Where is this team headed based on 2016?

[julio]

That will be true only if the replacements are significantly better in OBP.

C: Rupp - currently .314; Alfaro (bit of a free swinger, but .325 OBP in AA) in the wings (Knapp w/ a .330 OBP in AAA).
1B: Howard gone; Joseph may improve? If not, Hoskins (AA OBP is .094 above BA, currently at .377; bodes well).
2B: Hernandez - currently .357.
SS: Galvis is keeping it warm for J.P. Crawford - who has consistently put up good OBP.
3B: Franco. Needs work.
LF: Short-term filler TBD, then Nick Williams. Needs work.
CF: Herrera - currently .357.
RF: Altherr - currently .311, still recovering from wrist injury.

Bench? High OBP guys generally aren't on anybody's bench, unless they simply cannot play the field.

Now, this may be rose-colored-glasses, but this doesn't look so bad...and I don't think that the players currently on the roster(s) are the universe, either. Obviously, we're going to see players leave the roster as FA (Blanco, Bourjos, Howard), or as potential non-tenders (Asche, Burriss, Ruf, Paredes), but some of the non-tenders could instead be traded; some relief pitching could be traded. Freddy Galvis could be traded, for that matter. One way or another, there will be additional names to consider.

[zambonir]

I wouldn't be surprised if Franco was the only one to return if Klentak started to wheel and deal in the off season. Again, the in system talent isn't very good.

Seems like the window has closed (for now) on the the "trade Herrera while he's hot" option. He's not hot, and the depth of Altherr, Quinn and Williams is behind schedule.

btw, Heyman reports the Phillies will pursue a veteran bat or two. He names Martin Prado and Ian Desmond. Note that this has no sourcing whatsoever, but (putting aside their age the possible $/term) they would both fit in somewhere positionally (Prado at 2B or LF, Desmond in CF).

todaysknuckleball.com/nl/phi ... offseason/

[andyb]

Its frustrating to watch this bunch night after night but then, we knew from what we've seen over the last three seasons that they just weren't that good. Its a rare team that can bump its wins by fifteen from one season to another and these guys never were that. Its why I think that the Phillies will be fortunate to hit 80 wins next season. The talent isn't there yet.
Of the players listed above by andyb, maybe five and six at the most will be here next season. Besides the obvious cuts from the roster caused by terminated contracts and poor performance, I wouldn't be surprised if Franco was the only one to return if Klentak started to wheel and deal in the off season. Again, the in system talent isn't very good.

Not my list but I agree that the OBP problem is largely solved by players coming and going. OBP is obviously important and we should see significant improvements from Crawford and then some combination of Quinn, Cozens, and Hoskins. Williams and Alfaro are less strong in OBP so they need to be higher average hitters with power. They still could lead to improvement though if they are replacing guys like Bourjos with something a bit better.

I disagree with assertions that the Phillies do not emphasize strike zone discipline in the minors. The larger problem is that our offensive prospects in the last 5 years have generally not been that good. The pipeline coming in is full of better players and that is important. We need a lineup with a balance of stronger OBP players with players with more power. If we can have both - great - but getting at least one of those from most players is important. Baseball Prospectus had an interesting article last year on the changes that Tampa has gone through in the past year in terms of aggressiveness. They advocated a more aggressive approach than they had in the past based upon their own internal advanced data. We can have a good lineup that balances high OBP players like Crawford with more aggressive players like Williams.

Article that references the BP piece (which is in print, not online)
draysbay.com/2016/2/9/109509 ... prospectus

[Austinfan]

There is a difference between aggressive and undisciplined.
An aggressive hitter knows what pitch he's looking for, and isn't afraid to pull the trigger when he gets it.
An undisciplined hitter reacts to pitches and swings at balls out of his hitting zone (less than two strikes) or out of the strike zone.

Herrera is a perfect example, when he was being disciplined, he not only walked more, he hit better because he wasn't chasing bad pitches.
And it's not just strikeouts, Franco is too aggressive and rolls the ball over consistently to short and 3B because he doesn't keep his hands back and wait on pitches.

Some of this is the ability to see the spin out of the pitcher's hand, a lot of this is homework, if a guy has a slider that breaks down sharply, then you don't swing at it when it comes in knee high because if you watched film, you know it's going to end up at your ankles - force him to elevate the breaking ball or take the walk.

I think Williams is going to flop, because he's become less disciplined, whereas Alfaro is learning how to be a disciplined hitter.
And it's why Lehigh is so important, it's where hitters show they can lay off junk outside the strike zone and force pitchers to give them pitches they can handle.
It's not about walks, some guys will draw a lot of walks (especially, if like Herrera, they can foul off strikes they can't handle), other guys use plate discipline to get themselves into favorable counts and force the pitcher to throw something they can hit over the plate.

[flyers19rw]

Its frustrating to watch this bunch night after night but then, we knew from what we've seen over the last three seasons that they just weren't that good. Its a rare team that can bump its wins by fifteen from one season to another and these guys never were that. Its why I think that the Phillies will be fortunate to hit 80 wins next season. The talent isn't there yet.
Of the players listed above by andyb, maybe five and six at the most will be here next season. Besides the obvious cuts from the roster caused by terminated contracts and poor performance, I wouldn't be surprised if Franco was the only one to return if Klentak started to wheel and deal in the off season. Again, the in system talent isn't very good.

Not my list but I agree that the OBP problem is largely solved by players coming and going. OBP is obviously important and we should see significant improvements from Crawford and then some combination of Quinn, Cozens, and Hoskins. Williams and Alfaro are less strong in OBP so they need to be higher average hitters with power. They still could lead to improvement though if they are replacing guys like Bourjos with something a bit better.

I disagree with assertions that the Phillies do not emphasize strike zone discipline in the minors. The larger problem is that our offensive prospects in the last 5 years have generally not been that good. The pipeline coming in is full of better players and that is important. We need a lineup with a balance of stronger OBP players with players with more power. If we can have both - great - but getting at least one of those from most players is important. Baseball Prospectus had an interesting article last year on the changes that Tampa has gone through in the past year in terms of aggressiveness. They advocated a more aggressive approach than they had in the past based upon their own internal advanced data. We can have a good lineup that balances high OBP players like Crawford with more aggressive players like Williams.

Article that references the BP piece (which is in print, not online)
draysbay.com/2016/2/9/109509 ... prospectus

I'm with you on the the Phillies stressing strike zone discipline in the system. We've heard about it being done and with success in some cases. However with some players, it seems like that message isn't getting across. We don't know the reason for that but I'd be surprised if the organization continued to go with a player who defied suggestions to exercise patience at the plate. For that reason, what we have here in town could be some players who either can't or won't get on board with that program. In either case, such players might well be out of here over the winter. There shouldn't be one position player on the current Phillies roster who isn't available for fair return. The only player on this squad that made the AS team was a guy who really was selected because each team had to have a representative. At this point in their careers, these players aren't that good.

[andyb]

I'm with you on the the Phillies stressing strike zone discipline in the system. We've heard about it being done and with success in some cases. However with some players, it seems like that message isn't getting across. We don't know the reason for that but I'd be surprised if the organization continued to go with a player who defied suggestions to exercise patience at the plate. For that reason, what we have here in town could be some players who either can't or won't get on board with that program. In either case, such players might well be out of here over the winter. There shouldn't be one position player on the current Phillies roster who isn't available for fair return. The only player on this squad that made the AS team was a guy who really was selected because each team had to have a representative. At this point in their careers, these players aren't that good.

Bigger problem is really that the young players on the major league roster are the product of a period where we had limited investments in the draft and internationally. This is the period BEFORE we drafted Crawford which is really a dividing line in terms of the nadir of the system. The position players we developed were just not that good. Franco is fantastic value for his $100K bonus and he probably does not develop his power without his aggressiveness. All the "arm bar" stuff in his swing is just as much about his overall talent level. Galvis was always a defense-first signing. And we traded some offensive guys like Santana and Singleton and D'Arnaud that did have some plate discipline.

Counting the trades from this period we just did not graduate a whole lot of talent to the Phillies major league roster. That is a big reason why the future players look to have a better OBP. They are more talented.

[VoteForKalas]

That will be true only if the replacements are significantly better in OBP.

I think Julio is mostly on target that roster turnover and more of the youth coming up could help improve things.

Where I would diverge is in expecting the youth to duplicate or improve on the OBP they've posted at lower levels here at the ML level. I could see some of them that have consistent track records like Crawford doing it, but we are still going to need the Abreu and Thome types brought in to help lead the way and plug holes IMO. Those guys are likely more available via trade than FA now and thus we'll need to use prospects to land them.

I hope people are right that the Phillies are stressing plate and strike zone discipline throughout the entire system - I do not see much evidence of that at the ML level, but I fully realize I do not follow the minors as much as others here and thus am willing to take their word for it.

I also agree talent is a big part of it and the talent & depth throughout the system is better now than it was and that it will take time for it to work up to the ML level.

[Austinfan]

Stassi isn't talented, but he is disciplined, and that's helped him end the season with around the tenth best OPS in the International league.
Whereas Perkins is probably more talented, same with Hunter, but their lack of discipline may limit their ceiling to AAAA players.

Williams is an example of talent without discipline, supposedly he has very good bat speed, but he gets himself out.
France is an example of talent handicapped by overeagerness, he doesn't need to swing hard to generate power, he just tries to do too much and pulls everything instead of just hitting balls where they're pitched and laying off bad pitches.

I think in the future, in all aspects, LA, draft and trades, the emphasis on "baseball players," guys who have high baseball IQs, discipline and are coachable will be prioritized to a greater extent - it's already started in the draft the last couple years, but I think it will be extended, failures with both athletes and talented but erratic players is driving that point home.

[julio]

...we are still going to need the Abreu and Thome types brought in to help lead the way and plug holes IMO.

If we can find an organization willing to trade us an outfield prospect equivalent to Bobby Abreu at the time the Astros declined to protect him in the expansion draft, and the Rays were willing to trade him for Kevin Stocker... well, we need to make a deal with that organization - and I'm not sure there is a single player in our organization I would be unwilling to trade for that prospect (maybe Crawford).

You talk about on-base percentage? Bobby Abreu's OBP in his nine seasons in Philadelphia? .416. That's not a typo. And about 20 HR/year, close to 40 2B/year. An OPS+ of 139 - over NINE YEARS. This is arguably the best RF in the history of the franchise - and we got him for Kevin Stocker.

...and the thing is, those of us who dabbled in real analytics way back then pretty much understood what Abreu could be. It's not as if he just appeared out of nowhere, to those of us who bothered to follow the minors. This was a steal, and we knew it the day it went down.

Lee Thomas made the deal, at the insistence of Ed Wade (of all people). Easily Wade's best insight in his entire career.

Of course, what the above really means is that the Phils aren't going to just "find" a Bobby Abreu to plop into the outfield. That kind of thing doesn't happen often.

[andyb]

Abreu and Thome are in different categories. Thome was the guy to plug a hole and spend whatever it takes.

Not sure there is the right Thome type in this year's free agent market. I threw his name out in a post or two and did not get much comment - but what do people think of Josh Reddick? It is possible his value is depressed a bit playing in LA. Only a 734 OPS this year but remember he played in Oakland (another poor offensive environment) and put together this sequence of OPS years: 768, 686, 762, 782. This year he was 817 in Oakland but only 527 in LA. I don't buy the fact that he can't play in the NL. He is 29 so a free agent contract would be years 30-33/34 for 4/5 years. Defense is average. Nothing special but not a problem. And he might sign for a bit less considering his second half swoon.

He might cost $20+ million a year but he is a pretty consistent 3 WAR player. He could also be the type of guy that solidifies a lineup and takes pressure off everyone else. Thoughts? We have the money and we still would have enough for a top starter and some bullpen help. No compensation also because he was traded this year.

[allentown]

I'm with you on the the Phillies stressing strike zone discipline in the system. We've heard about it being done and with success in some cases. However with some players, it seems like that message isn't getting across. We don't know the reason for that but I'd be surprised if the organization continued to go with a player who defied suggestions to exercise patience at the plate. For that reason, what we have here in town could be some players who either can't or won't get on board with that program. In either case, such players might well be out of here over the winter. There shouldn't be one position player on the current Phillies roster who isn't available for fair return. The only player on this squad that made the AS team was a guy who really was selected because each team had to have a representative. At this point in their careers, these players aren't that good.

Bigger problem is really that the young players on the major league roster are the product of a period where we had limited investments in the draft and internationally. This is the period BEFORE we drafted Crawford which is really a dividing line in terms of the nadir of the system. The position players we developed were just not that good. Franco is fantastic value for his $100K bonus and he probably does not develop his power without his aggressiveness. All the "arm bar" stuff in his swing is just as much about his overall talent level. Galvis was always a defense-first signing. And we traded some offensive guys like Santana and Singleton and D'Arnaud that did have some plate discipline.

Counting the trades from this period we just did not graduate a whole lot of talent to the Phillies major league roster. That is a big reason why the future players look to have a better OBP. They are more talented.

And, as the above list shows, the players we have chosen to add to the MLB roster from outside the organization
over the past year -- Bourjos and Paredes -- do not have good OBP, so if the Phillies actually do value OBP, why add these guys?

I've not given up on Williams, but I don't know what to make of him. When I saw him at Reading at the end of last season, he looked great. When I saw him earlier this year in Allentown, he looked reasonably good with the bat. The last two months his hitting has been crap. He still has power. Last night was a totally still night in Allentown and the one ball he hit well would have hit the base of the fence at the 400 sign. But, other AB he was taking called strikes at waist level and then swinging at pitches at his ankles or lower. He swung at a pitch that bounced in front of the plate. He looked totally messed up. He had his one long ball and 3 Ks, with all the Ks coming on truly nasty ABs. At recent games I have seen him hitting almost exclusively against LHP. That makes him look worse than he actually is, but he wasn't this bad earlier in the year. To give one truly chilling stat: For August and September, including last night's playoff game Williams has only 1 walk against 46 Ks in 120 AB -- who does that badly? And it's not low walks because he's getting a lot of hits, he's below .200 over that time. He didn't walk a ton earlier in the year, but he walked a whole lot more than this. He also wasn't striking out in 40% of his AB. Something has seriously changed for the worse. That is where the loss of Ruf really hurts Williams and Allentown. Teams stack LHP against Allentown. Having Crawford-Williams hit 2-3 makes the situation worse.

[julio]

Thome was the guy to plug a hole and spend whatever it takes.

Nothing against Jim Thome...but his signing by the Phillies was as much (or more) for PR value - for show -as for any real attempt to be competitive.

[mdougherty12]

I'm with you on the the Phillies stressing strike zone discipline in the system. We've heard about it being done and with success in some cases. However with some players, it seems like that message isn't getting across. We don't know the reason for that but I'd be surprised if the organization continued to go with a player who defied suggestions to exercise patience at the plate. For that reason, what we have here in town could be some players who either can't or won't get on board with that program. In either case, such players might well be out of here over the winter. There shouldn't be one position player on the current Phillies roster who isn't available for fair return. The only player on this squad that made the AS team was a guy who really was selected because each team had to have a representative. At this point in their careers, these players aren't that good.

Bigger problem is really that the young players on the major league roster are the product of a period where we had limited investments in the draft and internationally. This is the period BEFORE we drafted Crawford which is really a dividing line in terms of the nadir of the system. The position players we developed were just not that good. Franco is fantastic value for his $100K bonus and he probably does not develop his power without his aggressiveness. All the "arm bar" stuff in his swing is just as much about his overall talent level. Galvis was always a defense-first signing. And we traded some offensive guys like Santana and Singleton and D'Arnaud that did have some plate discipline.

Counting the trades from this period we just did not graduate a whole lot of talent to the Phillies major league roster. That is a big reason why the future players look to have a better OBP. They are more talented.

And, as the above list shows, the players we have chosen to add to the MLB roster from outside the organization
over the past year -- Bourjos and Paredes -- do not have good OBP, so if the Phillies actually do value OBP, why add these guys?

On-base skills generally aren't available when you're shopping in the bargain bin.

Sent from my XT1053 using Tapatalk

[mdougherty12]

Abreu and Thome are in different categories. Thome was the guy to plug a hole and spend whatever it takes.

Not sure there is the right Thome type in this year's free agent market. I threw his name out in a post or two and did not get much comment - but what do people think of Josh Reddick? It is possible his value is depressed a bit playing in LA. Only a 734 OPS this year but remember he played in Oakland (another poor offensive environment) and put together this sequence of OPS years: 768, 686, 762, 782. This year he was 817 in Oakland but only 527 in LA. I don't buy the fact that he can't play in the NL. He is 29 so a free agent contract would be years 30-33/34 for 4/5 years. Defense is average. Nothing special but not a problem. And he might sign for a bit less considering his second half swoon.

He might cost $20+ million a year but he is a pretty consistent 3 WAR player. He could also be the type of guy that solidifies a lineup and takes pressure off everyone else. Thoughts? We have the money and we still would have enough for a top starter and some bullpen help. No compensation also because he was traded this year.

Reddick's not bad, but he's not all that good either. He should probably be platooned, but he's likely going to be paid too much to be a platoon player.

I'm also not sure I'd want to sign up for the early 30s of a guy who has had a lot of trouble staying on the field in his 20s.

Sent from my XT1053 using Tapatalk

[zambonir]

I can't find it now, but I saw someone tweet that Franco has the lowest OPS for a 3B in all of MLB (among starters). Seems to be true, on Fangraphs he is 26th in wOBA and 24th in WAR.

[BostonRoss]

I can't find it now, but I saw someone tweet that Franco has the lowest OPS for a 3B in all of MLB (among starters). Seems to be true, on Fangraphs he is 26th in wOBA and 24th in WAR.

It does seem to be true:

espn.com/mlb/stats/batting/_ ... order/true

[LoneStarPhan]

...and the Phillies fail again to add available talent from a non-traditional source.

Mets beat Phillies to the Punch Yet Again

[donaldorc]

Thome was the guy to plug a hole and spend whatever it takes.

Nothing against Jim Thome...but his signing by the Phillies was as much (or more) for PR value - for show -as for any real attempt to be competitive.

Yes, and to get the momentum going for the new ball park.

[Slinging_Southpaw]

Abreu and Thome are in different categories. Thome was the guy to plug a hole and spend whatever it takes.

Not sure there is the right Thome type in this year's free agent market. I threw his name out in a post or two and did not get much comment - but what do people think of Josh Reddick? It is possible his value is depressed a bit playing in LA. Only a 734 OPS this year but remember he played in Oakland (another poor offensive environment) and put together this sequence of OPS years: 768, 686, 762, 782. This year he was 817 in Oakland but only 527 in LA. I don't buy the fact that he can't play in the NL. He is 29 so a free agent contract would be years 30-33/34 for 4/5 years. Defense is average. Nothing special but not a problem. And he might sign for a bit less considering his second half swoon.

He might cost $20+ million a year but he is a pretty consistent 3 WAR player. He could also be the type of guy that solidifies a lineup and takes pressure off everyone else. Thoughts? We have the money and we still would have enough for a top starter and some bullpen help. No compensation also because he was traded this year.

Reddick's not bad, but he's not all that good either. He should probably be platooned, but he's likely going to be paid too much to be a platoon player.

I'm also not sure I'd want to sign up for the early 30s of a guy who has had a lot of trouble staying on the field in his 20s.

Sent from my XT1053 using Tapatalk

I don't see a good fit at all on the free agent market.

[mdougherty12]

Abreu and Thome are in different categories. Thome was the guy to plug a hole and spend whatever it takes.

Not sure there is the right Thome type in this year's free agent market. I threw his name out in a post or two and did not get much comment - but what do people think of Josh Reddick? It is possible his value is depressed a bit playing in LA. Only a 734 OPS this year but remember he played in Oakland (another poor offensive environment) and put together this sequence of OPS years: 768, 686, 762, 782. This year he was 817 in Oakland but only 527 in LA. I don't buy the fact that he can't play in the NL. He is 29 so a free agent contract would be years 30-33/34 for 4/5 years. Defense is average. Nothing special but not a problem. And he might sign for a bit less considering his second half swoon.

He might cost $20+ million a year but he is a pretty consistent 3 WAR player. He could also be the type of guy that solidifies a lineup and takes pressure off everyone else. Thoughts? We have the money and we still would have enough for a top starter and some bullpen help. No compensation also because he was traded this year.

Reddick's not bad, but he's not all that good either. He should probably be platooned, but he's likely going to be paid too much to be a platoon player.

I'm also not sure I'd want to sign up for the early 30s of a guy who has had a lot of trouble staying on the field in his 20s.

Sent from my XT1053 using Tapatalk

I don't see a good fit at all on the free agent market.

I'd think about kicking the tires on Jon Jay as a 1 year stopgap.

It would be nice if they could find the next J.D. Martinez on the waiver wire.

Sent from my XT1053 using Tapatalk