The is the market value thing really a prediction or some formula based on WAR projections and post contracts for other free agents.
And yeah Thomson, especially said he was excited to have Alvarado back. They could theoretically tear up the option and do two years.
Was also reported that Robertson plans to take the same approach he did this year, but that Phillies would have interest.
JT didn't really wear down in the second half. July and August were his best months. He did have a poor September, and given his age/position you can't not be mindful of his workload. But it might have also been a bad month.
If he leaves, obviously the Phillies will have to trade for a catcher or wade into a less satisfying end of the FA market. But Marchan could play 60-80 games with the right partner.
I would think they non-tender Stubbs and then just offer him a lucrative minor league deal with a raise on the major league side. If he wants a legit chance to stick on a major league roster before he starts transitioning to coach, Phillies are probably not be the team. Hard to see his role changing if nothing else does, and even harder to see him winning a job on the Phillies if JT is gone.