Phillies 2025-2026 Hot Stove Discussion

[andyb]

Somewhat interesting waiver claim here to use one of the open 40-man spots:

11/21/25 : Phillies claim outfielder Pedro Leon off waivers from Orioles

Not sure he'll stay on the roster all winter. Was a $4 million Cuban signing a few years ago that made the majors briefly in 2024 before an injury filled 2025. Moderate power and speed in a utility guy.

[fish]

Non-fantasy: you give up one Top 10 and one Top 20 prospect for Ford and get slightly less than that back in separate trades for Bohm and Marchan. (Okay, maybe that's still fantasy.)

Yeah, still fantasy, but all in hot stove speculation fun. You'll find Ford ranked somewhere between Crawford and Miller on prospect lists, and Crawford doesn't have the thump to be able to headline that deal.

[fish]

I think I really want them to explore a buy-low on Rutschman.

While I certainly wouldn't turn a blind eye on a Rutschman, I heard someone comp him to Matt Wieters the other day, and its hard not to see it once you do.

[andyb]

Rutschman is much better. And younger with a low BABIP and some injuries to explain some off the decline. Buy low is also key here and Baltimore could be motivated to move him since they have another good young catcher in Basallo. With a normal BABIP Rutschman would be coming off something like a 730 OPS year with injuries.

[Austinfan]

Leon is a nice pickiup. Highly rated prospect, got rushed to AAA then stagnated, but has shown power and speed, though small, 5'9 170 listed. His selectivity went down from 2022-2024 as his contact went up but his K rate remained the same. 2024 had elevated BABIP so should be discounted a bit.

If you could teach him to use his height to his advantage and be more disciplined, could be a dangerous hitter, small K zone with power makes pitchers uncomfortable.

[zambonir]

Stubbs agrees to another split deal, tho he's out of options of course

[zambonir]

Marchan also took a deal, and...

The Phillies did not tender contracts to pitchers Michael Mercado and Daniel Robert, who became free agents.

Phillies tender contracts to seven players ahead of Friday deadline

[zambonir]

Trea is at the NC State-FSU game tonight as are Carlos Rodon and Dan Plesac

[dcsman]

I still want Crawford to make the opening day roster but maybe not as their starting CF. I like Reynolds if it is indeed mostly a salary dump for the Pirates. Who would you be interested in?

https://philliesnation.com/2025/11/philadelphia-phillies-outfield-free-agency-mlb-offseason-rob-refsnyder-michael-conforto-bryan-reynolds-adolis-garcia-randy-arozarena/

[zambonir]

If they sign Bader, then just Refsnyder or Garcia on that list as the other RH complement to both Marsh and Crawford. If not, I think you have to play Crawford in CF and almost every day, and find a new everyday RF. Or you still do if Crawford is in LF and Marsh is in CF.

Being stuck with Reynolds at $15 million a year from 2028 to 20230 seems like a very bad idea. It's not like the Pirates are going to throw in money or take back Castellanos (but you can try). May as well just sign Bader for three years (when you might prefer two) and $15 AAV (when you might prefer 12). Given how weak the market is you probably should just sign him anyway. The only path to a true upgrade might be trading Marsh, since he and Crawford appear to be the same player. It's just that Marsh is probably better, for now.

Apparently the Pirates aren't salary-dumping either. They have to keep their salaries over $100 milllion, and also want to do better. Apparently have kicked the tires on Schwarber, lol..

Marlins could be a spot for Bohm, either really could be a spot for Casty (but Phillies would still be paying 75 of that).

The Pirates and Marlins have a sudden willingness to spend. Here’s what could be...

[fish]

I like Reynolds if it is indeed mostly a salary dump for the Pirates

Reynolds has become a poor fielder too.

[zambonir]

We could probably just write that about every CF over 31 or 32, which is why they're also so hard to find. Reynolds hasn't even played an inning there since 2023, nor regularly since 2022.

[andyb]

I am still willing to let Crawford play CF. He probably won't be awful there and we'll have Rojas as a defensive sub most likely. That is the way to make a better team because it is a whole lot easier to find a right-handed power bat to play LF or RF. Even Bader will age in CF the next few years though his instincts will elevate his defense.

Sometimes you roll the dice on improving the guy you have who is also good at other things (OBP, baserunning, etc.). Playing him in LF seems a waste designed to fail since the offensive bar is higher. I just don't think he'll be bad in CF. He needs to improve. Better to start at that now in the majors with better coaching and better positioning help

[EDmuch]

Easier to find a RH power bat for LF or RF?

[zambonir]

Easier? Maybe. Easy? No. But so long as Crawford and Marsh are the other OFs that's certainly what we want.

But if it comes down to choosing between another Kepler type or bringing back Bader, the latter's defense and potential to keep hitting better is probably okay (of course Kepler was also plus defensively but shouldn't have been in LF).

Agree with Andy, let the young kid play and learn the position especially since Marsh is still an excellent defensive LF and any platoon partner can also handle LF. Bader moved to LF for Buxton, can he move to RF? He played 5 games there for Twins, and some early for Cards.

Real question is still if there's a bidding war for him. There's clickbait about him returning to either NY team.

[flyers19rw]

Not interested in Buxton in the least. He's a talent but never healthy. Not worth what he's going to cost for all of the time he'll spend in the IR.

[zambonir]

Bader moved to LF for Buxton on the Twins. Wasn't saying we should get Buxton, who has yet to request a trade (but he might).

But I would still consider him. Even with his injury history he has 4.9, 4.9, 3.9 and 3.6 WAR four of the last five seasons. You settle for 3-400 ABs if he does that every time (only the fifth season was truly bad and shortened). Bader's not without his own injury history (including for us now) and is looking for about the same money ($15M AAV three years is what's left on Buxton't deal).

Agreed the trade price might not be desirable but that is going to be true of anyone good in this OF market.

[andyb]

Easier to find a RH power bat for LF or RF?

If Adolis Garcia costs 2/$20 million versus Bader for 3/$40-45 million who are you going to sign? And Garcia is actually defensively sound in a corner position.

Supply and demand. There are just more bats available in the corner positions compared to CF. Trades and free agents.

[zambonir]

Garcia really is the RHB Kepler, except he's not hitting from what should be his strong side either. Fans would not enjoy him at the plate and he seems unlikely to bounce back.

Why was his WAR so much lower in 2024? I see he was elite in DRS both years.

[andyb]

Why was his WAR so much lower in 2024? I see he was elite in DRS both years.

Some weird artifact in the fielding stats. But generally he has been a positive dWAR in most seasons there. I know there is danger in him becoming more of a 650 OPS bat, but we are talking short term deal at a modest price that free resources elsewhere (as playing Crawford does too).

Doesn't it feel like a situation where DD will go out and get Bregman and then use Bohm and second tier free agents to fill the other holes (includiing some salary space for the bullpen).