Phillies 2025-2026 Hot Stove Discussion

xyzabc25 2025-10-16 16:26:54 UTC #101

I've read recently ideas about upgrading the catcher position. One, suggested re-signing J.T. to a 2-yr deal and finding his long-term replacement during next offseason. The other brings in his replacement this offseason, in which case J.T. is not resigned. Here are the deals:
A. J. T. re-signs for 2 yrs during Catcher search begins now. Top trade target Hunter Goodman, Colorado Rockies, age 26, 4.2 WAR in 2025 Right-Handed hitter with 31 HR. Cost not stipulated beyond "major prospects." Other candidates were Harry Ford Seattle and Denny Jensen Milwaukee, neither close to Goodman's productivity.

B. Trade now for Adley Rutschman, Baltimore Orioles, age 27, WAR 1.2 in down year, career WAR 14 (4 seasons). Baltimore recently signed young Cather Samuel Basallo to a $67m contact in August. Baltimore gets: Gage Wood RHP #4, Moises Chace RHP #8, and Jean Cabrea RHP #11.

Goodman is the better player, but I'd give serious consideration to either approach. We need to get younger.

zambonir 2025-10-16 16:57:14 UTC #102

The whispers was that one podcast where Ruben Amaro said it, I don't know if there is much to it but he clearly has not been able to manage a chronic condition. Still, even though it's true that he rarely makes it through a full season (or even starts one), he put up 4.7 WAR this year and is pretty much a sure thing for 2.0 WAR every year. That got Taijuan Walker $18 million AAV a few years ago (and he actually deliverd, for all of one season). Max Fried (another lefty) was constantly injured. A a bit of a higher-end pitcher than Ranger in his prime but he's paid that way too, still a lot of room below that for Ranger.

phillychuck 2025-10-16 17:06:22 UTC #103

I want Ranger back; he’s probably my favorite pitcher on this year’s team. I love the way he can go on streaks of domination while rarely throwing above 93 mph, and I love the athletic way he fields his position. I don’t know if they can afford him, but you never have too much starting pitching depth.

Last year was the best year ever for his change-up in runs above average, and his curve was even better. His 4-seam FB was his only negative pitch, and it was close to neutral. I’d expect him to be a plus pitcher for the next 3-4 years and I’d pay him that way.

Philsmania 2025-10-16 17:13:22 UTC #104

zambonir:

Spending money is what would have extended the window of the 2012 team. Keep Pence, either bring back Vic (who had one great year and a championship to come) or replace him with someone better than Ben Revere, no Michael Youngs or Delmon Youngs or John Lannans to fill holes cheaply. Papelbon wasn't actually a bad signing and Brown put up a 3.2 WAR in 2013. Even recommitting to the core was not a disaster, at all - other than Howard, whose ship had already sailed in 2011 while already under contract. We should be so lucky if JT does as well as Chooch did, or to have any 35-year old position players as good as Utley and Rollins were in 2014 (Utley was also great in 2013, Jimmy less so).

If they had made moves like Marlon Byrd and AJ Burnett in 2012 and 2013 instead of 2014 when it was over, they might have done better too. Clearly the Dodgers are the gold standard and it's not just about money, but the money helps.

Some good points there. In hindsight, they should have extended Pence and Victorino. They would have needed to replace Halladay though and Howard though it was hard to see that he would be completely washed up after that. Papelbon was who they signed when the pivoted from Madson and he held up his end of things (he is the Phillies all-time saves leader) and that turned out to be the better move in hindsight since Madson pulled up lame the following spring and didn't appear in a ML game again until 2015. Regardless, I think in a best case scenario, they might have been able to squeeze in one last good season and maybe even a WC in 2013. But, by 2014, decline would have been inevitable and by 2015, they would have needed to bite the bullet on a rebuild.

zambonir 2025-10-16 18:42:19 UTC #105

Ranger isn't just my favorite pitcher, he's my favorite player. And Luzardo might be right behind him, which may yet turn out to be a choice. I'm just not that into our collection of bros, though Bader won me over when I read about his taste in art.

But I think I would still rather have Alex Bregman than Ranger, in terms of improving the team overall.

We will learn a lot about how they viewed this past season and their philosophy with the moves. Emphasizing starting pitchers certainly worked for us, and the Dodgers, and yet it still feels like the offense and bullpen was the problem in October. Which is also more of the random thing. And what about defense?

For sure but they didn't really bite the bullet until 2015 anyway (that's when Cole and Chase got traded. They moved Jimmy sooner, which got them a better return, because Freddy was in the wings).

andyb 2025-10-16 18:55:10 UTC #106

I really don't know what to make of him. Could be a buy low candidate. Could be another catcher who peaked early before the demands of the position robbed him of his athleticism (which might permanently impact his hitting).

David_Criss 2025-10-16 20:58:17 UTC #107

Didn't the Phillies offer realmuto a qualifying offer? If so, I'd bet he is back in Philadelphia next season. Can't see anyone paying an aging catcher more than that. I certainly wouldn't commit more than that in AAv for a multi year deal. Before the QO I was thinking 2/30 for him. Marchan can grow into his own and I think could be a darn good fairly every day catcher.

If not Rutschman, Harry Ford in Seattle is available and they need a 3B.............Would take more than 1 year of Bohm I am certain for Ford, but I'd look long and hard at something like that or even if JT only returns for 1 year.

andyb 2025-10-16 21:18:56 UTC #108

I'd explore a Ford deal definitely, especially if it is Bohm and a lesser piece/prospect. He seems ready after a decent AAA season and is completely blocked. Second piece maybe someone like McGarry who has a little helium in his trade value these days.

mdougherty12 2025-10-16 21:28:31 UTC #109

Realmuto is ineligible for a qualifying offer this off-season because they gave him one the last time he hit free agency.

andyb 2025-10-16 21:40:55 UTC #110

Schwarber and Suarez will get QOs. Unfortunately compensation is only a pick after the 4th round these days for competitive balance tax payers.

zambonir 2025-10-16 21:42:12 UTC #111

Dombrowski had his press conference today. Described the IF as being pretty much set which is probably just good politics. Has interest in bringing back all the major FAs (which is to say Bader and Ranger as well as JT and Kyle). Per Zolecki Kepler, Romano (duh), Robertson and Buehler probably gone. Alvarado will have his option picked up.

Regarding Castellanos it was like, "we'll see," but not hard to assume what will happen there. And he said payroll will likely be higher. Just not $400 million.

zambonir 2025-10-16 21:49:36 UTC #112

And ICYMI all the coaches will be back, though Calitri is moving over to fielding, there will be a new hire for bench coach.

mdougherty12 2025-10-16 22:30:43 UTC #113

It sounds like Harry Ford's defense behind the plate is pretty bad:

fish 2025-10-17 00:24:08 UTC #114

David Murphy name dropped Japanese 1B (who’s had some reps in the outfield) Kazuma Okamoto as someone they’d look into when he’s posted. He wasn’t on my radar but he’s a legitimate power hitter with good underlying hitting stats- I’d love to see that addition. Had an elbow injury last year so I’m not sure he’s suited for right where they’d need him the most.

julio 2025-10-17 00:34:40 UTC #115

Nobody has offered anybody a qualifying offer as yet. That occurs during the first five days after the end of the World Series.

As mdougherty12 noted, the Phillies will not be making a Qualifying Offer to JT Realmuto, because they cannot. Suarez, Schwarber, will get QOs, probably nobody else. (Kepler and Romano are technically eligible, but...)

allentown 2025-10-17 00:59:42 UTC #116

If Robert is the answer, then the question was wrong. He has OPS+ of 86 and 85 the past two seasons. He would be a downgrade from what we already have. He still is plus defensively. On the other hand, Cruz had an OPS+ of 87 this year and is not a plus fielder.

zambonir 2025-10-17 03:32:16 UTC #117

Nick will be traded or released, Gelb says, citing club sources. He thinks they might still bring Bader back. I understand the interest in Robert. He's been bad on a bad team but he's still only 28 and it's hard not wonder if you can keep him healthy and find the guy who did what he did when he was 25. He might have more upside than Bader, and he's a RHB and CF.

Problem, as outlined below, is Crawford and Marsh don't complement each other.

The whole outfield puzzle would be so much easier to solve if the Phillies were convinced Crawford could play an average big-league center field, and that is not something they believe. Many rival evaluators agree; Crawford is better in left field. He might rate below Brandon Marsh in center right now, although there is more upside with Crawford. He could grow into a better defender.

His offensive skill set is tailored for center field. The Phillies might have to close their eyes and let it happen. If Crawford can play center, that would allow them to treat Marsh like a strong-side platoon player in one of the corner outfield spots. The Phillies have wished he’d be an everyday center fielder. That is probably not what he is.

andyb 2025-10-17 13:04:32 UTC #118

But that needs to be stated in context. He is a career 111 OPS+ and will only be 28 this season. So if he can be a free agent at a discount there is a strong chance at that age with better coaching and environment for him to post something closer to his career numbers.

We actually DON'T have anything better. Bader was better last year but has a career OPS of 96. 86 in 2024. 69 in 2023. And he is 3.5 years older. Marsh had a 577 OPS against LHP and is average or below in CF. We really don't have anything better than Robert at the moment and my hypothetical was for Robert to be LESS expensive than Bader off his career year. If that is the choice I go with Robert the far younger player.

andyb 2025-10-17 13:15:47 UTC #119

If that article is an accurate picture of where DD is then I am mostly in full agreement with him. Crawford in CF makes the other pieces fall into place and I might be willing to let him grow into the position if the scouts think he can. Marsh was actually below average in CF this year though in the past he has been closer to average. I don't think the defensive bar for Crawford to cross to be better than Marsh is that high. Obviously he is not Bader or even Robert there, but I think Crawford can be average.

And the other thing about Crawford is that he may profile as a full time player and NOT just a platoon player. Reverse splits last year (admittedly SSS against LHP). Crawford's game is speed and bunting (and yes too many ground balls) but that game actually translates well against LHP since he has a good idea of the strike zone.

DD also mentions Kemp in the same vein that I do. I think he is awful defensively but a decent right-handed bat that has power. I just don't think he is much worse than Bohm so letting him and Sosa man the position and using Bohm in a deal for something else really has merit. And his advanced age means we get his age 27 career peak now when he is cheap. Not sure about the Harry Ford stuff but I kind of love that type of trade where both teams fill a need.

Austinfan 2025-10-17 13:30:57 UTC #120

Unfortunately, when a player takes a nosedive like Roberts, it's more likely a flaw the league pitchers have discovered.
Bounce back candidates tend to be injury riddled players who get healthy.