Prospect Lists - Phillies and Overall - 2022-2026

[phillychuck]

They seem higher on low-ceiling, likely replacement level players than they usually are. I’d have quite a few draftees in the teens, I think.

[andyb]

Strange list. Seems more like just inserting the new draftees and whomever did the old list had a different philosophy. I'd have Fisher much higher for instance. Do we really believe Spikerman is a better prospect? Even among the new draftees Bowker is 12th and Obermueller (the higher pick) is unranked.

Of the new draftees I am OK with Wood at 7. Fisher should probably be in the 12-15 range. Obermueller low 20s and Bowker slightly behind that. I guess I am leaning more towards bad list than strange list after thinking it through more.

[bigegypt0417]

the top 8 seems solid even if you could tinker with the order.

Abel I think should be higher as he seems to have taken a few steps forward.

Fisher is so far away from ML projection that a top 20 slot for him would seem to point towards organizational weakness.

[andyb]

Fisher is so far away from ML projection that a top 20 slot for him would seem to point towards organizational weakness.

Which is why we went heavy on pitching this draft. After Painter and Abel the cupboard is really thin. Nobody that really projects to more than a back end starter since Chace got hurt. Wood and Fisher at least both project to more mid-rotation upside even if there is lots of risk in a profile like Fisher.

[Matt_Winkelman]

I think it is important to remember BA had Fisher ranked 104 in the draft which is about a 60 spot deviation from pretty much every other outlet. They had Bowker 98 and Obermueller 193. I am very surprised by the gap between Bowker and Fisher, but also it doesn't look like they really re-ranked guys and I don't expect them to make a move on their Fisher evaluation just because he was drafted.

[Austinfan]

Ditto

Andrew Painter, RHP
Aidan Miller, SS
Eduardo Tait, C
Justin Crawford, CF
Aroon Escobar, 2B
Mick Abel, RHP
Gage Wood, RHP
Griffin Burkholder, OF
Gabriel Rincones, OF - 24 and still can't hit in AAA
Moises Chace, RHP - TJ
Seth Johnson, RHP
Cody Bowker, RHP
Dante Nori, CF
Devin Saltiban, INF/OF - below Mendoza line
Jean Cabrera, RHP
Otto Kemp, INF/OF
Hendry Mendez, OF
Carson DeMartini, SS/3B
John Spikerman, OF 
Eibersson Castellano, RHP
Alex McFarlane, RHP
Keaton Anthony, 1B/OF - all he does is hit, can't get no respect
Matthew Fisher, RHP
Alirio Ferrebus, C
Wen Hui Pan, RHP
Casey Steward, RHP
Bryan Rincon, SS
Daniel Harper, RHP
TJ Walton, OF
Raylin Heredia, OF

[bigegypt0417]

Saltiban is 20 years old and had 3 more HR's last year than Keaton Anthony has...in 795 AB's.

I'll Give Saltiban a little more than 150Ab's to get it together.

[Squire]

My Current Top 12 is as follows:

1. Andrew Painter, RHP
2. Mick Abel, RHP
3. Aidan Miller, SS - in jeopardy of falling
4. Justin Crawford, CF
5. Gage Wood, RHP
6. Eduardo Tait, C
7. Aroon Escobar, 2B
8. Otto Kemp, INF/OF
9. Dante Nori, CF
10. Hendry Mendez, OF
11. Carson DeMartini, SS/3B
12. Matthew Fisher, RHP - Assuming he signs

[andyb]

Rincones is a disappointment and Anthony is a surprise at AAA, though they really are not that different. OPS is 704 vs 739 so reasonably close. They are the same age. Rincones as a RF has a bit more defensive value than a 1B. And one could argue his underlying tool (power) could be more value than the hit tool that Anthony has without power. Anthony may be a bit underrated, but it is really hard to be a 1B who is right-handed with below average power. He is probably going to need to show the ability to play OF to have a real chance at the majors.

Rincones is also clearly in danger of having too much miss in the hit vs miss department. At the moment both look like fringe big league prospects.

[andyb]

Keith Law updated top 60.

Painter 7
Miller 25
Crawford 40

Top 60 MLB prospects: Kevin McGonigle, Max Clark top newest rankings

[biggsphils]

Miller, 0-4 last night, now batting .222, 2nd year in a row struggling, is it time to start worrying, I don't want any excuses that that he is young for AA

[bigegypt0417]

Did he struggle for 2 years in a row? He was pretty good across 3 teams last year...

[andyb]

The Keith Law comment says his big problem is offspeed pitches. He can't recognize them and swings and misses often. This is certainly something that can be learned (and his tools rate well), but it is also a yellow flag to watch and hope for some improvement. Law still ranks him highly at 25 on his tools, but the comment makes me think that ranking is a bit high unfortunately.

[bigegypt0417]

Agreed...this year has been brutal but I hope he does work his way through it since he has all the tools.

[phillychuck]

I understand that pitch recognition is theoretically something that can improve, but I don’t remember any prospect we’ve ever had actually improving on this. The flag is very close to red for me...sort of a blood orange...

[bigegypt0417]

Prospects make incremental improvements in pitch recognition on a regular basis....if they didn't, you'd need see players develop. This is especially true when players move from seeing HS pitchers to college or minor league pitching.

This isn't to say Miller will be able to make that progression but it certainly isn't out of the question or all that uncommon...especially for the better prospects.

[zambonir]

Well, he'll fit right on the big league club. Or, prrhaps the Diamondbacks will be able to unlock his potential.

[andyb]

In Miller's favor he still has a strong walk rate which suggests he does have a good idea of the strike zone. That plus really good batspeed do give him the building blocks to succeed if he can do a better job of recognizing spin.

[julio]

I understand that pitch recognition is theoretically something that can improve, but I don’t remember any prospect we’ve ever had actually improving on this. The flag is very close to red for me...sort of a blood orange...

Blood orange…or pink grapefruit?

[andyb]

Ranking update and trade deadline preview from Matt:

Phillies 2025 Midseason Prospect Ranking and Trade Deadline Preview