Phillies 2025-2026 Hot Stove Discussion

[zambonir]

Too soon? Reverse jinx? Whatever happens next, this is really the only correct thread for this information.

Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2026

Jesus Luzardo (5.165): $10.4MM
Edmundo Sosa (5.140): $3.9MM
Alec Bohm (5.106): $10.3MM
Garrett Stubbs (4.148): $925K
Brandon Marsh (4.078): $4.5MM
Jhoan Duran (4.000): $7.6MM
Bryson Stott (4.000): $5.8MM
Tanner Banks (3.092): $1.2MM
Rafael Marchan (3.006): $1MM

[andyb]

Voting is 51.7% No on this at the moment.

Poll: Will The Phillies Exercise Jose Alvarado's Option?

[zambonir]

I still think it is probably as good a use of that $8.5 million as anything/anyone. It really depends on the thing we don't know, what they really thought about his mistake (or "mistake") and what kind of pitcher they think he can still be.

I guess the clarifying question for me is, would you have picked it up last year? Same money but it was already guaranteed. The answer might have been no, and if it was, maybe it is now too. The way he pitched pre-suspension is hard to rate.

But then we'll go out and get someone else and watch Jose have a decent season somewhere else like Seranthony and Soto did (though Soto really helped sink the Mets, he came in there with a 0.4 WAR and finished -0.1. Mostly bad BABIP luck).

[EDmuch]

They have got to find a RH hitter with some power to slot between Harper and Schwarber. Having them back to back just does not work when they get to post season and other teams can stack lefties against them. They were never able to find a Hoskins replacement and it is now painfully clear that Castellanos is not that guy. Casty should get moved for whatever they can get for him. But who that RH bat is I don't know. Perhaps an outfielder. Perhaps a 3b. But they have to find someone to slot between the 2 big left handed power hitters. It does not have to be a 30 home run guy. But someone who can at least hit 22-25 home runs with decent contact skills.

[EDmuch]

Taylor Ward, Joe Adell and Brent Rooker pop up among RH power hitters this year

[EDmuch]

Also Randy Arozarena and Yandy Diaz.

[allentown]

They have got to find a RH hitter with some power to slot between Harper and Schwarber. Having them back to back just does not work when they get to post season and other teams can stack lefties against them.

Doesn't have to be a RH power hitter. There are only so many $ we can expect Middleton to spend. Scwarber likes to bat leadoff. Schwarber-Turner-Harper. I don't see the team paying what it will take to bring back Schwarber ($100 mill/3 years would be what it takes if he really wants to stay in Philly -- if he wants top $, I doubt you get him for that) and pay what it will take to sign a RH power bat. The best we could afford as a RH power bat is approx 15-20 HR max from Bader or Bohm.

Also need a RH bat between Harper and Marsh. Not Castellanos or J.T. going forward. Bohm or Sosa?

[EDmuch]

I am somewhat surprised that during the year they never really tried hitting Turner between Schwarber and Harper. I guess they were really committed to getting Turner to think like a leadoff hitter.

[zambonir]

I think we can expect to Middleton (and his four ownership partners, up for one) to spend more. If he wanted to reset the tax thresholds that would be completely reasonable, but if they aren't going to do that and will once again be paying the top rate and dropping 10 picks in the draft - that is definitely going to be the case this year right? A small bright side to losing this early - after that it is only money. And dropping back to a wild card spot or once again failing to get to the NLCS also costs you money.

All that's really needed this year is to spend in the off-season like they did at the deadline. Certainly they could be conservative and budget for the latter - an OF if Crawford isn't the answer, an SP if Wheeler isn't right - but imagine if they'd just gotten the closer and third OF right in the first place? Sometimes that's money, sometimes that's picking the right guys (and sometimes luck, of course).

[bkox]

This time the Phillies can’t run it back

[zambonir]

A Stark piece. Was interesting. Nothing we haven't all thought though (trade Casty, Marsh and Bohm not untouchable, Stott neither, Crawford in the mix in '26 at some point and Miller in '27. And Marsh and Crawford redundant players possibly).

He also thinks JT might get the same money which might make it harder for the Phillies to swallow. And that Thomson isn't going anywhere.

> How unusual is it for a team to keep bringing back the same stars, for two, three and now four years, without winning a World Series? In the wild-card era (1995-present), there’s basically no precedent for it.

This just became the fourth season in a row that the Phillies reached the postseason while getting at least 400 plate appearances per year from the same six players: Harper, Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, Alec Bohm, Nick Castellanos and Bryson Stott. You know how many other franchises in this era have had a streak like that? Exactly one.

That team was the 1998-2001 Yankees — who actually managed to do that with the same seven hitters: Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, Bernie Williams, Paul O’Neill, Tino Martinez, Scott Brosius and Chuck Knoblauch.

[bkox]

I will say that Im pretty good at baseball trivia and if you had asked me the 7 players.. Knoblauch and Brosius would have never came to mind

[zambonir]

I guess because they are both also remembered from their previous teams. They and Tino weren't homegrown. Neither was O'Neill but he was there so long, and a New Yorker.

Knoblauch I remember more for their end.

Makes me wonder how our 2007-2011 teams compare.

[allentown]

I don't see a need to move Kerkering, unless management fears his psyche is such that he'll melt down under some boos. His error let in the winning run, but I thought the turning point which lost the game was the dual blunder of our manager deciding to walk a slumping star to load the bases and our closer walking in a run. Without that, the Phillies win in 9 innings. Duran shouldn't have thrown ball 4, but Thompson really increased the pressure on him. It wasn't as if the lesser hitters in the Dodger's line-up were totally ineffective. The slumping star is likely pressing and an easier mark.

I think Stark is off-base on lauding that 2026 rotation. Wheeler may never pitch again, we may not see the old Nola, and Painter is a good bet, but iffy. Likely neither Wheeler nor Painter start the season in Philly, so two SPs short. .

[fish]

I’m open to them getting as creative as they think they need to be to reset the course, nobody HAS to return. As more and more arms throw 100, an aging lineup becomes more and more of a detriment.

I wish Kerkering the best, but he already showed problems with letting big moments get the better of him. It would be an uphill battle to get him over in Philly what just happened. He has value- flip him for another good bullpen arm. Same for Bohm- he should be able to get a good bullpen arm back now, and slide Miller into 3rd.

[zambonir]

You really think a 21 year-old with almost no AAA ABs is ready to be the starting 3B on this team? Whether it's Kingery, Rojas or Haseley coming up too early or Bohm and Stott all going back to AAA after their first time in the bigs it never seems to go well. And a line-up with no Bohm, Miller and Crawford's likely rookie-level production will be thinner than ever, though they can put the Bohm/Kepler money towards someone if it's not Bader.

(You still didn't correct me correctly @julio)

[andyb]

Miller is clearly not ready, but that does not mean that Bohm is not a very movable trade piece since he has only one year of control left. A platoon with Kemp and a left-handed bat (maybe more of a defensive player) would not be the worst thing if you were pretty sure Miller would claim a job in a year or two.

Remember we trade Bohm to free salary space AND get something back (prospects or players). We are not saying Bohm is not a decent player. He is (though maybe overrated by his offense when balanced with his defense). He is just an easy to trade player with value and no long term salary commitments. We can trade Casty too, but that ain't going to be easy.

[zambonir]

Oh I agree with that, no idea who the LHB is, but both Kemp and Sosa are viable short platoons at 3B (if they're ready to play Stott every day, in Sosa's case). Question is really what they are willing to accept for Bohm, since they couldn't get anyone to bite last year.

I don't think it will be that hard to trade Casty, it just won't be for much, or even much salary relief. But if there's a clear plan without him and/or he wants out rather than playing part-time, you get it done. After you re-sign Schwarbs.

[andyb]

no idea who the LHB is,

The free agent market has a couple of low cost options in Yoan Moncada and Luis Rengifo. The more expensive roll the dice option is from Japan -.Munetaka Murakami. 2-time MVP in Japan who was hurt half of last year but OPS'd over 1000 when healthy. Question on him is whether he is more of a 1B than a 3B but 3B is his primary position in Japan and he'll only be 26 next season.

Previewing The 2025-26 Free Agent Class: Third Base

Not saying we have to do this - but there are options even before the trade market. Murakami is mentioned in article below with the Phillies but to replace Schwarber and not Bohm.

https://www.mlb.com/news/munetaka-murakami-market-mlb

[MichaelJackSchmidt]

I have been thinking about this stat:
Team Chase% ranking among 2025 NL postseason teams:
1. Brewers 25.5
2. Dodgers 26.1
3. Reds 26.7
4. Cubs 29.0
5. Padres 29.6
6. Phillies 30.3

Phillies:
1 | Kyle Schwarber | 21.5 %
2 | Bryson Stott | 23.3 %
3 | Alec Bohm | 26.3 %
4 | Max Kepler | 26.6 %
5 | Brandon Marsh | 29.0 %
6 | Trea Turner | 31.0 %
7 | J.T. Realmuto | 32.3 %
8 | Bryce Harper | 35.6 %
9 | Nick Castellanos | 40.9 %

Signing Schwarber would be my preference, and finding someone else for Casty, but there can't be much more they do to improve 6 through 8.