2025 Wild Card Round

[zambonir]

Tigers up on Cleveland. NL action about to start.

[EastFallowfield]

Cleveland gets the tying run on 3rd with none out in the 9th and fails to score and are down 1-0.

(Fans of probably almost every other MLB team is typing up "and the Guardians pull a (team name) and can't get a runner home from 3rd with no outs).

Should-of-kept Nick Pivetta the Game 1 starter for the Padres.

[BaseballCat]

Took a few years for Nick to pull it together after he was traded. Not sure we would have felt good about the ride, but would we have signed him to an extension.

[zambonir]

Neither Nick nor the Phillies covered themselves in glory when he was here. The change of scenery was needed, Phillies just got the wrong players for him. But they always believed in his stuff.

[Philsmania]

It didn't help that Pivetta had four different pitching coaches with four philosophies during his four seasons here--McClure in 2017, Kranitz in 2018, Young in 2019 and Price in 2020. Plus, it seemed like there were some other things with Pivetta beyond his performance that tired the Phillies of him. Kranitz was the only pitching coach he seemed to (sort of) mesh with here. Nola and Eflin perservered through all of the revolving door of pitching coaches. Pivetta and Velasquez (whose career arc with the Phillies coincided with Pivetta's) didn't. Yeah, the change of scenery helped him. Even so, from 2021-24, he was a guy who had his really good moments or stretches--moments or stretches he didn't have with the Phillies--but then for stretches looked like the same pitcher the Phillies had. This year he finally had a great season and should get some Cy Young votes. For one year, at least, he was worth the second round draft pick he cost the Padres. He's signed with the Padres through next season and potentially through 2028 but he has opt outs after 2027 and 2028. Odd up and down salary structure--he gets paid $1.75 million this year, $19.750 next season, $14.750 million in 2027 if he doesn't opt out and then $18.750 million in 2028 if he doesn't opt out.

Generally speaking, I don't lose sleep over guys who get good multiple years and multiple organizations after the Phillies trade or release them. My personal Marlon Byrd Rule.

[mdougherty12]

It's not going so well for Cincinnati in game 1, down 8-0 in the 6th inning and getting 1-hit by Blake Snell.

[zambonir]

We opened as slight World Series champion favorites, will that still be true if LA wins tonight?

[EastFallowfield]

Why would it change? Dodgers were supposed to beat the Reds, doing it shouldn't change anything

[kmc1019]

Looking ahead a bit presumptively (regarding the Dodgers)...........Blake Snell has been a buzzsaw for a long stretch here, including a dominant shutout against the Phillies. Yamamoto has been even better over the past month. We are going to need to break their streaks.

[zambonir]

Because not having the bye is an inherent obstacle, but won't be once they're out of the round (especially if they sweep which also changes their rotation). Plus lines change all the time based on gambling action and perception.

Had the Reds won last night Phillies odds might have changed too (given the six has won in the NL every year), and probably would if Reds advance.

Now that we are actually here I think I can say I wish they'd gotten the 1 seed and avoided LA. Playing the defending champions and an overall juggernaut, even after a down season, in a short series, is a tough draw. I'm not so sure Phillies will be favored in it either (though if they were it will only be because of home field).

[DurhamBull]

For no statistical reason, I feel good about the Phils' chances vs. the Dodgers. I feel like the ghost of Matt Stairs' HR (and Shane Victorino's!), Brett Myers going 3-for-3, etc. are still on the field helping the Phillies.

Ohtani, Betts, and Freeman are so good that I don't see how a team could lose any games at all even if those were the only three players on the field, but somehow the Dodgers are mortal.

[EastFallowfield]

Actually I think the Phils have done better as underdogs in this recent playoff stretch, so maybe LA becoming the 'favorite' would be good!

[Philsmania]

Red Sox halted what had been an eight game Yankee win streak.

Reds made it a little less of a laugher late.

[EastFallowfield]

But that means finishing the regular season strong with momentum may not mean anything!

[zambonir]

Maybe they should borrow Kelce's mask.

[Philsmania]

Guardians win 6-1 and force a winner-take-all Game 3. Padres up 3-0 on Cubs through 6 and would likewise force a winner-take-all.

[VoteForKalas]

Padres shut the door with Miller and Suarez, Game 3 set

[EastFallowfield]

In the very short history of this round (2022-2024) there were only 2 series that went to 3 games.

Both involved the Mets, losing to the Padres in 2022 and beating the Brewers last year. All the others were sweeps. Game 1 winners are perfect in this round so far.

So today we've passed that number in this round, and will double it if the Reds win tonight.

[andyb]

In the very short history of this round (2022-2024) there were only 2 series that went to 3 games.

Which combined with all the lower seed teams winning in the past was really just a small sample size factor.

Assume this whole thing settles over time into the higher seed winning 55%-60% of the time with close to half the series going to 3 games.

[Philsmania]

Yankees also pushed things to Gsme 3.

Reds up 2-0 on Dodgers esrly.