Phillies 2025-2026 Hot Stove Discussion

[fish]

My guess is if JT remains unsigned and the Phillies have any talks with Baltimore we'll eventually hear about it.

Not saying that I’m advocating it, but the Rutchman nuclear option is probably Luzardo for Rutchman, resign Ranger. I don’t think the Os are taking back prospects.

[David_Criss]

When JT signed originally with the Phillies after the trade, he stated he wanted the highest AAV for a catcher to set the bar for catchers, etc. It wasn't I want to be in Philly. If he hasn't signed by now, I am less optimistic he will with the Phillies and I'm ok with that. This team needs some youth. Marchan is very good behind the plate and should hit better with more playing time. Saves some money, too adding some flexibility for now and come July.

I say all that, but please know I'll be glad to welcome JT back if it is a reasonable deal. He got paid. His bat isn't what it used to be.

If he truly wanted to be here he would have signed already.

[phillychuck]

I agree with David for th most part. I love JT and would welcome him back at a reasonable price. But I’m pretty high on Marchan as a regular. We need another guy, though, and I don’t know what is available. Catcher is a thin position, as always, in MLB and in the high minors.

[zambonir]

Or Imai if you do that. But Rutschman is just the biggest name/highest ceiling. There would be other options, albeit also at a decent trade price if they are acceptable 100-game catchers.

JT didn't sign until January 29 last time, and that was with McCann already off the table for months. They may be at a standstill, but I doubt he really wants to be anywhere else, nor has an offer from another team he can't refuse.

We all want Marchan to become the next Chooch but he's still not as good as JT even defensively, and his bat is so poor that even "coming around" might only be 85 OPS+.

[zambonir]

He got paid. His bat isn't what it used to be.

But that doesn't mean he shouldn't be paid pretty well. Dollars per WAR are not a perfect thing of course (and subject to market forces) but straight-up he's worth half as much as Schwarber. Ergo, $15 million is spot-on. Phillies will probably give in on the third year. I would not want to go sign Mitch Garver or give up talent in a trade just to avoid that potential dead money. And this team should not be pinching pennies because of the cash outlay from the tax. If pinching pennies kept them under a threshold, would be more justifiable.

[phillychuck]

Marchan has been used in such a piecemeal manner it’s hard to get a read on his actual offensive potential. I’d guess somewhere between 85 and 100 OPS+. At his age I just don’t know if JT is all that much better.

The real question with Marchan is whether or not he can catch 100+ games in a season without wearing out or getting injured. So they need to find a viable backup who can play for weeks at a time (if needed) if they don’t sign JT.

[Austinfan]

OF course the problem is at his age, how many games can Realmuto catch and still be effective?

[andyb]

OF course the problem is at his age, how many games can Realmuto catch and still be effective?

Probably more than the majority of current major league starters. And more than Marchan.

[phillychuck]

Define “effective.”

[andyb]

700 OPS, league average defense over 120 games.

[zambonir]

He was pretty darn good last year. I do wish he and the manager would be more judicious about his usage. For sure it's a bit of a chicken/egg thing with Marchan. But I think there's a lot of wishing and hoping that he's more than a career back-up, just because he's ours and younger and cheaper. The injury history is also not insignificant.

The irony is if he hadn't been out of options Marchan probably would have had another much-needed year catching 80+ games in AAA, while Stubbs would have been just as good in MLB (maybe he doesn't have the arm or blocking, but for that little playing time it barely matters, and the bat a wash).

[andyb]

The challenge is whether we can find anyone who can do better than a 700 OPS with league average defense and that person is probably only available in a trade. The Phillies are going to be at the top of the competitive balance tax penalties for the duration of Wheeler's contract almost certainly. Which is why I think they bite the bullet and just re-sign JT.

[julio]

The challenge is whether we can find anyone who can do better than a 700 OPS with league average defense and that person is probably only available in a trade.

Statistically, JT will more likely than not have an OPS somewhat under .700 in 2026. He was at .700 in 2025 (OPS+ was 91), and he'll be playing at age 35. He could prove this wrong, of course, but continued gradual decline is what we should expect. The third year of a new contract could get fairly ugly.

[andyb]

Major league deal and 40-man spot to Zach Pop? Seems more than he should get for his recent track record.

Phillies Sign Zach Pop To Major League Deal

[julio]

Per Fangraphs, Pop has no options remaining, which may explain why he bounced around so much last year; he's a marginal ML relief pitcher who can't be optioned, so he sees waivers a lot.

[andyb]

I guess if he has even a major league minimum deal he'll be easier to send down after Spring Training. I know we probably have a couple of 40-man spots we don't care about right now, but we may need them later. JT will need one though I guess we could be done with the major league roster after that.

Is it just me or is anyone else a tiny bit skeptical about our reliever transactions after we lost our assistant GM who seemed good at that?

[Austinfan]

Did we sign any 30+ relievers to real money, hoping they'd rebound?
Then I'm not too concerned.

[andyb]

Nobody is concerned. Clearly we outbid other teams for a reliever without options. It is good that we will spend an extra $500K for reliever competition. Pop did have decent stuff. Just multiple years of bad results recently.

[Philsmania]

One of those good stuff guys who keeps getting chances. He did have a genuinely good season (or, half-season) three years ago, however, so him pitching well at the ML level is not entirely without precedent..

[phillychuck]

There aren’t a whole lot of catchers with a 700+ OPS these days.