For Delusional 2016 Phillies Phans

tom81 2016-05-18 12:12:32 UTC #141

Here is a potential RF upgrade that would only cost money.

mlbtraderumors.com/2016/05/i ... -home=true

He might want to come to a team that is a half a game out of first place and that has a large Latin American contingent.

EastFallowfield 2016-05-18 20:33:20 UTC #142

Matt Winkelman on Twitter:

The Phillies had a -31 run differential over their 6-9 start, it is +4 since then while they have gone 18-8.

California_Dreamin 2016-05-18 20:56:43 UTC #143

Speaking of delusional, it is still very much in the realm of possibility that the defiled Hunter Pence deal could still end up being a win for the Phillies. Singleton is an abysmal strikeout machine in AAA ball and is hitting .202. Santana is an even worse strikeout machine in Milwaukee and has struck out 12 of his last 19 plate appearances and a staggering 40+ over 109 at bats this year.

And while andyb [a guy I respect a whole lot] often sites the WAR of Cosart career wise, the truth is that he only had one decent year and has done almost nothing over the past few and now has a bad arm.

The only Pence guy seemingly on the ascension is Tommy Joseph and if he pans out [and I think he will at 1b if he is allowed to play regularly] somehow, someway the Hunter Pence Legacy may still end up being a positive one.

tom81 2016-05-18 23:48:28 UTC #144

Wow quite the turn around for Goeddel since this post, see what I know. Maybe I'll get credit for the reverse black that got him going.

Austinfan 2016-05-19 03:55:13 UTC #145

Goeddel has had a little luck lately, but that's sorta things evening out.

Problem is I don't think he has tremendous upside, he's always going to be a tad marginal as a starter, probably won't hit .300 (.280 or so), doesn't have a great batting eye, has gap power but no more, good but not great speed, good but not great OF. Right now I'd project him as .280/.330/.400 - .730 OPS with above average defense. A solid rule 5 pickup but more of a 4th OF for a playoff team. However, if he fills out a bit and ups his power, and becomes a little more selective, maybe he ends up .280/.350/.450 - but that's probably his longshot upside.

Herrera can spoil you, but he's really a freak show, I can't remember another player making the strides he's made the last two seasons at his age.

el-pietro 2016-05-19 07:26:25 UTC #146

Yeah realistically he isn't the long term answer, but right now he's showing he can hold his own in the show and deserves a starting position in this version of the Phillies. If we had Altherr, or if Williams were up I'd say let him be the 4th OF.

Is he any worse than Ben Revere though? Sure he doesn't hit quite as well as Revere, but there's definitely more power there. Too early to say in the majors but he walked close to 50 times in each of his last two minor league seasons. 9.01% in AA, and 9.60% in High A. 8.90% over two seasons at Low A.

harrisburghusker 2016-05-19 12:18:37 UTC #147

Austinfan:

Goeddel has had a little luck lately, but that's sorta things evening out.

Problem is I don't think he has tremendous upside, he's always going to be a tad marginal as a starter, probably won't hit .300 (.280 or so), doesn't have a great batting eye, has gap power but no more, good but not great speed, good but not great OF. Right now I'd project him as .280/.330/.400 - .730 OPS with above average defense. A solid rule 5 pickup but more of a 4th OF for a playoff team. However, if he fills out a bit and ups his power, and becomes a little more selective, maybe he ends up .280/.350/.450 - but that's probably his longshot upside.

Herrera can spoil you, but he's really a freak show, I can't remember another player making the strides he's made the last two seasons at his age.

I made the Zobrist-lite comparison a few days ago as a potential ceiling for Goeddel

Lawman 2016-05-19 12:33:18 UTC #148

Austinfan:

Goeddel has had a little luck lately, but that's sorta things evening out.

Problem is I don't think he has tremendous upside, he's always going to be a tad marginal as a starter, probably won't hit .300 (.280 or so), doesn't have a great batting eye, has gap power but no more, good but not great speed, good but not great OF. Right now I'd project him as .280/.330/.400 - .730 OPS with above average defense. A solid rule 5 pickup but more of a 4th OF for a playoff team. However, if he fills out a bit and ups his power, and becomes a little more selective, maybe he ends up .280/.350/.450 - but that's probably his longshot upside.

Herrera can spoil you, but he's really a freak show, I can't remember another player making the strides he's made the last two seasons at his age.

I'm not delusional on Goeddel. But, if I have to start him or Lough, I'd sooner start Goeddel. There's more potential upside/unknown with him, so why not? And it's not like his being on the roster is hurting anyone in AAA that deserves a spot. So yeah, start Goeddel, let him get experience and playing time, and see what happens.

julio 2016-05-19 14:51:37 UTC #149

Ben Revere's lifetime BA/OBP/SLG/OPS: .291/.325/.344/.669. He's 28 years old, and his best seasons to date were at ages 25-27. He's not playing all that much for the Nationals (behind Harper/Werth/Taylor), and hasn't hit much.

Tyler Goeddel is 23. Through last night, he's at .262/.284/.369/.653. Not great - but at age 23, Ben Revere put up .267/.310/.309/.619. Moreover, I'll wager that Goeddel's age 23 line will look better on October 2nd than it does today. What his line may look like at age 26...well, we'll see.

And I haven't mentioned outfield defense. Goeddel's been in the outfield for a bit more than one season (converted from infield in 2015); he's already arguably a better outfielder than Revere. He's still learning to read the ball off the bat, but he's improving...and when he gets to a ball, the likelihood that he can do something constructive with it (e.g., throw it somewhere - anywhere - with some authority) is much better than Revere.

So I would say no, he's not worse than Revere; he has a chance to be better. He clearly has more pop in his bat, and a much better arm. Let's look at his OBP again in September to get an idea where he stands against Revere in terms of that skill.

andyb 2016-05-19 15:12:25 UTC #150

California Dreamin:

Speaking of delusional, it is still very much in the realm of possibility that the defiled Hunter Pence deal could still end up being a win for the Phillies. Singleton is an abysmal strikeout machine in AAA ball and is hitting .202. Santana is an even worse strikeout machine in Milwaukee and has struck out 12 of his last 19 plate appearances and a staggering 40+ over 109 at bats this year.

And while andyb [a guy I respect a whole lot] often sites the WAR of Cosart career wise, the truth is that he only had one decent year and has done almost nothing over the past few and now has a bad arm.

The only Pence guy seemingly on the ascension is Tommy Joseph and if he pans out [and I think he will at 1b if he is allowed to play regularly] somehow, someway the Hunter Pence Legacy may still end up being a positive one.

But Cosart got traded by Houston for Jake Marisnick and Colin Moran. Marisnick is struggling this year but delivered 3.7 WAR in 2014 and 2015. Moran (3B) is a former #1 pick that ranked as a top 100 prospect and just got called up the other day at age 23.

I am happy that Joseph has made the majors and might turn into something. But let's be real - there is no way the Phillies are going to win this trade. You just dismiss Santana because of strikeouts, but he is a 23-year-old OF that has put up a 766 and 734 OPS for the Brewers in 2015 and 2016. He would be starting for the Phillies.

There is about a 1% chance this trade ends up a win for the Phillies. Joseph could become an 850 OPS starting 1B and the Phillies still probably lose the trade. Let's wait a little more than 10 AB to put Joseph in the HOF....

andyb 2016-05-19 15:18:45 UTC #151

julio:

el-pietro:

Is [Goeddel] any worse than Ben Revere though? Sure he doesn't hit quite as well as Revere, but there's definitely more power there. Too early to say in the majors but he walked close to 50 times in each of his last two minor league seasons. 9.01% in AA, and 9.60% in High A. 8.90% over two seasons at Low A.
Ben Revere's lifetime BA/OBP/SLG/OPS: .291/.325/.344/.669. He's 28 years old, and his best seasons to date were at ages 25-27. He's not playing all that much for the Nationals (behind Harper/Werth/Taylor), and hasn't hit much.

Tyler Goeddel is 23. Through last night, he's at .262/.284/.369/.653. Not great - but at age 23, Ben Revere put up .267/.310/.309/.619. Moreover, I'll wager that Goeddel's age 23 line will look better on October 2nd than it does today. What his line may look like at age 26...well, we'll see.

And I haven't mentioned outfield defense. Goeddel's been in the outfield for a bit more than one season (converted from infield in 2015); he's already arguably a better outfielder than Revere. He's still learning to read the ball off the bat, but he's improving...and when he gets to a ball, the likelihood that he can do something constructive with it (e.g., throw it somewhere - anywhere - with some authority) is much better than Revere.

So I would say no, he's not worse than Revere; he has a chance to be better. He clearly has more pop in his bat, and a much better arm. Let's look at his OBP again in September to get an idea where he stands against Revere in terms of that skill.

To be fair to Revere, OBP is more important than SLG and hits are better than walks. This is why Revere rates better in WAR stats than in OPS because of the flaws in OPS. Revere was also hurt. He should be a full time starter in Washington.

I am happy Goeddel is playing well though let's not read too much into such a small sample. He is likely to be under his current stat line while Revere is a decent bet to repeat his own career line. Goeddel is decent on defense but he is probably not better than Revere when range is considered. It is nice that Goeddel is surviving and earning himself some additional AB. Not sure he amounts to much more than a 4th OF based on what I have seen. He is probably not quite as good as Altherr in all phases of the game and we are not sure what we have in Altherr.

julio 2016-05-19 16:15:58 UTC #152

Absolutely agree about OBP vs. SLG - and yes, OPS over-values SLG. I can agree that oWAR helps here - but then you get the muddiness that's contributed by dWAR, so I remain to be convinced about WAR overall. There's also the problem that WAR is a counting/cumulative measure, not a measure of productive rate.

This remains to be seen. It's certainly a small sample at this point - but Goeddel's current seasonal stat line is substantially worse than his line for the past four weeks; it's not at all clear to me that we should expect the rest of the season to reflect his current seasonal numbers, as opposed to his last month or so. Too early to tell.

As for prognostication - it depends on your timeframe, I think. Ben Revere could be expected to repeat his career line - for the next season or two (he's 28, his game is built on speed). Goeddel is 23; I don't know what his career averages look like, but they're likely better than his age 23 numbers will be. I know I don't have to remind you that age matters - a lot.

That said - no, we shouldn't expect another big score like we got with Odubel Herrera. Yes, he's at the age (23 last year, 24 this year) where prospects sometimes make substantial gains, but his rate of improvement is...well, kind of amazing. It would not be reasonable to expect Goeddel (or any Rule 5 pick) to improve at that rate.

Not to pile too much on Goeddel, but consider:

At age 22, Goeddel's numbers in AA (Southern League, Montgomery) were .279/.350/.433/.783. BB% of 9.0%; K% of 18.4%. SB/CS: 28/9, 76%.
At age 22, Player x's numbers in AA (Southern League, Jacksonville) were .282/.340/.368/.709. BB% of 7.2%; K% of 14%. SB/CS: 16/7, 70%.

Who is more interesting? Essentially the same BA; Goeddel slightly better at getting on base overall, with better power. Better BB rate, somewhat more strikeouts. Goeddel ran more, to a slightly better SB%. You pick 'em.

Lawman 2016-05-19 16:54:49 UTC #153

I'd pick Goeddel, so I'll bite, who is "Player X?"

julio 2016-05-19 17:01:24 UTC #154

I'll wait a bit before I answer this...

Austinfan 2016-05-19 18:01:07 UTC #155

One thing in Goeddel's favor is he "looks" like a hitter, smooth swing.
He also looks like he could fill out a bit more, maybe add 10 lbs the next 2-3 years and improve his alley power - he's never going to be a bopper, but he should be able to keep OFs honest.

Unknown question is whether his current streak is due to luck or improved pitch recognition with experience, the ability to see the ball out of the pitcher's hand is key to hitting at a high level.

Lawman 2016-05-19 18:06:41 UTC #156

Tell you what...remember the old game of Initial Baseball? Let's play it here if you're up for it. You give me a player's initials.

HR - I get it w/o any other info

3B - I get it after asking one question (Which Position?)

2B - I get it after asking two questions ((Which Position? and Which League?)

1B - I get it after asking three questions ((Which Position? and Which League? and Which Team?)

mdougherty12 2016-05-19 18:07:38 UTC #157

julio:

andyb:

To be fair to Revere, OBP is more important than SLG and hits are better than walks. This is why Revere rates better in WAR stats than in OPS because of the flaws in OPS. Revere was also hurt. He should be a full time starter in Washington.
Absolutely agree about OBP vs. SLG - and yes, OPS over-values SLG. I can agree that oWAR helps here - but then you get the muddiness that's contributed by dWAR, so I remain to be convinced about WAR overall. There's also the problem that WAR is a counting/cumulative measure, not a measure of productive rate.

[quote]I am happy Goeddel is playing well though let's not read too much into such a small sample. He is likely to be under his current stat line while Revere is a decent bet to repeat his own career line. Goeddel is decent on defense but he is probably not better than Revere when range is considered. It is nice that Goeddel is surviving and earning himself some additional AB. Not sure he amounts to much more than a 4th OF based on what I have seen. He is probably not quite as good as Altherr in all phases of the game and we are not sure what we have in Altherr.[/quote]

This remains to be seen. It's certainly a small sample at this point - but Goeddel's current seasonal stat line is substantially worse than his line for the past four weeks; it's not at all clear to me that we should expect the rest of the season to reflect his current seasonal numbers, as opposed to his last month or so. Too early to tell.

As for prognostication - it depends on your timeframe, I think. Ben Revere could be expected to repeat his career line - for the next season or two (he's 28, his game is built on speed). Goeddel is 23; I don't know what his career averages look like, but they're likely better than his age 23 numbers will be. I know I don't have to remind you that age matters - a lot.

That said - no, we shouldn't expect another big score like we got with Odubel Herrera. Yes, he's at the age (23 last year, 24 this year) where prospects sometimes make substantial gains, but his rate of improvement is...well, kind of amazing. It would not be reasonable to expect Goeddel (or any Rule 5 pick) to improve at that rate.

Not to pile too much on Goeddel, but consider:

At age 22, Goeddel's numbers in AA (Southern League, Montgomery) were .279/.350/.433/.783. BB% of 9.0%; K% of 18.4%. SB/CS: 28/9, 76%.
At age 22, Player x's numbers in AA (Southern League, Jacksonville) were .282/.340/.368/.709. BB% of 7.2%; K% of 14%. SB/CS: 16/7, 70%.

Who is more interesting? Essentially the same BA; Goeddel slightly better at getting on base overall, with better power. Better BB rate, somewhat more strikeouts. Goeddel ran more, to a slightly better SB%. You pick 'em.

At age 22, player Y's numbers in AA (Eastern League, New Britain) were - .305/.361/.373/.734, 7.9% BB rate, 10.1% K rate, 36/49 SB, 73% success rate.

Sent from my XT1053 using Tapatalk

zambonir 2016-05-19 18:13:17 UTC #158

I also don't think there is any reason to evaluate the two Pence trades as a single trade. The Phillies lost both trades, period. They didn't get enough production out of Pence during the time they had him, let alone a championship the year they traded for him. They bought him at the peak of his value, sold him when his value was lower (further depressed by the fact that he wasn't really being traded for baseball reasons) and, to add insult to injury, he outplayed every other Phillies OF for the remainder of his contract (which was supposed to part of the value when the Phillies acquired him, the longer term controllability).

But apparently Nate Schierholtz is doing ok for Toledo, maybe the Phillies could pick him up and squeeze a little more juice out of that lemon.

schillingfan 2016-05-19 20:00:39 UTC #159

zambonir:

andyb:

There is about a 1% chance this trade ends up a win for the Phillies. Joseph could become an 850 OPS starting 1B and the Phillies still probably lose the trade. Let's wait a little more than 10 AB to put Joseph in the HOF....
I also don't think there is any reason to evaluate the two Pence trades as a single trade. The Phillies lost both trades, period. They didn't get enough production out of Pence during the time they had him, let alone a championship the year they traded for him. They bought him at the peak of his value, sold him when his value was lower (further depressed by the fact that he wasn't really being traded for baseball reasons) and, to add insult to injury, he outplayed every other Phillies OF for the remainder of his contract (which was supposed to part of the value when the Phillies acquired him, the longer term controllability). But apparently Nate Schierholtz is doing ok for Toledo, maybe the Phillies could pick him up and squeeze a little more juice out of that lemon.

I never understood why they traded Pence. I remember posting that he wouldn't be traded because the Phillies still believed they could contend the next year and Pence was still under control. It made no sense. Clearly they hung on trying to contend when they were sliding downhill. They should have followed through on the Pence trade by attempting to rebuild. It never made any sense to me. If they believed that Pence was a good player, then suddenly giving up because he was having an off year means they had no confidence in their original decision to go get him.

julio 2016-05-19 22:02:49 UTC #160

Lawman:

julio:

Lawman:

julio:

At age 22, Goeddel's numbers in AA (Southern League, Montgomery) were .279/.350/.433/.783. BB% of 9.0%; K% of 18.4%. SB/CS: 28/9, 76%.
At age 22, Player x's numbers in AA (Southern League, Jacksonville) were .282/.340/.368/.709. BB% of 7.2%; K% of 14%. SB/CS: 16/7, 70%.

Who is more interesting? Essentially the same BA; Goeddel slightly better at getting on base overall, with better power. Better BB rate, somewhat more strikeouts. Goeddel ran more, to a slightly better SB%. You pick 'em.

I'd pick Goeddel, so I'll bite, who is "Player X?"
I'll wait a bit before I answer this...

Tell you what...remember the old game of Initial Baseball? Let's play it here if you're up for it. You give me a player's initials.

HR - I get it w/o any other info

3B - I get it after asking one question (Which Position?)

2B - I get it after asking two questions ((Which Position? and Which League?)

1B - I get it after asking three questions ((Which Position? and Which League? and Which Team?)

Can't do it - if I give you the player's initials, it will be all over! Trust me. I'll say this, though; he has something in common with Tyler Goeddel (other than that they've both played in the major leagues).