Phillies Sign Odubel Herrera to Multi-Year Contract!

[julio]

I am delighted by this signing. I think the terms of the agreement are justifiable, and I am glad that they have him sewed up for the next number of years. They could, of course, trade him, but at this point his future is with the Phillies.

The terms of the agreement are way beyond "justifiable," IMHO - unless you're talking about Herrera being able to justify them to his family!

They're overpaying Odubel (by about 1/2 million) for 2017, since he's not yet arbitration-eligible. Given his actual performance, his 2018-2020 salaries are likely in the general ballpark of what he'd command year-to-year during his arbitration years. The 2021-2023 numbers? If Herrera continues to produce at his current rate, those salaries are a steal for the Phillies.

[LoneStarPhan]

Yes, but if Herrera tanks, gets hurt, or whatever, and suddenly is not in the starting lineup, he gets the guaranteed money. If you make the guaranteed contract pay the projected earnings assuming he continues to play at the same or even better level, then the club is usually the loser. The Phillies get a potential bargain while Herrera gets guaranteed money that will change the his life and the lives of his loved ones.

[andyb]

They actually are paying Herrera $3 million for 2017 with the bonus included. So part of this deal was really overpaying him by $2+ million in the first year. This is smart frontloading by the Phillies and was probably one of the reason Herrera agreed to a very team friendly deal.

[julio]

They actually are paying Herrera $3 million for 2017 with the bonus included. So part of this deal was really overpaying him by $2+ million in the first year. This is smart frontloading by the Phillies and was probably one of the reason Herrera agreed to a very team friendly deal.

The bonus is payable in 2016 - by 12/31 at the latest. We could consider that part of his 2017 compensation...or not. I agree that fronting the bonus makes the deal more attractive to Herrera - the net present value is more attractive than had those dollars been spread.

Regardless - the Phils have committed $30.5 million to Herrera, for five years. That's $500k more than they paid Ryan Howard for just 2016 (including the 2017 buyout). In other words, it's not enough to create any significant constraint on their overall salary budget, in any of the contract years. If Herrera turns into Steve Jeltz, it's an unproductive sunk cost - but not enough of a sunk cost to create problems. If he continues to produce something like 4 WAR/season, it's a bargain. At the same time, if Herrera manages that money wisely (at all), he's now already financially secure for life. Anything additional - endorsements, follow-on contracts, etc. - is gravy. Good deal for everybody.

Further - quite likely below-market contract in the out-years, for a player who will be relatively young for the term of the contract, with no restrictions on trading him...which means the contract will be easily traded, if the Phils want to do that at some point.

I simply cannot find anything to "not like" about this deal - except perhaps that it's Herrera's name on the contract, instead of mine!

[Philsmania]

Even though I personally am not completely sold on Herrera (he does some boneheaded things sometimes), I would agree with those who say this is a smart deal.

[Phils2020]

Steve Jeltz,

good steve jeltz reference. i was just talking to someone on facebook about him being one of the worst players i have ever seen. Offensively at least, he was.

I like the Herrera deal. I am really suprised there was not a no trade clause on the deal. Now we just need some other outfielders around Herrera. I think Nick WIlliams will be there at the end of this year and Moniak when he is ready.

[andyb]

These kinds of deals are always a little bit of a risk for teams in terms of a young player getting hurt or failing, but on balance they are great for teams. Everyone jumps on giving Jon Singleton $10 million before he even played in the majors. Yes that contract looks like a failure. But it is a fraction of what Howard made last year. We also just paid Charlie Morton $9 million (including the buyout) to make 4 starts.

And the Morton deal was probably a good gamble to the team. On balance these relatively low dollar deals for young players almost always work. Even if Herrera is considered a failure, the money we are paying him for 5 years is worth about 3.5 WAR - in other words it is the change in the owner's pocket.

[harrisburghusker]

I don't see any down side to this deal and hopefully allows Odubel to relax and play like did in the first third of the last season

[zambonir]

I know it's pure mythmaking but it does seem like that would mean something to him. He's the CF. He's the Phillies best player (currently). No more doubts about his position or his future and if he occasionally still clashes with the manager it won't be a big deal.

Even though, as the Philly.com story noted today, he could be traded just as quickly as Adam Eaton was. Except it won't be because the Phillies are rebuilding, if so.

[donaldorc]

Breen: Phillies hope contract doesn't make Herrera ...

Breen thinks that the reason Herrera tailed off after the All-star break, was because his nomination went to his head, and signing this contract could do the same.

But Mackanin and general manager Matt Klentak said they have no reason to worry.

"What it boils down to is a belief in the person," Klentak said. "We believe that what Odubel has demonstrated to us over the last couple years with his work ethic and his on-field abilities and energy level, this is a player that should not be affected by a contract like this. We strongly believe that. If we didn't believe that, we would not have done this."

[julio]

Breen: Phillies hope contract doesn't make Herrera ...

Breen thinks that the reason Herrera tailed off after the All-star break, was because his nomination went to his head, and signing this contract could do the same.

> But Mackanin and general manager Matt Klentak said they have no reason to worry.

> "What it boils down to is a belief in the person," Klentak said. "We believe that what Odubel has demonstrated to us over the last couple years with his work ethic and his on-field abilities and energy level, this is a player that should not be affected by a contract like this. We strongly believe that. If we didn't believe that, we would not have done this."

Breen needed to write a story. This, unfortunately, has the character of a hit job.

The headline says "Phillies hope contract doesn't make Herrera complacent." But there is nothing in the article to suggest that anybody in the organization is concerned about that... so where does the "hope" come from? Where is there concern?

Breen writes, "So you can't blame the Phillies if they were a bit leery that the five-year contract they awarded Herrera on Thursday could have a similar effect." But again, there is nothing in the story that indicates anybody in the organization is "a bit leery" at all. Nothing.

Halfway through the story, Breen addresses what the Phils actually said: "But Mackanin and general manager Matt Klentak said they have no reason to worry."

So... Who is "worried" here? Matt Breen?

The whole basis of Breen's premise (and based on his article, there's no evidence that it is anything other than Matt Breen's own idea here) is that Herrera struggled at the plate for a period of weeks last summer, after his All-Star selection. Breen implies the two are related, and apparently infers "complacency." Doesn't even address other possible explanations - random coincidence, or perhaps actually Herrera pressing a bit, trying too hard, after the All-Star accolade?

Poor journalism, unless Breen has additional information about what some in the front office were thinking - information that he chose not to share with his readers.

[bkeich]

Agree completely.

Anyone who has watched Herrera play would have the opposite fear. His effort sometimes gets the better of him and he tries too hard to make something happen, especially at the plate. He is a high energy, high effort guy and overswinging and going into at bats with the idea of making the "big" hit too often. This to me is somewhat a degree of just being young and talented.

I have absolutely no fear of Herrera loafing now that he has his pay day. He is an exciting player and as he learns to control his aggression a little better he will improve on being a pretty good player already.

Oddly enough I would say the exact same thing about Franco. They are two guys with the same "issue" which showed up last year. While a guy trying to do too much is a bad thing it is a hard to criticise as a fan. Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino and a few others have had the same "issue" and it more than worked out for them.

[zambonir]

Mackanin is the one who publicly suggested Herrera got complacent after the all-star selection (as Breen says in the second paragraph of this story). But he also wasn't overly concerned about it then - even if that was the reason. To Mackanin it was still just another slump/thing to work through.

And yes, the premise doesn't carry over to the story and the future at all.

But that's Internet-driven headline writing for you these days. It should have really read, "Phillies are confident new contract won't affect Herrera's play."

[Philsmania]

Herrera's a cool dude. He interacts with fans on his Facebook page. And, it's definitely his page, not a fan-produced page. He commented on a comment of mine this morning.

[zambonir]

Thanks for that tip. Obviously has someone doing it with/for him, but that's fun.

[Austinfan]

Herrera's problem was the league adjusted to his adjustment, he started the year becoming far more disciplined at the plate, pitchers then responded by pounding the inside of the plate instead of nibbling, hoping to get him to chase, and Herrera got frustrated. He'll learn to turn on those pitches, and then pitchers will nibble more, he'll get more walks and eventually there will be an equilibrium, he'll show he can handle most piches.

[Philsmania]

Thanks for that tip. Obviously has someone doing it with/for him, but that's fun.

For you and anyone else who may be interested, here's his page...

https://www.facebook.com/odubelherreraoficial/

[andyb]

Interesting tidbit on Franco from this Philly.com blog post:

Why the Phillies made a $30.5 million wager on Odub...

"Franco signed away 10 percent of his future earnings for $4.35 million up front as part of a branding deal with a company called Fantex."

Given the suit he had against him for delaying his service time, I am thinking it is much less likely that Franco wants an extension. Plus, his offensive numbers are much better than his defensive numbers (Herrera has more value on the defensive side) so an analytics-minded GM like Klentak is less likely to overpay for the home runs without other value. Franco has already guaranteed his first few million which makes arbitration less risky and potentially more rewarding.

My guess is they go year to year. Hopefully it does not get ugly because it is not like we have any other viable 3B options in the upper minors at this point.

[Carver]

New guy here.

Love the new deal for Odubel; finally some good news from the front office. And I completely understand why a guy signs early at a potentially discounted rate, especially for his first deal The difference between a half million (say that he craters this year due to injury and never makes it back) and $30M guaranteed is life-changing forever...the difference between $30M and some guess at an upside if he takes the full risk and wins ($60-$80M?) is merely yacht upgrading.

And a sound risk for the Phils with some real upside as well...lots to like about this guy. Sure - he has a few potential warts, but seems to have a solid work ethic and desire to improve, and he is one heck of a talented albeit slightly raw hitter.