Prospect Lists - Phillies and Overall - 2022-2026

[andyb]

I suppose being passed up in the Rule 5 also says to the people who make these lists that he isn't valued around the league.

Rule 5 picks like McGarry rarely stick because they are not major league ready and every spot in the major league bullpen is used these days. That is what they will wrestle with on McFarlane. There is probably like a 2% chance he could stick all year in a major league bullpen next year. Now that 2% chance might be his All Star outcome, but really the likelihood of McFarlane being able to throw enough strikes to survive is minimal.

And is that 2% chance worth losing a year of control? Major League teams used to err on the side of caution in putting these players on the 40 to protect them. They are easing back on that now since there is just less room on the 40 than there used to be to stash players that are not ready yet.

There are fewer rule 5 success stories these days. The ones that get drafted and stick and productive might be the command and control 93-94 mph that AF loves. The problem with calling it a success is that there are any number of AAAA players that can take steps forward (like Lazar now). They can be acquired and developed outside of the rule 5 restrictions and are also readily replaceable.

Side note - I feel bad for Lazar who absent injury is likely to be sent down for Nola. Or Alvarado. We may need a phantom injury too if we decide to keep Ross and Romano. But it really makes sense to send Lazar down now so the 15 days for recall can set him up for recall as the extra pitcher in September. We know it is probably not going to be Painter now, Lazar is the one with options.

[fish]

There is probably like a 2% chance he could stick all year in a major league bullpen next year.

This is true, but he’s also got the type of arm that teams like the Brewers, Indians, and Rays turn to gold. After watching his last start- he was back to his vintage electric stuff. He just needs to figure out how to can it.

[owaistabish]

Anderson Araujo and Romelli Espinosa in the new BA Top 30 Phillies updated list

[Austinfan]

If he was 22, I'd be patient, but he's 26 and 27 next season - we've seen the Phillies go through plenty of these guys they've signed off the street, but few make it out of AAA ball. And the ones that do usually had some ML success in the past and just had to regain that form (recovering from injuries or a case of the yips).

Look at Mercado (26), McMillon (27), Zuniga (26), Johnson (26), Harper (26) all on LHV.
McGarry is still in AA.

[bigegypt0417]

I always find it strange when you use the age arguments since you seem to identify older minor leaguers for the phillies to focus on.

McGarry...if he can find a little more command could just be a late bloomer...26 used to not be that old.

[Austinfan]

If they thought he was on the cusp of the majors, he's be in AAA using ML baseballs (so there would be no adjustment when called up). The fact that McGarry is behind other high velo RPs who are the same age says they don't envision him in that role right now, and when you run up pitch counts you're at best a 4-5 IP starter.

I look at a certain group of older players as special cases, players who missed a lot of time due to injury or other circumstances so they don't have as many PA or IP as you'd expect at their age - part of development is simply experience, age matters more for physical development, but by 24 you're usually physically mature.

McGarry is somewhat in that category, 134 college IP, 254 minor league - but 82 starts, so some of his limited innings are due to his lack of command (gets pulled early).

[andyb]

Or teams hang onto just about any high velocity reliever they can prior to minor league free agency (and even then they might try to sign them for another year).

Guys like McGarry get more chances as long as they have quality stuff. And if they are not on the 40 they are really not blocking anyone. It is the guy that throws 94 with middling results that gets cast aside when it is hard to see that person be more than a AAAA arm.

[Austinfan]

I'll take Lazar over all the Lehigh RPs throwing 95+ or McGarry.

The guy throwing 94 with middling results usually has average secondary pitches or can't locate his FB.

94 is more than fast enough if you can locate it, and have at least one plus secondary pitch you can throw for strikes.
Heck, Ranger was effective when his velocity dropped in the 90-91 range, he struggled when his command was off.

It's the entire package that matters, McGarry has the repertoire, he just can't consistently command any of his pitches.

[zambonir]

Well I guess when McGarry reaches minor league free agency he can become somebody else's Lazar.

[Austinfan]

Seriously doubt it, he hasn't had success above AA ball.
They're pretty much the same age,
McGarry is having the same season in Reading that he had in 2022 and 2023.
But has yet to show he can translate it to AAA, much less ML.
Probably b/c AAA hitters have more plate discipline, and just spit on his pitches out of the K-zone.

Lazar struggled for a few seasons but turned it around in 2023. Still a marginal ML pitcher, but at least functional as a long RP.

[andyb]

I'll take Lazar over all the Lehigh RPs throwing 95+ or McGarry.

The point is one would not have known that 3 years ago. And Lazar would have been passed over for the harder throwing guy simply because Lazar types are easily found. The Alvarados and Dominguez types of recent years are not so easily found.

Yes Lazar is a development victory, but all teams do that. Pitchers with more stuff are what is prized because they are harder to replace and when they do succeed they are generally better. There is less to differentiate Lazar from somebody like Devin Sweet (just DFA'd) until they actually succeed.

[Austinfan]

You keep equating velocity with "stuff." Which is a mistake the Phillies made the last couple seasons until this draft.
There is a minimum velocity for most pitchers (92-93 for RH, a little less for LH) outside of a few outliers.
After that, stuff is a tradeoff between velocity, movement, command and number of pitches that are average or plus.

Most development jumps for pitchers are either adjustments to mechanics or finding pitches they can master - which is why minor league performance can be misleading their first few seasons as they experiment and adjust.

I don't remember any "older" prospects (24+) significantly improving their command.
I think b/c once a pitcher is physical mature, either he has the body control to repeat his mechanics or he doesn't.
Usually what makes a difference with older pitchers is improving secondary pitches, Alvarado with the cutter, etc.
McGarry had those pitches at a young age, he just can't make them work b/c of lousy command.

[andyb]

I don't equate velocity with stuff. It is an important part of it. Lazar has been successful for several reasons. Deception. Improve velocity (sitting 95, touching 97 these days). And command over several pitches. But his Stuff+ this year is still only 84. He has below average stuff but other parts of his game improved enough for him to succeed. At some point though the deception will be less important and he'll probably regress.

David Robertson has less velocity but more stuff (112 stuff+ last year).

So no, you are incorrect about stuff. Can pitchers win without stuff by changing speeds and having great command (i.e. Ranger). Of course. But teams rightly don't go looking for guys with inferior stuff and hope they succeed with command. It is a path with many failures and few successes. It is a cheap path, so all organizations try to develop the Lazars of the world. It is just not a strategy to go looking for pitchers with mediocre stuff as if they are untapped resources. It is just not true.

[Austinfan]

But command is "stuff."

Command (not control, which is more the willingness to throw strikes) is an attribute just like velocity, in fact, I'd say looking at prospect history that it's easier to coach up velocity (weight training, etc., improved mechanics) than command. Command, like the ability of hitters to see pitches, is probably more innate and a product of body control/properception.

The ability to paint the corners is a tangible skill, no different than throwing a 4 seamer with velocity and spin.

Deception is trickier, if it was easy to coach, all pitchers would be deceptive, but it seems to be limited to a select few. It may be similar to command in that mastering a deceptive delivery means the body control to master mechanics that are too awkward for most pitchers.

Same with the ability to throw all your pitches from the same slot with the same arm speed, if it was easy, all pitchers would do so. Again, it may be a product of body control/coordination, being able to repeat mechanics perfectly.

[andyb]

But what is your point? Nobody says command and control and changing speeds is unimportant. Your previous point is that teams should cut the guys with actual stuff and concentrate on the command guys without stuff. That is what your posts imply.

There just is not a great success rate with your strategy which is why teams do not emphasize that.

[Austinfan]

No. What I mean is they should stop prioritizing velocity and focus on prospects on more balanced skill sets.

Fisher is a good example, low 90s, may add a few MPH as he fills out, but already has good control (command?) and 4 pitches and is a top flight athlete.

"Fisher utilizes a four-pitch mix: fastball, curveball, changeup and slider. His fastball sat in the low to mid 90s, with a high spin rate, and his curveball is sharp."

So instead of a high 90s raw prospect you hope you can teach command, you have a complete package where you don't have to remake him but rather make incremental improvements through training and coaching.

[Squire]

BA updated their Top 30

1. Andrew Painter, RHP
2. Aidan Miller, SS
3. Justin Crawford, CF
4. Aroon Escobar, 2B
5. Gage Wood, RHP
6. Dante Nori, OF
7. Griffin Burkholder, OF
8. Gabriel Rincones, OF
9. Moises Chace, RHP
10. Seth Johnson, RHP
11. Cody Bowker, RHP
12. Devin Saltiban, 2B/OF
13. Jean Cabrera, RHP
14. Carson DeMartini, INF
15. John Spikerman, OF
16. Eiberson Castellano, RHP
17. Alex McFarlane, RHP
18. Keaton Anthony, 1B/OF
19. Matthew Fisher, RHP
20. Ramon Marquez, RHP
21. Alirio Ferrebus, C
22. Cade Obermuller, LHP
23. James Tallon, LHP
24. Wen Hui Pan, RHP
25. Casey Steward, RHP
26. Bryan Rincon, SS
27. Daniel Harper, RHP
28. Romeli Espinosa, SS
29. Anderson Araujo, C
30. Raylin Heredia, OF

[andyb]

Fisher got paid because of his athleticism that could easily lead to more velocity (and command).

Teams will always prioritize velocity though it is never the only factor. And athletic kids tend to add velocity and command. Fisher is not really an example of anything different. Painter and Abel were both seen as relatively athletic and they were even better (and higher priced) prospects because of that. Every prospect is different of course, but Fisher is really NOT evidence of the Phillies changing their philosophy. The stuff on pitch shape that Matt has written about is actually some evidence that the Phillies philosophy has evolved a bit lately. But what you are implying on Fisher is really not evidence of much of anything.

[Matt_Winkelman]

9 of the top 10 SP in baseball by fWAR average over 95 mph on their fastballs, the only exception is Logan Webb.

[Austinfan]

Not surprising, all things held equal, but you're looking at self-selection bias.
The pitchers with both velocity and other elite attributes will be at the top of the list.
But as the 1972 Phillies proved, a HOF #1 starter doesn't keep you from being a terrible team.

A better question would be success rates from draft picks/LA signings, regressed against velocity and other attributes.
Problem would be getting data on those other attributes.
Velocity is the easiest attribute to scout and generally to project.

What you're looking for is identifying the tradeoffs between attributes that allow you to pick the prospects who outperform their draft slots - anyone can pick the uber-talented guys, the top organizations pick the ones who overperform, thus creating excess value.