Phillies 2025-2026 Hot Stove Discussion

[phillychuck]

Who are we projecting to be the next three starters after the first six (counting Walker and Painter)?

[Florida_Sunshine]

Do you mean 2-3 years out or in 2026?

I can only think of Chase for 2026. Further out, Cage Wood and Obermuellar.

[zambonir]

This year I think he means. Right now it's Tucker Davidson, Cabrera, Rangel and possibly Bowlan (who has a starter's pitch mix). I reckon they're not done though.

And if Wheeler's not ready in April Walker is in his spot, and Painter is needed.

[phillychuck]

I don’t think they can go Nola, Sanchez, Luzardo, walker, painter in April. they need another B-level arm. I want Painter starting later and in AAA for a while this spring. He’s still not 100%.

[allentown]

It would be nice if they pan out, but remember it is not your money. Other prospects might develop. Other free agents or trade targets could be acquired. Most of our current team's best players were not developed by us other than Nola, Bohm, and Stott.

There is more than one way to build a team.

But the current expensive contracts going well into plus/star FAs 30s are only a short-term fix, not a way to win consistently. They can provide quick success, which can continue only if cheap guys on their initial contracts, whether home-grown or gotten cheap from Rule 5 or trade when young (Abreu/Victorino/Sanches) are developed to fill the gap when the costly FAs are worth far less than their pay, as Casty is now and Realmuto, Turner, Harper, and likely Schwarber will before their contracts expire. Cheap, int-house talent is what keeps a team in the post-season most years. As we've seen from recent deals, the cost of building with big FA deals is continuing to explode.

I'm not expecting a serious salary cap in the new collective bargaining agreement. Hardly anyone wants it. I don't think the poor teams really do, although they must pretend to their fans that they want to strongly compete spending closer to the top of a hard ceiling -- doesn't the money from the tax for exceeding the lux thresholds get distributed to the poor teams and don't the poor teams get bonus draft picks and more international money? They don't want to compete without their bonuses from MLB and if the current soft cap were made hard, even at the first tier of today adjusted for inflation, those owners don't want to spend that much.

[allentown]

I want Painter starting later and in AAA for a while this spring. He’s still not 100%.

If he's ready, I don't want him wasting what IP he has this year in AAA. If we want to reduce his IP and start him in warm weather, he can join the team in Atlanta and get his 2nd start in Miami, while starting the year in CLW and continuing to work on things and stay sharp.

[phillychuck]

Good idea. Warm weather and low stress innings however you go about it is good.

[zambonir]

They likely need another B level arm regardless. I guess the good news, as far as that goes, is Ranger's injuries won't be an issue, though 2023 was the only year of the last three where he couldn't start the season (and that was because of the WBC).

But they really can't go spending $4 or $6 million on a 7th starter. Not so much the money as they just don't have the roster spot, given Walker ultimately should end up in the pen and Bowlan can't be optioned. That's why Bowlan would make the most sense as the Strahm option to step into rotation if Walker's already in it. Ross was supposed to be that last year. But so long as Painter isn't awful/looks unready in Clearwater, he's in the big leagues.

Hopefully Wheeler only misses a couple of weeks and then if Painter's out of his depth Walker can stay in the rotation which is better for him anyway.

[fish]

Not that I’d bet the ranch, but Bohm is gearing up to play for a contract this year. If ever he was going to break out, this would be the year.

[andyb]

Not that I’d bet the ranch, but Bohm is gearing up to play for a contract this year. If ever he was going to break out, this would be the year.

That would be nice. The lineup still really has the problem of who is going to bat 4th after Turner, Schwarber, and Harper. To me that is the whole reason they wanted Bichette and they cared less about everyone behind them in the lineup. Whomever bats 4th has a chance to lead the league in RBI since they will have so many plate appearances with baserunners AND a platoon advantage.

[jimbomill]

I believe the Dodgers actually are the most profitable team in MLB. Or is it just highest-revenue?

That is a key point, they've some impressive cash-flow at their disposal.

[zambonir]

I assume it would have been Schwarber 4th with Bichette batting 2nd. Now it pretty much goes back to being Garcia. Bohm's bat plays at #2 but he's also DP-prone.

Marsh or Stott hitting well enough to bat 2nd would also work, but can they? Stott's approach a better fit there than Marsh's.

Per MLBTR Mets' full cost on Bichette (including tax hit) if he opts out after one year: $97 million. They even have to pay him $5M if he opts out!

$86M per year if he stays for all three.

[biggsphils]

Agree, that's why i can't understand why a majority of fans want to get rid of Bohm ?

[flyers19rw]

What to do with Bohm is one of the major decisions to be made by the franchise. Too many phans look at 3B and expect Mike Schmidt or Scott Rolen. It doesn't always work out that way. Bohm is pretty reliable-~.280/.330/.415/.740 with 30 or so doubles and 15 HRs. He is a slow runner but has made big moves at improving his defense. He really isn't going to be that easy to replace. Right now the Phillies need to decide what to do with him. Sign him long term or trade him. My call would be to keep him. He's not blocking anyone. Miller can stay at SS or be moved into the OF or Turner could be put into the OF.

[allentown]

I agree, Bohm may be a better hitter than any FA we are able to sign next off-season and we can't afford to trade prospects.

[andyb]

I agree, Bohm may be a better hitter than any FA we are able to sign next off-season and we can't afford to trade prospects.

We are really talking Miller potentially for 2027. Not any free agents or trades ideally.

[allentown]

We are really talking Miller potentially for 2027. Not any free agents or trades ideally.

Given the flux and questions in OF, I'm thinking we may need and OF and our best OF may be one of our current non-Bohm IF or Miller.

[zambonir]

Bohm's another Boras client who will want to try and get his nut. I doubt Phillies even QO him, unless he has the season we're wishing he might (i.e. (2024 except a whole season this time) He's an average or slightly above average player in every way (fielding, which is an improvement, hitting, which is a disappointment). His career OPS+ is not likely to improve.

Now of course if the whole league sees him that way maybe he comes back on a team-friendly deal. But the Phillies have now tried to trade him two years in a row, the first time after what had been a career season (but ended with him being benched).

'27 probably starts with Miller at 3B and FA OF if Garcia doesn't work out (and if he works out too well he'll be harder to sign). But also Bichette will be a free agent. And the season won't start until July.

[andyb]

Maybe a bit early to pencil in Renteria...

Seriously I think we go out and get a power bat in the OF near the top of the free agent market. Right now any Turner move is not on the table (other than laterally if they decide Miller is better at SS). The only power OF bat in the minors is Rincones and he is a platoon player at best.

[EDmuch]

Isn't there a famous one liner somewhere that hope is not a strategy?