Phillies 2025-2026 Hot Stove Discussion

[fish]

Which is why I think they bite the bullet and just re-sign JT.

I think they’ve realized no one is offering a third year, and the correct play is just to offer him more than the competition for 2 and wait for him to accept that.

[julio]

I went looking. Took me seven minutes.

Per mlb.com stats, there were nine "qualified" catchers in MLB in 2025 (based on innings as catchers, I believe). JT Realmuto ranked ninth among these players in OPS (at .699, as opposed to the .700 that B-R shows; evidently, B-R includes extra decimal places when it adds OBP and SLG to get OPS, because JT's rounded OBP and SLG were .315 and .384, which add to .699, not the .700 B-R shows.

If I instead look at all players who batted as catchers in 2025, there were 99 such players; JT's OPS ranked 36th.

I'll pull ages on the 27 non-qualified players who ranked ahead of JT in OPS - these seem more likely than the eight qualified players to be available if JT is not re-signed. Never mind. There are only a handful who aren't either old, or bad defensively (per Fangraphs Fielding Run Value), and they're mostly some team's primary catcher, even if not "qualified" in terms of innings. The only really interesting one is Carter Jensen — 22-year-old with KC, and I have to figure he's not available.

[Austinfan]

JT was still above average, but no longer elite defensively, and this too, will probably slip.
His power has been declining for two years.
So if we're talking .650-.675 OPS with average defense, we have a 1 to 1.5 WAR catcher.
So the dropoff to a defense first catcher with a .600 OPS just isn't that great.
For $15M, you can probably buy more WAR at another position.

[phillychuck]

Thanks for getting the data! What is your billing rate for 7 minutes these days?

Looking at WRC+ (fangraphs) JT was 30th among catchers with at least 100 PAs (arbitrary line). The Cubs have 2 such catchers (Amaya and Kelly), Toronto has 2 (Heinemann and Kirk), the Chisox have 2 (Teel and Quero), Atlanta has 2 (Baldwin and Murphy), OAK has 2, but Wynns is 35), Bal has 2 (Sanchez and Jackson), and Miami has Hicks and Ramirez, who are both young and close to JT in production. Miami is an intriguing target.

[zambonir]

For $15M, you can probably buy more WAR at another position.

But it's kind of too late for that now isn't it? I mean, you could sign a catcher who gives you 0.5 WAR (probably where Caratini is headed) and trade Bohm and sign Bregman but even that isn't necessarily a huge net gain, and only then because you are getting a top free agent who will also begin decline. Otherwise, even if they hadn't signed Garcia there weren't many other ways to get 2, let alone 3 WAR for $15M in the OF.

And any trade has its own additional cost.

Most teams want to have two 80-game catchers these days, or at least a firm 100/62. We just don't realize it because we've had JT and a permanent DH (Mitch Garver, for instance, only caught 43 games but still DHed 22, and Raleigh also DHed 38 on top of his 121 starts at C). Most teams that seem to have two catchers really don't, especialy if one hasn't firmly established themselves as the best one and one or the other is good enough to DH sometimes.

Murphy is perceived to be available for the right offer but that's another older expensive guy (and the offer would still have to be pretty good).

If things fall apart they probably end up with Caratini or Vasquez or trade for someone older.

Hell, Christian Bethancourt started 42 games for two teams last year and just signed a minor league deal to come back to the Cubs (he'll make $1.6 million if/when in the majors).

[Austinfan]

I'm thinking more the next two seasons with that $15M, especially the third season.
This team hamstrung itself with longer contracts (Walker, Castellanos) to 3rd tier guys that were overpays.
So it's a good idea to avoid that going forward, go big or go short-term.

[andyb]

Where is the evidence that the Phillies are hamstrung with bad contracts? Not signing Bregman is more about Miller for instance. Would the owners want every contract to be perfect? Sure. But they seem ok with spending around bad contracts. Luzardo replaced Walker for instance. Garcia replaced Casty. We are still spending even if not quite at the Dodgers level.

[julio]

Thanks for getting the data! What is your billing rate for 7 minutes these days?

About 12 bucks. (I work cheap, for an independent consultant; about $100/hour, and that's because there are no bennies. As it happens, I would use that rate, if anybody were paying me for anything. Instead, the stuff I do for orgs I'm part of is sans monetary compensation. Wouldn't have it any other way.)

[zambonir]

Three years is still short-term, and it remains to be seen if JT even gets that. If he does it will probably be because the Phillies wanted to spread out/save money. At two years, he might be trying to get $17-18.

A vesting option would also be a decent gamble. You could make it based on IL time rather than innings or games played.

Honestly I can't see any situation (other than a rebuild) where you don't want JT Realmuto on your team as the overpaid back-up catcher in 2028; you just have to have a modestly paid younger starter that year. If he's still playing well enough to not be a back-up, even better (you could trade him, for one thing).

[julio]

This team hamstrung itself with longer contracts (Walker, Castellanos) to 3rd tier guys that were overpays.

Casty, sure. But Walker? As of now, he's in the five-man starting rotation (assumes Wheeler can go on or about Opening Day, and assumes Painter opens in AAA). A year from now, he's a FA.

[zambonir]

Well, that doesn't mean Walker wasn't and isn't overpaid. Just not necessarily by that much. Nor was he ever easily/cheaply replaced (Turnbull came close but quickly demonstrated why he's never been as good at Walker, even if it was mostly health).

They are only "hamstrung" if you still think it's 2011.

But either way, giving one extra year to an aging elite player is not the same as giving five years to two aging players who were merely good (or in Casty's case, very good but not consistently elite).

And sure, if you're going to have a player who is good some years, great some years and bad some years for 4-5 years, you'd rather it be a Bohm or Stott than a Casty or Walker. But you have to actually have the players.

[zambonir]

More on Bowlan from @Matt_Winkelman. You gonna do Pop next?

Taking Another Look at Jonathan Bowlan

> Jarrett Seidler of Baseball Prospectus talked about being shocked by the backlash to the deal because Bowlan had certain pitch traits and outcomes that were elite. The consensus among people he talked to in the industry is that the Phillies had done extremely well in the deal.

[Matt_Winkelman]

Pop is more conventional and I think the MLB deal is more going to be minor league by the end. It is a high 90s sinker and a slider. They grade out decently well, but the sinker is in the zone a ton and doesn’t really miss bats in or out of the zone. There is the outline of something, it just would be better if it was a minor league deal.

[phillychuck]

Matt, that is really interesting info, plenty to make a Phillies fan happy. Now the Phils have to figure out how to deploy Bowlan and sequence his pitches so he’s most effective. I think they are pretty good at coaching that.

[Austinfan]

To me, what's interesting about Bowlan is he has a starter's pitch mix.
I think the key is whether they can tweak his 2 seamer (more horizontal movement away from LH) and turn a minus changeup into a useable pitch with fade against LH.

That would make him both a 7th inning option if he can build off his 4 seamer and a 6th/7th starter option if he can develop pitches to handle LH hitters.

At worst he should be a solid middle inning RP with team control and low cost.

[zambonir]

So basically Pop is Carlos Hernandez, except Phillies signed him rather than claimed him? Maybe he sticks, maybe he doesn't, maybe he stays in the org after a DFA, maybe not?

[Matt_Winkelman]

A two seamer/sinker running away from opposite handed hitters isn’t a thing unless you are playing The Show. Some run on a 4-seamer with ride can be good up in the zone, but a two seamer/sinker is going to move along the swing path of an opposite handed hitter which is why modern pitching involves only throwing sinkers to same side batters.

[dicemen99]

The Phillies should be all in for Bichette. Young, great hitter, RH. Give Bohm away, don’t resign JT, grab the veterans minimum back for Casty.

Bichette can move to 2nd when Miller is ready. Or a year from now things could be different with Turners lock on SS - who knows, but Bichette is perfect for them for the next 5 years. We may need to move somebody to CF if Crawford doesn’t with out there in a year or two.

I would like JT back, but we need to move on from him in 2 years anyway so I’m fine with a defense first guy on the cheap. Plenty of teams make the WS with guys like that.

[phillychuck]

What happened to Bichette in 2024? Just curious, it’s really an outlier (bad) for him. It’s the only thing that might make him affordable.

[zambonir]

If the Phillies seriously want to compete with the Dodgers they should be considering Bichette, Bregman or Tucker. But they've already set their path by keeping Kyle, and their budget by salary-dumping Strahm. MLBTR has Bichette getting eight years, $208 million. Even if they dump Bohm and don't re-sign JT they can't really afford him plus a journeyman catcher under the parameters that seem to exist. Plus you'd be adding a fifth player (including Nola) to drag you down in four years. Because he's not getting a short deal, unless it's like Bregman's contract last year (and the Mattingly also recently publicly stated they don't give opt-outs).

Not sure I'd want the Phillies to give up the draft picks either.