, fix some things, and have a shot at a job in the Spring. Probably will not happen but the last couple of months could also be a bit of bad luck and pressing. The question for me is whether the Phillies might sign/trade for an outfielder this winter. A trade would not necessarily block anyone - it would just force competition. I am not sure we go 4-5 years on a Josh Reddick, but there is a case to be made to do so. Then if Williams, Quinn, and Cozens all force major league promotions we have a nice problem.

The lack of offense from the outfield and first base is really the heart of this team's problems. One could live with what we are getting from the rest of the infield and catcher. We just have no plus bats from most of the offensive positions where you are supposed to have plus bats. Herrera is the best we have and he is only good, not great.

Nobody 2016-09-08 14:11:25 UTC #74

I totally agree with the point above. I believe this is the key reason why the Phillies spend on amateur talent is still not enough. As you correctly point out the reason you keep spending on amateur talent and max out at every level, is because it also provides a franchise the best way to acquire veteran MLB talent today. Because of the increased enforcement against steroids, the best way to acquire veterans is no longer Free Agency...it is thru trading prospects for quality veterans. This approach is what allowed the Rangers to acquire Cole Hamels, and STILL have a deep farm system.

The most foolish thing the Phillies did under the Amaro regime wasn't trading prospects for top veterans (Halladay, Pence, etc). That made total sense to me as Utley, Rollins, and Howard approached the end of their careers to extend the window as long as possible.

What was bizarre was that at exactly the same time they were draining the farm system via trades, they also reduced their investment on amateur talent to be practically the lowest in MLB. It made no logical sense and made what we see happening today a foregone conclusion as early as 5-6 years ago.

So I want Klentak and the PTB to more heavily invest in amateur talent so that we have a deep farm. This will help provide the trade chips the club will need to add some veterans to the mix when they are ready to compete, hopefully within the next few seasons.

VoteForKalas 2016-09-08 14:53:46 UTC #75

Exactly, which is outrageous and should be a loud clanging bell ringing in Klentak's office. They have got to define an offensive approach, develop it throughout their entire system and identify the talent that can execute it at a high level consistently.

Current stats:

Hernandez - .357
Herrera - .357
Rupp - .314
Blanco - .314
Altherr: .311

Franco - .298
Bourjos - .295
Joseph - .291

Galvis - .269
Ellis - .250
Goeddel - .248
Howard - .248
Parades - .242

julio 2016-09-08 15:33:01 UTC #76

Which presumably is being noted by Klentak (and MacPhail).

This season was always about evaluating what the club has. As VfK notes, much of what the major-league club currently has isn't particularly good.

But... we already know that major changes are in the pipeline. Looking at VfK's OBP stats, by group:

The worst group:

Galvis - .269
Ellis - .250
Goeddel - .248
Howard - .248
Parades - .242

Paredes is short-term filler; Howard is outta here in four weeks; Goeddel is a Rule 5 guy who will be in AAA next season; Ellis will be outta here in four weeks; Freddy Galvis is a space-holder for J.P. Crawford - who has demonstrated solid on-base skills in the minors (in what some here like to characterize as a "disappointing" showing in AAA, Crawford's OBP is .328, and his K/BB numbers are 59/42 - at age 21 in AAA). So yes, these five guys are bad - but they're also scheduled to be on a bus out of town.

The next group?

Franco - .298
Bourjos - .295
Joseph - .291

Franco is a concern. That's one. He needs work on plate discipline. Peter Bourjos is a space-holder, and a FA (e.g., outta here) in four weeks. Tommy Joseph may not be good enough - but then, he's arguably just a space-holder, too. There are prospects in AA who will take his job if he doesn't improve.

Last group?

Hernandez - .357
Herrera - .357
Rupp - .314
Blanco - .314
Altherr: .311

I see two very solid OBP, followed by the catcher Rupp, whose OBP is kinda OK, and coupled with significant power. Andres Blanco is a utility infielder, and a FA (e.g., not on the roster in four weeks). Altherr is an unknown at this point, given that he's not fully recovered from a wrist injury. He'll either rebound next season, or be on a bubble.

My conclusion? Much of the OBP problem here is in the guys who are just taking up space, and who don't figure in anybody's plans for rebuilding this club. I see exactly one player who we may be counting on long-term, who's struggling with an unacceptable OBP, with no mitigating factors - Maikel Franco. And yes, that's a concern - but it's one player, not the whole future roster.

Austinfan 2016-09-08 15:47:46 UTC #77

Vote for Kalas:

andyb:

The Phillies currently have a .296 team OBP.....
Exactly, which is outrageous and should be a loud clanging bell ringing in Klentak's office. They have got to define an offensive approach, develop it throughout their entire system and identify the talent that can execute it at a high level consistently.

Current stats:

Hernandez - .357
Herrera - .357
Rupp - .314 - more aggressive than past, may just need to get comfortable in starting role
Blanco - .314 - backup
Altherr: .311 - good plate discipline, just needs to get wrist 100% and get PA

Franco - .298 - too aggressive, needs coaching
Bourjos - .295 - gone
Joseph - .291 - mulligan, missed three years, still leanring

Galvis - .269 - improving, and batting 7th/8th, want him to be aggressive
Ellis - .250 - gone
Goeddel - .248 - Lehigh
Howard - .248 - gone
Parades - .242 - gone

Much of the problem will literally walk out the door this winter.

bigegypt0417 2016-09-08 15:50:44 UTC #78

Austinfan:

Vote for Kalas:

andyb:

The Phillies currently have a .296 team OBP.....
Exactly, which is outrageous and should be a loud clanging bell ringing in Klentak's office. They have got to define an offensive approach, develop it throughout their entire system and identify the talent that can execute it at a high level consistently.

Current stats:

Hernandez - .357
Herrera - .357
Rupp - .314 - more aggressive than past, may just need to get comfortable in starting role
Blanco - .314 - backup
Altherr: .311 - good plate discipline, just needs to get wrist 100% and get PA

Franco - .298 - too aggressive, needs coaching
Bourjos - .295 - gone
Joseph - .291 - mulligan, missed three years, still leanring

Galvis - .269 - improving, and batting 7th/8th, want him to be aggressive
Ellis - .250 - gone
Goeddel - .248 - Lehigh
Howard - .248 - gone
Parades - .242 - gone

Much of the problem will literally walk out the door this winter.

Yep. We've entered the final spin cycle of bad.

LoneStarPhan 2016-09-08 16:22:28 UTC #79

That will be true only if the replacements are significantly better in OBP.

flyers19rw 2016-09-08 16:32:44 UTC #80

Its frustrating to watch this bunch night after night but then, we knew from what we've seen over the last three seasons that they just weren't that good. Its a rare team that can bump its wins by fifteen from one season to another and these guys never were that. Its why I think that the Phillies will be fortunate to hit 80 wins next season. The talent isn't there yet.
Of the players listed above by andyb, maybe five and six at the most will be here next season. Besides the obvious cuts from the roster caused by terminated contracts and poor performance, I wouldn't be surprised if Franco was the only one to return if Klentak started to wheel and deal in the off season. Again, the in system talent isn't very good.