BA's 2016 Post-Season Top 20 Lists

Squire 2016-09-23 13:27:57 UTC #1

So Baseball America is about to start their League Top 20 prospect lists. As always it will be interesting to see where the Phillies stand:

My view of Phillies Contenders for possible inclusion -

GCL - Moniak, Ortiz, Sanchez
NY-Penn League - Medina, very very small chance of someone like Hall or Martinelli
South Atlantic League - Kilome, Tirado, Pujols
Florida State League - Kinger, Elniery Garcia....very very small chance of Zach Martin
Eastern League - Cozens, Hoskins, Pivetta
International League - Crawford, Thompson, Eflin (if eligible)...small chance for Williams, very small chance for Lively

kmc1019 2016-09-23 14:13:40 UTC #2

Nice list, and thanks for it.

Though their numbers were not great, I'm hoping others from the GCL team - perhaps Gowdy, Andrew Brown, Josh Stephen and Stobbe - might also crack the Top 20.

The Williamsport team was one of the worst collection of hitters in all of the minors, so not hoping for much there.

Agree with you on FSL, AA and AAA.

bigegypt0417 2016-09-23 14:43:38 UTC #3

kmc1019:

Squire:

So Baseball America is about to start their League Top 20 prospect lists. As always it will be interesting to see where the Phillies stand:

My view of Phillies Contenders for possible inclusion -

GCL - Moniak, Ortiz, Sanchez
NY-Penn League - Medina, very very small chance of someone like Hall or Martinelli
South Atlantic League - Kilome, Tirado, Pujols
Florida State League - Kinger, Elniery Garcia....very very small chance of Zach Martin
Eastern League - Cozens, Hoskins, Pivetta
International League - Crawford, Thompson, Eflin (if eligible)...small chance for Williams, very small chance for Lively

Nice list, and thanks for it.

Though their numbers were not great, I'm hoping others from the GCL team - perhaps Gowdy, Andrew Brown, Josh Stephen and Stobbe - might also crack the Top 20.

The Williamsport team was one of the worst collection of hitters in all of the minors, so not hoping for much there.

Agree with you on FSL, AA and AAA.

Ba also loves ranking based on upside so there is always one or two players on their lists you wouldn't expect.

andyb 2016-09-23 15:01:37 UTC #4

AZL and Pioneer leagues are up today. If they do 2 at a time GCL should be Monday or Tuesday.

On GCL Moniak should be a lock for the top 5. I am less certain about Sanchez and Ortiz. Sanchez seems to belong on stuff and performance, but will get dinged for lack of projection. Ortiz is also an interesting case. The large bonus probably gives him a leg up compared to other prospects, though this is a league with a dozen number one picks and an equal number of high dollar Latin American signings. Only other possibility in my mind is Gowdy though he pitched so little that a ranking is uncertain. He might be a better prospect than Sanchez even if he is a little less ready for pro ball. He has the body and the variety of pitches that suggest mid-rotation starter even if he did not get much of a chance to show it. Deserved or not, the 6'4" 170 pitcher gets points over the 5'10" 150 guy.

Williamsport may be tough to place anybody. Remember it is a big 14-team league and our team had no top picks on it. Medina is probably the best prospect though his low K rate might hurt his chances. Like it or not he was only good this year, not great. Gamboa is probably the best prospect among hitters and I can't imagine he has a chance.

In the SAL Kilome is a definite. Tirado and Pujols have a shot at the end of the list but are not certain. I actually think Randolph places ahead of both of them. Think of it this way - he is probably in our top 10 and Tirado and Pujols are not. Now since the list is a vote of league managers in part they may not have seen enough of a healthy Randolph to place him, but he belongs.

Austinfan 2016-09-23 15:08:21 UTC #5

Sanchez is a lock, premier stuff and out of this world performance.
I don't think height is as big of a deal these days, turns out there's no correleation between height and durability.
And you don't need to project additional velocity when the kid is already at 95 MPH.

andyb 2016-09-23 15:48:53 UTC #6

He is probably a lock but he will get downgraded because of his height. I am not sure you can say there is no correlation between height and durability. The more pertinent correlation though could be whether he can maintain his stuff as he gets older. A shorter pitcher will have a higher effort motion almost by definition and as they get older they lose flexibility. Look what has happened to Lincecum as he has aged. His stuff held through age 26 or 27 and it was downhill once he hit that point.

I have not really seen a great study on short versus taller pitchers frankly because it is difficult. The draft and development process select out most of the shorter guys from the start. With the average height of pitchers in the 6'3" to 6'4" range and the average height in the population more like 5'10" we clearly are paring down the population to something like pitchers that throw at least 88 or 90 from the start. And a much higher share of tall pitchers do that than shorter pitchers.

Once we get to the majors we have then narrowed down that biased universe selection to the ones that have enough pitches, skill, and velocity to succeed in the majors. That winnowing process takes out more shorter pitchers most likely. It is kind of indisputable that taller human beings that pitch throw harder on average than shorter human beings.

Some of the bias against shorter pitchers like Sanchez is probably unfounded because Sanchez clearly has uncommon skill and ability for a shorter pitcher. It is still a valid question as to whether he can maintain that and whether the odds are equal to that of a taller pitcher.

Squire 2016-09-23 17:38:44 UTC #7

I should add Alfaro as someone who might get EL consideration too.

olgrandad 2016-09-23 20:15:44 UTC #8

Absolutely.

And I hope Sanchez gets recognized.

bigegypt0417 2016-09-26 13:13:28 UTC #9

Can't see the whole list but Moniak is #1 GCL and Sixto Sanchez is the Pitcher of the year...

based on the hash tags its those two and Ortiz.

Squire 2016-09-26 13:20:13 UTC #10

Even better

1 Mickey Moniak, OF

7 Sixto Sanchez, RHP

12 Daniel Brito, 2B

15 Jhailyn Ortiz, OF

bigegypt0417 2016-09-26 13:22:15 UTC #11

Awesome! 4 of the top 15 is nothing to sneeze at.

Squire 2016-09-26 13:44:38 UTC #12

It sure isn't. Brito is a nice surprise.

bigegypt0417 2016-09-26 13:49:49 UTC #13

I think its why I didn't even notice him.

Any chance the Phillies send Moniak to Lakewood like they did with Randolph?

Squire 2016-09-26 14:06:03 UTC #14

Moniak definitely going to Lakewood next year. No doubt in my mind.

kmc1019 2016-09-26 14:27:07 UTC #15

1 Mickey Moniak, OF

7 Sixto Sanchez, RHP

12 Daniel Brito, 2B

15 Jhailyn Ortiz, OF

No way to know, but if the list were extended to Top 30, I bet the Phillies - with Stephen, Stobbe and a few more of those arms - would dominate.

Hope the depth at GCL means the system improves as these young players rise through the ranks in the coming years!

andyb 2016-09-26 14:40:28 UTC #16

Brito is a nice surprise and probably a sign that scouts and managers like his defense too. I was a little wary on that when he was immediately moved to 2B and then last year actually DH'd for the most part in DSL. It could have been nothing more than them now wanting him to learn 2B in games.

Squire 2016-09-28 13:09:08 UTC #17

BA NY-Penn League Top 20 - Adonis Medina at #11

phillychuck 2016-09-28 14:08:30 UTC #18

Yeah, it's not entirely clear to me that Moniak (#1 in the league) is better than Stephen (unranked). That's such a deep team!

Not a great year for WMPT in the NYPL, but I'd think about ranking Darick Hall and Cole Irvin in addition to Medina. Hall had an especially strong finish, and Irvin didn't pitch a lot, but was dominant when he did.

bigegypt0417 2016-09-30 14:20:33 UTC #19

SAL Top 20

8-Kilome

19-Jose Taveraz

phillychuck 2016-09-30 14:35:56 UTC #20

SAL has so many teams it's hard to get honors. Nice that Kilome is still in the top 10 despite his cold-weather struggles. Taveraz is a surprise to me. Randolph was out too long, I would have thought about Cumana and Grullon in a smaller league. Some of their better players didn't play a full season because of promotion. Overall, a nice result.