Where is this team headed based on 2016?

[Austinfan]

I am in almost complete agreement with everything you wrote. I'm very happy with this year's draft and quite disappointed that we did not spend to 150% of our international allocation -- that is a huge opportunity missed. As you say, another huge missed opportunity is not spending on the over-23 international market. I'm fairly alone in this view, but I think not signing one of this past winter's top non-comp FA SP was also a missed opportunity. You are completely correct about the importance of draft luck in the players other teams pass on and the continued health of the guys we draft. I think Nola's current arm problem likely results from Phillies' coaching changing his arm angle. Leading up to the draft he was lauded for great command and effortless delivery.

How many allocations were traded this year, and was there enough available talent to use the money?
Phillies seemed to have signed everyone they wanted without financial constraints, without an Ortiz, they had plenty of money, and the very top guys ($1M+ bonuses) were locked up well before this year.

If people were holding out for more value for allocations, it may not have made sense to trade prospects for second tier 16 year old players instead of signing more 3rd tier 16 year old players.

[flyers19rw]

The main question that I have for the near future of the Phillies is what happened at LV with the regression of the position players? The good season that the Pigs had looks to be due to the outstanding pitching that the team had. Lundquist deserves credit for that.
However the position players did not do well. Williams and Crawford stand out here but so do others. Knapp didn't live up to expectations. Neither did Sweeney and a couple of others. Maybe it was the cool, wet spring that got the hitters off on the wrong foot but perhaps there was something else. Whatever, the brass of the Phillies needs to take a look at what happened here and take steps to ensure that LV is not a place where good prospects crash and burn.

[tom81]

If they are looking for a one year left handed spare part at 1B/LF Ben Paulsen is available. mlbtraderumors.com/2016/09/b ... -ynoa.html. It won't cost much except take up a space.

[Austinfan]

I think it's more a matter of Lehigh separating the pretenders from the contenders.
Reading is too much a hitter's park and needs to be adjusted, you get a better read on prospects in Clearwater and Lehigh (Lakewood is too distorted in the other direction).
No matter what Hoskins and Cozens have done this year at Reading, most observers are skeptical until they do it at Lehigh.

The problem with Knapp is that he's putting up the exact same numbers in Lehigh as he did in Clearwater, it was the 1/2 season in Reading that was the anomaly.
The one player who is concerning is Williams, Crawford is just taking some time to adjust.

Sweeney didn't project to be a major league player without improvement. He didn't hit that well in the PCL, so his decline in the International League is partially just due to a tougher hitter's league, partially a decline in BABIP.

The reason I like Hoskins over Cozens is that Hoskins hit almost as well at Clearwater as at Reading.

[allentown]

I am in almost complete agreement with everything you wrote. I'm very happy with this year's draft and quite disappointed that we did not spend to 150% of our international allocation -- that is a huge opportunity missed. As you say, another huge missed opportunity is not spending on the over-23 international market. I'm fairly alone in this view, but I think not signing one of this past winter's top non-comp FA SP was also a missed opportunity. You are completely correct about the importance of draft luck in the players other teams pass on and the continued health of the guys we draft. I think Nola's current arm problem likely results from Phillies' coaching changing his arm angle. Leading up to the draft he was lauded for great command and effortless delivery.

How many allocations were traded this year, and was there enough available talent to use the money?
Phillies seemed to have signed everyone they wanted without financial constraints, without an Ortiz, they had plenty of money, and the very top guys ($1M+ bonuses) were locked up well before this year.

If people were holding out for more value for allocations, it may not have made sense to trade prospects for second tier 16 year old players instead of signing more 3rd tier 16 year old players.

Not to pick on you, but your argument is the standard apologia for the Phillies owners/management not spending all they can to improve the farm, which I have railed about, at least since 2009 and I think earlier with the gap of the good approach of 2008 under Gillick. We are talking neither about 2nd-tier 16-year old prospects nor about trading significant prospects of our own. I think "we signed everyone we were interested in" is a total straw man argument. The size of the eyes of the scouting staff are determined by the size of the budget they are given. I have no doubt that they would have been very, very interested in signing many/most of the top-rated international under-23 talents, had they been given sufficient budget to do so. As in the cheap drafts of prior years, when the team refused to exceed the Selig 'suggestions' for the top 10 rounds, adopting that as the total budget, the players selected on the draft were selected based upon the bonus budget the scouts were given. Had they been given a 30% larger budget, IMHO they obviously would have drafted differently, so that their were more high-ceiling, tough-sign draftees they wanted to sign. I think it would be fairer for you to state that, given the budget our LA scouts were given for bonuses, they signed all the guys they were interested in, whom they felt were signable within that limited budget. The Phillies had way more than a year to negotiate with available talent. The Phillies went to 150% last year to sign Ortiz. They could easily have decided when they committed to Ortiz that going to 150% would be their new standard. They didn't. That was a conscious choice and, again IMHO a very stupid and short-sighted choice. This is a high revenue market team, which has not spent the saved $ elsewhere. The only two net results of this are less talent in the organization and more $ in the owners pockets. I don't think this even makes sense as a business decision since both more MLB wins faster and more talent to point to down on the farm generate more fan interest. Even if TPTB chose to follow your preferred coursed of signing bargain vets and flipping them for prospects coupled with taking on expensive contracts of vets who still have good years in them, the trading for expensive contracts becomes possible without crippling the flow of talent from the farm, precisely because the team stretches to sign more top international talent and as many guys in the draft as possible. More kids does not mean you have to build your MLB team around only kids. It provides trade fodder to add vet stars to the team.

[allentown]

I think it's more a matter of Lehigh separating the pretenders from the contenders.
Reading is too much a hitter's park and needs to be adjusted, you get a better read on prospects in Clearwater and Lehigh (Lakewood is too distorted in the other direction).
No matter what Hoskins and Cozens have done this year at Reading, most observers are skeptical until they do it at Lehigh.

The problem with Knapp is that he's putting up the exact same numbers in Lehigh as he did in Clearwater, it was the 1/2 season in Reading that was the anomaly.
The one player who is concerning is Williams, Crawford is just taking some time to adjust.

Sweeney didn't project to be a major league player without improvement. He didn't hit that well in the PCL, so his decline in the International League is partially just due to a tougher hitter's league, partially a decline in BABIP.

The reason I like Hoskins over Cozens is that Hoskins hit almost as well at Clearwater as at Reading.

The two reasons I prefer Cozens over Hoskins (and I like Hoskins a lot) are age and defensive value. Given baseball thinking, as a RH first baseman, Hoskins is going to have to hit a ton. Cozens may K a ton, but he has a very respectable OBP, although Hoskins has an even better OBP.

[Philsmania]

The main question that I have for the near future of the Phillies is what happened at LV with the regression of the position players? The good season that the Pigs had looks to be due to the outstanding pitching that the team had. Lundquist deserves credit for that.
However the position players did not do well. Williams and Crawford stand out here but so do others. Knapp didn't live up to expectations. Neither did Sweeney and a couple of others. Maybe it was the cool, wet spring that got the hitters off on the wrong foot but perhaps there was something else. Whatever, the brass of the Phillies needs to take a look at what happened here and take steps to ensure that LV is not a place where good prospects crash and burn.

After me, your the second one who is picking up on this. All of the younger guys in LHV who qualified as prospects seemed stall or regress this season. See, Williams, Knapp, Crawford, Featherston and Sweeney. Conversely, the position players who thrived this season were generally AAAA, marginal ML and career AAA guys. See, Ruf, Hunter, Perkins, Asche, Lough and, to a lesser extent, Stassi. The only position player prospect who thrived this season was Joseph and he almost qualified as a career AAA guy since he started what was his seventh minor league season back in April. The pattern I see is that Brundage has trouble getting through to young guys and suffers from the minor league version of veteranitis and considering where the Phillies are right now and what they need, it's a problem. It's the same problem that some see in Mackanin but, I think, far worse. For that reason, I have been saying that I think it behooves them to promote Wathan who has done amazing work with prospects at Reading up to LHV.

[Austinfan]

I think this is a real stretch.

Joseph wasn't a career minor leaguer, he basically missed three full seasons and had limited bats at AA ball, much less AAA ball. Had a great start and hasn't hit bad in the majors despite his inexperience.
Featherston and Sweeney were marginal at best, they got a shot and did nothing with it, conversely, Perkins who is the same age at least had a decent season, and Stassi had a very good one overall.

Knapp simply reverted back to the same player he was at Clearwater last year before he was promoted.
Williams is the regression, Crawford simply is a very young player who needs more time to adjust (and to physically get stronger).

So the pattern I see is that they simply didn't have much talent at Lehigh on the field other than the veteran players.

[Austinfan]

The two reasons I prefer Cozens over Hoskins (and I like Hoskins a lot) are age and defensive value. Given baseball thinking, as a RH first baseman, Hoskins is going to have to hit a ton. Cozens may K a ton, but he has a very respectable OBP, although Hoskins has an even better OBP.

I'll give you position if Cozens can stay in RF, which remains to be seen though so far he hasn't slown down.

Age is a wash, Hoskins is a year older but as a college player can be expected to be 1-2 years older than an equivalent HS prospect when he hits the majors, so he's on essentially the same schedule. And it wasn't like Cozens has any physical development left!

Hoskins has the advantage of hitting at every level and on the road, so it's less likely his performance is ballpark generated.

[flyers19rw]

I think this is a real stretch.

Joseph wasn't a career minor leaguer, he basically missed three full seasons and had limited bats at AA ball, much less AAA ball. Had a great start and hasn't hit bad in the majors despite his inexperience.
Featherston and Sweeney were marginal at best, they got a shot and did nothing with it, conversely, Perkins who is the same age at least had a decent season, and Stassi had a very good one overall.

Knapp simply reverted back to the same player he was at Clearwater last year before he was promoted.
Williams is the regression, Crawford simply is a very young player who needs more time to adjust (and to physically get stronger).

So the pattern I see is that they simply didn't have much talent at Lehigh on the field other than the veteran players.

Featherston and Sweeney are the type of guys that every organization has that are there to stabilize the roster for the real prospects. Williams, Crawford and Knapp are the players that the Phillies wanted to see force their way onto the major league roster. That didn't happen and it begs the question, why not?
I don't agree with your assessment of Knapp. He's overcome TJ surgery and has given strong indication that he is a player at Lakewood and Reading. His successes can't be casually dismissed as being products of the park where he played.
The same goes with Williams and Crawford. They're young but they had had success at the other stops of their career. Why not now? Throw into the mix the Williams-Brundage dust ups and there is reason to examine what went on at LV with the best position prospects in the system.

[Austinfan]

Crawford has struggled initially at every stop, he's been promoted very rapidly, so it's really not a big deal that he's struggled the second half at Lehigh. If he doesn't improve next year, then it's a problem.

Williams was included in the deal b/c the Rangers had doubts about his plate discipline, and so far that's been his issue. He's young, so it may just be a matter of maturity, learning to control his aggressiveness, or he may be a bonehead, only time will tell. I think the Williams-Brundage dust ups have been a little overblown.

[Les229]

I know, there is still nearly a month to, but I have to admit that I am disappointed with this team, this year. This was supposed to go be the year that the Phils sorted out what they had as a foundation to build on. In spite of the great start they had in the spring, I feel this team has regressed as the year wore on. The more I watch them, the more I am astounded at their lack of fundamentals and baseball sense.

For instance, they have speed, but can’t steal and make too many dumb decisions on the basepaths. They can make some spectacular plays in the field, but make a simple play look silly. Many of the costly mistakes are not things that they get charged errors for, but they affect the score and wins. For instance, they have the score tied with the bases loaded and one out. The pitcher gets a grounder to second and Hernandez’s feed to Galvis is too high, makes the relay impossible and the winning run scores. Now there was no error because you can’t assume a double play, but on a major league level, you should demand it. This kind of fundamental mistake are happening time after time.

Recently, Franco has developed some bad fielding habits. He is no longer defending the bag with runners coming in, but standing to the left field side of the bag and tries to make swipe tags, it’s like he is afraid of the runner. It contributed to a loss in the recent Braves series. Actually this is just a symptom of the biggest problem of all, their lack of sustainable intensity. This is the thing that bothers me most of all. They were playing good ball, but erratic in the beginning of the year, but it is more like they are now on a Sunday picnic all the time. Can dogged intensity be taught, or do they bring it with them in their individual personalities? I am beginning to think that MacKanin is maybe a little laid back for this group, maybe the answer is to reinstate Bowa as manager for a while.

I really think the mental attitude is the biggest thing that needs to be addressed. For sure, they need a firmer hand, someone who can inspire them, or move the culprits for players who want to win. I was all for giving MacKannon his shot, but I think they need someone who is a little more of an in your face, stickler for fundamentals. When Franco stands aside of the bag and tries an ole swipe tag, the manager needs to be in his face like the world just ended.

I do agree that they need another bat, but not Cespedes and I wouldn’t give up much in the way of promising prospects for the bat.

[allentown]

I know, there is still nearly a month to, but I have to admit that I am disappointed with this team, this year. This was supposed to go be the year that the Phils sorted out what they had as a foundation to build on. In spite of the great start they had in the spring, I feel this team has regressed as the year wore on. The more I watch them, the more I am astounded at their lack of fundamentals and baseball sense.

For instance, they have speed, but can’t steal and make too many dumb decisions on the . basepaths. They can make some spectacular plays in the field, but make a simple play look silly. Many of the costly mistakes are not things that they get charged errors for, but they affect the score and wins. For instance, they have the score tied with the bases loaded and one out. The pitcher gets a grounder to second and Hernandez’s feed to Galvis is too high, makes the relay impossible and the winning run scores. Now there was no error because you can’t assume a double play, but on a major league level, you should demand it. This kind of fundamental mistake are happening time after time.

Recently, Franco has developed some bad fielding habits. He is no longer defending the bag with runners coming in, but standing to the left field side of the bag and tries to make swipe tags, it’s like he is afraid of the runner. It contributed to a loss in the recent Braves series. Actually this is just a symptom of the biggest problem of all, their lack of sustainable intensity. This is the thing that bothers me most of all. They were playing good ball, but erratic in the beginning of the year, but it is more like they are now on a Sunday picnic all the time. Can dogged intensity be taught, or do they bring it with them in their individual personalities? I am beginning to think that Mackanin is maybe a little laid back for this group, maybe the answer is to reinstate Bowa as manager for a while.

I really think the mental attitude is the biggest thing that needs to be addressed. For sure, they need a firmer hand, someone who can inspire them, or move the culprits for players who want to win. I was all for giving MacKannon his shot, but I think they need someone who is a little more of an in your face, stickler for fundamentals. When Franco stands aside of the bag and tries an ole swipe tag, the manager needs to be in his face like the world just ended.

I do agree that they need another bat, but not Cespedes and I wouldn’t give up much in the way of promising prospects for the bat.

I don't think the players need a firmer hand. The players need to be part of a more talented team. It must be obvious to them that management is not interested in winning. The spending this season has been a bad joke. We are well past the point in the season when the players know the team has no chance and nobody above them much cares to fix things. This has been an incredibly cheap season. Players will risk injury to win. They will go all out to win. They know that they have not been given the horses to win. They haven't had what it takes since Howard's injury. We know it, they know it. I don't see the point in blaming the players. That has been the Phillies' management/ownership approach in every season since Giles bought the team. What must be done is to add talent to the organization. We are being lapped by teams who will go to any length to win. The Phillies voluntarily followed Selig's voluntary draft bonus guidelines and the farm died. The Phillies avoided the Cuban market and the Japanese market except for their absurd MAG signing, just as decades past Giles avoided the international market and then did a PR splash wasting $ millions on Koreans nobody had ever heard of. We had a big international allocation this year, but not only didn't get an extra 50% allocation and spend it, we haven't even spent our basic allocation. It is clear when management/ownership isn't going all out to win. It is clear about today's Phillies. The players have to recognize it and it has to have an extremely corrosive effect on the team. Herrera was doing great and the Phillies were going ok until Pete did what you are suggesting and threw Herrera under the bus for basically ticky tack. When management builds an uncompetitive team, player scapegoats are always needed. We have had year after year after year of uncompetitive teams. Management/ownership has been very, very slow to turn things around and they haven't used their $ to hasten the turnaround. Next year promises more of the same and the team knows it. It's easy to bring in players who want to win. Almost all players want to win. It's a lot harder to bring in players who are good enough that they can win when they want to. That takes $ and it takes being willing to bend every rule to the maximum and take every advantage that baseball's rigged rules allow.

Bowa was a disaster as manager last time and he would be a disaster again.

I think that this year's team has played up to its talent level, which is clearly that of a second division team, and not the top of the second division. There is no manager in baseball who could win with the current Phillies roster. This is a sub-.500 team.

[Joe_Cowley]

I think, when the season is over, it should be looked at as a big success at both the major and minor league levels. The team looks to be making steady progress toward contending for the playoffs in 2-3 years, with the possibility of sustaining that success for the indefinite future. While the puzzle is not complete, the team currently has a decent stable of under-28 players who look to be major league players (Franco, Rupp, Herrera, Eickhoff, Nola, Velazquez, Galvis, Hernandez, Neris, Joseph) a handful of unproven younger guys with potential and a taste of big league ball (Eflin, Thompson, E. Ramos, Goeddell), another group of prospects that should appear in 2017-18 (N. Williams, Crawford, Quinn, Cozens, Hoskins, Pullin, Knapp, Alfaro, Pivetta, Valentin, Kingery), and a solid group of high upside players a few years away (Moniak, J. Ortiz, Randolph, Kilome, Medina, Grullon, Gowdy).

These lists don't even include players like Lively, Appel, Eshelman, Canelo, Tirado, Elneiry Garcia or Kyle Martin, each of whom would have been a top 15 prospect for us 2-3 years ago.

Next year will likely be another growth/transition year with a few mid level FA signings. It would be great to see us win 80-84 games, while also adding talent through the draft, international signings and a trade or two. It's my hope that we are a playoff contender in 2018.

[Squire]

This has been a complaint of mine...if you point out that the Phillies are timid on 7/2 you are told to be patient it is only the first day....and when another 2 months pass and there is literally no indication that they even spent up to their pool amount, let alone trading for the other 50%, let alone busting the allocation like at least half the league has done by now....nobody wants to talk about it anymore. Good for Nobody and Allentown for making that point again in their posts.

[bigegypt0417]

This has been a complaint of mine...if you point out that the Phillies are timid on 7/2 you are told to be patient it is only the first day....and when another 2 months pass and there is literally no indication that they even spent up to their pool amount, let alone trading for the other 50%, let alone busting the allocation like at least half the league has done by now....nobody wants to talk about it anymore. Good for Nobody and Allentown for making that point again in their posts.

I don't think I'm going to gauge success based on the amount of money they use. I'm not going to kill them for signing players just because there are those who believe the only way to show you're serious is to bust allotment or spend every penny. There are LA signing all over the system that show scouting trumps dollars and they seem to have a formula they use.

Its not like these players are sitting around waiting for teams to offer them contracts. Most of them have known where they're going for over a year. The Phillies in the matter of 18 months have gone from what most of us would have thought of as one of the worst systems to easily a top 10 system. That doesn't seem to have just happened by throwing tons of money around but by actually scouting and signing the right players.

[andyb]

This has been a complaint of mine...if you point out that the Phillies are timid on 7/2 you are told to be patient it is only the first day....and when another 2 months pass and there is literally no indication that they even spent up to their pool amount, let alone trading for the other 50%, let alone busting the allocation like at least half the league has done by now....nobody wants to talk about it anymore. Good for Nobody and Allentown for making that point again in their posts.

I have tried to be consistent. On 7/2 they announced a pretty good, but not great class. But we all know they left about one third of their original obligation unspent. The Phillies were also not seen as the leaders for any of the players that turned 16 in July and August. Since then a bunch of Cubans have signed, most with the Padres or Reds. None of these Cubans would have required 2 years of lead time to build relationships with teams because we did not know about them 2 years ago. Most have also signed for less than the $4.5-$5 million the Phillies theoretically have left.

So while it is true that there are 9 more months left to sign players, most of the targets worth trading allocations for are off the board. I am sure there are a few others that are interesting, but Yanio Perez might be the only one worth a large bonus left and we are not among the 5 teams interested in him. He is a 3B BTW with somewhat of a Franco-type profile with more speed. The younger Gurriel brother is also out there but he is 22 and just needs to wait less than a year to become part of the over 23 group where he can get a large bonus from teams without limits or penalties.

The Phillies clearly do not look like they intend to spend $8 million here. It is the first big mis-step from Klentak if that is the case. This was a free shot at 1 or 2 more high end talents in the system even if they would have been technically overpriced compared to the draft.

The Phillies still have time to spend money in other avenues for next year. They have run out of players to trade though where they can put significant money into deals. So they need to look at trading for expensive players like Grienke and the over 23 international market. They'll spend a little bit on free agents but probably mainly in the bullpen unless they decide to go for a Josh Reddick who is the one OF that is young enough where he might make some sense on a 4-5 year deal.

[Austinfan]

And how quick we forget that they're rebuilding from literally the bottom, starting last season they were an old team on its way to the worst record in baseball on merit BEFORE they started trading veterans. Why should they be throwing money at aging veterans on the first year of a major rebuilding program?

Yes, if a 25 year old international player is available who fits (i.e. some positions don't make sense) becomes available I'd expect them to be serious bidders this year, but 30+ year old second tier pitchers in free agency? Why bother? One or two more wins won't make a significant difference in 2017.

As far as doing a "San Diego" in LA, 2018 is the obvious year to target, their allocation will be much smaller the following seasons in any case and they'll have two years to lay the ground work for a big haul. Couldn't be done in 2016 and probably would be difficult in 2017 - and if you can't get a big haul, it's not worth doing.

As far as trading for allocations, I only saw one trade, with real prospects for a fairly limited amount of money. I suspect GMs are putting a higher value on LA allocations in the trade market, so if most of the top players have already committed, trading for a bigger allocation if it costs real prospects could be counter-productive. One thing that lowers the value of LA prospects is they have to be protected at a younger age than HS draftees for the most part, which makes them bigger gambles down the road (not just their upside, but the speed at which they reach that upside before you have to make a decision).

[andyb]

I would blow the international pool in 2017. Why wait till 2018. The international allocations drop precipitously from #1 ($5.6 million) to the 8-10 range where we are currently in the standings ($2.9-$3.3 million). There will also be something like 10 teams that they would not have to compete with because of penalties. Furthermore there is the prospect of those penalties becoming more severe or an international draft in the future. This window is closing. The Phillies need to act now.

[bigegypt0417]

I would blow the international pool in 2017. Why wait till 2018. The international allocations drop precipitously from #1 ($5.6 million) to the 8-10 range where we are currently in the standings ($2.9-$3.3 million). There will also be something like 10 teams that they would not have to compete with because of penalties. Furthermore there is the prospect of those penalties becoming more severe or an international draft in the future. This window is closing. The Phillies need to act now.

And I think it will be their scouts that will have to make that point. I trust their scouts in this situation and its possible they are taking their opinions in to play in making those decisions.