Where is this team headed based on 2016?

[Austinfan]

The problem isn't paying for the LF, it's finding a suitable target:

1) one who is overpriced but still viable, i.e., he won't cost much in terms of prospect because his team wants to dump him, but is stll a 2-3 WAR player (anything less, might as well gamble on unknowns)

2) doesn't have more than a couple years left on his contract, because otherwise he'll block young players in 2018-2019 like Howard and will be untradeable unless he has a tremendous bounceback year.

[zambonir]

Right, why give up something of value for Matt Kemp (or even Jay Bruce, given his season) or someone like that when you can just get the same production out of a Bourjos or Francoeur? But for me it still comes down to the fact that it's not about being cheap, it's about not actually wanting to win 85 games next year. I don't think this front office believes in the intangible development advantage of a "winning atmosphere," and I don't think any of the Phillies hitters would have necessarily had better years if the line-up had been stronger, it just would have been a better line-up (I realize some will argue Franco would thrive if another power hitter was ahead of him but I doubt this front office believes that).

And the free agents, there just aren't many good ones and they aren't likely to sign with the Phillies anyway, even with an overpay. Why would Cespedes (or Hellickson for that matter) do that when they'll have offers from teams who are more likely to play in the 2017 and 2018 postseason?

[schooldoc]

The problem isn't paying for the LF, it's finding a suitable target:

1) one who is overpriced but still viable, i.e., he won't cost much in terms of prospect because his team wants to dump him, but is stll a 2-3 WAR player (anything less, might as well gamble on unknowns)

2) doesn't have more than a couple years left on his contract, because otherwise he'll block young players in 2018-2019 like Howard and will be untradeable unless he has a tremendous bounceback year.

Here's a name: Andrew McCutchen.

Now, he's trended downward pretty steeply over the past 2 years. So here's where a little scouting comes in, on the bat speed and on the defense. What's left, going into his age 30 season? Maybe he's had nagging injuries. Maybe he could move to LF. I don't follow PIT closely enough to know. He's owed 14 million next year and 14.75 or a 1 million dollar buyout for 2018. I think PIT shops him to make room for Meadows.

Not saying I'd do it but maybe I'd kick the tires depending on the cost.

[EDmuch]

McCutcheon could make a n interesting target, subject to scouting reports.

[Philsmania]

The problem isn't paying for the LF, it's finding a suitable target:

1) one who is overpriced but still viable, i.e., he won't cost much in terms of prospect because his team wants to dump him, but is stll a 2-3 WAR player (anything less, might as well gamble on unknowns)

2) doesn't have more than a couple years left on his contract, because otherwise he'll block young players in 2018-2019 like Howard and will be untradeable unless he has a tremendous bounceback year.

Here's a name: Andrew McCutchen.

Now, he's trended downward pretty steeply over the past 2 years. So here's where a little scouting comes in, on the bat speed and on the defense. What's left, going into his age 30 season? Maybe he's had nagging injuries. Maybe he could move to LF. I don't follow PIT closely enough to know. He's owed 14 million next year and 14.75 or a 1 million dollar buyout for 2018. I think PIT shops him to make room for Meadows.

Not saying I'd do it but maybe I'd kick the tires depending on the cost.

What AF suggests in essence is doing in the outfield the same thing they that they did with Hellickson and Morton last offseason. Might be a good idea, especially if they get a guy who has a record of some success coming off an offseason who might be a good candidate for a bounceback walk season.

McCutcheon? Sounds great but he would cost more than a fringe prospect.

[VoteForKalas]

I think contending in 2017 is a pipe dream, no way we are able to build a 88-90 win roster in one off-season

I continue to believe the biggest issue that needs to be resolved is the Phillies offensive philosophy and how they are going to teach it effectively from GCL all the way up the chain and how they are going to target talent that fits that philosophy well and can actually execute it consistently.

I see the talent at the ML level with very little if any clue about how successful offensive baseball works: how to get on base consistently, how to approach different game situations, how to work a pitcher, how to manage the strike zone, how to understand/adjust to how the umpire is calling pitches etc.

And even worse no apparent teaching or accountability by the coaching staff or management to try and rectify that reality. Are they teaching a consistent philosophy? Are they just letting guys play? Do they not know what to do? How many years do you need to see the roster have bad OBP, low walks, high SO and poor pitch recognition before you do something about it??

The idiots on the TV broadcast and media reporters always act surprised, like, wow, our offense is really struggling. DUH! It has struggled and been bad since 2012. Until this team has an offensive identity based on principles that actually work, we're going nowhere. Everyone knew the identity of the 1993 offense. Ditto for the 2007-2010 offenses. They got on base very well and scored tons of runs. They would take pitchers apart without mercy and would pound relievers.

Our offensive approach this year seems to be again go to the plate and pray something good happens. Why sign bad hitters like Bourjos and expect a miracle? I realize we are trying to change a culture and develop a new core and that is not easy, but I wish there was more urgency and aggressiveness on pushing guys to have a better approach at the plate and, if they continue to fail repeatedly, sub for or replace them entirely.

There should be a constant flow of talent in and out the door until we find the players that can get it done. But first we have to know what we want to get done as an offense and that IMO is seriously lacking currently.

[Jay_Baller]

I think contending in 2017 is a pipe dream, no way we are able to build a 88-90 win roster in one off-season

I continue to believe the biggest issue that needs to be resolved is the Phillies offensive philosophy and how they are going to teach it effectively from GCL all the way up the chain and how they are going to target talent that fits that philosophy well and can actually execute it consistently.

I see the talent at the ML level with very little if any clue about how successful offensive baseball works: how to get on base consistently, how to approach different game situations, how to work a pitcher, how to manage the strike zone, how to understand/adjust to how the umpire is calling pitches etc.

And even worse no apparent teaching or accountability by the coaching staff or management to try and rectify that reality. Are they teaching a consistent philosophy? Are they just letting guys play? Do they not know what to do? How many years do you need to see the roster have bad OBP, low walks, high SO and poor pitch recognition before you do something about it??

The idiots on the TV broadcast and media reporters always act surprised, like, wow, our offense is really struggling. DUH! It has struggled and been bad since 2012. Until this team has an offensive identity based on principles that actually work, we're going nowhere. Everyone knew the identity of the 1993 offense. Ditto for the 2007-2010 offenses. They got on base very well and scored tons of runs. They would take pitchers apart without mercy and would pound relievers.

Our offensive approach this year seems to be again go to the plate and pray something good happens. Why sign bad hitters like Bourjos and expect a miracle? I realize we are trying to change a culture and develop a new core and that is not easy, but I wish there was more urgency and aggressiveness on pushing guys to have a better approach at the plate and, if they continue to fail repeatedly, sub for or replace them entirely.

There should be a constant flow of talent in and out the door until we find the players that can get it done. But first we have to know what we want to get done as an offense and that IMO is seriously lacking currently.

Great post.

[Jay_Baller]

The problem isn't paying for the LF, it's finding a suitable target:

1) one who is overpriced but still viable, i.e., he won't cost much in terms of prospect because his team wants to dump him, but is stll a 2-3 WAR player (anything less, might as well gamble on unknowns)

2) doesn't have more than a couple years left on his contract, because otherwise he'll block young players in 2018-2019 like Howard and will be untradeable unless he has a tremendous bounceback year.

Here's a name: Andrew McCutchen.

Now, he's trended downward pretty steeply over the past 2 years. So here's where a little scouting comes in, on the bat speed and on the defense. What's left, going into his age 30 season? Maybe he's had nagging injuries. Maybe he could move to LF. I don't follow PIT closely enough to know. He's owed 14 million next year and 14.75 or a 1 million dollar buyout for 2018. I think PIT shops him to make room for Meadows.

Not saying I'd do it but maybe I'd kick the tires depending on the cost.

Sometimes the Pirates are very interested in riding itself of big contracts. Witness the Francisco Liriano trade to the Blue Jays. They traded him and his salary along with two minor leaguers (part of their top 20, but possible borderline major league regulars) for Drew Hutchison.

[Philsmania]

The problem isn't paying for the LF, it's finding a suitable target:

1) one who is overpriced but still viable, i.e., he won't cost much in terms of prospect because his team wants to dump him, but is stll a 2-3 WAR player (anything less, might as well gamble on unknowns)

2) doesn't have more than a couple years left on his contract, because otherwise he'll block young players in 2018-2019 like Howard and will be untradeable unless he has a tremendous bounceback year.

Here's a name: Andrew McCutchen.

Now, he's trended downward pretty steeply over the past 2 years. So here's where a little scouting comes in, on the bat speed and on the defense. What's left, going into his age 30 season? Maybe he's had nagging injuries. Maybe he could move to LF. I don't follow PIT closely enough to know. He's owed 14 million next year and 14.75 or a 1 million dollar buyout for 2018. I think PIT shops him to make room for Meadows.

Not saying I'd do it but maybe I'd kick the tires depending on the cost.

Sometimes the Pirates are very interested in riding itself of big contracts. Witness the Francisco Liriano trade to the Blue Jays. They traded him and his salary along with two minor leaguers (part of their top 20, but possible borderline major league regulars) for Drew Hutchison.

Say, Williams (who may or may not be on good graces with the organization), Knapp (who may be expendable between Alfaro behind him and Rupp ahead of him) and Stassi (who may be expendable with Hoskins behind him and Joseph ahead of him) to Pittsburgh for McCutcheon. Would that be too high or too low a price for McCutcheon if the Pirates really attempt a salary dump?

[phillychuck]

Too high. Keep Williams or Knapp, or both if they really want a salary dump.

[julio]

Say, Williams (who may or may not be on good graces with the organization), Knapp (who may be expendable between Alfaro behind him and Rupp ahead of him) and Stassi (who may be expendable with Hoskins behind him and Joseph ahead of him) to Pittsburgh for McCutcheon. Would that be too high or too low a price for McCutcheon if the Pirates really attempt a salary dump?

Trade your best OF prospect, who will be 23 next season, for an OF who is seven years older (will be 30 next season); throw in a real catcher prospect (Knapp), and another guy who has essentially no major-league value (Stassi). And take on salary.

What? I'm sorry, but...what?

I love Andrew McCutchen. But he'll be 30, and he's already showing signs that something is not right. IF this season (and to some extent, 2015) is a fluke, and he rebounds, then you get two or three years of high-level play. Then what? And that's the gamble, since something may be going on there. And if they brought in McCutchen, and he delivered a 2017 similar to his 2016...the fan backlash in Philadelphia would, shall we say, not be pretty? Give up a lot for a highly-touted, very highly-paid guy, and he doesn't deliver? And worse, he's not scrappy/gritty, etc.? Hoo boy...

I get that part of the proposal here is to "get rid" of Nick Williams - because of perceptions about his attitude/makeup or whatever. But this is also a proposal to "get rid" of the future, in favor of the present. For an organization that is presumably engaged in a long-term project to rebuild, it would be a very short-sighted move, and directly at odds with what had been stated as the long-term goal.

[bigegypt0417]

Say, Williams (who may or may not be on good graces with the organization), Knapp (who may be expendable between Alfaro behind him and Rupp ahead of him) and Stassi (who may be expendable with Hoskins behind him and Joseph ahead of him) to Pittsburgh for McCutcheon. Would that be too high or too low a price for McCutcheon if the Pirates really attempt a salary dump?

Trade your best OF prospect, who will be 23 next season, for an OF who is seven years older (will be 30 next season); throw in a real catcher prospect (Knapp), and another guy who has essentially no major-league value (Stassi). And take on salary.

What? I'm sorry, but...what?

I get that part of the proposal here is to "get rid" of Nick Williams - because of perceptions about his attitude/makeup or whatever. But this is also a proposal to "get rid" of the future, in favor of the present. For an organization that is presumably engaged in a long-term project to rebuild, it would be a very short-sighted move, and directly at odds with what had been stated as the long-term goal.

I would not do that trade for Cutch but we're going to see these types of moves coming up and it would happen since we're building quality across the minors. I'm not really sure any long term strategy doesn't take in to account young players get moved. We are starting to see expendable players based on depth. I hope we try to make prospect for prospect trades but we'll see trades for vets as well...

[Austinfan]

This is where self-scouting helps, keep the best, move the rest.
Which is what Texas did in the Hamels trade, it's not that they didn't give us talent, but they kept the players they thought were more talented. Because at some point you're gonna lose 'em if you don't move 'em.
However, I think the winter of 2017 is when Klentak will be making those moves.

As far as hitting philosophy:
1) look at the draft picks and LA signings, Crawford, Randolph, Moniak, Brito, lots of guys with good plate discipline, the only real wild swinger is Pujols and he's become more disciplined. So they're using it for both player selection and coaching in the minors.
2) the one trade where that didn't hold was the Hamels trade, Alfaro and Williams had reputations as free swingers - but Alfaro has become far more disciplined this year, Williams just may be one of those kids with concrete heads.
3) major league team, Rupp regressed, but as a starting catcher for the first time in his career, you have to give him a mulligan, mentally he's focused on pitch calling which is still not second nature, Joseph is trying, but he also deserves a mulligan, really should have stayed at Lehigh, missed almost 1500 PA the last three years. Hernandez is very disciplined as a leadoff hitter. Altherr is a disciplined hitter.

So we're really talking Franco, Herrera and Galvis (Bourjas is what he is, as is Asche, et al).

Franco is young and tries to do too much, I'm certainly not giving up on him at this point in his career. He overswings and chases bad pitches, but when he's patient and under control, he's an elite hitter.

Herrera is a head case, as good as he looked the first half, that's how bad he looks the second half, but again, too early to give up on him. His swing mechanics are funky and he has to learn to be more patient at the plate, understand his future depends on his OBP, not his SA, and not trying to kill every pitch.

Galvis spent most of the year reworking his swing mechanics, at the beginning of August, the light went on, you can call it SSS, but having watch the games, the difference jumps out at you, he's no longer herky jerky lunging at pitches, he has a quick bat and a sweet swing that generates power.
Since August 1: 116 15 26 8 0 7 17 7 26 .224/.268/.474/.742
What jumps out is he's much better from the left side of the plate, time to abandon switch hitting.
He still needs to work on his plate discipline, but in the 7th/8th slot, I'll take a 20+ HR SS anytime.

[Nobody]

I am mostly positive on the direction of the organization now, at least in respects that I think the 2 main roadblocks to any type of real or sustained turnaround by the Phillies are now out of the front office and out of the way.

However, there are 2 factors that I and others have pointed out over the years that I think are still relevant to the current rebuild and any expectations we might have about the next few seasons...

1. Once in a generation combination of luck and great picks
The Phillies weren’t just good drafting between 1996 and 2002, they were also incredibly lucky. Just having high 1st round draft picks isn’t enough. Sometimes you need the right guy to fall in the right year. The Phillies draft bonanza from 1996 thru 2002 netted them not just good MLB players, but guys that had borderline HOF careers…or at the very least multiple HOF level seasons. I don’t care how great of a talent scout you are, that isn’t normal.

Having both Chase Utley and Cole Hamels dropping and being available in the middle of Round 1? Crazy. Finding Jimmy Rollins in Round 2? Ryan Howard in Round 4? Even Bretty Myers and Pat Burrell had legit MLB talent. Imagine if the former twin roadblocks to progress in the Front Office had actually allowed Mike Arbuckle to add J.D. Drew and Mark Teixeira like he wanted to? Incredible.

The Phillies collected a special, historic, once in a generation haul over a period of 6-7 years that is not likely to be repeated anytime soon. No matter how great Matt Klentak, Johnny Almaraz, and the current scouts might be they will need a lot of luck and “right time, right place” to come close to repeating that kind of performance we saw from 1996-2002. And they will need those guys to stay healthy and productive. For example, Aaron Nola was a great pick, probably the right pick at #10 based on what was on the board at the time, so the Phillies did the right thing. But will his health allow him to have the kind of career he is capable of?

And it should be mentioned again, that even with that great borderline HOF level collection of talent, it was almost 10 years from the initial drafting of Jimmy Rollins before the collective additions of talent turned the MLB club into a legit playoff contender.

**
2. The Phillies still aren't spending enough on amateur talent to make up for a decade plus of neglect**
Unfortunately, after the Phillies accumulated that great haul of prospects mentioned above, they largely stopped investing any real money in amateur talent and skimped on amateur spending for most of the next decade plus. That has become obvious to everyone now. On the good side things have changed recently. We all recognize that and are grateful that finally things have changed for the better. Hooray!

But even now, even over the last 2 years, the Phillies are still not spending enough to make up for the moon sized crater they allowed their minor league system to fall into. The spending on Cubans and Latin Americans is still poor (relative to what other franchises are investing). Yes, the Phillies of 2015/2016 are many times better than what it was. But the Phillies used to be one of the absolute worst MLB teams when it came to investing in Latin America or Cuba, so merely moving towards the middle of the pack is not a cause for celebration. The Phillies have moved from terrible to mediocre in their spending. And mediocre is still not good enough.

When exactly do we think there will ever be a Cuban good enough for the Phillies to throw money at? Yasmany Tomas looks absolutely terrible in Arizona (tongue firmly in cheek). All he cost was money...something the Phillies have buckets of. How about giving us something on the Cuban front or spending $20+M one year in Latin America like the Red Sox, Rangers, Dodgers, or Cubs?

As excited as we are about some of the recent additions to the minor league system, the law of averages says most of them will never be even average major leaguers. It is an unfortunate reality of the math involved, no matter how excited we may get by some of them now. For example I have always had a fascination with Andrew Pullin, similar to the way CD had a fascination with Kelly Dugan. But beyond our fanboy fascinations with our favorite players in the minors, the reality is that neither is likely to ever help the big club compete for a championship. The same is true with most of the guys we follow and root for in the minors.

The Phillies need to keep relentlessly pouring funds into the Draft, Latin America, Cuba, and elsewhere in the world. They need to keep their foot on the gas pedal year after year after year for the next decade. I am okay with them not investing $10’s of millions into overpaid Free Agents. I am not okay with them continuing to remain somewhat frugal (relatively speaking) in the amateur talent acquisition markets. There is still significant room for improvement there.

I still see 2018 / 2019 as more realistic for any type of competitive team. And that is only if 2 or 3 prospects turn out to be legit MLB studs...not just MLB regulars...MLB stars, guys who are among the best at their positions.

The above is why I was so negative for years. The old Phillies brain trust was destroying this franchise and setting it back for years (even while the MLB club was winning a record number of games in 2011). Over a decade of total neglect in the minor league system will likely take years to correct.

I am not negative anymore, I am just trying to be realistic in my expectations. Now that 30 year olds can't juice anymore to extend their careers with another 5-6 years of good performance, there are no easy fixes in Free Agency. Building thru the draft takes a lot of time (years), money, and good luck (lots of it). It is a annual philosophy. It is a marathon, not a sprint. The old Phillies brain trust never understood that. I sincerely hope Matt Klentak does.

Let's hope some of the guys having great seasons in the minors this year continue to develop and maybe one day be able to do something similar at the MLB level. What the future looks like and how fast the turnaround happens, largely depends on them at this point.

[allentown]

Say, Williams (who may or may not be on good graces with the organization), Knapp (who may be expendable between Alfaro behind him and Rupp ahead of him) and Stassi (who may be expendable with Hoskins behind him and Joseph ahead of him) to Pittsburgh for McCutcheon. Would that be too high or too low a price for McCutcheon if the Pirates really attempt a salary dump?

Trade your best OF prospect, who will be 23 next season, for an OF who is seven years older (will be 30 next season); throw in a real catcher prospect (Knapp), and another guy who has essentially no major-league value (Stassi). And take on salary.

What? I'm sorry, but...what?

I get that part of the proposal here is to "get rid" of Nick Williams - because of perceptions about his attitude/makeup or whatever. But this is also a proposal to "get rid" of the future, in favor of the present. For an organization that is presumably engaged in a long-term project to rebuild, it would be a very short-sighted move, and directly at odds with what had been stated as the long-term goal.

I would not do that trade for Cutch but we're going to see these types of moves coming up and it would happen since we're building quality across the minors. I'm not really sure any long term strategy doesn't take in to account young players get moved. We are starting to see expendable players based on depth. I hope we try to make prospect for prospect trades but we'll see trades for vets as well...

I don't see the benefit. Thus far it seems fairly clear that TPTB don't intend to compete next year. Why trade kids who may very well help our next contending team? I have no doubt both Williams and Knapp can do that. Knapp may not be our starting catcher and Williams may not be the stud hitter we hoped he would become, but both should be useful parts of a future Phillies contender and both could still develop into starters (I think Williams will be a starter and could develop into a plus starter, although that seems less likely than it did a year ago). Young talent and $ spent on McKutcheon is wasted, because unless our developing OFs fail to develop as we expect/hope, there really is no significant role for him on our next contender. There is a place for a high quality pitcher of his age.

[allentown]

I am mostly positive on the direction of the organization now, at least in respects that I think the 2 main roadblocks to any type of real or sustained turnaround by the Phillies are now out of the front office and out of the way.

However, there are 2 factors that I and others have pointed out over the years that I think are still relevant to the current rebuild and any expectations we might have about the next few seasons...

1. Once in a generation combination of luck and great picks
The Phillies weren’t just good drafting between 1996 and 2002, they were also incredibly lucky. Just having high 1st round draft picks isn’t enough. Sometimes you need the right guy to fall in the right year. The Phillies draft bonanza from 1996 thru 2002 netted them not just good MLB players, but guys that had borderline HOF careers…or at the very least multiple HOF level seasons. I don’t care how great of a talent scout you are, that isn’t normal.

Having both Chase Utley and Cole Hamels dropping and being available in the middle of Round 1? Crazy. Finding Jimmy Rollins in Round 2? Ryan Howard in Round 4? Even Bretty Myers and Pat Burrell had legit MLB talent. Imagine if the former twin roadblocks to progress in the Front Office had actually allowed Mike Arbuckle to add J.D. Drew and Mark Teixeira like he wanted to? Incredible.

The Phillies collected a special, historic, once in a generation haul over a period of 6-7 years that is not likely to be repeated anytime soon. No matter how great Matt Klentak, Johnny Almaraz, and the current scouts might be they will need a lot of luck and “right time, right place” to come close to repeating that kind of performance we saw from 1996-2002. And they will need those guys to stay healthy and productive. For example, Aaron Nola was a great pick, probably the right pick at #10 based on what was on the board at the time, so the Phillies did the right thing. But will his health allow him to have the kind of career he is capable of?

And it should be mentioned again, that even with that great borderline HOF level collection of talent, it was almost 10 years from the initial drafting of Jimmy Rollins before the collective additions of talent turned the MLB club into a legit playoff contender.

**
2. The Phillies still aren't spending enough on amateur talent to make up for a decade plus of neglect**
Unfortunately, after the Phillies accumulated that great haul of prospects mentioned above, they largely stopped investing any real money in amateur talent and skimped on amateur spending for most of the next decade plus. That has become obvious to everyone now. On the good side things have changed recently. We all recognize that and are grateful that finally things have changed for the better. Hooray!

But even now, even over the last 2 years, the Phillies are still not spending enough to make up for the moon sized crater they allowed their minor league system to fall into. The spending on Cubans and Latin Americans is still poor (relative to what other franchises are investing). Yes, the Phillies of 2015/2016 are many times better than what it was. But the Phillies used to be one of the absolute worst MLB teams when it came to investing in Latin America or Cuba, so merely moving towards the middle of the pack is not a cause for celebration. The Phillies have moved from terrible to mediocre in their spending. And mediocre is still not good enough.

When exactly do we think there will ever be a Cuban good enough for the Phillies to throw money at? Yasmany Tomas looks absolutely terrible in Arizona (tongue firmly in cheek). All he cost was money...something the Phillies have buckets of. How about giving us something on the Cuban front or spending $20+M one year in Latin America like the Red Sox, Rangers, Dodgers, or Cubs?

As excited as we are about some of the recent additions to the minor league system, the law of averages says most of them will never be even average major leaguers. It is an unfortunate reality of the math involved, no matter how excited we may get by some of them now. For example I have always had a fascination with Andrew Pullin, similar to the way CD had a fascination with Kelly Dugan. But beyond our fanboy fascinations with our favorite players in the minors, the reality is that neither is likely to ever help the big club compete for a championship. The same is true with most of the guys we follow and root for in the minors.

The Phillies need to keep relentlessly pouring funds into the Draft, Latin America, Cuba, and elsewhere in the world. They need to keep their foot on the gas pedal year after year after year for the next decade. I am okay with them not investing $10’s of millions into overpaid Free Agents. I am not okay with them continuing to remain somewhat frugal (relatively speaking) in the amateur talent acquisition markets. There is still significant room for improvement there.

I still see 2018 / 2019 as more realistic for any type of competitive team. And that is only if 2 or 3 prospects turn out to be legit MLB studs...not just MLB regulars...MLB stars, guys who are among the best at their positions.

The above is why I was so negative for years. The old Phillies brain trust was destroying this franchise and setting it back for years (even while the MLB club was winning a record number of games in 2011). Over a decade of total neglect in the minor league system will likely take years to correct.

I am not negative anymore, I am just trying to be realistic in my expectations. Now that 30 year olds can't juice anymore to extend their careers with another 5-6 years of good performance, there are no easy fixes in Free Agency. Building thru the draft takes a lot of time (years), money, and good luck (lots of it). It is a annual philosophy. It is a marathon, not a sprint. The old Phillies brain trust never understood that. I sincerely hope Matt Klentak does.

Let's hope some of the guys having great seasons in the minors this year continue to develop and maybe one day be able to do something similar at the MLB level. What the future looks like and how fast the turnaround happens, largely depends on them at this point.

I am in almost complete agreement with everything you wrote. I'm very happy with this year's draft and quite disappointed that we did not spend to 150% of our international allocation -- that is a huge opportunity missed. As you say, another huge missed opportunity is not spending on the over-23 international market. I'm fairly alone in this view, but I think not signing one of this past winter's top non-comp FA SP was also a missed opportunity. You are completely correct about the importance of draft luck in the players other teams pass on and the continued health of the guys we draft. I think Nola's current arm problem likely results from Phillies' coaching changing his arm angle. Leading up to the draft he was lauded for great command and effortless delivery.

[bigegypt0417]

Say, Williams (who may or may not be on good graces with the organization), Knapp (who may be expendable between Alfaro behind him and Rupp ahead of him) and Stassi (who may be expendable with Hoskins behind him and Joseph ahead of him) to Pittsburgh for McCutcheon. Would that be too high or too low a price for McCutcheon if the Pirates really attempt a salary dump?

Trade your best OF prospect, who will be 23 next season, for an OF who is seven years older (will be 30 next season); throw in a real catcher prospect (Knapp), and another guy who has essentially no major-league value (Stassi). And take on salary.

What? I'm sorry, but...what?

I get that part of the proposal here is to "get rid" of Nick Williams - because of perceptions about his attitude/makeup or whatever. But this is also a proposal to "get rid" of the future, in favor of the present. For an organization that is presumably engaged in a long-term project to rebuild, it would be a very short-sighted move, and directly at odds with what had been stated as the long-term goal.

I would not do that trade for Cutch but we're going to see these types of moves coming up and it would happen since we're building quality across the minors. I'm not really sure any long term strategy doesn't take in to account young players get moved. We are starting to see expendable players based on depth. I hope we try to make prospect for prospect trades but we'll see trades for vets as well...

I don't see the benefit. Thus far it seems fairly clear that TPTB don't intend to compete next year. Why trade kids who may very well help our next contending team? I have no doubt both Williams and Knapp can do that. Knapp may not be our starting catcher and Williams may not be the stud hitter we hoped he would become, but both should be useful parts of a future Phillies contender and both could still develop into starters (I think Williams will be a starter and could develop into a plus starter, although that seems less likely than it did a year ago). Young talent and $ spent on McKutcheon is wasted, because unless our developing OFs fail to develop as we expect/hope, there really is no significant role for him on our next contender. There is a place for a high quality pitcher of his age.

Again, doing that trade for Cutch doesn't make much sense but at some point you need to move players who have value but may not fit your future plans. Knapp is at a position where he have options seemingly at every level including the majors. I trust the group running this team that they will measure risk and make deals accordingly...

[Austinfan]

If McClure ruined Nola did he save Thompson? And he certainly revived Hellickson.

Phillies did the right thing, to spend big in LA you have to plan two years ahead, and it didn't make sense busting budget in 2016, not that they were prepared to do so in any case. It would make sense, if the rules aren't changed, to bust the LA allocation in 2018 when they'll be in the middle of the pack when it comes to allocation and can only sign one or two of the top 50 players.

Who was available over 23 last year? Who's available this year?

I do hope they're channeling money into Venezuela through back channels to their people to keep them afloat in rough times, I think that will have huge value down the road when things settle down - you develop loyalty by taking care of people in tough times, not by throwing money at them when they're flush. And it's the right thing to do, even if they can't field a team, to keep the academy afloat so that kids can get some money and some education and training, and employees a paycheck.

[VoteForKalas]

I am mostly positive on the direction of the organization now, at least in respects that I think the 2 main roadblocks to any type of real or sustained turnaround by the Phillies are now out of the front office and out of the way.

However, there are 2 factors that I and others have pointed out over the years that I think are still relevant to the current rebuild and any expectations we might have about the next few seasons...

1. Once in a generation combination of luck and great picks
The Phillies weren’t just good drafting between 1996 and 2002, they were also incredibly lucky. Just having high 1st round draft picks isn’t enough. Sometimes you need the right guy to fall in the right year. The Phillies draft bonanza from 1996 thru 2002 netted them not just good MLB players, but guys that had borderline HOF careers…or at the very least multiple HOF level seasons. I don’t care how great of a talent scout you are, that isn’t normal.

Having both Chase Utley and Cole Hamels dropping and being available in the middle of Round 1? Crazy. Finding Jimmy Rollins in Round 2? Ryan Howard in Round 4? Even Bretty Myers and Pat Burrell had legit MLB talent. Imagine if the former twin roadblocks to progress in the Front Office had actually allowed Mike Arbuckle to add J.D. Drew and Mark Teixeira like he wanted to? Incredible.

The Phillies collected a special, historic, once in a generation haul over a period of 6-7 years that is not likely to be repeated anytime soon. No matter how great Matt Klentak, Johnny Almaraz, and the current scouts might be they will need a lot of luck and “right time, right place” to come close to repeating that kind of performance we saw from 1996-2002. And they will need those guys to stay healthy and productive. For example, Aaron Nola was a great pick, probably the right pick at #10 based on what was on the board at the time, so the Phillies did the right thing. But will his health allow him to have the kind of career he is capable of?

And it should be mentioned again, that even with that great borderline HOF level collection of talent, it was almost 10 years from the initial drafting of Jimmy Rollins before the collective additions of talent turned the MLB club into a legit playoff contender.

**
2. The Phillies still aren't spending enough on amateur talent to make up for a decade plus of neglect**
Unfortunately, after the Phillies accumulated that great haul of prospects mentioned above, they largely stopped investing any real money in amateur talent and skimped on amateur spending for most of the next decade plus. That has become obvious to everyone now. On the good side things have changed recently. We all recognize that and are grateful that finally things have changed for the better. Hooray!

But even now, even over the last 2 years, the Phillies are still not spending enough to make up for the moon sized crater they allowed their minor league system to fall into. The spending on Cubans and Latin Americans is still poor (relative to what other franchises are investing). Yes, the Phillies of 2015/2016 are many times better than what it was. But the Phillies used to be one of the absolute worst MLB teams when it came to investing in Latin America or Cuba, so merely moving towards the middle of the pack is not a cause for celebration. The Phillies have moved from terrible to mediocre in their spending. And mediocre is still not good enough.

When exactly do we think there will ever be a Cuban good enough for the Phillies to throw money at? Yasmany Tomas looks absolutely terrible in Arizona (tongue firmly in cheek). All he cost was money...something the Phillies have buckets of. How about giving us something on the Cuban front or spending $20+M one year in Latin America like the Red Sox, Rangers, Dodgers, or Cubs?

As excited as we are about some of the recent additions to the minor league system, the law of averages says most of them will never be even average major leaguers. It is an unfortunate reality of the math involved, no matter how excited we may get by some of them now. For example I have always had a fascination with Andrew Pullin, similar to the way CD had a fascination with Kelly Dugan. But beyond our fanboy fascinations with our favorite players in the minors, the reality is that neither is likely to ever help the big club compete for a championship. The same is true with most of the guys we follow and root for in the minors.

The Phillies need to keep relentlessly pouring funds into the Draft, Latin America, Cuba, and elsewhere in the world. They need to keep their foot on the gas pedal year after year after year for the next decade. I am okay with them not investing $10’s of millions into overpaid Free Agents. I am not okay with them continuing to remain somewhat frugal (relatively speaking) in the amateur talent acquisition markets. There is still significant room for improvement there.

I still see 2018 / 2019 as more realistic for any type of competitive team. And that is only if 2 or 3 prospects turn out to be legit MLB studs...not just MLB regulars...MLB stars, guys who are among the best at their positions.

The above is why I was so negative for years. The old Phillies brain trust was destroying this franchise and setting it back for years (even while the MLB club was winning a record number of games in 2011). Over a decade of total neglect in the minor league system will likely take years to correct.

I am not negative anymore, I am just trying to be realistic in my expectations. Now that 30 year olds can't juice anymore to extend their careers with another 5-6 years of good performance, there are no easy fixes in Free Agency. Building thru the draft takes a lot of time (years), money, and good luck (lots of it). It is a annual philosophy. It is a marathon, not a sprint. The old Phillies brain trust never understood that. I sincerely hope Matt Klentak does.

Let's hope some of the guys having great seasons in the minors this year continue to develop and maybe one day be able to do something similar at the MLB level. What the future looks like and how fast the turnaround happens, largely depends on them at this point.

Good to see you, Nobody...well said

[andyb]

The real singular issue for the Phillies to answer is why is their U23 international spending below their pool (much less the 150%). I am not sure the 2-year planning answer is good enough as there has been extra Cuban targets in the pipeline this year that could not have had 2 years of lead time to sign.

This is Klentak's biggest mistake IMO if we don't spend another couple of million minimum internationally. There is no excuse to spend below the pool limit at all. It probably would not have been wise to blow the limit this year, but they need to spend to that limit at the very least. If they are not thinking of exceeding the limit in 2017 it will be a big problem also.