Phillies Series Performance Tracker

[phillychuck]

Almost all of them use RS^2/(RS^2+RA^2)*Game Played and round it. I suspect they are rounding differently, or using 1.83 instead of 2 for the power (1.83 is considered slightly more accurate). Interestingly, the power varies from sport to sport.

RS = runs scored
RA = runs allowed

[zambonir]

Well, yeah, but if ESPN's is different from MLB's and BBRef's it's either a mistake or they do something different.

[phillychuck]

One of them may use 1.83 as the power rather than 2.

In football the power is close to 2.5, and in hockey it’s like 2.15. In the NBA the power is huge, like 14. Different run or point environments lead to different powers for expected winning percentage.

[VoteForKalas]

July 2025
1-1 SDP
2-1 CIN
1-2 SFG
1-2 SDP
1-2 LAA
2-1 BOS
2-1 NYY
1-2 CWS

August 2025
2-1 DET
2-1 BALT
3-0 TXR
1-2 CIN

Actual record: 69-51
Expected winning % record (8/14/25): 68-52
556 RS & 476 RA (+80)

Upcoming in August
@WSH (4)
SEA (3)
Day Off
WSH (3)
@NYM (3)
ATL (4)

We are no longer totally in sync with our expected W-L record, but only one game off.

[zambonir]

So we won one game 4-1 and lost two games by a combined score of 14-1 and WE still says we should have won another game in there?

[EastFallowfield]

Back to dead even with MLB's expected W/L. Still a game behind on ESPN.

[VoteForKalas]

July 2025
1-1 SDP
2-1 CIN
1-2 SFG
1-2 SDP
1-2 LAA
2-1 BOS
2-1 NYY
1-2 CWS

August 2025
2-1 DET
2-1 BALT
3-0 TXR
1-2 CIN
2-2 WSH
3-0 SEA

Actual record: 74-53
Expected winning % record (8/21/25): 74-53
604 RS & 505 RA (+99)

Upcoming in August
Day Off
WSH (3)
@NYM (3)
ATL (4)

[Philsmania]

Back to even luck again.

94 win pace at present.

[VoteForKalas]

July 2025
1-1 SDP
2-1 CIN
1-2 SFG
1-2 SDP
1-2 LAA
2-1 BOS
2-1 NYY
1-2 CWS

August 2025
2-1 DET
2-1 BALT
3-0 TXR
1-2 CIN
2-2 WSH
3-0 SEA
2-1 WSH

Actual record: 76-54
Expected winning % record (8/24/25): 76-54
617 RS & 516 RA (+101)

Upcoming in August
@NYM (3)
ATL (4)

[Philsmania]

95 win pace.

[zambonir]

I can't believe we still have a West Coast road trip in September. Including the Dodgers.

What's the tiebreaker if head-to-head doesn't do it? We went 3-3 against Padres, are 2-1 against LA for now.

[EastFallowfield]

Phils now a game better than the MLB expected won/loss but exactly even with the ESPN version.

[zambonir]

Athletic says playoff odds are 100% but it's really 99.9%.

[VoteForKalas]

August 2025
2-1 DET
2-1 BALT
3-0 TXR
1-2 CIN
2-2 WSH
3-0 SEA
2-1 WSH
0-3 NYM
3-1 ATL

Actual record: 79-58
Expected winning % record (9/1/25): 79-58
650 RS & 551 RA (+99)

Upcoming in September
@MIL (3)
@FLA (3)
NYM (4)
KC (3)
@LAD (3)
@AZ ((3)
FLA (3)
MN (3)

Strong August that allowed us to increase our % of a playoff spot and build a lead in the division. We only lost 2 series the entire month.

Tied for 5th (NYM) in the NL for Runs Scored behind LAD, AZ, CHC and MIL. If expanded to include the AL, Phillies are tied for 9th (NYM) behind the four above and NYY, BOS, TOR and DET .Besides AZ, those are all teams on track to make the playoffs.

Ranked 3rd in the NL in Runs Allowed, behind only MIL and SDP. If expanded to the AL, they rank 5th behind the two NL teams and TEX and KC.

[VoteForKalas]

August 2025
2-1 DET
2-1 BALT
3-0 TXR
1-2 CIN
2-2 WSH
3-0 SEA
2-1 WSH
0-3 NYM
3-1 ATL

September 2025
2-1 MIL
2-1 MIA

Actual record: 83-60
Expected winning % record (9/8/25): 83-60
682 RS & 575 RA (+107)

Upcoming in September
NYM (4)
KC (3)
@LAD (3)
@AZ ((3)
MIA (3)
MN (3)

Mets September Schedule
@PHI (4)
TEX (3)
SDP (3)
WSH (3)
@CHC (3)
@MIA (3)

[Philsmania]

Mets definitely have tge tougher schedule. Dodgers are the Phillies last opponent currently with a winning record.

[zambonir]

Oh, do we care about the Mets?

(I know, give it four more days at least.)

[Philsmania]

And yes, we continue to play to even luck after 143 games.

And, to add a tiny nitpick, FLA has been MIA for a few years now.

[VoteForKalas]

Good call

[VoteForKalas]

August 2025
2-1 DET
2-1 BALT
3-0 TXR
1-2 CIN
2-2 WSH
3-0 SEA
2-1 WSH
0-3 NYM
3-1 ATL

September 2025
2-1 MIL
2-1 MIA
4-0 NYM
1-0 KC

Actual record: 88-60
Expected winning % record (9/13/25): 87-61
717 RS & 587 RA (+130)

Upcoming in September
KC (2)
@LAD (3)
@AZ ((3)
MIA (3)
MN (3)

MIL Remaining Games
STL (2)
LAA (3)
@STL (3)
@SDP (3)
CIN (3)