Phillies 2025-2026 Hot Stove Discussion

[zambonir]

But why have they continued to behave as if the last line does make a difference? I mean we're basically getting the same narrative as when they signed Nick now, that for a player like Bo Bichette, the owners are willing to increase the budget, but if the will to spend is there they could have just as easily been in on Tucker or Bellinger, or overpaid a bit for Bader, instead of gambling on a $10 million bounce-back OF for the second year in a row.

And we could also still have Strahm.

[andyb]

I think they just want the best right handed bat on the market and will figure things out if they can sign him. They probably don't want to carry regulars on the bench (i.e. Bohm or Stott), so a trade is logical. Not for money, but to improve the club with either prospects or pitching or even another OF bat or catcher.

It really does not seem they are thinking of converting any infielder to the OF, so a trade of Bohm is really the most logical thing.

[Matt_Winkelman]

My understanding of the situation is that their budget for this year was a tiny bit above last year's payroll due to just cash availability. Last year they were at $310M and right now they are at $302M. Based on conversation about 2-3 weeks ago they probably had about $20M left to spend probably budgeted as $15M for JT and $5M for rotation depth/low level RH OF. They weren't really thinking about Bichette because whatever their read on the situation was that they were going to be able to spend the money he was going to get, especially since they probably thought that they would have a JT deal by now. Now Bichette is interested in him and doesn't seem to have a long term deal with a lower AAV on the table (it seems Dodgers are at short with high AAV and Red Sox are at like 5 year with deferrals). So now they are in a JT stalemate and maybe Bichette at let's call it $27.5M for like 7 years is on the table. They know they also need to budget in probably $5M for a JT alternative at catcher. If they just do that outright that is $32.5M more in tax and $12.5M more payroll than they had budgeted (or $26.25M in cash). It is hard to add that much cash at the last minute to the budget so you look at the roster and say Alec Bohm is now sort of out of a job, if we clear that $10M now I am overbudget by $2.5M or $5.25M in cash. You can't find that under the couch cushion, but in theory you can make it happen.

Sure you could have gone in different ways earlier, but they also wanted a RH bat and w/e Bader was asking at the time was too many years more than too many dollars. Tucker and Bellinger seem to be in a place where they are getting more AAV which makes this not really work, it is really that there might be a lower AAV longer term deal that exists for Bichette that he might want.

[andyb]

We'll probably get a tiny bit of cash back for Castellanos. His market is just so narrow and limited that he probably needs to wait until most of the OF/DH pieces sign before him.

This was just going to be an expensive year for the Phillies. Need to wait out the Wheeler contract to really cut payroll anyway and who knows what kind of financial system we are looking at then. I think they just want Bichette and it looks like the dominoes are falling in a way where he'll be a bit less expensive than anticipated.

Note the minor deal with Pittsburgh earlier today. That is perhaps the best fit for a Bohm trade if it came to that. Detroit also is another option. It appears St. Louis is in a pure rebuild mode so the Arenado trade does not make them likely to need a 3B.

[flyers19rw]

Getting in the middle of all of these long term deals is a work stoppage in ‘27. That’s one full year of lost play. With a Bregman or Bellinger type player, it’s a lost season near the end of their prime years. Very costly. Then what will their performance be after a season off. Younger players have more time to get their careers back on track

[zambonir]

I dunno if it's gonna come to that. It felt that way last time too and they didn't miss a game. It's a lot more heated now but that still might just mean a few months. And getting a contract now might end up being better than getting one under the new CBA, depending what the new system is (and how older deals are grandfathered in).

At least Bichette will have several good years ahead of him after 2027. If that is an entirely lost season the Phillies will not reap the benefits of the last year of Wheeler and Duran and Stott, perhaps JT as well, in addition to the age curve on Nola and current big three hitters,

But on the bright side those older players may benefit from the time off!

[Austinfan]

Bohm makes no sense on the bench, Sosa is much better in that role, can backup SS and 2B as well as 3B..
And Kemp can play OF.

[zambonir]

If they get Bichette Kemp can certainly play LF. But when they were talking about getting Grichuck that suggested either Kemp was heading to the minors or they were ready to trade Bohm and give Kemp at shot at 3B until Miller could join him.

Regardless, no chance Bohm stays as a $10.2 million underused back-up. He only stays if they trade Stott. Bichette has never played 3B, but obviously SS to 3B is just as common as SS to 2B (and in some ways easier, same side of IF, no DP responsibilities).

[David_Criss]

Bohm had the 11th highest batting average last year in all of MLB, so I hope he stays. But I get it he is a year away from free agency and probably not a qualifying offer candidate so get something now.

If they sign Bichette they are going to go over the 4th luxury tax regardless. And if they sign him he will play 2B. That leaves Stott as the odd man out, not Bohm right???

If they need to clear payroll to sign him then:

Stott to San Francisco
Casty and $14 million (thank you Arenado) to Cleveland or Cincinnati
Bohm to Seattle and Kemp plays 3B?????
Prospects to White Sox or Twins for one of the young catchers or Jeffers or sign Heim or Caratinti. I am AOK for Marchan catching 1/2 the games.

If only it were that easy.

[zambonir]

Plan A is to play Bichette at 3B. They could also move Stott to 3B. If they trade Stott it's to get a better return knowing they have Miller in 2027 anyway, not to jerry-rig Bichette in or clear payroll.

Bohm's ability to hit for average and RISP are his two best qualities. Without there being any other good ones. The 102 OPS+ last year (and 104 career OPS+) tells a more complete story (and that's without defense).

[flyers19rw]

I'm not counting on Bichette being a Phillies until I see his name on the bottom line if a contract.

[zambonir]

For sure. But the smoke seems pretty fiery. The Cubs signed Bregman (and now have a surplus of IFs), the Yankees Mets and Blue Jays are more focused on OF, and the Red Sox probably can't win a bidding war for him if they couldn't even keep Bregman. Plus this whole thing seemed to pick up steam once the front office was able to pick Don Mattingly's brain about him. Certainly the Dodgers could swoop in.

It's fun to be in on him and see the aggression, but it also won't bother me if they whiff, for all the reasons I didn't like the idea when it seemed like a flight of fancy.

But they gotta wrap up JT otherwise.

[BostonRoss]

I don’t understand why the Phillies would trade Stott and keep Bohm. Stott is younger and has one more year of control. But more importantly, he’s better than Bohm. His WAR was higher, even his oWAR! Stott would bring a better return in prospects, but not any premium players, and no one who would improve the 2026 team.

[zambonir]

Occam's Razor says you trade Bohm and keep Stott, including the fact that Bichette is a straight replacement for Bohm at the plate (as a RHB). But then, he's not a straight plug-in for Bohm in the field (i.e he would be better at 2B).

But if you aren't getting JT and you're trading for a younger, longer-term catcher instead of settling for the second-best FA (or worse), trading Stott would help you improve the 2026 team that way (whether he's directly in the deal or replenishing prospect capital lost in the deal).

Add in that it's not clear if Phillies would want to extend Stott nor that he would accept an extension (as a Boras client) and you can't rule it out.

[andyb]

The 102 OPS+ last year (and 104 career OPS+) tells a more complete story (and that's without defense).

I will note that OPS underrates players like Bohm a bit whose OPS is built off a high average without a big walk rate. Hits are more valuable than walks and OPS ignores that. Bohm's bigger issue to me was his power drop last season. HR drop was minimal (15 to 11) but the doubles kind of disappeared (44 down to 18). He had some injuries to deal with, but a slow runner without power is just less valuable than they need to be. He is a good contact hitter, but he is no Wade Boggs either.

[andyb]

I don’t understand why the Phillies would trade Stott and keep Bohm. Stott is younger and has one more year of control. But more importantly, he’s better than Bohm. His WAR was higher, even his oWAR! Stott would bring a better return in prospects, but not any premium players, and no one who would improve the 2026 team.

Why do you not think Stott could return premium players? The whole reason for trading Stott over Bohm would really be the return since Stott is a bit better and you are talking 2 years of control. I think that gets you a top 100 prospect while Bohm does not get you that. And with Miller coming we might not need either if we sign Bichette.

[zambonir]

Well sure hits are more valuable than walks but if Bohm walked more I think he'd be a more consistent offensive producer. Though, like you say, the issue is really more power. He had career-high BABIP last year, and pretty much the same BA, but reduced power. And his stratospheric April of 2024 was very BABIP-drive, but presumably with more hard-hit balls too.

You'd think he could adjust/trade some things to improve others but it seems he is what he is, and age is catching up too.

[owaistabish]

Ranger Suarez to Red Sox - 5 years 130 Million

Do we get draft picks from Boston?

[flyers19rw]

I’m not overly concerned about replacing JT. With pitch calls coming from the bench, his game calling significance diminishes. Marchan has as good of an arm and his play behind the plate is good and improving. His bat is better than he showed last season as well. Physically, JT is showing his age. Knee surgeries for catchers is a red flag. His bat slowed down last year and his power numbers slumped as well. There was a time when he was special but that’s not now. If he’d sign at a reasonable rate, it’s worth doing but it doesn’t look like that’s in the cards.

[Squire]

I think we get a pick but I don't think it comes from the Red Sox. It's been so long since we got a pick that I am out of practice on this.