Phillies 2025-2026 Hot Stove Discussion

[Austinfan]

Tell it to Nola. When his two seamer was in its prime, he'd throw it inside and freeze LH hitters when it moved over the inside corner. The problem is always location, if you throw that two seamer and it breaks over the middle of the plate, yeah, not good.

[Austinfan]

OPt outs are stupid for most players.

Since most big FAs are overpaid based on past production, why add a clause that guarantees an overpay, since if they live up to the contract value or exceed they'll opt out, so they only stay if they underperform.

[andyb]

Huh? Opt-outs get players more money. How is that stupid for them.

And for teams they are often not stupid either. If they are 3 years older and want more money elsewhere - just let them go. The Nationals were not stupid giving Strasburg an opt out. They were stupid for re-signing him. And Strasburg is counting his hundreds of millions so hard to say he was stupid either.

[phillychuck]

He meant stupid to give to most players.

[andyb]

But the stupidity is really only on the second contract. And often one gets a player for less money on a "prove it" contract like the Mets got with Alonso last year. Opt-outs are generally smart for both sides.

[Matt_Winkelman]

None of what you say is backed up by data. Here is his year over pitch usage vs LHBs. He immediately switches his fastball usage vs LHBs early in his career, before his peak

He still throws it up and in and that is the only place he throws it now

As opposed to where he threw it in 2016

It also isn't necessarily about the horizontal movement, it is about playing off another pitch and in this case the sinker in sits in opposition to the cutter in.

[andyb]

When Nola threw his sinker inside 47% of the time in 2016 was that where he gave up most of his home runs? Nobody really wants to throw that inside sinker to Bryce Harper for instance. It definitely looks like Nola switched it up way before he started to lose a little velocity.

[Austinfan]

Actually, what Nola did was go from predominately sinker/curve to 4 seamer/knuckle curve.
But then sinker/changeup remained about the same, with a shift from the sinker to the changeup.
The cutter was added later, in 2022, and seemed to have replaced some changeups.

[zambonir]

I have no firm opinion about opt-outs one way or another, just don't think the Phillies would be able to sign any of the top three remaining position player free agents - unlikely as that is in any case - to a deal shorter than 7-8 years without one (and even those deals might come with one). I'd rather have JT back for three years then add more dead money or potential DHs for 2030 and 2031 (which is when Bryce's deal is up. Trea is 2033), especially with Bichette also costing the 2nd, 5th and $1 million in international.

[bkox]

Phillies To Sign Levi Stoudt To Minor League Deal

[zambonir]

As reported by Steve Potter (and posted by julio in minor thread) a week ago! (I'm sure Phillies PR will get it in 2026 Julio.)

[dicemen99]

If the Phillies seriously want to compete with the Dodgers they should be considering Bichette, Bregman or Tucker. But they've already set their path by keeping Kyle, and their budget by salary-dumping Strahm. MLBTR has Bichette getting eight years, $208 million. Even if they dump Bohm and don't re-sign JT they can't really afford him plus a journeyman catcher under the parameters that seem to exist. Plus you'd be adding a fifth player (including Nola) to drag you down in four years. Because he's not getting a short deal, unless it's like Bregman's contract last year (and the Mattingly also recently publicly stated they don't give opt-outs).

Not sure I'd want the Phillies to give up the draft picks either.

Bohm + JT money = $23M. Journeyman catcher is not adding any salary that isn’t offset by someone signing Nick when we cut him. Bichettes AAV may be higher than $23M ( but not that much), but that doesn’t mean his 2025 will be higher than $23M.

8 year contract puts him at 36 when it’s done. That’s not a bad gamble at all.

I’m literally smh when you say you don’t want to give up the draft picks for him. Did you morph into Austinfan? Please, I will trade the next 5 2nd round picks for one Bichette. Kevin Gowdy, Spencer Howard, Ethan Wilson, Griffin Burkholder, Cade O. Tell you what, I’ll make it 10 2nd round picks.

[andyb]

The argument against spending money on Bichette or Bregman is really that our best prospect plays similar positions (Miller). Tucker would have been more logical since we really don't have much power in our corner OF pipeline.

[dicemen99]

The argument against spending money on Bichette or Bregman is really that our best prospect plays similar positions (Miller). Tucker would have been more logical since we really don't have much power in our corner OF pipeline.

If Miller is ready in 2027, which is still a big if, you can move Bichette to 2nd. Or Miller could play 2nd. Or we could have a different outlook on Trae at SS.

2027 is a long way away.

[zambonir]

Nick is only going to provide $800,000 of offset at this point, though I suppose he might sign a deal with incentives that could raise the number later. We can't get a decent catcher for less than $4-6 million and 8-10 would still be better. Caratini made $6M last year and given how scarce catching is might beat that as a FA. Rutschman makes $5.5 and will also have a high trade price. Vasquez made $10M last year and is probably still good for five.

I give up the 2nd and the 5th if you could both find a better catching option and sign Bichette for 3-5 years, but you can't, in either case.

I hear you on the bird in hand being worth more than a draft pick especially with this team doing the drafting, but you have to give Miller a chance and if 2024 Bichette comes back he's not even better than what we already have. He's a very poor defensive SS too (the Castellanos of SSs) too so simply moving him to 3B or 2B doesn't mean he'll be great there either.

And 2027 isn't a long way away. It's one season away. Albeit a season that might not be played until June or July.

[xogfog]

Bichette has indicated he would be willing to play second base, so it really would displace Stott not Miller, Bohm would be blocking Miller, I would be happy to trade Stott and Bohm if it meant Miller at 3B and Bichette at 2B.

[zambonir]

Well, in a vacuum, I suppose you're onto something there. The trade return for Stott would likely exceed the value of a 2nd and a 5th, and if MIller is ready to go in July you can trade Bohm then. But I don't think you can now. And I don't really believe the Phillies want to move on from JT, nor are they willing to take on even an extra few milllion in salary before the season.

If JT is putting on a Red Sox hat in a week then you have a good reason to pivot dramatically, and maybe you blow up your budget too. But the reason the Phillies want JT back and the reason JT is able to hold out for a better deal Is because of what he means to the pitchers and pitching coaches, not just his pop time or arm or declining framing/blocking. Maybe it's David Bell type stuff to think that but what if the team comes out of the gate sub-.500 with a new catcher and a pitching staff that still has a lot of questions (no Ranger, Nola still unknown, Wheeler possibly out, Painter who knows) even with a better offense?

[Lucky_Beagle]

.....but what if the team comes out of the gate sub-.500 with a new catcher and a pitching staff that still has a lot of questions (no Ranger, Nola still unknown, Wheeler possibly out, Painter who knows) even with a better offense?

fire the pitching coach, hitting coach, and/or manager?

[zambonir]

Yeah that always works!

I'm sure JT's role is somewhere between unknowable and overstated, but over the past two years he has handled a rotation with four All-Stars or Cy Young candidates, and Nola wasn't even one of the four (though he got a Cy vote in 2024). Now, maybe Cotham can just plug in any old catcher to the scouting and game planning the team has. But still not sure I want to find out, let alone pay the trade price for a decent replacement.

[Jazzhead]

I remain of the view that our best course is to resign Ranger. The path to success, IMO, in both the regular season and the playoffs, is elite starting pitching, including depth to survive the inevitable injuries as the season grinds on.

With good pitching, our lineup now that Kyle has returned is perfectly fine. I'm eager to see what Crawford can do. While I hate to lose JT, if he's being unreasonable I say go with Marchan/Stubbs and invest the money in more starting pitching.