Phillies 2025-2026 Hot Stove Discussion

[julio]

The thing is, I see measuring organizational success by winning out in the post-season, as opposed to reaching the post-season (i.e., excelling in the regular season) as foolish, to be blunt. The post-season is a crapshoot. If you roll snake eyes, it's not because you brought the wrong dice (assuming you're not cheating, of course! ).

The Phillies in 2025 won 96 regular-season games. That is a successful season. They didn't win out in a multi-layer tournament involving 12 teams - a tournament that turns to a great degree on luck.

If some fans see that as a failed season... well, in my view, that's less an issue with the organization than with those fans' expectations. But that's just my view - and after all these years, I tend to approach the Phillies relatively rationally, and I'm not all that emotionally invested. I don't feel cheated, or disrespected, if they don't sign the free agent I wanted, or if they lose in the post-season (or even if they don't make the post-season, although I enjoy it when they do!).

[zambonir]

In a world where Kyle Tucker gets $60 million and Taijuan Walker is still making $18 million from four years ago JT is certainly worth $15 million.

Replacement level would be 0 WAR. I really will be surprised if he's not at 2.0 this year and 1.5 next year. If Marchan plays 60 games insead of 30 and gets to 1 WAR even better.

The Bichette thing seems to have sent everyone's head spinning. That move was only going to work if they traded Bohm. Bohm's still here. We have three starting OFs save for the short end of a LF platoon. Crawford needs to play. JT's contract wouldn't really stop the Phillies from signing Suarez/trading Bohm or trying to get Brendan Donovan, if more upgrades are needed. Then they get $30 million to replace Garcia next year and Walker's $18M will cover most of Luzardo. JT's money might be needed more if both Crawford and Miller flop but I don't think you want to play Garrett Stubbs for 80 games this year just because of that.

I didn't remember Chooch being that good in AAA. It just seemed like even in 2008 it wasn't certain he'd both hit and be a great starting catcher (0.1 WAR, .620 OPS).

If JT can do what Chooch did at 35 we'll be sitting pretty. He had a down year after that but was still solid at 37.

[zambonir]

I will concede the contract seems more inflated if the incentives (reportedly $5 million each year) are easily reached (since they are likely just games started or ABs), and could also turn into a source of drama on the back end. But if that's the case that's where the Mets helped JT win the stand-off.

Free-agent catcher J.T. Realmuto and the Philadelphia Phillies are in agreement on a three-year, $45 million contract with a chance to get to $60 million, according to sources familiar with the deal.

— Robert Murray ( @ByRobertMurray ) January 16, 2026

[schillingfan]

I hope people appreciate the sarcasm!

Sucks to be a Philadelphia sports fan right now.

[phillychuck]

I hope people appreciate the sarcasm!

phillychuck:
Sucks to be a Philadelphia sports fan right now.

Over the last week or so...

[zambonir]

Yeah I didn't read it as sarcasm per se. Obviously Eagles just won a Super Bowl and Phillies are one of the best teams in baseball but the Eagles' reign is over, the Phillies have been disappointing for three straight Octobers (crap shoot or not) and we're still bruised from one of the worst Sixers seasons since they won nine games, and they've lost a few bad ones in the past week. And the arguably brightest spot (albeit with a lower standard than we have for the Eagles), the Flyers, currently spiraling. Plus the Union still I haven't won MLS Cup.

[andyb]

Caratini just got 2 years and $14 million total from the Twins. Assume we would have offered a bit more to get him if we had moved on from JT.

[zambonir]

Or we would have traded with them for the other guy.

Murphy on Bichette:

No reason for Phillies to hang their heads about Bo Bichette as Mets go wild |...

The Mets are operating with a different definition of fiscal sense. They are also operating with a different level of urgency, given the departures of Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, and Edwin Diaz and their failed pursuit of Kyle Tucker. The Phillies could fail to sign Bichette and still have more or less the same roster that won 96 games last season. For the Mets, Bichette might have been their only hope at coming out of this offseason with a roster that looks to have improved over last year’s disappointment. Necessity plus wherewithal equals motivation.

[Philsmania]

To be honest, I was never really on board with signing Bichette. I wasn't crazy about blowing up the payroll further and losing those two draft picks. And, i could never wrap my mind around how he might actually fit on this roster. Yeah, we're running it back but we're still good enough to get to October and October baseball is a total crspshoot.

[Austinfan]

If Miller and Crawford don't pan out, the Phillies are doomed in any case.
Middleton can't be expected to match LA or NY when it comes to spending, so Phillies aren't adding 2-3 elite FAs to balance out the inevitable decline of their veterans.
So they need a few prospects to step up and provide low cost WAR.

[andyb]

If Miller and Crawford don't pan out, the Phillies are doomed in any case.

No. It would be nice if they pan out, but remember it is not your money. Other prospects might develop. Other free agents or trade targets could be acquired. Most of our current team's best players were not developed by us other than Nola, Bohm, and Stott.

There is more than one way to build a team.

[owaistabish]

It is. But the main problem with the Phillies hitters is that they are prone to strikeouts, and top heavy. The Jays were successful primarily due to focusing on putting the ball in play. I think Phillies hitters should shift to the same approach, work the count, put the ball in play, which can be done as these are all proven hitters. Bo was good fit as he was a heavy contact hitter.

[zambonir]

Not doomed, but certainly not ideal as Harper, Turner and Schwarber also decline.

Not sure why you don't think Phillies ownership should be able to keep up with the Dodgers and Mets though. These are no longer real businesses. They are a combination of rich man playthings and virtual public trusts (sometimes not even virtual given the tax breaks and publicly owned land or facilities). The smaller markets and mere non-billionaire owners might not be able to do it but Middleton is worth worth $3.4 billion, and the investors he has brought in to replace some of the other partnership aren't doing it because they don't expect to make a ton of money on real estate (both in PA and FL) and franchise appreciation.

Steve Cohen is worth astoundingly more (almost $16 billion) but the Dodgers' principal owner is not ($5 billion). If it was all truly coming out of Middleton's pockes, no, he couldn't do it indefinitely, but they wouldn't be spending at the level they already were if an extra $20 million would really wreck the budget.

[andyb]

I think Phillies hitters should shift to the same approach, work the count, put the ball in play, which can be done as these are all proven hitters.

Hitters just don't shift though (and our one guy Bohm that does that regularly is really slow and hits into lots of DPs).

I still think you value hitters individually rather than any one particular philosophy. There is a whole lot of data that the best thing is avoiding outs (as in Schwarber's walks give him a decent OBP). Working the count is important, but most hitters that are successful have enough power to make pitchers wary of throwing too many strikes.

I just want good baseball players and really don't think there should be litmus tests on how they play. Jimmy Rollins may have been an imperfect leadoff hitter, but the whole package was a really good hitter and baseball player.

[andyb]

The Dodgers though may still be profitable (as the Mets and Yankees are too) even with the high payroll. Don't trust the owner financial statements to the press. They are doing OK..

Baseball needs to share something like 75% of local revenue, not the 35%-40% they currently do. That is the only way to get some semblance of parity. I would buy back all the local rights eventually like Manfred wants and then sell it all for $5-$10 billion a year as a single package. Compensate teams with revenue based on viewership so the big markets would still have an advantage - but a small market team could be incentivized to improve because more wins would equal more viewers nationally.

[zambonir]

I believe the Dodgers actually are the most profitable team in MLB. Or is it just highest-revenue? But yeah, they aren't suffering. And that 5 billion is just Mark Walter, he has a lot of people in his investment group, and it's not because he's poor, it's just that together they are more rich. And generating even more money every day in their private equity world, including the return on deferred escrow.

Bichette is a contact hitter, but he also a free swinger with a high chase rate. About the same as Bryce, higher than Trea, higher than Schwarber (lower than Nick of course). Obviously as long as he's hitting for average and getting his pitches that doesn't matter (which would also be true of Bohm if he was able to hit at his best more consistently.

But I still don't really think that's what's missing from the Phillies offense. Another higher OBP higher power bat - what Hoskins was - is. The decline of Nick and JT as sluggers and the failure of Bohm to become one is what cost them since '23, except when Nick got hot (which was just for one game the last two years but longer until he and everyone else shut down against Arizona).

Now, do I think Adolis Garcia is going to turn the clock back to 2023 and be that guy? Probably not, but he's a better fit than Kepler and an upgrade over Casty in the field, and it could happen.

It would have been fun to see how it went with Bichette but I don't look at that Mets offer and think they should have done it. I would have rather signed Tucker, but same problem - the Phillies preference for longer lower-AAV deals doesn't make them cheap but it's not what the market's giving.

Crawford is really the guy the roster turns on this year. How much leeway does he get, and if he struggles (either at the plate or in the field) where do they turn?

[andyb]

I think Crawford will do OK but expectations should be modest. 700 OPS (with a high average) and decent defense should be enough for him to keep the job and I think he can do that. Whether he can add power is an open question. But we also are not doomed if he does not succeed. Maybe Marsh or Rojas will be better. Maybe we'll trade for someone. Lots of ways to win and the Phillies seem to adapt each year.

[Florida_Sunshine]

I am going to go out on a limb here and say that Bohm has a very good year as the RH bat we are seeking. This team still goes as far as our pitching takes us and I also think we will be fine there. Wheeler and Nola will be fine. Luzardo and Sanchez carry the team and Painter comes through as a rookie. The bullpen is good. Close to a repeat of last year in our record.

[phillychuck]

Personally, I’m really worried about Painter's drop in release point after his surgery. That higher release point might not come back, and his fastball lost life because of the low release last year, and his slider wasn’t as sharp. He was basically an average AAA pitcher, and he won’t help at all in MLB with that level of ability. Hope he’s working on that in the offseason/spring training. Great news last year is he was healthy, this year hoping his stuff comes back.

[andyb]

It would not be the worst thing if Painter had success for a couple of months in AAA knowing what he needs to work on while Walker holds down the 5th starter job.