BA's 2016 Post-Season Top 20 Lists

[bigegypt0417]

SAL Top 20

#8-Kilome

#19-Jose Taveraz

SAL has so many teams it's hard to get honors. Nice that Kilome is still in the top 10 despite his cold-weather struggles. Taveraz is a surprise to me. Randolph was out too long, I would have thought about Cumana and Grullon in a smaller league. Some of their better players didn't play a full season because of promotion. Overall, a nice result.

the braves had 7 players in the top 20, lol.

[andyb]

Pulling out the Randolph question from the BA chat. They still like him as a prospect and he just missed the list. But the defensive shortcomings really highlight that he needs to add power to be a good player in LF which is what I feared when I pointed out that defensive ability was why we could not rank him quite as high as some other players. He was a bit of a reach IMO where we drafted him in the first round.

Jonathan (Syracuse, NY): I know Cornelius Randolph had a rough year, but I was surprised to see him not sneak in amidst the last few names. Would you say that all 20 names are better prospects than Randolph at this point, or is his omission in part just a reflection of poor performance?

J.J. Cooper: He was one of the first off the list. Randolph wasn't bad when you consider his age. He draws walks. He hit and he was 18 for the first half of the season. That's all good. But scouts do wonder just how much impact he'll have. He's a left fielder who has work to do defensively and his speed has dropped a grade or more since he was drafted. Randolph will need to hit for power as a left fielder, which gives him a significant to-do list, as his opposite-field approach so far hasn't shown much ability to hit to the wall in the oppo gap

[bigegypt0417]

Scott Kingery only phillie on the FSL list at 14...

[kmc1019]

Scott Kingery only phillie on the FSL list at 14...

Not surprising among the position players. I would have liked to seen RHP Drew Anderson on there. Not sure about his stuff, but numbers - 1.10 WHIP and >10 K/9 IP - are really impressive.

I don't think the Phils need to protect Tocci in Rule 5 draft as he is nowhere near MLB ready and his ceiling seems pretty uncertain and moderate at best.

[Austinfan]

Does show the hole in the organization at the lower levels, they're not devoid of talent, but between GCL and Reading, they're closer to average. Next year Lakewood could be very good, and depending on the draft, GCL and Williamsport given the LA prospects they'll be bringing in the next two seasons. Clearwater will be the hole in the donut, while Reading will slip back.

[allentown]

Does show the hole in the organization at the lower levels, they're not devoid of talent, but between GCL and Reading, they're closer to average. Next year Lakewood could be very good, and depending on the draft, GCL and Williamsport given the LA prospects they'll be bringing in the next two seasons. Clearwater will be the hole in the donut, while Reading will slip back.

And that REALLY says something considering the finishes the MLB team has had the past several years. Our draft position is worsening, so this isn't about to get any easier. The strength at the top is more players we traded for than guys who we signed and developed on the farm. This is exactly why FA, trades for big contracts, and over-23 international FA are needed and why not spending to 150% of our international allocation this year was so bad. The BIG deal here is the lack of cheers for our former #1 Cornelius Randolph and Encarnacion not being on this team. Our scouts had to hit on those two and our development guys had to make something of them.

[Austinfan]

Encarnacion is a miss, Randolph was just a dinged up season. I expect him to bounce back next year.

[andyb]

Encarnacion just turned 19 so I would not classify him as a miss. He only had a mid-level bonus though. The big point is that the team needs to sign a half dozen Encarnacions every season or load up once every 3 years. They have not done so yet.

The lower minors are better than average. They had no high college draftees this year so Williamsport was always going to be the worst of their short season teams, especially when Randolph was skipped to Lakewood. Next season will be more of a mix as maybe only Moniak will skip. GCL was possibly the most talented rookie level franchise in baseball though.

Lakewood and Clearwater were both also better than average. Unfortunately they did it with depth of prospects. You probably have 3 or more on each team that might have placed in the second 20. Guys like Viza and Garcia and Anderson represent some quality in Clearwater among second tier prospects. Same with the Lakewood arms that just missed.

The lesson here is the team needs more top 100 level prospects. It is a fairly balanced system and will no longer be top heavy when the Reading guys like Quinn and Alfaro (both of whom could easily be in the majors next year) start to graduate. This is why deals for guys like Rupp and Galvis might make sense. They can bring back more top 100 level prospects and they are potentially replaced by better players from within.

[allentown]

Encarnacion just turned 19 so I would not classify him as a miss. He only had a mid-level bonus though. The big point is that the team needs to sign a half dozen Encarnacions every season or load up once every 3 years. They have not done so yet.

The lower minors are better than average. They had no high college draftees this year so Williamsport was always going to be the worst of their short season teams, especially when Randolph was skipped to Lakewood. Next season will be more of a mix as maybe only Moniak will skip. GCL was possibly the most talented rookie level franchise in baseball though.

Lakewood and Clearwater were both also better than average. Unfortunately they did it with depth of prospects. You probably have 3 or more on each team that might have placed in the second 20. Guys like Viza and Garcia and Anderson represent some quality in Clearwater among second tier prospects. Same with the Lakewood arms that just missed.

The lesson here is the team needs more top 100 level prospects. It is a fairly balanced system and will no longer be top heavy when the Reading guys like Quinn and Alfaro (both of whom could easily be in the majors next year) start to graduate. This is why deals for guys like Rupp and Galvis might make sense. They can bring back more top 100 level prospects and they are potentially replaced by better players from within.

I thought he got a $1 million bonus, our largest LA bonus except for Ortiz, and not small for its time.

[andyb]

Encarnacion just turned 19 so I would not classify him as a miss. He only had a mid-level bonus though. The big point is that the team needs to sign a half dozen Encarnacions every season or load up once every 3 years. They have not done so yet.

The lower minors are better than average. They had no high college draftees this year so Williamsport was always going to be the worst of their short season teams, especially when Randolph was skipped to Lakewood. Next season will be more of a mix as maybe only Moniak will skip. GCL was possibly the most talented rookie level franchise in baseball though.

Lakewood and Clearwater were both also better than average. Unfortunately they did it with depth of prospects. You probably have 3 or more on each team that might have placed in the second 20. Guys like Viza and Garcia and Anderson represent some quality in Clearwater among second tier prospects. Same with the Lakewood arms that just missed.

The lesson here is the team needs more top 100 level prospects. It is a fairly balanced system and will no longer be top heavy when the Reading guys like Quinn and Alfaro (both of whom could easily be in the majors next year) start to graduate. This is why deals for guys like Rupp and Galvis might make sense. They can bring back more top 100 level prospects and they are potentially replaced by better players from within.

I thought he got a $1 million bonus, our largest LA bonus except for Ortiz, and not small for its time.

In draft terms in 2013 $1 million was the slot value for pick 55. And Latin American slots are probably not as efficient money-wise as draft slots. In the draft at pick 55 without going over slot we get guys like Eshelman and Stobbe. Not sure things like a first round pick.

Yes the Encarnacion signing looks bad at this point. But it needs to be compared with picks from a point in the draft where about two-thirds of selections do not make it.

The points are that we need to sign multiple high bonus LA players every year, and it is still a little early to write off Encarnacion. Pointing to him as a failure is a little unfair to our mid-level signings because among the larger group (Tocci, Grullon, Pujols, Arauz, Brito, Gamboa, Ortiz) we seem to be getting a fair amount of prospect value. I just want more of the higher end signings.

[andyb]

Eastern League:
6. Crawford
12. Alfaro
13. Cozens

No Hoskins but this is a very deep league. I guess Crawford will make 2 lists though this is a pretty low ranking for him. Might be a recency effect of some managers liking players in the league over the 2nd half of the year they saw more recently. Crawford must have barely qualified on playing time.

[bigegypt0417]

Eastern League:
6. Crawford
12. Alfaro
13. Cozens

No Hoskins but this is a very deep league. I guess Crawford will make 2 lists though this is a pretty low ranking for him. Might be a recency effect of some managers liking players in the league over the 2nd half of the year they saw more recently. Crawford must have barely qualified on playing time.

Giolito will make 2 as well.

Crawford is going to have to prove himself back to the top of those lists...

Interesting to see cozens above Bradley...

[phillychuck]

Hoskins belongs, even in a deep league. Hope he stays under the radar and motivated by being disrespected. Cozens is low at 13, but his L-R split is genuinely a worry.

[bigegypt0417]

IL

4-Crawford

13-nick Williams

[Austinfan]

Surprised Wiliams made it at all, shows how dubious this lists are, Hoskins is certainly a better prospect than Williams right now (not as talented, but at AA/AAA level, performance matters more, at some point potential becomes a dirty word).

[bigegypt0417]

Surprised Wiliams made it at all, shows how dubious this lists are, Hoskins is certainly a better prospect than Williams right now (not as talented, but at AA/AAA level, performance matters more, at some point potential becomes a dirty word).

BA doesn't go on performance as much as talent. Hoskins is a high floor with a lower ceiling.

Nick Williams made the list based on how BA has always made these lists.

[allentown]

Surprised Wiliams made it at all, shows how dubious this lists are, Hoskins is certainly a better prospect than Williams right now (not as talented, but at AA/AAA level, performance matters more, at some point potential becomes a dirty word).

While I certainly agree that a player needs to convert tools to performance by the time he reaches AA/AAA to still be considered a top prospect, I see a huge difference between a guy who has never put up plus stats and a guy who has repeatedly put up plus stats but has hit a bump with a prolonged slump. Williams has plenty of .800+ stops on his resume. He fell into a really bad slump in Allentown. Whether an established MLB player, like Burrell the year after he signed the big extension, or a hot shot prospect like Williams, I don't think we really understand why players have prolonged, cured only by winter slumps, and because of that I don't think we can predict which slumpers will be cured by winter and which will flame out permanently. There is always a guess offered, such as Burrell pressing to perform up to his salary or Williams pressing to earn a promotion to Philly, but these are nothing but guesses.

The big concern with Williams is his performance against LHP. Even in his off-season at Allentown, he hit RHP for a .796 OPS and showed HR power. He was pretty dismal against LHP and that may relegate him to platoon duty. Although he produced against RHP, he still had quite a few Ks. Throughout, his defense was good. There is a place for him on a future PHillies MLB roster, but the role is uncertain.

This season is certainly waving at least a yellow flag, but I'm not going to severely downgrade his prospect status yet.

[andyb]

AA lists are always much deeper than AAA lists. That is part of the reason for Williams as he is competing against a lesser field. Plus folks here have a higher opinion on Hoskins than most others. The lack of a good defensive profile and being a year older than Cozens are just enough to keep him off this type of list. And he was helped by Reading's park even if he did not have huge home and road split differences. He has some and all that is considered.

Williams has taken a hit though in prospect status. He may not be a lock for next year's top 100 after being top 50 in most rankings last year. He probably still makes it but I am guessing in the 80-100 range this time.

[Squire]

My understanding is that Jake Thompson was eligible but did not make it on merit.

[andyb]

My understanding is that Jake Thompson was eligible but did not make it on merit.

He did get their pitcher of the year award, so at least something. He does seem to be setting into more of a back-end of the rotation projection than a #3.