For Delusional 2016 Phillies Phans

[julio]

At age 22, player Y's numbers in AA (Eastern League, New Britain) were - .305/.361/.373/.734, 7.9% BB rate, 10.1% K rate, 36/49 SB, 73% success rate.

You flipped his OBP and SLG, but that's that Ben Revere dude.

[harrisburghusker]

Shane Victorino?

[julio]

Shane Victorino?

Give that man a twinkie! Shane-o it was.

This doesn't mean, of course, that Goeddel will develop the way Victorino did (and the Ben Revere line makes that point!), but the possibility is there. The Dodgers let Victorino be selected in the Rule 5 draft - not once, but in two different drafts. San Diego decided not to keep him in 2003. The Phils didn't keep him in the majors, but the Dodgers declined to take him back (this was in April 2005). But there was obviously something there, which at least some scouts saw. By the end of the 2005 season, that had become fairly evident.

So...we bide our time, let Goeddel play. He's currently hitting about as well as any other corner outfielder we have, and has potential to improve. David Lough, Peter Bourjos, Cedric Hunter, Will Venable aren't going to improve; they are what they are. Cam Perkins is two years older than Goeddel, doesn't appear to have as much promise.

When another outfielder earns a callup (Nick Williams, I presume), we can hope that's not at the expense of Goeddel's playing time, but rather Bourjos' (the man with no future in Philadelphia). We shall see.

[Austinfan]

Williams will be a while, hitting .260, with 3 Ks tonight, a long way from being ready.
Give Klentak credit for patience, in the past Wade/RA might have packed 3 young prospects for a "name" OF with a big contract on the wrong side of 30 to show he wanted to "compete."

Featherston is the most likely to be called up before the trade deadline, not sure he has any OF experience.
So Asche once he is healthy may be the only OF prospect to get a promotion until September.

[Lawman]

Shane Victorino?

Give that man a twinkie! Shane-o it was.

This doesn't mean, of course, that Goeddel will develop the way Victorino did (and the Ben Revere line makes that point!), but the possibility is there. The Dodgers let Victorino be selected in the Rule 5 draft - not once, but in two different drafts. San Diego decided not to keep him in 2003. The Phils didn't keep him in the majors, but the Dodgers declined to take him back (this was in April 2005). But there was obviously something there, which at least some scouts saw. By the end of the 2005 season, that had become fairly evident.

So...we bide our time, let Goeddel play. He's currently hitting about as well as any other corner outfielder we have, and has potential to improve. David Lough, Peter Bourjos, Cedric Hunter, Will Venable aren't going to improve; they are what they are. Cam Perkins is two years older than Goeddel, doesn't appear to have as much promise.

When another outfielder earns a callup (Nick Williams, I presume), we can hope that's not at the expense of Goeddel's playing time, but rather Bourjos' (the man with no future in Philadelphia). We shall see.

That's what I've said about Goeddel all along. He has upside that the others don't, so there's no downside in playing him as everyday LF.

[zambonir]

There is about a 1% chance this trade ends up a win for the Phillies. Joseph could become an 850 OPS starting 1B and the Phillies still probably lose the trade. Let's wait a little more than 10 AB to put Joseph in the HOF....

I also don't think there is any reason to evaluate the two Pence trades as a single trade. The Phillies lost both trades, period. They didn't get enough production out of Pence during the time they had him, let alone a championship the year they traded for him. They bought him at the peak of his value, sold him when his value was lower (further depressed by the fact that he wasn't really being traded for baseball reasons) and, to add insult to injury, he outplayed every other Phillies OF for the remainder of his contract (which was supposed to part of the value when the Phillies acquired him, the longer term controllability). But apparently Nate Schierholtz is doing ok for Toledo, maybe the Phillies could pick him up and squeeze a little more juice out of that lemon.

I never understood why they traded Pence. I remember posting that he wouldn't be traded because the Phillies still believed they could contend the next year and Pence was still under control. It made no sense. Clearly they hung on trying to contend when they were sliding downhill. They should have followed through on the Pence trade by attempting to rebuild. It never made any sense to me. If they believed that Pence was a good player, then suddenly giving up because he was having an off year means they had no confidence in their original decision to go get him.

I thought it was pretty obvious why they traded Pence. One, they mismanaged the roster and were up against the luxury tax, two, they thought they had acquired an all-star (which he literally was) but he was more of a complementary player, and they were disappointed he failed to carry the team when the other guys got injured, which was a failure of their expectations more than his performance.

Many, of course, have argued they never should have acquired Pence at all, and doing so was more about public relations and overvaluing name veterans when the 2011 offense didn't really need an upgrade.

I do agree though, that having retained Rollins and signed Papelbon and with Halladay and Lee and Howard under contract, they not only should have kept Pence but probably should have re-signed Victorino. Instead we got Delmon Young and Marlon Byrd and Revere.

[tom81]

Mets looking for a 1B, Ryan Howard?
mlbtraderumors.com/2016/05/m ... -home=true

[donaldorc]

Mets looking for a 1B, Ryan Howard?
mlbtraderumors.com/2016/05/m ... -home=true

Yes, this is delusional.

[Lucky_Beagle]

Pete Mackanin pulled Herrera after the centerfielder did not run out a grounder to the pitcher.
Read more at philly.com/philly/sports/phi ... QtTovUu.99

I do not like the way I have been reading about the incident. Did not run out a grounder makes it seem like he stood there and watched it. Why don't they say he jogged down the line, didn't sprint/run hard, or gave up on the play before the out was recorded.? This would give all a more clear picture of the explanation.

My other concern with pulling him is the possibility of any long-term stigma. How often did we hear about Rollins issues of not hustling.

[Philsmania]

Mets looking for a 1B, Ryan Howard?
mlbtraderumors.com/2016/05/m ... -home=true

Yes, this is delusional.

They really need to move Wright to first, or D'Arnaud when he gets healthy.

[EastFallowfield]

They've said they won't move Wright because his back condition barely allows him to play, let alone work at a new position.

[Philsmania]

There is about a 1% chance this trade ends up a win for the Phillies. Joseph could become an 850 OPS starting 1B and the Phillies still probably lose the trade. Let's wait a little more than 10 AB to put Joseph in the HOF....

I also don't think there is any reason to evaluate the two Pence trades as a single trade. The Phillies lost both trades, period. They didn't get enough production out of Pence during the time they had him, let alone a championship the year they traded for him. They bought him at the peak of his value, sold him when his value was lower (further depressed by the fact that he wasn't really being traded for baseball reasons) and, to add insult to injury, he outplayed every other Phillies OF for the remainder of his contract (which was supposed to part of the value when the Phillies acquired him, the longer term controllability). But apparently Nate Schierholtz is doing ok for Toledo, maybe the Phillies could pick him up and squeeze a little more juice out of that lemon.

I never understood why they traded Pence. I remember posting that he wouldn't be traded because the Phillies still believed they could contend the next year and Pence was still under control. It made no sense. Clearly they hung on trying to contend when they were sliding downhill. They should have followed through on the Pence trade by attempting to rebuild. It never made any sense to me. If they believed that Pence was a good player, then suddenly giving up because he was having an off year means they had no confidence in their original decision to go get him.

I thought it was pretty obvious why they traded Pence. One, they mismanaged the roster and were up against the luxury tax, two, they thought they had acquired an all-star (which he literally was) but he was more of a complementary player, and they were disappointed he failed to carry the team when the other guys got injured, which was a failure of their expectations more than his performance.

Many, of course, have argued they never should have acquired Pence at all, and doing so was more about public relations and overvaluing name veterans when the 2011 offense didn't really need an upgrade.

I do agree though, that having retained Rollins and signed Papelbon and with Halladay and Lee and Howard under contract, they not only should have kept Pence but probably should have re-signed Victorino. Instead we got Delmon Young and Marlon Byrd and Revere.

I think the second Pence trade was actually the worse of the two Pence trades. We overpaid to get him but the haul we gave up still has yet to come back to haunt us. If we kept Cosart, Singleton, Santana and Zeid, we would have been at best only marginally better since 2013 when the started cracking the big leagues. Singleton would be a bust who probably would be let go after this season (if he wasn't let go after last). Cosart would be Hellickson now so that's probably a wash for 2016. Zeid would be gone. And, Santana would be starting in our outfield but frustrating us with comparisons to Domonic Brown as a guy with supposed great potential who just can't put it together. I have a hard time really missing any of these guys at this point. As for the trade of him to San Francisco, he still had a year of team control left and was a season removed from his seeming breakout season. Perhaps it was just a salary dump, but you think they could have gotten more for him in light of the team control and that he wasn't just another overpaid fading old vet. Pence has gone on to become an iconic Giant and a fan favorite and Giant fans probably talk about that trade the way we talk about the John Kruk trade.

[zambonir]

Pete Mackanin pulled Herrera after the centerfielder did not run out a grounder to the pitcher.
Read more at philly.com/philly/sports/phi ... QtTovUu.99

I do not like the way I have been reading about the incident. Did not run out a grounder makes it seem like he stood there and watched it. Why don't they say he jogged down the line, didn't sprint/run hard, or gave up on the play before the out was recorded.? This would give all a more clear picture of the explanation.

My other concern with pulling him is the possibility of any long-term stigma. How often did we hear about Rollins issues of not hustling.

Rollins seemed to manage.

This isn't the first time this has happened with Herrera, there were multiple incidents last year (one benching, one non-benching).

phillyvoice.com/why-didnt-ma ... ck-hustle/

espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/13708 ... t-hustling

[EDmuch]

It will be interesting to see if the "delusional" tag is still in effect after the next 2 weeks. We are coming up against some big offensive power teams. Will our "score one more than they do" offense be able to hold up?

[donaldorc]

It will be interesting to see if the "delusional" tag is still in effect after the next 2 weeks. We are coming up against some big offensive power teams. Will our "score one more than they do" offense be able to hold up?

I have my doubts. St. Louis was an example of how they might do these next five games. I hope they can salvage one from each series.

[Philsmania]

It will be interesting to see if the "delusional" tag is still in effect after the next 2 weeks. We are coming up against some big offensive power teams. Will our "score one more than they do" offense be able to hold up?

I have my doubts. St. Louis was an example of how they might do these next five games. I hope they can salvage one from each series.

I thought the Cardinal series was going to be the beginning of the end but then they went 8-4 in their next 12 though it was all against the Marlins, Braves and Reds. Aside from a series against the Brewers, the schedule gets much less friendly over the next few weeks.

[Lucky_Beagle]

It will be interesting to see if the "delusional" tag is still in effect after the next 2 weeks. We are coming up against some big offensive power teams. Will our "score one more than they do" offense be able to hold up?

not last night it came up 2 runs short

[tom81]

Steve Finley is the comp being thrown around for Moniak. A good but not great player. The downside with drafting Moniak 1-1 is the risk associated with any HS prospect and pairing that risk with the ceiling of a good but not great player. With Aaron Nola in the 7th pick I welcomed that risk/reward tradeoff. Any HS player has more risk by definition though.

There is just no obvious choice in this draft and it is frustrating. I really wish they were more serious about Groome. I have not heard a good reason not to draft him other than being a HS player..

The obvious delusional comp for Moniak is the sweet swinging left handed hitter from an earlier era who was the hitting coach for Moniak's grandfather and also from the San Diego area, Teddy Ballgame. William Moniak is listed as 6'2" 200 on BBREF so it's surely possible that Mickey could get to that size. That's pretty close to the Splinter's 6'3" 205.

[tom81]

Peter Bourjos has put up a 1.039 OPS in the month of June! He is basically at replacement level for the year! If he keeps this up to the trade deadline we could actually get a useful return in a trade.

[bkeich]

Peter Bourjos has put up a 1.039 OPS in the month of June! He is basically at replacement level for the year! If he keeps this up to the trade deadline we could actually get a useful return in a trade.

This has to be one of the most unexpected long hot streaks I remember. He has a .489 BaBIP in June, I am not even sure The Flash could do that. To be fair to him he had a almost as unrealistic BaBIP of .260 before that.

He isn't a good player, but it isn't lack of effort, he just can't hit. If we get something for him it will be an unexpected bonus, but it s still fun to see a guy who makes the most of his limited talent.