Phillies 2025-2026 Hot Stove Discussion

[bkox]

interesting video here from Trevor May and how 3 city round trips affect teams. Phillies only had one this past season and it was mostly east coast teams.

Philies have three 3 city road trips in 2026.

Based on what he says in the video.. things dont look good for our Phillies in 2026 with a 3 city west coast trip in late August/early Sept and then another 3 city trip (thankfully all east coast) just 8 days later.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q7bzXji0Hxo

[julio]

I would have found it more interesting if he'd compared teams' winning percentage during three-city road trips, on the one hand, to the same teams' winning percentage either: 1) on the road overall; or 2) on shorter road trips. Comparing teams' performance during three-city road trips to their overall records ignores the overall home-team advantage (which is pretty well documented?), which would confound his assumptions about three-city road trips in particular.

[andyb]

Yeah, he is not really an analyst. I am guessing the 3-city trip winning percentage is a bit worse than the 2-city. But some of the difference might be coast to coast travel which would hit you at some point anyway and might be as bad on a 2-city trip. Then there is also the bonus of probably getting a longer homestand with an off day at some point which might lead to a higher home winning percent during that period.

In general these things should be equalized just like back to backs in the NBA and NHL. Guessing the players are probably fine with it because shorter road trips mean packing to go on the road more often. Trevor needs to find a day job....

[julio]

Trevor needs to find a day job....

Depending on how many followers he has, or can get, and on what he may have invested, this may be all the day job he'll ever need...

[zambonir]

I know I would personally rather spend 10 days on the West Coast than six. I guess it depends how that single visit out West pairs with another series, versus doing two and two.

Eastern time, it just doesn't seem like a big deal, though we've obviously seen them run into some plane troubles on what should have been easy trips.

[andyb]

Mercado back on a minor league deal instead of a 40-man spot.

11/24/25 : Phillies re-sign Michael Mercado to minor league contract

[zambonir]

Can never have too much pitching, let's get him.

Tatsuya Imai says he’d rather pave his own way than follow Japanese stars to...

> “Of course, I’d enjoy playing alongside Ohtani, Yamamoto and Sasaki,” Imai told the former Boston Red Sox and New York Mets starter [Matsuzaka]. “But winning against a team like that and becoming a World Champion would be the most valuable thing in my life. If anything, I’d rather take them down.”

> “If there were another Japanese player on the same team, I could just ask them about anything, right?” Imai said. “But that’s actually not what I’m looking for. In a way, I want to experience that sense of survival. When I come face-to-face with cultural differences, I want to see how I can overcome them on my own — that’s part of what I’m excited about.”

[phillychuck]

Wow. Nice interview. Love his attitude; hope he can pitch if we sign him...

[zambonir]

Reckon that he's still a major long shot (aside from still likely losing out to another team). Could also just bring back Ranger for less money if you want go that way, or sign Valdez who MLBTR has at the same price. Imai has greater value in that he's younger and would be a hugely important symbolic stop. He might not be a better pitcher though.

[zambonir]

Sanchez made a nice chunk of change for his Cy Young finish. Do the Phillies also have to pay CBT tax on it?

2025 MLB Pre-Arbitration Bonus Pool List

The allocation of the 2025 Major League Baseball pre-arbitration bonus pool, as determined by the collective bargaining agreement. An eligible player gets $2.5 million for winning a MVP or Cy Young Award, $1.75 million for second in the voting, $1.5 million for third, $1 million for fourth, fifth or all-MLB first team, $750,000 for Rookie of the Year, $500,000 for second in Rookie of the Year voting or all-MLB second team. A player is eligible to receive a bonus for only one award per year, for the highest amount eligible for. The remaining money is allocated by a WAR formula:

Player Total Bonus
Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh $3,436,343
Cristopher Sánchez, Philadelphia 2,678,437

Full list at the link, no other Phillies because of course we had no other major pre-arbitration players.

[zambonir]

I don't really understand this one at all. He's 32 and signed through 2030. You probably have to give up Miller, if not Painter. And you're either trading Stott - I suppose you just put him in the deal? - or moving him or Marte to 3B?

Ketel Marte could be the perfect trade target if Phillies are willing to pay...

[allentown]

"if the Phillies are willing to pay a massive price". Nope. This is clickbait. Why would we pay a massive price for a guy going into his age 33 season and earning big $. And at a position we have well covered. This would be a most excellent way to destroy the team's intermediate future. $22 million and we would be responsible for paying him through his age 38 season. He's a 4+ WAR player now, but how long can that last and better ways to spend that kind of $.

[jimbomill]

I don't really understand this one at all. He's 32 and signed through 2030.

If we learn nothing from the 76ers, we should learn this - that you do not sign nor extend (expensive) players past their primes or with a strong injury history.

[zambonir]

Agreed, but the report is that the Phillies inquired about him and they are one of the five teams he can't refuse a trade to. Why? Probably just due diligence/seeing what it would take.

Could he go back to CF? He's certainly the kind of bat they are missing (and hits LHP best). But you'd basically be adding a Castellanos back to the team, and for talent as well as money (though you'll spend a lot more than $19M AAV for anything that good in free agency).

This off-season is certainly a big test of what Dombrowski's overall vision is. He's got two more years of Wheeler, and will probably sign JT for two or three. His own contract is also up in 2027. Still really no plan for what to do after that especially if Harper and Turner (and Schwarber?) aren't at MVP levels.

[David_Criss]

With Helsley signing a 2/14 per and Williams signing a 3/18 per deal.....Alvarado could be a huge bargain at 9 mil......so I consider that a Hot Stove win.

Meanwhile everything is on hold for the Phillies until we know about Schwarber and Realmuto, so they can run it back again.....this time of the year is so exciting and maddening at the same time.

[andyb]

A 1-year deal for a reliever like Alvarado was always going to be good if there were no clubhouse issues. The Williams deal is not really the 3/51 as advertised with deferred money but still will likely be graded at around $15 million per year.

Looks like we will see more deferred money and signing bonuses (which get paid during a work stoppage even if they are paid yearly) this offseason.

[Philsmania]

This off-season is certainly a big test of what Dombrowski's overall vision is. He's got two more years of Wheeler, and will probably sign JT for two or three. His own contract is also up in 2027. Still really no plan for what to do after that especially if Harper and Turner (and Schwarber?) aren't at MVP levels.

At that point, we will be where we were in 2012.

[zambonir]

I think they could have won in 2013 and 2014 if they'd been willing to spend money. They salary-dumped Pence (and for a poor return to boot). And then added insult to injury by not really trying to rebuild in 2014.

There are limits of course but this front office is not going to bring in Aaron Harang or Delmon Young types if they have to replace production from, say, Nola and Schwarber. They also have more good players on the way, if still not enough.

Now, we may actually wish they hit rock bottom, because the other alternative is to just be the Yankees or Blue Jays, being good but not good enough most years for a long time. Just as the Phillies already are.

[BostonRoss]

The parallels to 2012 are concerning, but it's not a perfect comparison. Both the 2012 and 2025 teams were old, but the 2012 team was older. Only two players of note on that team were under 30, Hamels and Pence (who was traded during the season). The 2025 team had Bohm, Stott, Marsh, Sanchez, Luzardo, and Duran all in the age 27-28 range. Plus, the current Phillies have a little more on the farm (Painter, Crawford, Miller). The 2012 team had basically Domonic Brown.

Generally, though, the free agent market isn't going to make them much younger. The window isn't open for much longer, and more long term contracts will make it harder to compete in a couple of years.

[Jazzhead]

I agree, which is why I won't weep if another club gives our aging DH a four or five year deal. I think the Dodgers showed another way to go - keep bolstering the starting rotation. I want to see Painter get his shot, but I want to resign Ranger too. Success in the playoffs requires the steady foundation of good starters. Hitters can only be counted on to run hot and cold.