August 2016 Waiver Wire Rumors and Deals

[nycphils]

To me, the lesson of the deadline is that the Phillies should go out and pay for Aroldis Chapman. Why, when big reliever deals are thought of as stupid?

1. hes in his prime and overpowering

2. The Phillies have no money committed over the next several years and won't have to spend big dollars for another couple years, when Harper, etc. come up.

3. He can be traded along the way, maybe even in the first couple of years for good prospects, even if not equal to the Yankees haul

4. They could certainly use him as a closer and shorten games for the young starters

5. No comp pick

5 years, $70m would get it done. No reason not to.

[California_Dreamin]

julio...I can only respond to your comments in regards to me, and I don't find reasons to distrust Klentak at all, afterall I got to view him up close for several years when he was with the Angels and understood him to be highly respected by an owner [Artie Moreno] who is hard to please.

As for your suggestion that "fans" think he was asking for too much, I never said that, I said Stark said it and he did. Doesn't mean its true, it does mean Stark said it on a Philadelphia radio station about a Phillie player and I reported it on a Phillies blog site. Seems fairly reasonable to me and I saw nothing wrong with posting it since we are now eagerly anticipating some possible action in August. And while you and some others may find Stark as more of an entertainer than a true baseball insider, I felt that not everyone agrees with that assessment and that his comments were worthy of print. No more and no less.

Now I will tell you where I entered into my realm of observation, and not Stark's. The Phils routinely said for months that if there was one position that they had players to move it was relief pitching...Hernandez, Gomez and Neris to name 3 [and I think there is one more but its too early here on the Left Coast and I am not motivated to look right now]. In fact, they stated when they signed the plethora of FA relievers that they did this with the expectation that they would move 1-2 of them for prospects at the deadline.

The Phils, unless I misread them, almost sounded as if this was a primary goal of theirs...move a veteran reliever or two for prospects. Klentak then was asked after the deadline what he had learned most about this deadline trading frenzy and he said that it was how valuable relievers have become and how much they fetch in trade. I applaud his observation and agree with him. Relievers were being moved faster than 1 cent toilet paper at a Walmart closeout store.

Yet the Phils didn't move any of their fungible, yet valuable relievers. Yep, that was my observation and I wrote it. Now I don't know what he was offered and have to believe it wasn't enough. What I did say, and still believe, is that the best GM's find ways to move players that are hard to move, they just do. We constantly marvel at Epstein's ability to move players [and the strength of his team is not a factor, he did in with poor Cub teams and good Cub teams.] Same with Beane, same with Dombrowski, same with Sabean, same with Paul Owens.

I am hopeful that Klentak grows into one of these guys and believe he can. I like him very much and mentioned several times in my post that I was glad he didn't get steamrolled into a deal.

But I saw nothing wrong with sharing the Stark story, felt it was an appropriate thing to post here, and would do it again. And also state my "beliefs" again without fear that as a "fan" I am being viewed as expecting Klentak to fail.

[Philsmania]

I trust Salisbury more than Stark. He said the Marlins asked for too much. Getting angry at our GM for not giving away Hellickson for garbage seems silly.

My impression is that some fans are looking for reasons to be critical/suspicious of Klentak. Maybe this is just a holdover from the prior regime (or regimes), and it's hard to let go of distrust. Thus the assumption that Klentak blew it ("went down with the ship..." !?), or that a "better GM" would have made something happen, or the (what I see as) clutching at straws (e.g., some GMs said the Phils asked for too much!!!). I don't know; I can't say that I understand where it comes from. It's like there was an expectation - a sense of entitlement, almost - that Hellickson would be traded (and for something "good," of course), and since he wasn't, some fans have convinced themselves that there was a real opportunity here, that was missed. Of course, there's not much evidence of that; but fans often seem more comfortable with what they intuit, or imagine "must have been" the case, rather than with accepting that in the absence of evidence, we just don't know, and aren't going to know.

Personally, I give Klentak the benefit of the doubt, unless and until he starts doing stupid things...and not trading Hellickson doesn't qualify as a stupid thing, in my view. There's simply no evidence that any sensible deal was really there.

Further, given the Nola situation, the Phils may have really only wanted to move Hellickson if the return was pretty substantial...and I could understand that. Just a guess, but Matt Klentak may not be much interested in seeing another episode of David Buchanan in red pinstripes. Buchanan's last option year is this year; if he's not on the 25-man roster come April - which he almost certainly will not be - he will become a minor-league free agent. Given that, if I were the GM, Buchanan would be off the 40-man roster this fall (since he'll be off it in April regardless). And Lively isn't ready for the bigs; Morgan's had all of four starts since being optioned to AAA. You just saw Phil Klein. So I could really understand a reluctance to move Hellickson now, for anything less than a clear gain in talent.

This post is somewhat condescending, if you ask me. But putting that aside, Stark has been in this line of work for a long time, knows a lot of prople and talks to a lot of people all the time. You keep saying that all the people who argue that Klentak set an unreasonably high price for his tradeable assets "have no evidence ". Well, why should we have to assume that Stark was conjuring that claim out of thin air? Remember, when Amaro tried trading Hamels at the deadline in 2014 and during the winter of 2014-15, he found no takers because he insisted on getting elite prospects in return. He was roundly criticized for being unreasonable including on this forum. Why should Klentak be immune from that same criticism if he may likewise have been unreasonable (and, in my opinion, he was)?

Look, I have high hopes for Klentak. But, I think he made mistakes at this deadline along the lines of what Stark said. I hope he learns from the experience.

[California_Dreamin]

Amen.

[andyb]

I think part of Klentak's hesitancy to deal is kind of an anti-Hinkie strategy. Now basketball is clearly different and high picks in the draft are far more important, but there is also a need to establish a supportive and competitive team around the kids that are just breaking in. Hellickson and Gomez and Neris are all playing a little above their historic ability it seems also. This means that the offers may not have been that great for them and it made more sense to keep them.

Looking to the future I also think it is fascinating that Hellickson might be the number one most valuable starting pitcher on next year's free agent market. That is not saying much, but it does put the Phillies in a competitive position to retain him for a discount. I assume they offer the QO and he rejects it. If no team wants to overpay then he might actually turn to a 3 year/$40 million deal from the Phillies as opposed to 1/17. He likes it here. He is young and a reasonably good athlete that should age well. This team could also be pretty good in a couple of years. While trades for the Phillies to add top starters are certainly still an option, Hellickson staying here might make sense for both him and the Phillies.

As for prospects they could have received for Gomez and Neris - if they were not that good it might not have been worth it. We have plenty of depth now in the system. We need more high end top 100-level prospects. I am guessing we were not offered that for the relievers. Whether we got an offer for Hellickson like that is a different question. Possibly. But maybe it still made more sense to retain Hellickson. I think there is maybe a 50-50 chance both he and Morton are on next year's team. Charlie Morton - future closer?

[julio]

Why should Klentak be immune from that same criticism if he may likewise have been unreasonable (and, in my opinion, he was)?

I would not argue that Klentak should be immune to criticism - but if I'm to criticize, I want that to be on the basis of real data/evidence. If he makes a dumb trade (for instance, a trade of anything of value for a sore-armed reliever - recall Turk Wendell?), then absolutely, I'll criticize that.

At this point, though, I see no evidence that Klentak was "unreasonable." I cannot assume that a deal of net benefit to the Phillies was available to him - I simply do not know, and I don't see how any other fan can claim to know, either. I'm not willing to pass judgment without data.

[flyers19rw]

Perhaps I have the wrong perception but it seems that with today's front offices, its not usual that one individual pulls the trigger on a trade. Maybe Cashman, Epstein, Sabean or Beane have that level of authority. I'd venture that the Phillies way has been a group approach for the last three seasons-Gillick/Amaro/? and now on to MacPhail/Klentak/? It looks like this has been the way things have operated since Amaro had a leash put on him when he was attempting to sign Tomas as a FA. MacPhail was an excellent GM for years. I doubt that he wouldn't have input and even final sign off on any deal made by the Phillies. The organization set a value on certain players and stuck to their guns on that.
Now with the undisclosed health issues that have arisen around the players traded away by SD (Pomeranz and Rea) and SF (Fox) , the trade market seems to have been a lot murkier than what it looked like at the TDL. Just another reason for being cautious in making moves at the TDL when time creates a huge barrier to sensible actions.

[California_Dreamin]

flyers19rw..I think thats an excellent point. McPhail himself said that he has always been very hands on and I don't doubt for one minute that he had consultations with Klentak on every potential move. One thing worth mentioning about the Phillies, and its especially true given whats been happening with the Padres and a few other teams [trading players with injury issues], the Phils are probably considered very good trade partners as the Hamels and Giles deals delivered to the other teams precisely what they thought they were getting when they made the deals.

This is important and why I stressed that I felt that Texas would feel very comfortable pulling the trigger on a VV deal if the sides could reach agreement on players. In Hamels and Diekman they got exactly what they hoped and expected to get....as did the Phillies.

[Austinfan]

The Phillies are in a different situation than last year at this time, the farm system is rebuilt, the major league team is respectable (70-75 win season, maybe a tad better if they finish strong), there's no urgency to make a deal just to look like you're doing something or to move away from aging veterans and turn the page.

I think they hoped one or two veteran RPs would play well enough to bring something in return, but Hernandez regained his velocity but not his command, Bailey was bleech, Mujita (sic) never regained his form and so on.
I don't think they had any interest trading Neris unless it was a great offer, and I think the league sees Gomez as best as a setup man or 7th inning guy, not a closer and any offers reflected that.

So at that point, if you're talking about trading for Tirado type prospects, well, we now have plenty of them already in the system. And I don't think anyone was offering top 10 prospects for our players.

[zambonir]

Stark reported that the Phillies wanted other teams to beat the draft pick with a Top 5 prospect and he reported that other teams thought the Phillies wanted too much, so there's really only one logical conclusion to draw from that, if you take his reporting seriously.

[California_Dreamin]

Which is that other teams felt that a Top 5 prospect was more than they were willing to give up for Hellickson. It is also worth noting that the Phillies, and justifiably so, have an awful lot of faith in Almaraz and his scouts finding a pretty decent player at the comp round. I agree with this.

It would seem likely that teams like Baltimore, who don't draft as well, might not view that comp pick with the same fervor that the Phils do.

[Austinfan]

Stark reported that the Phillies wanted other teams to beat the draft pick with a Top 5 prospect and he reported that other teams thought the Phillies wanted too much, so there's really only one logical conclusion to draw from that, if you take his reporting seriously.

Kind of like when we traded with the Rangers, the top 3-4 prospects were off the table, we got 3 of their next guys but for an allstar caliber SP on a cap friendly contract. So I'd presume "top five" really means 5-10th depending on the strength of a farm system.

Would you trade one of Kilome, Quinn or Cozens if the Phillies were a 90+ win team vying for a playoff spot and a shot at the world series?

We gave up two top pitching prospects for Freddie Garcia!

It depends on the team and their farm system, if you had eight solid starters and most of a pitching staff, and a deep farm system you might be more willing than if you have some holes on your ML team and a thin system where trading a top prospect might limit your options next season.

[zambonir]

From Joe Sheehan's subscription newsletter. Bolding mine.

joesheehan.com/

*the Phillies can be confident that they'll get that supplemental #1 and the draft budget attached to it, as Hellickson goes off to his next employer.

As you look at the Phillies' roster, though, you see that they didn't have all that much else to move. Jeanmar Gomez racked up saves this year, but in a real bullpen he's a #3 right-hander at best.*

[Purduke]

Which is that other teams felt that a Top 5 prospect was more than they were willing to give up for Hellickson. It is also worth noting that the Phillies, and justifiably so, have an awful lot of faith in Almaraz and his scouts finding a pretty decent player at the comp round. I agree with this.

It would seem likely that teams like Baltimore, who don't draft as well, might not view that comp pick with the same fervor that the Phils do.

Ditto on this. The comp pick is the primary difference in this process this year vs a normal trade. Easily establishes an absolute floor that the Phils should accept. And to me that pretty easily turns into a Top 5 pick in many organizations. Look at Baltimore's Top 20\30 in BA\MLB. Is there anyone below 5 that they are able to trade whom you would prefer more than a 1.30 slot next year, knowing full well the kid was two years closed to making the protected 40 list? I didn't see anyone. And yes maybe the Phils place a little more vale into early picks than some other clubs would.

Last thought (from someone who has separately questioned why Klentak was getting such an intense honeymoon on this forum), if four or five teams are interested in trading for a player, by definition you better be asking for a package that causes 4 of the GMs to think you were asking for too much in return. So a journalist who somehow offers that as documentation that the "other GM widely held the same belief" is a journalist and not an engineer for a reason.

[tom81]

Anyone else notice that Howard's ops post AS game is 1.238? SSS but 4 HR and 3 2B in 32 AB's. Some team may be tempted.

[Slinging_Southpaw]

Anyone else notice that Howard's ops post AS game is 1.238? SSS but 4 HR and 3 2B in 32 AB's. Some team may be tempted.

I've been afraid to mention this, still holding out on the dream that some other team may think, we can use this guy in a playoff run.

Houston?

[Dell]

Sadly I don't think there's going to be a taker for Howard.

[VoteForKalas]

Anyone else notice that Howard's ops post AS game is 1.238? SSS but 4 HR and 3 2B in 32 AB's. Some team may be tempted.

I think, like you said, it is a small sample fluke, but not playing every day likely does help his body recover better. The issue is a contender will likely want an everyday DH and I just do not think Howard's body & skills are up to that load any more. Plus every team knows they can sign him in the off-season if they really want him without giving anything up to the Phils. Howard is not a difference maker for a contender this season IMO. He likely is not next year either, but if he has an effective off-season of training & realizes he will need to change his approach at the plate to keep playing, one never knows.

[zambonir]

Howard told the press he wants to play next year, but it still feels like both sides are content to finish out the year together. It's ironic, really, if he had pubicly said he wished the team would release him or move him to the AL, it would be hard to blame him, and a lot of us would be happy to hear it, but it would end up being a media soap opera.

My guess is he might make a roster out of ST next year, but doesn't last the season, he won't be good enough to avoid being replaced by a call-up, trade upgrade or just somebody more versatile. I'm skeptical that he'd be willing to sign with any team, too (i.e. he'll want a Florida spring training club and prefer the East or Midwest in general).

[EastFallowfield]

Well, Howard has seemed to hit better when he stopped facing lefties.