Phillies Series Performance Tracker

[phillychuck]

Almost all of them use RS^2/(RS^2+RA^2)*Game Played and round it. I suspect they are rounding differently, or using 1.83 instead of 2 for the power (1.83 is considered slightly more accurate). Interestingly, the power varies from sport to sport.

RS = runs scored
RA = runs allowed

[zambonir]

Well, yeah, but if ESPN's is different from MLB's and BBRef's it's either a mistake or they do something different.

[phillychuck]

One of them may use 1.83 as the power rather than 2.

In football the power is close to 2.5, and in hockey it’s like 2.15. In the NBA the power is huge, like 14. Different run or point environments lead to different powers for expected winning percentage.

[VoteForKalas]

July 2025
1-1 SDP
2-1 CIN
1-2 SFG
1-2 SDP
1-2 LAA
2-1 BOS
2-1 NYY
1-2 CWS

August 2025
2-1 DET
2-1 BALT
3-0 TXR
1-2 CIN

Actual record: 69-51
Expected winning % record (8/14/25): 68-52
556 RS & 476 RA (+80)

Upcoming in August
@WSH (4)
SEA (3)
Day Off
WSH (3)
@NYM (3)
ATL (4)

We are no longer totally in sync with our expected W-L record, but only one game off.

[zambonir]

So we won one game 4-1 and lost two games by a combined score of 14-1 and WE still says we should have won another game in there?

[EastFallowfield]

Back to dead even with MLB's expected W/L. Still a game behind on ESPN.

[VoteForKalas]

July 2025
1-1 SDP
2-1 CIN
1-2 SFG
1-2 SDP
1-2 LAA
2-1 BOS
2-1 NYY
1-2 CWS

August 2025
2-1 DET
2-1 BALT
3-0 TXR
1-2 CIN
2-2 WSH
3-0 SEA

Actual record: 74-53
Expected winning % record (8/21/25): 74-53
604 RS & 505 RA (+99)

Upcoming in August
Day Off
WSH (3)
@NYM (3)
ATL (4)

[Philsmania]

Back to even luck again.

94 win pace at present.

[VoteForKalas]

July 2025
1-1 SDP
2-1 CIN
1-2 SFG
1-2 SDP
1-2 LAA
2-1 BOS
2-1 NYY
1-2 CWS

August 2025
2-1 DET
2-1 BALT
3-0 TXR
1-2 CIN
2-2 WSH
3-0 SEA
2-1 WSH

Actual record: 76-54
Expected winning % record (8/24/25): 76-54
617 RS & 516 RA (+101)

Upcoming in August
@NYM (3)
ATL (4)

[Philsmania]

95 win pace.

[zambonir]

I can't believe we still have a West Coast road trip in September. Including the Dodgers.

What's the tiebreaker if head-to-head doesn't do it? We went 3-3 against Padres, are 2-1 against LA for now.