Phillies 2025-2026 Hot Stove Discussion

[zambonir]

Gosh running back a 96-win team that already swapped Romano for Duran and is replacing Ranger with the best Phillies pitching prospect since Cole Hamels (even if we don't know whether he'll work out). Sounds awful.

Of course I'd still rather have an 89-win team that figures out how to win again in October. Tucker and Bregman and Soto didn't do that for their teams last year (in Soto's case they didn't even make the playoffs), and Bichette was hurt until the World Series.

I don't think Rojas is competing for CF, he's barely competing for the 5th bench spot. Question is will they bring in a clear 4th OF to platoon with Marsh and will it be someone who can also play CF? Kemp has options, he doesn't need to be a lock. Rojas too.

I'm more likely to be standing in RF in Clearwater than Nick Castellanos But the only way they can get anything for him in trade is after all the other OFs are off the market. Phillies can actually help that process if they sign someone like Grichuk or Pham or Hays.

By international market, VFK, I guess you mean the non-amateur market (given we just signed a $4 million international player), but I wouldn't say offering Yamamoto and pursuing Sasaki and Imai is ignoring it. Sure we wish it was better but that's not a very big market either. This year, it seems similar to last year's FA OF market actually - none of the players were actually worth getting (all those guys the Phillies didn't sign last year to upgrade the OF instead of Kepler were mostly more expensive bombs).

Now that the Phillies have shown a willingness to spend $30M and trade Bohm, let's see what they did post-JT that no one expects. Last year it was the Luzardo deal.

[David_Criss]

I like JT, but yeah 3 years is a bad deal. Had he signed a few weeks ago, we never would have gotten excited about Bichette. But as soon as they lose out on Bichette they immediately give in to JT on his demands after saying for weeks they wouldn't budge off of a 2 year deal. JT was never going to get a better deal than from the Phillies.

They could have taken the Bichette money and re-signed Ranger and traded for a catcher.

The Phillies have not improved one bit. I am hoping there are a couple major trades coming to improve this lineup, but sadly I don't see that happening.

[zambonir]

3 years for JT, do not like that, but he had them over a barrel due to their continued inability to draft & develop talent.

Well, they developed two catchers but traded both of them, so sure, a deeper team would still have a better option closer to the majors, though Marchan's not nothing. And O'Hoppe might not have been the answer either (and Tait obviously was further away).

[allentown]

Like last off-season, it feels like DD re-arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic and hoping we will not sink. As Roseman famously said, hope is not a strategy.

Oh, Please. Winning the NL East with 96 wins is not the Titanic. We would do well to be able to run that back. The playoffs reward the hot team, not necessarily the best team. There was no way we were going to be the best team, at least on paper, in the NL, especially after the Dodgers signed Tucker. And they were extremely strong prior to that signing. The fans of perhaps 25 teams would like to be in our place -- well, perhaps only 20.

[phillychuck]

Way too much money (and too many years) for JT. This team under DD has no idea how to manage roster resources. JT is worth about $10M, if that. We are over-paying a lot of guys, thus we have holes.

Marchan and a low-level signing would be better, and leave a bit of money to spend on picking up a higher-salaried infielder in a trade or off the street. Or you could have put it toward Bichette...

[andyb]

There is definitely a case to consider a catcher in the upcoming draft this year. When was the last time we spent a top 5 pick on a catcher. Rupp?

[phillychuck]

Sucks to be a Philadelphia sports fan right now.

[Austinfan]

Overreaction much? With Duran and Keller, bullpen is solid for PO run.
It's time for the farm to produce, not just April, but July.
Crawford to start the season, Miller and Rincones in mid-summer could provide more than Bichette if they're for real.

Middleton opened the pocket book, but asking him to spend with LA and NY is unfair.

[zambonir]

As long as they are willing to spend the money it doesn't matter what someone's objective value is. WAR per $ it's still a slight underpay I believe (at least for now). I also think it's also too easy for us to sit here and dismiss JT"s value in the way the pitching staff prepares for games and executes the game plan (the dugout does not get to call pitches, at least not using the earpieces). And luckily his worst skill (framing) can now be mitigated by challenges.

Aren't the Sixers good PC? Or was that last week

[phillychuck]

Last week...did you see the game vs the Cavs?

Do you think JT will put up 1.5 WAR? I sure don’t. I love him as a guy, he’s a great teammate I’m sure, too. I would have been OK with $12M I think, so it’s not a horrible contract. But I would have been much more excited to watch Marchan behind the plate with Bichette somewhere in the IF. And it sucks that it’s the despicable Mets that signed him. It’s harder to live with after all the rumors he was coming here, too.

And every pitching staff ever in the majors has loved their everyday catcher and thought he played a huge role in their success. The means nothing.

To be fair his fWAR is projected between 1.5 and 2.6, and his bWAR projection is just as high...

[andyb]

Do you think JT will put up 1.5 WAR?

He just put up 2.5 bWAR and 2.1 fWAR. It is a fairly valued contract even with the age related risk. Do I ever think he'll be much better than 2.0 WAR? No. But he really does not have to be and trading Tait kind of sealed the necessity of the deal.

I wish they figured out a way to get Rutschman but imagine the price was high. Ford was the other option (who we will see in DC this year) but there were questions about his defense that I imagine the Phillies did not like.

We just had no better alternatives here and the money does not kill us. Now they just need to sit him twice a week instead of once and dial back the base stealing.

[zambonir]

Yeah I think he'll still top 2.0 WAR this year. I know age is undefeated and it's concerning he had no bat whatsoever in September, but that first year after an injury/surgery can be bumpy too. I still think he'll still have some good months at the plate and will be better than anyone else we could have gotten (barring a more costly trade).

Tait didn't really have any impact on this because he was not going to play for the Phillies before 2028 and probably not even then as a starter. He'll rise faster on a team that isn't trying to win, but he's still only 19 and hasn't been to AA.

[andyb]

Tait was one reason they went 3 years. While he is young, he might only need a year in AA and AAA each. Doesn't mean he will make it by then, but the Phillies clearly thought offering the 3rd year was OK with the lack of any sort of pipeline.

[BaseballCat]

Too bad we traded him. I hope we have a young catcher to develop either in the system now or by draft. They went all in last year to get Duran hoping he would be the last piece, but the bats went silent

[zambonir]

He doesn't play for us anymore.

[andyb]

He doesn't play for us anymore.

Which is why he is not available to us in 2028. Giving a 3rd year was partially about having nothing in the minors that looks like a major league catcher in the next 3 years. And the decision that Marchan is really only backup material.

[zambonir]

Ah, gotcha. I think they already decided JT was probably gonna be here for three years when they traded Tait, even (but also they're not sure he'll really be a starter himself). They still might have to sign another vet to pair with JT in 2028. I think he got his third year the minute the Phillies heard about the Mets.

Clearly there are some people on this list who hope Marchan is Chooch 2.0. I suppose it could happen.

[ahb]

Ugh, this is an absolutely gross deal.

Even not getting Bichette, I'd have rather seen us move on from JT and gone with a cheaper option so we'd have the flexibility to use the money in other ways both now and next offseason.

I have real doubts about whether JT will be much above replacement level even this year. So, I'd have rather just gone with a cheap, replacement level option.

[andyb]

Chooch was late developing offensively but had an 847 OPS across 200+ games in AAA. Marchan has stalled offensively and has a 656 OPS across 200+ games in AAA.

Big difference.

[bigegypt0417]

Which would you rather try?