Phillies 2025-2026 Hot Stove Discussion

[fish]

Do we get draft picks from Boston?

They lose their 2nd, we get a pick after the 4th round. So long, Ranger- it was a pleasure .

[andyb]

Ranger got a year less than the projections but close to the same AAV. That seems logical as durability is the main concern. He got to go to a big market though so he should do OK. Good for Ranger.

[zambonir]

If he’d sign at a reasonable rate, it’s worth doing but it doesn’t look like that’s in the cards.

We have no idea what either side is offering/asking for or what is actually reasonable. Just part of the process. JT is not what he used to be but he's still better than anyone else the Phillies might get. I don't believe the Phillies will pencil Marchan in for more than 60 starts, 80 at most (he only got 30 last year) and we also don't know if his bat will ever really play (it's more believable that his hitting in 2024 was a fluke, because it's not flukey that a .656 OPS guy in AAA would be below .600 in the bigs.

In the end it's a question of paying JT vs. giving up something in trade versus settling for less WAR at catcher. The question is how much less.

[EastFallowfield]

Ranger Suarez to Red Sox - 5 years 130 Million

Sad to see him move over to News Of Phormer Phils thread...

[allentown]

The 102 OPS+ last year (and 104 career OPS+) tells a more complete story (and that's without defense).

You write this as if his defense stinks. It used to, but the past 2 aeasons his dWAR has been +0.1 and 0.0, which is to say neutral. Kemp would not be neutral, as one possibility mentioned in this thread. Bohm's WAR last season, in a year in which he did less well than in 2024 was +1.5.

Stott was positive dWAR at 2B and 2.2 overall rWAR last season.

Kemp had negative 0.5 rWAR last season and with an OPS+ of only 92, wasn't as good a hitter as either Bohm or Stott. Whether or not the Phillies acquire Bichette, it makes no sense to have Kemp as either our H2b or starting 3B, even if Bohm or Stott were traded. As was the case this year, he will be a bench guy/short side of platoon.

[zambonir]

Will definitely miss him, but never expected anything else. A bit ironic that Sox pivoted to pitching after losing Bregman (which suggests they won't take a run at Bichette either).

I wonder if the Phillies' relationship with Boras, which seemed so strong back in the Arrieta/Harper window, isn't what it was, especially with him lobbying for a Harper extension and now this year DD firing a few shots at Bryce. They have managed to avoid Boras clients with all their major signings and trades since then, even if most moves were just re-signings (besides Turner). Meanwhile the Phillies know Boras doesn't like to do extensions for pending first-time FAs so while there are other reasons, Suarez, Bohm and Stott haven't been in the mix for one even as Sanchez got his and Luzardo just might.

[zambonir]

But Kemp is a late-blooming 26 year-old with fewer than 200 ABs. He had just a .653 OPS the first half, but .756 in the second, and .856 in September. Still better against LHP, certainly, but that has largely been true of Bohm over his career too. You are hoping Kemp is a player on the ascent, while Bohm is not. Including the possibility that if a defender as bad as Bohm can work his way up to neutral so could Kemp. Bohm was -12 DRS in 2023 (which included 1B) while Kemp was -8 in 2025 (which included all his positions). Bohm was -3 DRS this year. Sosa +2 but he didn't play much 3B.

Obviously Bohm is still better now but if you have a better way to use his money and could get something for him to boot, going with a fungible 3B platoon for one year (possibly less if Miller is ready) is not a bad strategy. Seems like it's moot at this point anyway.

[julio]

Kemp is a late-blooming 26 year-old with fewer than 200 ABs. He had just a .653 OPS the first half, but .756 in the second, and .856 in September.

In September, Kemp had an OPS of .856... with an OBP of .298. Do you think a .558 SLG is sustainable? That .558 SLG was in 57 plate appearances; he hit 4 HR and 4 2B. In July, in 59 plate appearances, he hit 3 HR and 2 doubles; his SLG was .426, or .130 lower than September.

In August, in limited use, he was horrible.

That's what really small sample sizes do; one potential home run doesn't clear the fence, and is caught, two hits to the OF are cut off by outfielders instead of hitting a gap, and your SLG is 25% lower.

Also... Not to rain on anybody's parade, but prudence suggests that DD not think of Kemp (or anybody else) in terms of "until Miller is ready." Miller put up solid, but not overwhelming numbers at AA in 2025 - and what he did in 37 plate appearances in AAA is... well, meaningless. Yes, he could open strong in AAA this spring (in the cold of Allentown...), or he could not, as AAA pitchers develop a book on him. We just don't know yet... and assuming a defensive black hole like Kemp is "good enough until Miller is ready" is the kind of strategy I'd expect from the Pirates... not the Phillies.

[zambonir]

Fair enough re: Kemp, but Bohm has never been a great OBP player either (just a good contact hitter), unlocking the power Kemp showed in AAA is what his upside is all about.

Listen, I'm not even sure Kemp should play platoon LF let alone 3B, but if trading Bohm had let them sign Tucker or keep Ranger it would have been a reasonable balancing act. Now it seems like the only path is Bichette or keep Bohm.

Re: Miller, like I said, "possibly." I would definitely bring in a cheap veteran LHB to play 3B with Kemp. Our cheap bats all happen be RH, including our utility guy. If Miller is ready, you move on. If he isn't, well, they're gonna need a 3B in 2027. I reckon the interest in Bichette suggests they aren't counting on MIller overly quickly at all.

[julio]

To be honest, I'm not sure I really understand the Phillies' interest in Bo Bichette. He's good offensively, but as the discussion indicates, it's not obvious how he fits. He's going to be barely adequate defensively, at best, anywhere. We're discussing who we have to trade to make room for him!

We need a starting catcher. I don't think Bichette fits there! If there's a trade that addresses that need, and creates a hole Bichette can fill, well OK. But that's not obvious.

I'm not particularly attached to Realmuto at this point. I know the pitchers love him - but pitchers typically love their primary receiver; it's a comfort thing. JT is on the downside, and he's not going to get better - he's going to get worse. Re-signing him is kicking that particular can down the road.

[andyb]

He's going to be barely adequate defensively, at best, anywhere.

Most of the scouting reports I have seen on Bichette's defense is that he would probably be above average at 2B or 3B. Obviously there could be age decline, but he is kind of like Stott defensively in that he is an average to below average SS but better at positions with fewer demands.

[flyers19rw]

Ranger had a great run here. If his past performance was sustainable he’d be greatly missed. However its questionable if that will be the case. Over the last two seasons, he broke down with back issues which cost him starts. He needs to do a better job of taking care of his body going forward. Guys with back issues should keep the weight off which from just looking at Ranger, is not a priority for him.
Last year his velocity was noticeably down. It's probably not as much of an issue with him since he is more of a finesse pitcher than a power thrower. It does mean that his margin of error with what he throws is not as great as it once was and pitching in Fenway Park has not been kind to left handers.

[julio]

Obviously there could be age decline, but he is kind of like Stott defensively in that he is an average to below average SS but better at positions with fewer demands.

Second base I could see; third base has different demands than shortstop. Per B-R, he's never played there, at least as a professional.

[phillychuck]

Most of the scouting reports I have seen on Bichette's defense is that he would probably be above average at 2B or 3B. Obviously there could be age decline, but he is kind of like Stott defensively in that he is an average to below average SS but better at positions with fewer demands.

People are projecting his defense at 3B and 2B, he has very little time there, even before coming to MLB. I’m not comfortable saying he’d be above average myself.

[andyb]

His issue is declining range. That is less of an issue at 2B or 3B. His arm is only average so maybe 2B is the better fit but in that case Stott could just play 3B. I really do not have concerns about his defense in the middle term (next 3-4 years). After that of course this team might have issues in lots of places. Bichette has generally been a small positive at SS through his career though so it is not like there is not a base of decent tools to work with. Bohm just never has had the athleticism to be very good at 3B though he has learned to be better through improved mechanics.

[allentown]

Fair enough re: Kemp, but Bohm has never been a great OBP player either (just a good contact hitter), unlocking the power Kemp showed in AAA is what his upside is all about.

Listen, I'm not even sure Kemp should play platoon LF let alone 3B, but if trading Bohm had let them sign Tucker or keep Ranger it would have been a reasonable balancing act. Now it seems like the only path is Bichette or keep Bohm.

l don't think trading Bohm would have allowed Phillies to sign Tucker. That's way big multi-year, same with Ranger.

If Kemp is for real, then he'll get playing time in Philly. I think mainly LF. He was bad at 3B in 2025.

I still don't see a long-term commitment to Bichette working long term for the Phillies. They need a catcher and my next preferred need to fill is another SP. Ranger is an injury risk and has never pitched as many as 160 innings in a season, but the past 5 years he also has never had less than 2.3 WAR and had 4,7 WAR last year. I was hoping he'd accept the QO.

[zambonir]

It would have been Tucker instead of Bohm + Garcia. Not quite all the money, but close (well, not close if the Mets are really paying him $50M). For one year. Casty and Walker free up money after this year which is also now the case with Bichette.

I'm intrigued but skeptical about Bichette. For now, it's about adding a younger better player to the team for two years. If he gets hurt again, or if there's a lockout, and/or if Wheeler turns into Walker or Eflin, it will be a failed gamble. But from 2028 to 2032 having him is no better or worse than if they re-signed Stott (which they surely won't) or another 30 or 31 year-old UFA.

Locking up Sanchez and trading for Luzardo always felt like signals that the Phillies weren't willing to re-sign Ranger unless he and Boras took a team-friendly deal (and there were also times when his injuries meant an extension wasn't something the team wanted either). Obviously Boras was correct to not do that, let alone accept a QO. Now it's just critical for the Phillies to extend Luzardo, and if nobody else (including Painter) emerges by 2028 they'll have the Wheeler money to spend then.

[dcsman]

To be honest, I'm not sure I really understand the Phillies' interest in Bo Bichette. He's good offensively, but as the discussion indicates, it's not obvious how he fits

Agree to disagree. He’s a quality baseball player on a team that clearly needs a little change and a RH bat. You find a spot for him if you can get him. In this case, it seems like Bohm is pretty much a foregone conclusion to be traded this offseason. Let Bichette/Stott play 2B/3B and if Miller is the real deal you potentially let Stott walk as he’s clearly not going to sign a team-friendly extension before free agency.

My real concern about signing Bichette rests in the fact that we lose a lot of leverage in trade negotiations re: Bohm as teams will know the Phils need to unload him.

[dcsman]

I’ll miss Ranger but had very little expectation or hope that they would re-sign him.

At this point, I’m pretty fine with J.T. leaving unless it’s a good short deal for the Phils.

[BostonRoss]

I don’t understand why the Phillies would trade Stott and keep Bohm. Stott is younger and has one more year of control. But more importantly, he’s better than Bohm. His WAR was higher, even his oWAR! Stott would bring a better return in prospects, but not any premium players, and no one who would improve the 2026 team.

Why do you not think Stott could return premium players? The whole reason for trading Stott over Bohm would really be the return since Stott is a bit better and you are talking 2 years of control. I think that gets you a top 100 prospect while Bohm does not get you that. And with Miller coming we might not need either if we sign Bichette.

I had already said that Stott would bring a better return than Bohm. I guess I consider "premium" better than top 100. Many (most?) prospects in the lower part of the top 100 miss. Occasionally one of them becomes a star, but the few who do make it are usually more like Stott himself than a superstar.

I'm focused on 2026 because the Phillies team age portends a decline over the next few years. Trading Stott and keeping Bohm makes this year's team worse than doing the opposite. It's unlikely a top 100 prospect would make up the difference this season between keeping Bohm over Stott.