Prospect Lists - Phillies and Overall - 2022-2026

[allentown]

In the 2014 draft we used our first-round pick (a primo pick at #7) on a RHP whose FB sat 91-94. Nola was our best draft pick over at least the past 15 years, giving the Phillies 35 rWAR and quickly arriving at the major league level. FB velocity is an important weapon, but so is exceptional command and off-speed pitches. I count Nola in most of his years as an ace, in part because what his number of IP contributes to team success.

But, once again, everyone is dug into absolutist positions and quoting facts like how many of the top 10 SPs in baseball have a FB sitting at 95 and plus, when the discussion began about ranking qualities of far, far lesser pitchers like Lazar. Truth is, not many SPs sit above 95 with their FB and baseball needs about 200 SP in the majors every year. There is room for the guys with control and plus off-speed pitches as 3-4-5 guys in the rotations of even good teams. I'd love to have a SP on the Phillies with a plus knuckleball, even if his FB can't through the 90 mph barrier. Superior spin rate can also make a 92 FB superior to a 95 FB. So can exceptional deception and/or extension.

It's easy to select young prospects based upon velocity, but that misses a lot. It;s become a stereotype, like pitcher height used to be. If you're going to select prospects for signing or further development primarily based upon velocity, then you don't even need scouts -- just give a velocity meter to a fan.

[andyb]

Updated ESPN Top 100 and Phillies Top 10.

1. Aidan Miller (10) SS 2
2. Andrew Painter (22) RHP 1
3. Justin Crawford CF 3
4. Gage Wood RHP 7
5. Aroon Escobar 2B 6
6. Dante Nori CF 9
7. Matthew Fisher RHP NR
8. Cade Obermueller LHP NR
9. Sean Youngerman RHP NR
10. Moises Chase RHP NR

Updated top 100 MLB prospect rankings: There's a new No. 1

Updated 2025 top 10 prospect rankings for all 30 MLB teams

[Austinfan]

Interesting article on top minor league starters:

A closer look at new big leaguer Bubba Chandler and the 9 best starters still in...

His best pitches have been the curve, slider and cutter.
4 seamer is above average right now, but that should improve over time as he gets further from surgery.

But they also have him working on a changeup and 2 seamer, even though those are below average pitches right now.
Which tells you that's probably part of a long-term development plan, since he'll need them against LH hitters at the ML level. Gives a hint about their approach, even with a prospect who's close to the majors.

So he'll probably rely on his four best pitches at first, and gradually work in the changeup and 2 seamer as they improve.

[zambonir]

I assume you are talking about Andrew Painter.

> Many around baseball are down on Painter due to some lackluster top-line results in Triple A, but it’s possible that the pitches themselves are better than the overall package right now.

> You could look at this mix and take the negative view, that there’s really only one elite pitch in here once you consider stuff and command, and that only one of his pitches has above-average locations. That’s fair.

> But there’s another way to see this mix. It’s possible that he would look much better if he stopped throwing the sinker and the changeup right now. They are his worst pitches overall, and throwing them is probably costing him with walks and strikeouts. It’s laudable — and predictable — that the Phillies would want him to throw three fastballs and have a large pitch mix, but when you see Painter in the big leagues, he’ll probably focus on the four-seam, cutter and curveball most of all. And those three pitches rate as 60s and 70s.

> Sometimes, guys in the minors really are working on things.

[Austinfan]

Yeah, you want at least one pitch as a RH pitcher that will tail away from LH hitters.
Which explains why they have him working on the changeup and sinker.

I also suspect they'd rather leave him in AAA unless injuries force a recall, he's obviously not 100%, the velocity isn't all the way back and the command is a little erratic. Which is pretty normal the first season after TJ surgery.

He's 22, he's only had 43 starts and 202 minor league innings (plus 6 starts/15 IP in AFL), so there's no reason to rush him.

[andyb]

The question for Painter then for this year is much more about whether they just want to call him up and stick him in the bullpen. He could be something like a 2-inning Kerkering right now and it would be consistent with his innings limit after September 1st. Note this is what the Pirates may be doing with Bubba Chandler now so it is not unprecedented.

It would start the service time clock, but would assume he would still retain rookie status and be eligible for the prospect bonus if he makes the team out of Spring Training next year.

[Austinfan]

But do you want to take him out of the Lehigh rotation which is better preparation for next season?
It's not like he'd be used in the top 5 out of the pen, and might not even be ahead of Ross.

[andyb]

But do you want to take him out of the Lehigh rotation which is better preparation for next season?
It's not like he'd be used in the top 5 out of the pen, and might not even be ahead of Ross.

Yes. If he is one of our best 13 pitchers he should be on the big club. And if simplifying his offerings to his best pitches works best in relief then why not.

One does not "ruin" a pitcher by doing this. Most of this year was about learning things and showing some durability. Mission accomplished. Now ask the question of how best he can help the club within his innings limit.

[flyers19rw]

Painter is at 92.2 IP this season. He might be close to his shut down point. I don’t see the need to overdo it with him in potentially high stress innings. Losing Wheeler sucks but messing with Painter isn’t the solution. Who knows; maybe Wheeler can throw in six weeks and could test his arm out of the BP for an inning or two in the POs?

[zambonir]

I suspect that while the Phillies have changed their public thinking-out-loud about Painter many times, their preference to not hit him with a change in routine/role and effort this late in the game is still a strong one, so long as the need isn't great. I mean, he just has to be better than Lazar or Romano to help in September but that still doesn't seem like a crucial need, and it will be even less so in the playoffs, at least until the NLCS roster. Kerkering's performance in 2023 in once the playoffs hit also not all that inspiring.

The x factor would be injuries, or Nola's performance. Though in the latter case he'd be more likely to get a few starts.

Of course we have no idea if his innings limit is actually 100, 120 or more.

[Austinfan]

They probably don't have a numerical limit, I'd suspect it's more a matter of looking at film and see if he's overcompensating for "tired arm" or something like that.

[zambonir]

Probably more the measurements of stuff and shape and breaks and velocity than the actual video. But certainly true the idea that his career high is the bar for this year is outdated.