Phillies 2025-2026 Hot Stove Discussion

[zambonir]

Every dollar counts. You are probably already giving Schwarber every $ of Kepler's salary. That $5 million could be the difference between bringing back Bader (even if it's only money they get for one year) versus an Austin Hays. Or signing a $20 million player versus a $15 million player, if they're playing in that range.

I think it is assumed that the Sox would have traded Robert at the deadline if they weren't going to pick up his option. But, they are also very dumb.

I would be very surprised if they don't extend him. Teams--either pro or college--are generally loathe to have a manager or head coach on the last year of a contract as it is seen as a source of insecurity or a potential distraction if the team hits a difficult stretch.

Yes, that is the conventional wisdom, but it's also pretty meaningless because those tack-ons have never stopped a manager from still getting fired.

But like I said, it could be just as motivating for these guys to think, "we have to step it up or Topper is going to be replaced by Larry Bowa (not really him)." And it seems unlikely this particular group of players would cease to see Rob as an authority figure just because he was a lame duck. Except for Casty but he's already there.

[VoteForKalas]

Unfortunately, the Phillies made their lives harder by deciding not to make necessary changes to the roster last offseason.

They may have to do the retool over two offseasons to get it fully done, but hopefully everyone in the ownership and management all acknowledge reality now and understand they need to change direction and be a lot more aggressive, creative and purposeful in how they put together the roster.

The positions that need to be upgraded are LF, RF, CF, pen (RH) and either 2B, 3B or C.

Harper is at 1B in any realistic scenario. RF is not an option for him at his age and with his injury history.

Turner the same at SS. I do not see a corner OF spot working for him or the team nor do I see 3B as realistic unless playing Miller at SS is the only option.

Wheeler, Sanchez, Luzardo & Nola are all staying unless Luzardo & the Phillies cannot work it out. We'll have to pray Wheeler can come back and be even close to what he was prior to the issue.

Suarez, Schwarber, Bader and JT are the FA. Unfortunately, Suarez is gone due to a numbers game. Schwarber will be the target for the Phillies. JT will depend on what the market is for a 35 yr old C with diminishing offense.

Marchan or Stubbs at C is a downgrade, but I would not go beyond 2 yrs with JT and he would need to take a pay cut from $24M per. Phillies need to get a plan in place at C this off-season.

Harper - ? - Turner - Miller - JT/Marchan would be the IF with Sosa as the super sub.

Tucker - Rojas/Marsh - Crawford is the OF

Sanchez - Luzardo - Nola - Wheeler - Painter would be the rotation

Duran - Strahm - Banks - Kerkering - ? - ? would be the pen. At least one of those ? should be a good RH who handle the later innings. I would not have a designated closer; I would do it by committee like we did in 2022 which maximizes optionality for Topper.

Schwarber stays at DH. Casty & Walker are traded even if we have to eat money. Bohm, Stott, Marsh and anyone besides Miller, Crawford or Painter are the trade chips.

[flyers19rw]

In all honesty how big is the market for Harrison Bader? He had the greatest run of his career in Philly after he was acquired at the deadline. Before that he was a journeyman player knocking around from team to team. Perhaps I’m wrong but I don’t see many clubs being willing to offer him 3X15-20M. If there are he’s a fortunate guy.

[EDmuch]

Tucker is another LH bat. Makes lineup even more unbalanced.

[andyb]

Tucker is another LH bat. Makes lineup even more unbalanced.

Yeah. It seems Tucker should only be an option if Schwarber does not come back and that does not even approach the question of whether we need Schwarber's salary slot to pay for the RH bat we need.

[fish]

Yeah. It seems Tucker should only be an option if Schwarber does not

Tucker should only not be considered if you can acquire the right handed version of Tucker…and I’m guessing no one is trading that guy or combination of guys. I might apply that logic to Bellinger too.

[phillychuck]

If you are only going to the reduce the payroll by $5 million, unless he's viewed as a sunk cost who might otherwise be waived, what's the point?

He’s not happy here in his role; wouldn’t take much for him to be a locker room stink bomb.

[zambonir]

Dombrowski will get Nick traded for Nick's sake, as much as the Phillies sake. He loves the guy, which is why that $20 million is still on the books.

I think if the Phillies have the money for Tucker or Bellinger I'd be less worried about what side they bat from. But if you're trading Marsh or Stott you are probably acquiring a a new regular that way, not via FA, and ideally they are RH. Unless you are going after Bregman.

But I still don't know that this year's October result proves the roster was bad, or they didn't do the right thing running it back. They won one more game despite losing their best pitcher. They seemed to have a pretty good thing going with Bader defensively and as a marginal offensive upgrade, then they lost him too. They need that one big bat, but at the end of the day what they need is for Harper, Turner, and Schwarber to hit better. What we're seeing in the NLCS Is that it wasn't just our offense coming up small, the Dodgers' pitching actually was better than ours.

And they probably have to keep Walker. Otherwise they're not only paying some other team $12 million to have him but they have to spend another $5 million for a Joe Ross or Spencer Turnbull type.

Re: Bader, who knows, the market might work out for the Phillies. But CFs are still scarce. He could go back to being a 90 OPS+ player and still be worth $15 million for some team for two seasons, and if two teams think that he probably gets a third.

[Austinfan]

The key is don't get desperate like 2011 and end up like 2012.
That is, don't get older and more expensive, gamble a bit on kids and low cost additions, if they don't work, take a step back, if they do, great.
I mean look at the big bat for LA, it wasn't their big money guy.

JT or a good defensive catcher, it's not like JT did much after the Allstar break, he should be limited to 110 games if he returns and paid that way.
Harper stays at 1B, Stott/Sosa at 2B, Turner, Bohm (no need to make a move, Miller up this summer, Escobar next summer)
Crawford in LF, Bader? Rojas? Someone else? in CF, Marsh/??? in RF (better to trade Casty than platoon him).
Marchan, Kemp, ??? on the bench.

QO ranger, otherwise bring back the starters, extend Luzardo, Walker as #6.
Need to improve BP depth.

Unless Middleton wants to spend Met/Dodger money, no acquisition is going to move the needle, improvement will have to come internally or incrementally.

[zambonir]

Spending money is what would have extended the window of the 2012 team. Keep Pence, either bring back Vic (who had one great year and a championship to come) or replace him with someone better than Ben Revere, no Michael Youngs or Delmon Youngs or John Lannans to fill holes cheaply. Papelbon wasn't actually a bad signing and Brown put up a 3.2 WAR in 2013. Even recommitting to the core was not a disaster, at all - other than Howard, whose ship had already sailed in 2011 while already under contract. We should be so lucky if JT does as well as Chooch did, or to have any 35-year old position players as good as Utley and Rollins were in 2014 (Utley was also great in 2013, Jimmy less so).

If they had made moves like Marlon Byrd and AJ Burnett in 2012 and 2013 instead of 2014 when it was over, they might have done better too. Clearly the Dodgers are the gold standard and it's not just about money, but the money helps.

[Austinfan]

Money helps, but it's not like the Phillies haven't spent the last few years.
But Ohtani was worse than Schwarber, difference was guys down the lineup picked up the slack.
And Dodgers produce enough arms to overcome a plague of injuries.

The Phillies have to produce internally, whether it's McFarlane making a big jump to add depth, Nori bitting enough to play CF with plus defense, Miller becoming a star, Escobar solid IF depth. Still no catcher in the organization, or RH OF bat. This is the flaw, as much as they've spent, they have almost $200M in players over 30 (Wheeler, Nola, Walker, Strahm, Schwarber, Turner, Harper, JT, Casty). Aging curves don't care how much you spend.

[biggsphils]

drafting catchers in next years draft should be #1 priority ( college catchers)

[Philsmania]

If the information I get is correct, the QO this season will be $22.5 million. Does Suarez take it or is he likely to get more or less AAV but for several seasons?

[andyb]

The Phillies have to produce internally

You keep saying this but other than the obvious 3 or 4 prospects they don't have much down there. Spending money to keep the window open is still the right move with this core. That can be a combination of trades and free agents, but money is their advantage.

Your advice seems to be a fade into mediocrity if you don't want to spend money. It is just advice that this team will ignore. Everybody wants to develop good prospects. They just have to be good enough to win when you play them and our prospect depth is not close to there. Some of that is trades (without Duran the bullpen would have been a horror show). But some is just constantly overrating our mediocre prospects on your end. I want to play Crawford now, Painter in midseason, and Miller likely in 2027. And spend money around that thin prospect core.

[zambonir]

22.025M

I don't think he'll take it. Do Boras clients ever take it? Even if they sometimes get burned. He is already out there trying to get Alonso a seven-year deal, so I'm sure he's got a pretty grand ask for Ranger.

And I think Ranger can get more than 22.5 AAV. Sonny Gray makes $25M AAV and he was 33 years old when he signed that three-year deal. When you look at what Burnes, Snell and Fried got last year he should do just fine, even if he's not the brand name those guys were. Even with his injury history he can probably get five. Nola, of course, got seven (and $24M).

The x-factor is that Ranger wants to stay, but so did Ryan Madson (another whiff by Boras).

[phillychuck]

Another x-factor is Ranger’s history of not being able to pitch full seasons.

[Austinfan]

It's not my money. But at some point even rich people gag.
This isn't a decade ago, when the Phillies wouldn't spend on players worth the money.
Now they've gone to the opposite extreme, throwing money at older veterans who were overpaid the moment they signed.
Even the Mets couldn't make the playoffs despite spending a huge amount of money.
When most of that money is tied up in over 30 declining players, money can only help so much.

When you think you can buy your way out of every mistake, you don't work as hard to avoid mistakes.

[phillychuck]

I agree with AF here. They have to do the old “Ed Wade” rebuild...make moves to get younger and better at the same time. Not that Ed Wade ever followed through on that plan...

[andyb]

Ed Wade rarely had a good prospect base either. Nobody is suggesting we don't give certain prospects a chance. It is just foolish to assume that you can compete without money though. Would I trade Painter or Miller for an older veteran this offseason? Probably not. But that does not mean re-signing Schwarber or pivoting to Alonso for a power bat is a bad decision either.

We can get a bit younger this offseason. Just thinking we can get dramatically younger and still compete is just not realistic though.

[Philsmania]

Another x-factor is Ranger’s history of not being able to pitch full seasons.

His next injury-free ML season will be his first. I've also heard whispers that his conditioning could be better.