Phillies 2025-2026 Hot Stove Discussion

[andyb]

Well, it seemed like it was worth it the first couple of years. 5-6 seeds went 3-1 in 2022 (with both NL teams making NLCS), and in 2023 one 5 and one 6 not only won their WC rounds but got all the way to the World Series.

Not really. What you had was one team going home after losing 2 games. It was just randomly the better team a lot the first couple of years. The story is really that the whole thing is a crapshoot to begin with. Trading assets for a berth in a short playoff is just not worth as much as baseball thought it would be.

Baseball needs to cut a week from the regular season and make the early playoff rounds longer.

[zambonir]

Well, I agree with that. In general I think deadline deals are more useful for the stretch run when you need to make the playoffs or lock down a high seed. They never actually guarantee you better luck in a short series (or even a long one unless you've gotten a top arm or bat).

Unfortunately we're probably more likely to have expansion and more teams. They want the crapshoot, and don't seem to care about the calendar either.

[andyb]

The decline in value of RSNs and local rights might actually allow them to take a week off the regular season and add it to the playoffs. I imagine the extra dates are much more valuable to the large market teams than extra playoff money would be to everyone if much of it is spread around equally.

[zambonir]

I'm still curious to see how Manfred and MLB are going buy the Phillies and Yankees and Dodgers out of 10 years of RSN deals (in addition to how those bigger-market owners are going to agree to revenue-share). Obviously the wealth gap in MLB is even less sustainable when the richest teams are also still doing fine with their RSNs while the smaller markets aren't. I believe all three of those teams also own parts of their RSNs, though only the Dodgers have a big enough piece to possibly control decision-making.

[RolenRules]

Phillies Sign Dylan Moore To Minor League Deal

I don't know if this signing qualifies as "hot stove", but I guess it's good to have some depth in case of injury.

[dcsman]

Well, “luke-warm” is probably more apt but it’s still nice to know the burner is still on.

[Austinfan]

Fefl off last season, but before that 3 straight seasons of RC+ > 100
At 33, may not have any bounce back.
Comes from the Schwarber school of hitting.

[andyb]

The Weston Wilson depth replacement (knowing Wilson was behind Kemp anyway). I wonder why they did not seek a left-handed bat for this AAAA role since that would let them ride out some big club injuries with platoons and our 2 reserve OFs are likely to be right-handed.

[zambonir]

He's technically got more OF experience than Kemp (or Wilson). As far as a LHB I reckon they see Miller as first call-up if there's an injured starter.

I still feel like they aren't locked into Kemp (or Rojas, though he's really just a glove). Lots of bench guys still kicking around. I reckon it's also why they haven't released Nick yet (the slim chance that a team might still trade not-much for him once they've missed out on every other RHB).

[andyb]

I think any Miller callup depends first on his own readiness. We'll see whomever loses the last bench spot (De La Cruz or Rojas) or even Cairo if Miller does not have enough AAA time to suggest he is ready. No reason to start the service time clock too early even if we expect him to come up by the end of the year.

Rincones could also come up as a left-handed (less flexible) bat but he really needs to be acceptable against LHP to even platoon the other way (he'll rarely get more than 2 plate appearances on his strong platoon hitting at the end of the lineup). He is just historically bad against LHP (323 OPS last year, 493 in 2024) that improvement is needed. Right now we'd be better off with Rojas knowing he does not have awful platoon splits and does have much better defense.

Athletic Q and A this morning on various things from Charlotte Varnes. No more major moves expected and she anticipates Miller will not play SS when he comes up. Not a whole lot of analytics in her answers so I think I prefer Gelb in these settings. She notes one game she saw Crawford take a bad route when discussing his defense where a quote from a scout (or actual minor league fielding analytics which are out there) would have been much better.

Phillies mailbag: Justin Crawford’s defense, ‘running it back,’ extending Jesús...

[fish]

He's technically got more OF experience than Kemp (or Wilson).

2024 utility gold glove winner, though a utility guy that hits .200 isn’t someone a contender should value beyond stashing at AAA.

[Austinfan]

But RC+ > 100 from 2022-24, he's a Schwarber 3 outcome clone.
Except Schwarber learned how to make contact, I don't think Moore has shown that ability.
But minor league contract, so he's probably insurance against injury, if he revives his bat a mid-season option.

[zambonir]

It's all depth and competition. As Andy notes LHB would still make sense to have in the mix as IF depth.. But otherwise, if they don't want to rush MIller or his service time, some Iron Pig is gonna get a call for some injury in the first half.

And he started around 20 games in RF last year, and overall put up 0.4 WAR to Kemp's -0.2 WAR last year, and hit 11 home runs. If he is less of a defensive liability in LF he deems like a legit option. But obviously Kemp is someone they are still trying to develop.

[andyb]

They definitely might want Moore over Kemp because of the defense and the time to let Kemp develop in AAA. 40-man decisions could also dictate early moves if spots have not cleared at certain times. Current Moore is a better fielder than current Kemp but probably a lesser hitter slightly.

The Phillies probably want the 5th OF to be able to play some infield too. Now it looks like they will take 1 of Kemp/Moore and 1 of De La Cruz/Rojas. Remember we don't pinch hit often unless the subs play so defense matters in these decisions. Sosa and Marchan are the rest of the bench and we assume Marsh and Crawford are starters with maybe only Marsh needing a platoon.

[zambonir]

Non-Phillies but also essentially a summary of remaining RH OF bats, should they still want one. Hays just signed for $6 milllion, Yankees were interested in him. They are also looking at Grichuck, or bringing back Austin Slater. Starling Marte and Tommy Pham among the others left.

As often as we imagined Pham here I would think Kemp or Moore could do what he does at this point (Pham had 1.0 WAR in 450 PAs so he's probably about the same at 200 PAs).

Yankees considering options for adding right-handed outfield bat: Sources

[andyb]

I think we are done with major league OF bats. Moore gives them choices but the reality is the RH platoon does not get many at bats and they really want Crawford to play full time since he does not have great platoon splits.

Any free agent worth more than $5 million a year probably wants more than short side platoon playing time and on a team with the DH role filled it just does not work that well.

[zambonir]

I think so too, and if they did want to spend $4-6 million now rather than in July, it's probably for pitching. But you just never know so long as so many FAs (or even trade options) are still kicking around, with their prices dropping. Presumably the Moore signing does close the door on a Grichuck.

Hey there's one former Phillies LF and proven RH power bat still out there

I'd personally still be interested in E. Suarez if the price/years (which is to say either cheap or one) are right. Do that and maybe Bohm gets you a 5th starter type?

[DurhamBull]

Hey there's one former Phillies LF and proven RH power bat still out there

Rhys Hoskins?

[allentown]

Rhys Hoskins?

At the right price, but realistically we only have a limited role for him. He can only play DH/1B or PH, which leaves him to PH, fill-in for Schwarber or Harper, or add a RH bat to lineup, IF Harper moves to OF on that day.

Phillies made out very well not re-signing him. Injured in his FA year then only 0,7 WAR across 2 seasons in MIL. His 108 OPS+ of last season would have helped us. If he can repeat that.... does as well against RHP as vs LHP.

[zambonir]

That was the joke, but entirely a joke. I don't think a team with a locked-in DH (and another LHB at the only OF position our DH could play) can accommodate him in any way, but the 2022 version of his bat is still something this line-up has never replaced, except for the handful of post-season games where Nick was slugging.