Phillies Series Performance Tracker

[VoteForKalas]

June 2025:
0-1 MIL
1-2 TOR
0-3 PIT
2-1 CHI
3-0 TOR
3-1 MIA
2-1 NYM
0-3 HOU
2-1 ATL
1-0 SDP

July 2025
1-1 SDP
2-1 CIN
1-2 SFG
1-2 SDP
1-2 LAA
2-1 BOS
2-1 NYY

Actual record: 60-45
Expected winning % record (7/28/25): 60-45
493 RS & 419 RA (+74)

Upcoming in July
CWS (3)

[VoteForKalas]

July 2025
1-1 SDP
2-1 CIN
1-2 SFG
1-2 SDP
1-2 LAA
2-1 BOS
2-1 NYY
1-2 CWS

Actual record: 61-47
Expected winning % record (7/31/25): 61-47
504 RS & 437 RA (+67)

Upcoming in August
DET (3)
BALT (3)
Day Off
TXR (3)
CIN (3)
WSH (4)
SEA (3)
Day Off
WSH (3)
NYM (3)
ATL (4)

Pretty tough schedule, heavy AL to start and heavy division matchups at the end, only 2 days off

[VoteForKalas]

July 2025
1-1 SDP
2-1 CIN
1-2 SFG
1-2 SDP
1-2 LAA
2-1 BOS
2-1 NYY
1-2 CWS

August 2025
2-1 DET

Actual record: 63-48
Expected winning % record (8/4/25): 63-48
516 RS & 448 RA (+68)

Upcoming in August
BALT (3)
Day Off
TXR (3)
CIN (3)
WSH (4)
SEA (3)
Day Off
WSH (3)
NYM (3)
ATL (4)

[zambonir]

I guess when your last three games are 5-4, 7-5 and 2-0 your RD isn't going to change much.

Really too bad about Chicago getting sandwiched between two series wins over potential World Series opponents. Thought the Yankees are not quite that lately

[phillychuck]

July = treading water...

[zambonir]

But so were the Mets. We're now 13-13 since July 1, Mets 14-12. Both teams 8-7 since the break.

Dodgers 12-15 since July 1, 7-8 since the break.

Brewers are the team that looks like they might run away with the NL though they are starting to have the injury trouble Phillies have already been enduring.

They are, as ever, a good home team. They should have won maybe two more games in July [one in Chicago and one at home against Anaheim]. One more win on the West trip would have been nice.

[BostonRoss]

I guess when your last three games are 5-4, 7-5 and 2-0 your RD isn't going to change much.

Really too bad about Chicago getting sandwiched between two series wins over potential World Series opponents. Thought the Yankees are not quite that lately

Tonight might change that

[zambonir]

Well yeah. Who knows. Should be a fun AL East race. Wasn't that long ago we were talking your guys [such as it is] as sellers. And if it's Toronto the Phillies have already won the equivalent of a best-of-seven against them. Except that by that logic they've already been knocked off by the Mets or Brewers in NLDS.

[VoteForKalas]

July 2025
1-1 SDP
2-1 CIN
1-2 SFG
1-2 SDP
1-2 LAA
2-1 BOS
2-1 NYY
1-2 CWS

August 2025
2-1 DET
2-1 BALT

Actual record: 65-49
Expected winning % record (8/7/25): 65-49
535 RS & 456 RA (+79)

Upcoming in August
Day Off
@TXR (3)
@CIN (3)
@WSH (4)
SEA (3)
Day Off
WSH (3)
@NYM (3)
ATL (4)

[zambonir]

I guess it's a little late to suggest this now but might you either add an @ to the road games or don't capitalize the road opponents?

[jimbomill]

Thanks - this is pretty cool stuff.
I am not following the "Expected winning % record" entries as they seem to be matching the Actual record, usually posted on the line above "Expected".

[zambonir]

Expected W-L is calculated via run differential. For a while now the Phillies have been that rare team where they match. You can see them for every team at the MLB standings page.

Mets are currently two wins better than their X W-L. Cubs are two wins worse. Brewers actually match, like us. Pythagorean skeptics believe the stat is skewed by blowout games but over 162 it's usually fairly accurate/descriptive [if you're a team that wins or loses a lot of blowouts that probably still reflects your overall run production or prevention]. If you are a team out or under-performing your RD by a lot that is usually a reason for pessimism or optimism, that the actual record will eventually catch up.

[Philsmania]

On pace for 92-70 finish.

A lot of parity in Baseball this year.

[zambonir]

Current Fangraphs projection is 97.7% playoffs, 74.0% division, 34.1% bye.

11.6% to win WS, trailing only Dodgers.

Dodgers and Brewers are 99.4 and 99.3% playoffs and 63.2/58.9 for bye.

[Philsmania]

Expected W-L is calculated via run differential. For a while now the Phillies have been that rare team where they match. You can see them for every team at the MLB standings page.

Mets are currently two wins better than their X W-L. Cubs are two wins worse. Brewers actually match, like us. Pythagorean skeptics believe the stat is skewed by blowout games but over 162 it's usually fairly accurate/descriptive [if you're a team that wins or loses a lot of blowouts that probably still reflects your overall run production or prevention]. If you are a team out or under-performing your RD by a lot that is usually a reason for pessimism or optimism, that the actual record will eventually catch up.

Phillies, Tigers and Brewers have all played to even pythagorean luck. Yankees have been remarkably unlucky. Mets have actually been lucky.

2025 Major League Baseball Standings & Expanded Standings |...

[VoteForKalas]

July 2025
1-1 SDP
2-1 CIN
1-2 SFG
1-2 SDP
1-2 LAA
2-1 BOS
2-1 NYY
1-2 CWS

August 2025
2-1 DET
2-1 BALT
3-0 TXR

Actual record: 68-49
Expected winning % record (8/11/25): 68-49
551 RS & 461 RA (+90)

Upcoming in August
@CIN (3)
@WSH (4)
SEA (3)
Day Off
WSH (3)
@NYM (3)
ATL (4)

[Philsmania]

We're still playing to even luck form. Remarkable.

[VoteForKalas]

It is remarkable, rarely seen it stay on par for this long.

[EastFallowfield]

ESPN's expected results are a game better than the actual record. 70-48 vs 69-49. Time to match that one!

[zambonir]

Do they use a different formula?