Phillies Sign Odubel Herrera to Multi-Year Contract!

julio 2016-12-15 21:20:46 UTC #1

Lawman 2016-12-15 21:22:04 UTC #2

Not sure I saw this one coming. Maybe it makes sense if they want to trade him....gives trade partners certainty that he won't go to arbitration.

julio 2016-12-15 21:27:14 UTC #3

andyb 2016-12-15 21:34:27 UTC #5

Seems like a great deal. 5 years and $30.5 million. Since he has one more pre-arbitration year that is really 4/30 for his 3 arbitration years and 1 free agent year. 3/5/11/11 or something like that. Plus 2 reasonable options and maybe that buyout is counted in the $30.5 million.

This seems to be the most favorable deal we have done with a good young player since Chase.

julio 2016-12-15 21:35:39 UTC #6

Yes, any buyout of the club options should be included in the stated guaranteed value; that's standard procedure.

julio 2016-12-15 21:37:30 UTC #7

Corey Seidman's CSNPhilly writeup on the signing:

bkeich 2016-12-15 21:59:24 UTC #8

My only question is "Who is Herrrera's agent?". Honestly, I think I could get him a better deal. Having 2 club options at the end of this for the meager amounts of 1.5 WAR or so (by then) is a great deal for us fans and for the Phils, but Odubel seems like he could have done better.

Good for the team to get a very solid player locked up for a long time, especially since he can reasonably play all 3 OF positions and might even still be able to play 2B (or at least provide backup in that area). Really llikeable player, good to see him get this degree of stability.

Best Rule V pick ever? Well, Vic gives him a run, but so far I give the edge to Odubel. (Victorino of course is a "complete" record, so Odubel has to keep it up to win the discussion).

andyb 2016-12-15 22:07:26 UTC #9

Fangraphs values WAR at $8 million per for 2017. Then they raise it by 5% a year which is really conservative given the increases in revenues the past decade (closer to 10%).

With that formula 2022 and 2023 are valued at $10.2 million and $10.7 million per win respectively. This is just a really team friendly deal with virtually no downside. And Herrera probably has huge trade value through most of it if he continues to play well. For this sort of team friendly deal he really should have been given some no trade protection.

Austinfan 2016-12-15 22:10:55 UTC #10

You don't know his situation, for all we know he prefers the money now (maybe he has family that needs help) and being set for life over being fiilthy rich in four years if he stays healthy and continues to produce. It's not irrational, a few million now may be worth a lot more than $50M five years from now that he'll just waste on a McMansion and expensive cars.

My advice to a potential client would be to play it safe and save your money on the first deal, gamble on the second deal.

For the Phillies it locks in an affordable starter for the indefinite future and makes him affordable as a 4th OF playing 400 PA a year if he does decline or develops a severe platoon split.

I'd also point out that the gravy days for sports are probably over, there are some ominious signs for ESPN as younger viewers don't want to pay for an increasingly expensive cable channel - without ESPN and local cable deals escalating, sports revenue may flat line - there's only so many advertising dollars and the internet is competing for them.

People who don't know economic history have a habit of escalating revenue streams indefinitely, but sports can't swallow the entire advertising expenditures, and ticket prices are maxed, as are luxury boxes - and don't think there's a pot of gold in subscribtion services - ask the music industry about that!

julio 2016-12-15 22:23:09 UTC #11

Jim Salisbury confirms the absence of a no-trade clause:

zambonir 2016-12-15 22:45:00 UTC #12

Seems like a good deal for both teams. if he falters or gets injured he's got a lot of money coming. In exchange for that security he's giving some up should the Phillies want to pick up one or both of those options.

And yeah it sure makes him tradeable but probably not in the next two years, even w/o a NTC there had to be some level of commitment in the negotiations (and gratitude on Herrera's part)

Presumably we'll be having this same conversation about Franco a year from now, if all goes well.

Obviously Herrera doesn't have to stay in center but this also does make Roman Quinn a bit more tradeable (and suggests the Phillies are still, understandably, worried about his durability).

Lucky_Beagle 2016-12-16 01:19:22 UTC #13

I still question whether Victorino should be considered a Rule 5 player. If memory serves me right he passed through waivers and was even offered back to his original team. He was not wanted by any organization with the Rule 5 conditions.

bkeich 2016-12-16 02:02:37 UTC #14

You are correct, the Phils didnt "keep him" and he passed through Waivers and the Dodgers didnt want him back so the Phils sent him to the minors where he really put things together fast.

I still count him as a Rule V because that is how we acquired him, I almost count the other part as a waiver / DFA. I bet there were alot of teams that wished they had ponied up the $50K.

George Bell was also a very good player that the Phils lost in the Rule V draft in 1980. He went on to have a pretty good career (12 years, 113 OPS+, 20 WAR) (The Rule V was very different then, it was only 2 years after he was signed)

tom81 2016-12-16 02:47:10 UTC #15

I really like this deal. Odubel is the face of the franchise now IMO.

zambonir 2016-12-16 02:48:09 UTC #16

I guess you have to say the Phillies were smart to take him but dumb to return him. And then lucky.

Question is, would his career have gone differently had he been forced to spend all of 2005 in the majors (without the bad team/playing time that was here for Herrera)?

And would some of the Phillies' moves have gone differently had he not developed? That one is hard to say, as they traded Marlon Byrd, acquired Aaron Rowand and traded away Abreu, but I'm not sure Vic's performance in either AAA or '06 emboldened them to do any of those things, even though he wound up replacing Abreu (and eventually Rowand too).

flyers19rw 2016-12-16 03:47:35 UTC #17

I like this deal. Now we will start to see the franchise of the future starting to come into view. Franco and Herrera are two of the position players. This season should bring along opportunities for others-JPC, Joseph, Alfaro, and, perhaps, Quinn.

julio 2016-12-16 04:15:38 UTC #18

As usual, while the Philly beat writers reported a few basics, and then turned to fluff and nothing, the real reporters at the AP have dug out the details of the Herrera contract:

Herrera receives a $1.75 million signing bonus payable by Dec. 31 and $1.25 million next season, the last before he would have been eligible for salary arbitration.

He will make $3 million in 2018, $5 million in 2019, $7 million in 2020 and $10 million in 2021 -- when he would have been eligible for free agency. The Phillies have an $11.5 million option for 2022 with a $2.5 million buyout. If that is exercised, the team would have a $12.5 million option for 2023 with a $1 million buyout.

Austinfan 2016-12-16 05:20:05 UTC #19

Basically if Herrera were to become a FA in 2021 at age 29, if he was still a 3 WAR player, he'd probably get a 5 year, $100M deal depending how he aged (i.e. could he still play CF or would he move to LF). Because going forward teams would project around 12-13 WAR (a dropoff after age 30). I predict the combination of a "hard" salary cap and revenues flatlining will end outrageous FA contracts (because you can't escalate out of cap hell).

So instead he gets $34M for those first three years (assuming he's worth the options, otherwise he might be playing for $3-5M at best as a reserve OF) instead of say $60M. Meanwhile he gets $3+M early that he wouldn't get and guarantees his arbitration years.

So he's essentially leaving $20-30M on the table five years out he might never see to guarantee $30M.
If he plans to return to LA after his career is over, he's guaranteed enough money to live like a king, while getting enough money early to take care of himself and his family - so it comes down to what you value - money you need now or money you might want but shouldn't need (unless you piss everything away) later.

zambonir 2016-12-16 05:36:19 UTC #20

Good find. But the nature of the beast. It still takes a leaker more than true digging. National writers have sources in the MLB office, and agents. Local writers are more at the team's mercy (I'm sure Salisbury's "major league source" was within the Phillies, and he and Zolecki both work for companies that are financial partners with the team).

Of course now the Philly papers (and remember, they only have one beat writer between them) can just use AP's info, since they are an AP member.

If it was a bigger-name player or the Phillies were contenders, presumably someone like Rosenthal would have had it (as it is it's not even on the Fox Sports' MLB home page).

donaldorc 2016-12-16 15:55:11 UTC #21

I am delighted by this signing. I think the terms of the agreement are justifiable, and I am glad that they have him sewed up for the next number of years. They could, of course, trade him, but at this point his future is with the Phillies. I know he has his distractors, but I love the energy he brings to the diamond. I think he has made the necessary adjustments to be a great contributor over the next few years. I hve always agreed with California Dreamin's assessment of him, and love that he was a rule 5 find.