Hall of Fame Discussion 2022 and Beyond

[Philsmania]

Granted, the below comes from the Phillies' website so it all may be puffery on the Phillies' part but maybe Hamels HOF case is getting more traction than we may think it is getting, especially now that win totals are starting to matter less.

https://www.mlb.com/phillies/news/cole-hamels-hall-of-fame-case

[andyb]

The case for Cole unfortunately tries the conflicting strategy of saying the counting stats don't matter at the same time as saying the rate statistics don't matter that much also. Cole was very good, but probably needed another 5 WAR or so to really get to Hall of Fame level though certainly lesser pitchers have been named. He is just a half tick behind Sabathia in most comparisons (including the postseason intangible stuff).

[zambonir]

Well we can move all the Abreu talk from the Schwarber here at least

Separately from the actual HOF stuff, I wonder if/when the Phillies will retire some of those '08 numbers. Cole is more deserving than Roy, as a Phillies player, IMO. And Ryan's never going to the Cooperstown but it's hard to separate him from Chase and J-Roll (though it's even harder to separate Chase and J-Roll).

[Philsmania]

Well we can move all the Abreu talk from the Schwarber here at least

Separately from the actual HOF stuff, I wonder if/when the Phillies will retire some of those '08 numbers. Cole is more deserving than Roy, as a Phillies player, IMO. And Ryan's never going to the Cooperstown but it's hard to separate him from Chase and J-Roll (though it's even harder to separate Chase and J-Roll).

Agreed WRT Hamels though the Phillies have kept #35 in circulation--Hector Mercado, Drew Ellis, David Dahl and, most recently, Carlos Hernandez have worn it after it was kept out of circulation from the day he got traded through 2021 (Mercado wore it in 2022). However, numbers 6, 11, and 26 have all remained off-limits, for more than a decade now in the cases of 11 and 26.

[BostonRoss]

The Hamels article isn't very good, IMO. It reads as if the writer was assigned to write a piece making the HOF case for Hamels, and so he cherry picked the numbers he needed to do that. As andyb said, the writer used counting stats when they made his case but switched to rate stats when they didn't. Comparing Cole to Sabathia is fine, but the article ignores that CC won 88 more games than Cole.

As much as I like Cole, I don't think he has a good HOF case, and I doubt he will be voted in during his 10 years of eligibility. He led the league in an important category only once in his career (WHIP in 2008). He finished in the top five in Cy Young voting only once (and that was 5th). His top 10 comparable pitchers on bbref don't include any Hall of Famers; the best of the bunch is Felix Hernandez. His scores on black ink (1!), gray ink, HOF monitor, and HOF standards are far below the numbers for other Hall of Famers.

Cole's career pitching WAR is 58, a range where there aren't many live ball era HOF pitchers. Others in that range include Mark Buehrle, Chuck Finley, and Bret Saberhagen. Buehrle is a decent comp, ahead of Cole in pitching WAR (by 2) and wins (by 51), but behind Cole in ERA, strikeouts, and WHIP. Like Cole, Buehrle has one 5tjh place Cy young finish and led the league in only one important category during his career (WHIP again). I wonder whether White Sox fans believe Buehrle should be in the Hall; he's gotten around 10% of the vote for his five years on the ballot.

Cole does deserve consideration for his postseason heroics, especially in 2008. He was bad in 2009, though; I have to wonder whether another dominant performance could have made the Phillies champs that year.

[andyb]

Chase is surging this year on the HOF ballot at 66% so far. Final totals usually 5%-10% lower than that as the stingy ballots tend to be private. Carlos Beltran and Andruw Jones only ones above the 75% line so far but election not yet certain for them.

How Chase Utley’s surging support reflects an evolution in Hall of Fame voting

[Philsmania]

He may well be on pace to get in in 2-4 years. This year, he cracks 50%, next year he cracks 60%, the year after that he cracks 70%

[Philsmania]

Another perspective on Hamels's candidacy, this time from a non-Philadelphia writer.

There won’t be a new pitcher in Cooperstown in 2026. But King Félix and Cole...

[andyb]

Beltran and Jones get in. Chase 3rd at 59% (7% below the public releases noted above).

Carlos Beltrán, Andruw Jones elected to Baseball Hall of Fame

[xogfog]

Jimmy still around 25% And Cole debuted at close to 24%.

[Docs]

Big jump for Utley, he will hopefully be inducted next year

[Philsmania]

Abreu up to around 30% but he has only three years left. Got to admit, Hamels' debut was impressive. Hopefully, Rollins gets more movement with five years to go. JRoll has to pick up 10% each year. I predict Utley cracks 70% next year and goes in in 2028 (along with Pujols).

[BostonRoss]

Cole was the only first timer to stay on the ballot.

Still no love for the PED guys. Manny is off the ballot now, and A-Rod jumped only from 37% to 40%. Ryan Braun is one and done. Braun is no Hall of Famer, but he probably would have at least stayed on the ballot if he had not been a juicer. His #1 comp on baseball reference is Dick Allen.

[zambonir]

It took 10 years for the Hall to let in all these Internet-voters. It might take another 30 for a new generation of voters to let in a few PED guys on the veteran's committee.

[BostonRoss]

The veterans committee as currently constituted is a crapshoot; 12 votes get you in. And 5 keep you out.

[zambonir]

Oh sure, their chance might also pass before the voting body changes (especially on the committees), and in some cases already has, or soon will. But that could change too.

And at what point does the "contemporary" line move past 1980?

[andyb]

The makeup of whatever they call the veterans committee or eras committee is what will prevent the scandal players from entering the Hall of Fame. Certainly the steroid guys. Since the committee is mostly current Hall of Famers they all take it personally when somebody cheats. Like it or not the sportswriters (especially the younger ones) have a more grounded perspective.

Personally I don't want much of a moral component in the Hall of Fame since getting caught is so subjective. Amphetamines were legal for years and players in all eras have looked for every advantage. Some got caught. Some didn't. Some tried to skirt the rules with substances later declared illegal. Some took something by accident even if we should not believe every player who says that.

Put them all in though the marginal cases should lose points for steroids.

[Philsmania]

It's hard to tell how the VC's will handle things. On the one hand, I agree with andyb that the PED guys may never be forgiven because their transgressions affected the on-the-field production. On the other hand, I could see them coming around on a guy like Rose, Vizquiel or Schilling whose transgressions were off-the-field (if not post-playing career) years after the memories of their transgressions become less fresh and the feelings about them become less raw. That latter is probably what happened with Dick Allen (and many of those who objected to him were probably off in the Great Beyond).

[Philsmania]

Like it or not the sportswriters (especially the younger ones) have a more grounded perspective.

That more grounded perspective didn't put Schilling or Vizquel in. In the case of Vizquel, to the contrary, guys with a more modern perspective on life and social norms are probably less likely to vote for him (his total has been cratering) as opposed to crusty old-school baseball writers who may have just rationalized what he did as him "just being a man".

[zambonir]

I'm just assuming there will be systemic changes eventually. Just not quickly. As things currently stand, Bonds and Clemens won't be considered in 2028 and if they get fewer than five votes in 2031 they are done forever. But the rules (any of them) could change again.

This year's Era committee was:

Fergie Jenkins, Jim Kaat, Juan Marichal, Tony Pérez, Ozzie Smith, Alan Trammell and Robin Yount; Major League executives Mark Attanasio, Doug Melvin, Arte Moreno, Kim Ng, Tony Reagins and Terry Ryan; and veteran media members/historians Steve Hirdt, Tyler Kepner and Jayson Stark.

That's still a pretty creaky group. You'd need to get to the point where the players are guys from the '90s and the executives are the current generation to really expect a different perspective on everything from stats to steroids.

I don't think Pete will ever get 75% of 16. Even Schmidt has said so. But he'll probably keep getting five for multiple cycles.