Phillies 2025-2026 Hot Stove Discussion

[phillychuck]

To be quite honest, neither Baader nor Garcia is likely to be a needle-mover. If we had known both would command roughly the same salaries I would have slightly preferred Bader, but the difference in actual ability will likely be swamped by the statistical noise.

[Sabin]

Bader is aging, and he wasn't even the CF in MInnesota last year. The Crawford part, we shall see. But I don't think a Crawford/Bader/Marsh OF was going to be the answer for this team (moving Marsh from his best position to accomodate Crawford) and I don't really think it was Bader's fielding that helped the Phillies, it was his hot bat (until it wasn't hot) and just getting Nick off the field. He also, ironically, didn't hit LHP last year, which in some ways is probably a plus but also not what the Phillies need.

So? A Crawford/Bader/Marsh outfield is a significant upgrade over Crawford/Marsh/Castellanos defensively. Bader doesn't have the power of Castellanos, but contributed 1.2 oWAR (PBR) last season to the 0.2 for Castellanos.

[zambonir]

No, but Bader wouldn't have been signed to play CF either if you're trying to play Crawford.And moving Marsh from his best position to one he's never played doesn't seem optimal either (much as last year's moves of March to CF and Kepler to LF weren't).

The hole in this team is still the same as it was last year, not OF defense, but a legit #4 or #5 RHB. That's not Bohm, that's not JT, and that's not Bader. It's probably not Garcia either, but he's the only one who might still have that in him, and he's just as good defensively (in RF) as Bader. The main thing is they've upgraded RF by 3.0 WAR even if Garcia doesn't hit. Bader would have too, but is just as likely as Garcia to be nothing special at the plate.

Clearly the only reason they were attracted to Bellinger was his age, despite him not filling a position of long-term need. But what they needed was Tucker or Bellinger, or maybe they should have gotten back in on Robert. The real issue is they were shopping on the $10 million shelf while the Yankees, Mets and Dodgers continues to be at another level (and in the Mets case, they got Bichette and still traded for Robert instead of bringing Bader back).

[andyb]

Bader doesn't have the power of Castellanos, but contributed 1.2 oWAR (PBR) last season to the 0.2 for Castellanos.

Bader was actually 2.6 oWAR last year but that is really an outlier because we was 2.3 oWAR across 3 seasons before that (total not average). I think the Philllies did see Bader as a better player than Garcia. He was just asking for 3/45 when they gave Garcia 1/10. That is why we got Garcia coupled likely with an internal evaluation that Crawford can play an acceptable CF and the only way he improves there is to play him there.

Betting on the 22 year old over the 32 year old is a novel thought for this team and there are likely projections that say the 22 year old will be better if the term is more than 1 year that is being measured (the chance of Bader's offensive inconsistency resurfacing is at least as great as Crawford failing offensively).

[zambonir]

As disappointing (and in Nick's case, top-to-bottom awful) as Kepler and Casty were last year they were 3rd (18) and 4th (17) on the team in home runs. Bader also had 17 between the two teams but as with everything else about his 2025, hadn't done anything like that from 2022-2024. Garcia hit 19 last year and 25 the year before and those were his bad years.

It does seem like the choice was never exactly Garcia vs. Bader. The choice was to keep Marsh in LF, give Crawford a shot in CF, and get a new RF who already excels at playing RF, rather than moving Marsh, Crawford or Bader there.

[flyers19rw]

Don't be surprised if Bryan de la Cruz shows up in the OF discussion. Good fielder and has shown a bat at times. Being bounced around between teams over the last couple of years hasn't helped his career.

[andyb]

Don't be surprised if Bryan de la Cruz shows up in the OF discussion. Good fielder and has shown a bat at times. Being bounced around between teams over the last couple of years hasn't helped his career.

He is probably in the mix with Rojas and Kemp for the 2 backup OF jobs.

[Jazzhead]

Realistically, I think you'll find that most owners of large breweries - like most large corporate ownership - lean Republican. I would think that only some of them are MAGA (as in, Trump cultists, nihilists, etc.). But if you're looking for a brew that's made by people who don't reflect the corporatist philosophy, you probably need to explore some of the craft brewers - the artisans, as opposed to the manufacturers. They're more likely spread across the philosophical spectrum - and they typically aren't publicly traded, answerable to Wall Street analysts who can't see past the next quarterly report. (Yeah, I don't think Yuengling is publicly traded, but still..)

I agree with you about favoring craft brewers, although I don't drink much beer anymore, preferring the good Kentucky tipple. Craft distillers, as I'm sure you're aware, are taking it on the chin in the current tariff wars, although the big boys are suffering too, as they have traditionally been far more dependent on the bland tastes of Canadians.

Sure, I favor smaller producers whose efforts are advancing the craft. On that score, I give Yuengling some credit. It's a legacy brewer that doesn't limit itself to adjunct lagers, and was brewing porters and ales when nobody else was. I love Lord Chesterfield ale - best suds for a hot day ever. I also have a soft spot for Dick Yuengling's dad, who entertained us wide-eyed law school students a time or two when we road-tripped to Pottsville to see the Oldest Brewery in America. Gosh, that was 45 years ago. I never met Dick, although I've heard that his daughters now run the show. As for his politics, he's entitled to his opinions like everyone else and all I will say is praise (and raise) the Lord!

[Philsmania]

Bearing in mind that this is really drifting off topic, I consider Yeungling to be a good "gateway beer" to get people to move from mass-produced domestic swill to craft beer. Yeungling is mass-produced but still crafty. As was the case with me, it was my first step toward the more enlightened craft beer world.

An issue that a lot of people have with Yeungling isn't so much Dick's rightwing politics as it is his aggressive union-busting activities. Yeungling has been barred from most Philadelphia Democratic Party events and either Gov. Shapiro or Gov. Wolf had 2SP's Delco Lager served at their inaugural party instead of Yeungling since Yeungling's union-busting has made it non-grata with Pennsylvania Democrats.

[Sabin]

Yeah, I split the difference with his oWAR totals between the two teams last season to offset some of the outlier effect. The argument for Crawford is a good one; they need to get some younger talent in there. I just thought Bader, while having a chance to touch some of the numbers he posted offensively last year, would've made for a better defensive play.

Looking at Garcia's dWAR, I see there's less space between him and Bader than I thought.

[andyb]

Looking at Garcia's dWAR, I see there's less space between him and Bader than I thought.

Not as big a gulf though there could be some SSS at play with Garcia. He is decent but not as good as those stats say given his track record. And Bader was doing it mostly in CF which is harder.

That being said, I would bet on Garcia being the better offensive player and our priority really is to get Crawford a long runway in CF. Hey, there is a bonus draft pick to be earned if he is actually good. He might be as ready for the majors as any ROY prospect in the NL given that they did not call him up last season.

[Austinfan]

Rojas put up 1.5 WAR in 534 PA over the past two seasons, despite awful hitting.
Any improvement at the plate and he's clearly a better bet than Bader and a lot cheaper.

[Austinfan]

That bat is probably Miller in 2027 or a platoon with Rincones.

[julio]

Well, I confess a bit of burgeoning interest in Bourbon myself, as a result of a couple of really good Old Fashioneds (or in one case something based on that cocktail, but with a blueberry syrup instead of sugar) in memorable restaurants. And yeah, it’s a tough time for the distilleries.

[Docs]

Bader is quoted as saying he doesn’t know why he isn’t back with the Phillies, which seems to me that there was room from his side for negotiation if the player wanted to come back, did the Phillies front office reject Bader before he rejected them? Are they getting dating advice from a high schooler? Were they offended or read too much into the opt out? Was the second year a deal breaker? Did they make assumptions without confirming? Can’t wait for the book to come out.

[jimbomill]

I agree with you about favoring craft brewers, although I don't drink much beer anymore, preferring the good Kentucky tipple.

Same here! Although I've had a fondness for single malt scotch since around 1980!

[zambonir]

They just weren't that into him

Definitely not about the option, mutual options are almost never exercised. That one was just to help the Twins structure the guaranteed money in the contract, and protect them if he got hurt. He was able to get every penny of the buyout by staying healthy and playing. Had he exercised the option he would have made $10 million from the Phillies this year but not gotten the $3 million buyout. This way he has the $10 million, the $3 million and if he gets hurt again this year still gets paid next year.

He might say he doesn't know why but he was almost certainly asking for three years and higher AAV originally. The deal he signed now is after the Phillies signed Garcia and the Mets, Yankees and Dodgers all made different moves. There was nobody to drive up the price and nobody to sign with but a .500 team. Which, to Joe Sheehan, is no coincidence:

Signing Harrison Bader to be the fourth outfielder on a team with a lefty-heavy outfield and at least one spot occupied by a poor glove man, that’s sharp. Signing Harrison Bader to be your everyday center fielder because at 32 he’ll be the best center fielder on the team...that’s a very 81-81 move. The Giants have been within a couple games of .500 for four straight seasons, exactly .500 twice, and that’s likely their ceiling again.

Newsletter Excerpt, January 27, 2026 -- "Harrison Bader and the Giants"

[Philsmania]

As hard as it may be to believe, the Giants and the Cardinals were both technically in contention until the final week of the season. The two teams played a midweek series in San Francisco the last week of the season. One night the Giants eliminated the Cardinals and the next night the Cardinals eliminated the Giants. The Marlins, Diamondbacks, Royals, Rays and Rangers all also technically hung around and weren't eliminated until the midweek series they played as well. Arguably, of course, none of those teams were really in it at that point.

The Cardinals gave up the ghost of "one more move to get us to the Postseason" and began a teardown and rebuild this offseason. The Giants are still hoping for one guy to put them over the top.

[andyb]

A bigger problem for baseball and teams like the Giants and the Cardinals is that it just was not worth it to compete for a wild card spot and a 3-game series where they might just be on the road. Hard to trade the future at the deadline for a chance at that.

[zambonir]

Well, it seemed like it was worth it the first couple of years. 5-6 seeds went 3-1 in 2022 (with both NL teams making NLCS), and in 2023 one 5 and one 6 not only won their WC rounds but got all the way to the World Series. Those teams (Phillies, Padres, Rangers, DBacks were mostly all-in financially and at the deadlines (the Dbacks if I recall actually traded their closer but acquired a new one) though, the lower-budget teams aren't gonna go for it the same way. Mets also made the run to NLCS in 2024 of course.

Last year it does seem like the 6 seed wouldn't have been worth a damn (Giants or Cards wouldn't have done any better than Reds). Detroit won in the AL as a 6th but there was little difference between them and the 3 seed, which they had held most of the season.