Prospect Lists - Phillies and Overall - 2022-2026

[owaistabish]

I am up on Mendez too, but maybe 25th up to the 11-15 range. Moore not so much.

Lol wow very high on Mendez.

[Squire]

I think my current Top 6 is

1. Andrew Painter, RHP
2. Mick Abel, RHP
3. Aidan Miller, SS
4. Aroon Escobar, 2B
5. Eduardo Tait, C
6. Otto Kemp, INF/OF

Everything else is Injured or MIA or Disappointing. My next two would probably be DeMartini and Ferrebus.

[phillychuck]

I think my current Top 6 is

Andrew Painter, RHP
Mick Abel, RHP
Aidan Miller, SS
Aroon Escobar, 2B
Eduardo Tait, C
Otto Kemp, INF/OF

Everything else is Injured or MIA or Disappointing. My next two would probably be DeMartini and Ferrebus.

Good list--I always seem to miss a few starters that are having good years and throw hard in the A-levels and below, and I’m never sure whether relievers are actually prospects or just guys who are effective at their levels but limited.

Mendez has a 130 OPS+ and is young for AA, he’s not disappointing so far.
I’m happy with Crawford’s success in AAA especially given his age.
Keaton Anthony is still prospect-age for AA and hitting well.

[dicemen99]

I think my current Top 6 is

1. Andrew Painter, RHP
2. Mick Abel, RHP
3. Aidan Miller, SS
4. Aroon Escobar, 2B
5. Eduardo Tait, C
6. Otto Kemp, INF/OF

Everything else is Injured or MIA or Disappointing. My next two would probably be DeMartini and Ferrebus.

1. Painter
2. Miller
3. Crawford
4. Abel
5. Tait
6. Escobar

Having Kemp in your top six before Crawford is not good.

Painter is Painter and Miller is coming on as one of the youngest players in his league. If he can stick at SS he could be a star.

Crawford has a lot of tools and I think there is power in him as he fills his frame. Just needs a swing tweak. Abel has put himself back in the picture.

Tait and Escobar still have a ways to go, but I think Tait is like a year and a half younger than Escobar and has a bigger frame for adding power - he should still be ahead of Escobar IMO.

[andyb]

Kemp has certainly improved as a prospect, though I just can't put him above guys like Nori and Burkholder even though they have so much risk in their profile. Kemp is probably 11-15 for me.

1. Painter
2. Miller
3. Crawford
4. Escobar
5. Tait
6. Abel
7. Burkholder
8. Nori
9. DeMartini
10. Cabrera
11. Rincones
12. Seth Johnson
13. Kemp
14. Saltiban
15. Chace

Large dropoff in talent after 6.

[phillychuck]

The middle tier of the system has fallen through the floor for the most part. I wonder if it’s part of the adaptation to the new style of drafting and the new levels? Really hard to get a read on Burkholder and Nori so far. Hard place for a HS draftee to find success in year 2...

[zambonir]

Squire did you maybe forget Crawford? Or is he 7?

[Squire]

Ok yeah, I screwed up my list in that I forgot Crawford. I'd still have him at 4-5. I understand the thought process on ranking Kemp I just disagree with it. I weight the % likelihood of making some positive contribution at the major league level pretty highly. I also give some value to the notion that Kemp's career arc does seem to allow for the possibility that he was just a scouting miss because of the injuries.

[zambonir]

I weight the % likelihood of making some positive contribution at the major league level pretty highly.

Which is an interesting philosophical question always isn't it? Like, in no way is Kemp as highly rated a prospect as Mickey Moniak or Maikel Franco or Scott Kingery once were, but he could end up having more WAR and a longer career than any of them just by turning into Kody Clemens (or a better Darrick Hall) for a few years.

OTOH, he might just be Kody Clemens or a not-better Darrick Hall.

[Austinfan]

I look more at improvement with prospects, while Kemp is putting up great numbers, he still Ks too much. But as I pointed out, he's way behind his age in terms of PA, so what I want to see is less chase, better contact without sacrificing power. If he can do that, they'll find a position b/c a guy with 30 HR potential can play somewhere.

Guys like Buckholder just need to have strong second halves, we don't know if they're struggling b/c of talent or working on adjustments to their swings, etc.

[phillychuck]

Burkholder?

Both Nori and Burkholder would really rise on our lists if they can have even decent second halves--say 720 OPS or so. As I’ve said a couple of times, the “new” minor league system is really difficult for good-but-not-great high school prospects.

[andyb]

I weight the % likelihood of making some positive contribution at the major league level pretty highly.

Wouldn't that mean you might rate a Seth Johnson pretty highly then? Reportedly 98-99 in relief the past few outings and now he is in the majors with a chance to stay there the rest of the year.

[Squire]

Yes. Though I do discount relievers to starters a tick. But he'd be in the 8-10 area. If I had to do a Top 10 right now

1. Andrew Painter, RHP
2. Mick Abel, RHP
3. Aidan Miller, SS
4. Justin Crawford, CF
5. Aroon Escobar, 2B
6. Eduardo Tait, C (if i was more confident he'd be a catcher he'd go to either 4 or 5)
7. Otto Kemp, INF/OF
8. Carson DeMartini, 3B
9. Seth Johnson, RHP
10. Alirio Ferrebus, C

I just don't know how much to value ceiling when guys are OPS'ing in the low 600s or are constantly injured. I was completely prepared to go all in on Devin Saltiban. Guy tore the cover off the ball in pre-season and the season started and he OPS'd .588 in 25 games (108 plate appearances).