Prospect Lists - Phillies and Overall - 2022-2026

[andyb]

The Stuff+ rankings are still a pretty good approximation of pitchers that will do well. Ranger is just the exception and not the rule. Wheeler and Sanchez both rank at the top in stuff and performance. Hunter Greene this evening is an example of great stuff and only average command - yet he still ranks pretty high.

Eno Sarris’ MLB starting pitcher rankings for the rest of 2025

Rankings based on more than stuff+ but it is prominent in the evaluation.

[allentown]

i don't doubt for a second thatd 95+ velocity is needed to be an elite SP or RP and your 9 out of top 10 makes sense, but that's not what we're talking about. We were talking about guys who can be a decent #2-4 SP on a contending team. Under the best of circumstances, I doubt any of us sees Lazar or McGarry or Abel as more than that. I don't see even Gage's ceiling as top 10 SP in baseball and also see that as a stretch for Painter.

Also, obviously not this season or last, but 2022 Nola would also be an exception to a top 10 SP having to have a 95+ FB average.

[Matt_Winkelman]

You are talking stuff and velocity is a major part of stuff. Velocity by itself decreases contact quality. Last year 59 RHP threw at least 140 innings, 28 of them averaged over 94, 51 of them averaged over 92.

If we go back to 2021 there have been 222 seasons by RHP with at least 140 innings, 72 of them (32.4%) have been by a pitcher averaging at least 95. If we sort by fWAR, the only pitchers with at least 4 fWAR (50 of the 222 seasons) to average under 95 are: Logan Webb, Freddy Peralta, Jose Berrios, Lucas Giolito, Zac Gallen, Lance Lynn, Aaron Nola, Max Scherzer, Pablo Lopez (94.9), Seth Lugo, Shane Bieber, Zach Eflin, Sonny Gray, Kevin Gausman (94.9). They account for 21 of the 50 seasons, and 5 of them have averaged over 95 in a season. It is really hard to have sustained multi year success unless you are post-peak guy who has lost something or you are Logan Webb or Aaron Nola.

[zambonir]

To bring this back to the original topic, the new BA list reiterates the possibility that MLB Pipeline simply forgot or didn't consider Seth Johnson, while the two sources are in agreement on McGarry.

Johnson was also ineligible for Matt's mid-season/pre-deadline list (since he was on the major league roster) but McGarry was 28.

[andyb]

And while I think the BA list is better than the MLB list, it is yet another list that loves Spikerman (15) and ignores AOA completely. I know it is hard for an unknown lower pick after a bad year like AOA to get ranked highly, but he actually does have the tools you look for and it is really hard to see Spikerman as more than just a defensive sub at the highest level.

[Austinfan]

Yeah, but that's a simplistic breakdown.
We know that the minimum velocity has increased, few pitchers are effective averaging under 92-93.
Walker's a good example, with mediocre command and an erratic splitter, he was roadkill when his velo dropped to 90.

So we're primarily talking about a population that goes from 92 to 98.
Off Fansgraphs, this season, 95 pitchers with 100+ IP
32: 95+ [(5) 4.0+, (5) 3-3.9 WAR]
34: 93-95 [(4) 3.0-3.9]
17: 92-93 [(1) 4+, (1) 3.0-3.9]
12: 90-92 [(1) 3.0-3.9]

Last season, 130 IP
30: 95+ [(2) 5+, (6) 4.0-4.9, (9) 3.0-3.9]
29: 93-95 [(1) 5+, (11) 3.0-3.9]
18: 92-93 ([2) 4.0-4.9, (5) 3.0-3.9]
19: 88-92 [(3) 3.0-3.9]

Couple points, 100/130 aren't drastic cutoffs yet less than 100 pitchers hit those marks.
95+ is the cutoff for elite starters (Sale was 94.9 in 2024), but only a handful pitch at that level.

However, from 2022 through this season, only 21 pitchers with 10+ WAR.
(9) 95+, (7) 93-94, (5) 92-93.
So high velocity starters tend to have bigger peaks, but not necessarily better long-term production.

Outside of a few horses at the very top, really not much difference in success down to 92 MPH.
So unless you have a shot at an uber-talent (Painter) your best best in the draft is to focus on guys with good command and body control who can throw 100 pitches at 92+.

And any pitcher who has the arm to throw 150+ innings above replacement level has real value.

[andyb]

But Walker is barely throwing harder than last year when he was roadkill. Velocity is about the same if you take out the first month last year.

Maybe Walker just has better command this year and has worked on his pitch shape a bit. But he has also been pretty lucky this year and it probably won't last.

Your charts are also pretty meaningless. The pitchers that throw only 90 are generally not good enough even if there are many more of them in the minors. The same is true of relievers (adding a few mph).

It just is not a good point that you are making. Velocity is important Spin and other aspects of stuff are all important. And every pitcher of course does better with command. The whole point of this discussion is that pitchers with more velocity and better stuff get more chances. Every MLB team seems to agree with that. Except you.

[Austinfan]

The numbers show that outside a handful (5-6) elite high velocity pitchers (i.e. uber-talents who also have good command, stamina and secondary pitches), the distribution of top of the rotation guys (3-5 WAR) is pretty even between say 92-96 MPH.

So once a pitcher shows he can throw 92+ (or a prospect shows that potential, i.e. not touching 92 but averaging 92-93) the focus should be more on other attributes like command, spin, secondary pitches than an extra MPH or two.

That is, I'd go for the 93 MPH guy with command and body control who can be improved with tweaks than the 96 MPH guy who can't repeat his mechanics and has to be completely rebuilt, which is generally a fool's errand.

Of course, everyone wants the 6'5 220 lb guy who can throw 100 pitchers at 96-97 with an easy motion, good command, 2-3 solid secondary pitches, etc.
Every fooball coach wants a 230 lb RB who runs a 4.3 with great vision and agility.
There's only one Saquon Barkley, however.

[andyb]

That is, I'd go for the 93 MPH guy with command and body control who can be improved with tweaks than the 96 MPH guy who can't repeat his mechanics and has to be completely rebuilt, which is generally a fool's errand.

There are huge fallacies in this philosophy though. In broad terms there are 100 guys who throw 93 with command and 10 guys who throw 96 without command. 5 of the 100 who throw 93 make it to the majors and 2 or 3 of the guys who throw 96 make it. So you are comparing a 5% success rate with a 20%-30% success rate.

Most of the guys who throw 93 don't make it out of the low minors or don't get drafted or signed at all. The ones with great command do, but the guys that throw harder have a better chance of getting signed in the first place and succeeding in the long run.

You just present these false choices that do not exist in real life. There is a reason guys like Ranger Suarez sign for only $10K. It is because they have a very low chance of success. Some do of course and every team should try to develop low cost command guys. But the higher draft picks and large bonuses generally go to the guys that throw harder. In an era of roster limits you really want to fill your roster spots with the pitchers that have the best chance of major league success beyond AAAA status (who are replaceable through the waiver wire and other means).

Your strategy just does not work as a primary prospect development philosophy.

[phillychuck]

In broad terms there are 100 guys who throw 93 with command and 10 guys who throw 96 without command. 5 of the 100 who throw 93 make it to the majors and 2 or 3 of the guys who throw 96 make it. So you are comparing a 5% success rate with a 20%-30% success rate.

This is exactly the point, and it is how MLB teams and scouts look at it, too. It’s success RATE that is important. The numbers are rough, of course, but that is the general range we are playing in. Modern baseball, with 5-6 inning starts and lots of relief innings, demands high velocity and high spin even more.

[andyb]

Modern baseball, with 5-6 inning starts and lots of relief innings, demands high velocity and high spin even more.

I do love the Stuff+ rankings because they incorporate both velocity and spin. So there an Aaron Nola with below average velocity can still grade above average on overall stuff. Even this year he is above average at 102 though that is a big drop from 112 last year. The curve went from 127 last year to 115 this year after being 130+ early in his career.

Was Nola hurt or was he getting old? Hard to tell though we'll start to find out this week. It is encouraging that his command and location were about the same, so he was clearly losing some movement and spin on all his pitches including his sinker. It is very possible though that Nola will just have to pitch with slightly above average stuff the next couple of years. That can be a 3rd or 4th starter, just not an ace.

Nola stuff+ here.
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/aaron-nola/16149/stats?position=P#stuff+

[Austinfan]

There's aren't 100 guys who throw 93 with good command. A 100 guys with average command, maybe - by the time you get to AA guys with marginal velocity and below average command have been weeded out. Thsse are roster filler guys that eat innings in A ball to protect the real prospects.

And there are more than 10 guys who throw 96 without command. These guys keep getting chances up to AA or AAA when it becomes obvious they can't be "fixed."

The stress on velocity has motivated younger pitchers to focus on velocity (overthrowing) and it's hard to break habits. People respond to incentives, if higher velocity gets you drafted higher, young pitchers will focus on throwing hard, not well.

Velocity will get you easy success at lower levels, but by AA, most hitters can hit badly located FBs, it's the inability to see and hit breaking balls that ends careers at that level.

My point is devalue raw velocity in prospects (especially college kids) and focus on body type, mechanics and the potential to add velocity without sacrificing command/consistent mechanics. Notice how many hard college throwers struggle to maintain that velocity in a bigger pro workload - going max effort once a week for three months is different than throwing 90-100 pitches every five days over six months.

You can tweak a couple MPH with good coaching:
Sanchez: 93.6, 93.0, 92.1, 94.5, 95.3
Wheeler: 94.5, 95.2, 93.7, 95.8, 96.8, 96.9, 97.2, 95.9, 95.8, 95.2

[andyb]

The 93 mph guys with average command DO get weeded out. Many get cut. Many never get drafted. Many never get the same chances as the higher velocity guys who have better success rates.

I get your point. It is just one that any major league team prizes. A prospect's velocity and spin rates are VERY important. They provide the base for everything else. Sanchez was not taught to throw harder. He came throwing 98, just not very accurately. He added strength and command so he could throw strikes at the higher velocity. But it never works if he did not have that innate talent in the first place. Sanchez essentially disproves your thesis.

[Austinfan]

Sanchez was never projected to be this good, the jump in velocity was not expected.
He was a long RP at 25, spot starter at 26. 9 WAR last two seasons would make him the #1 on most teams.

Contrast to Luzardo, who's always been a hard thrower with decent command, he had stuff, he had to learn how to pitch. And is still learning (don't tip your pitches!).

What does stand out is how few pitchers on the Phillies are below average command/location.

[andyb]

Sanchez was never projected to be this good, the jump in velocity was not expected.

Not true.

He was touching 98 and higher at the time of the trade. He just could not control it. With the Phillies he added strength so he could throw that hard and know where it was going.

[Austinfan]

The Phillies had him cut back on his velocity (stop his overthrowing) to improve his command.
He became a 93 MPH pitcher with better command.
Then with his mechanics smoothed out, he gradually added velocity from 25-27 years old, so it's doubtful it was due to strength training or physical maturity at that age.

"His development process from his instructors was to trust his stuff, to attack the zone and not worry so much about velocity as compared to movement and command."

6/29/24 : The Sanchez Development Path

[andyb]

And you keep proving the point that teams get the guys that can throw 98, teach them better mechanics and get them stronger, so they can throw 98 in the future. They also get more chances than the guys that throw 94.

Sometimes you should just admit you are wrong. Teams want players that can throw harder because they have a better chance of success. Period. You seem to think that means everything else is unimportant which is not what anyone is saying. Tools matter. They are not the only thing but they DO matter.

[bigegypt0417]

And you keep proving the point that teams get the guys that can throw 98, teach them better mechanics and get them stronger, so they can throw 98 in the future. They also get more chances than the guys that throw 94.

Agreed 100%

When you don't have to be taught to throw hard...it offers the opportunity to get more chances and leeway.

If McGarry was missing bats and walking people like he does but was hitting 92 as his peak, he'd be a minor league free agent as of 2 years ago.

[Austinfan]

But you can only do that with certain guys, the same way only certain guys throwing 93 have the command and repertoire of pitches to be effective.

We've seen dozens of high velocity/poor command pitchers fail to improve over the last five years, from draft picks to reclamation veteran projects.

I think they were overconfident in their ability to "fix" pitchers, that is, if a pitcher doesn't have the innate body control you can coach him until the cows come home and he'll never develop command. He can dial back like Sanchez, but may still be unable to consistently repeat his mechanics.

One of the keys to scouting is identifying players who can be coached up, a combination of raw skills and intangibles.
It's easy to scout a 98 MPH FB these days, you don't even need scouts anymore with software that can analyze video.
What's harder is identifying who has the innate body control to be "fixed" and the work ethic and coach-ability to put in the work to develop better mechanics.

[andyb]

We've seen dozens of high velocity/poor command pitchers fail to improve over the last five years, from draft picks to reclamation veteran projects.

Duh. Do you expect all of them to succeed? The point that just don't get is that more of them succeed than the low velocity guys. Every team does this. Some better than others. But velocity matters greatly in the equation no matter how often you dismiss it.