2025 Trade Deadline Discussion

[Dirk41]

Fully expect Helsly to be a Phillie next year either through trade or free agency. Some decent closers can be simply signed this off-season. How much could that play into what they do this week??

[bigegypt0417]

Helsey would be the picture in the dictionary to highlight regression...

His numbers scream he's the perfect fit for the phillies...two years too late.

[zambonir]

That could be a small fringe benefit in terms of getting the inside track to re-signing one of them too.

But I'm not convinced this season has done anything to change the Phillies' bullpen philosophy. If anything, it validates it. They have mostly been a first place team, losing Alvarado has hurt far more than whiffing on Romano, and Hoffman could have been an even bigger whiff [I don't think he's been as bad as his ERA, but he's as variable/volatile as any of 'em, with two unknown years to go].

And it really doesn't seem to matter whether you think you've checked off all the boxes in the off-season or not, either way you need another arm, an upgrade or a starter conversion. In '22 it was Robertson and Eflin. In '23 it was Lorenzen [oops] and Kerkering. Last year Estevez and Banks. Again, I don't think they look at that and think, we have to do it differently, but rather, that's just the way to do it compared to giving out a big multi-year deal to a reliever, which might fail in and of itself or will just be wasted money if you don't make a long playoff run for other reasons.

[flyers19rw]

I doubt it. Jesus doesn’t do so well pitching out of the stretch.

[zambonir]

But he has the ability to strike out the side in any relief inning. And so long as he doesn't walk or allow a hit to the first guy he faces, he can also get hooked after three batters in a bad relief outing, there wouldn't be any forgetting to have someone warm up.

It would probably be good to see how he takes to the role if that's what it's going to be in October. Hard to see him beating out Suarez for Game 3 start and equally hard to see Nola in relief. But they might just go six-man for a month and then start thinking about in mid-September.

[andyb]

I doubt it. Jesus doesn’t do so well pitching out of the stretch.

Probably a correctable problem and he would be starting innings mostly so I am not worried about it. Being fresh out of the bullpen could also help He has a .665 OPS against in his first inning this year. And remember starters face the opposition's best 3 hitters in the first inning so a 665 OPS against is pretty good.

The larger point is innings. He is at 121 now. His career high is 178 but that was done only once and was his only season over 100. He'll be close to 140 after 3 more starts when Nola is projected to be back in mid August. Having him and maybe Painter supplementing the bullpen in September helps manages both of their inning limits and might just give the team 2 relievers as good as any expensive acquisition they could make in the next 2 days.

[dicemen99]

I doubt it. Jesus doesn’t do so well pitching out of the stretch.

Luzardo is going to the bullpen. Zolecki asked him about his off day routines between the last two starts and he told him he pitched exclusively from the stretch and made a small foot adjustment.

We are going to see him there.

[zambonir]

Phillies Could Consider Move To Bullpen For Jesus Luzardo

Of course there is a long way to go before we know what the October roles [and needs] will be. And it's still more likely Nola just replaces Walker in the short run.

In 2025, Walker has been a starter, a long reliever and then a starter again. It has been hard at times. He said he is ready to rejoin the bullpen upon Nola’s return to the rotation.

Phillies will roll with Taijuan Walker for now, but rotation decisions are on...

[dicemen99]

On another note, Zolecki, Salisbury and Amaro discussed the Phillies high interest in Suarez and having him as part of a Suarez/Bohm/Harper/Schwarber 1st/3rd/LF/DH/off day combination.

Pretty sure that someone (cough, cough, cough) brought up this exact scenario a few weeks ago - after which it was repeatedly dismissed or argued against. Not that I'm an "I told you so guy."

[andyb]

Let's make an expensive deal so one of our better offensive players can sit once a day?? I'd so much rather just replace Kepler with Crawford if it comes to that.

[zambonir]

Still not sure it's the greatest idea, nor that likely.

If they are actually the high bidder on Suarez it's probably better to just get something for Bohm to replenish the farm, because they will have given up a lot for a rental, as well as whatever they give up for a reliever. And also cut Kepler and call up Crawford. Much simpler than giving the team even worse defense at every position [including 1B] and putting both Schwarber's legs and Harper's upper body at greater risk.

But of course it's possible. And we know they are considering it because Thomson already said he'd gladly move Schwarber to LF for two months.

And yeah, Bohm is also the only guy you want not being in the line-up of that group.

[andyb]

I don't think Thomson would gladly play Schwarber in LF every day also. Big difference between a manager saying he'll maneuver his roster to match the team that DD gives him and him actually thinking Schwarber playing defense every day is a good idea.

A Suarez move probably shuffles Bohm elsewhere. All complicated by Bohm's injury of course.

[dicemen99]

Let's make an expensive deal so one of our better offensive players can sit once a day?? I'd so much rather just replace Kepler with Crawford if it comes to that.

I'm not sure why that deal requires our better offensive players to sit once a day. Bohm may sit occasionally, but likely not much, and there certainly could be a case for giving Nick an occasional day off if this happens. I wouldn't consider either of them in the same stratosphere as Schwarber, Harper, Suarez, or even Turner.

[andyb]

But we actually don't lose much WAR when we put better defensive players like Sosa in the lineup. And Crawford would give us that option in the OF too potentially. The negative of Schwarber defensively is probably almost as great as the positive of Suarez over Bohm/Kemp offensively. A Suarez move without a corresponding Bohm move really justs wastes resources for little overall gain. I'd buy Harper in the OF more regularly than Schwarber but not sure that is a good idea either.

[dicemen99]

I agree that:

1) You don't give up the farm for Suarez as a rental. But tomorrow they will be moving him, and what the price is today is likely to be much different than tomorrow.
2) Yes, moving on from Bohm eventually is always been in the equation. If they can do it now in a deal, great, that will likely help recoup some of the losses we will incur acquiring Suarez and/or a reliever. But they can do it in the offseason as well, as you have pointed out before.

I don't agree with you or Andy that defense is going to play a large part in the Phillies decision making. This has been proven out year after year with the Phillies - and with much of the rest of the league. The fact of the matter is that the defensive WAR or DRS stats that you guys love are still pretty volatile and much less standardized than their offensive counterparts. And I would opine that the Phillies pitching situation makes it much more likely to favor offense over defense in this situation. Having a rotation that includes Wheeler, Sanchez, even Nola makes the "hidden stats" like increased pitches thrown, range, etc. much more palatable to a team like the Phillies.

[dicemen99]

But we actually don't lose much WAR when we put better defensive players like Sosa in the lineup. And Crawford would give us that option in the OF too potentially. The negative of Schwarber defensively is probably almost as great as the positive of Suarez over Bohm/Kemp offensively. A Suarez move without a corresponding Bohm move really justs wastes resources for little overall gain. I'd buy Harper in the OF more regularly than Schwarber but not sure that is a good idea either.

Harper was quoted the other day that he would move back to the OF immediately if it helped the team. It was discussed in the context of moving back to the OF if the Phils were to acquire Alonzo in the offseason, which Harper has heartily endorsed.

I would not bet against Bryce going back to the OF and being more than serviceable. He transitioned to 1st with a minimal ramp-up and was immediately serviceable. His sprint speed is still MLB average. He is a great athlete.

[andyb]

It is admirable that Bryce has said he would move to the OF. He has always been a good team player. He also has the tools to be OK there still. I am just worrying that just when we get him healthy we give him a big change. Is that a good idea?

One needs to read between the lines on quotes. Thomson is just not going to tell the press that playing Schwarber in the OF might let in as many runs as Suarez could create. He is going to give you "manager speak" about all the positives of such a move and never really talk about the minuses. Moving Bryce has more merit than moving Schwarber. Still not sure it is a good idea though.

Heck, I have warmed to Kemp also as a replacement for Bohm. Below average defense paired with decent offense (more power with Kemp but less OBP than Bohm). Suarez for the rest of the year. Bohm for prospects. Prospects for Suarez and a reliever. And Kemp at 3B next year. That is an actual plan I could buy into.

[dicemen99]

I think it's a great idea.

Moving Bryce back to the outfield (maybe 75% of the time) for less than a third of a season plus postseason in an attempt to win a WS with your top four of Turner, Schwarber, Bryce and Suarez. Not to mention deepening the lineup offensively (now you are batting Bohm/Castellanos/Other and Realmuto 5, 6, and 7.

Then in the offseason you have a lot of options. You are going to let somebody walk so it's no sure thing that Bryce is back in the OF permanently.

[zambonir]

I agree the Phillies don't care about defense, and that we have pitchers who strike guys out or get weak contact. Though not so much in the pen [yet]. But there's really no reason to do this in a complicated inelegant way when it can be done simply. One move that makes our offense better and our defense worse [Suarez is actually worse than Bohm, and older] is fine. Four moves that make LF, 3B and 1B worse while also leaving Marsh where he's worse just isn't necessary.

Harper was already becoming a subpar OF before the injury, though of course he was better than the guy who plays there now.

Suarez at 3B, Marsh/Kemp in LF, Crawford in CF, Bohm gone is fine by me. They could even consider keeping Kepler off the bench, though he wouldn't like that [and Nick wouldn't either] and they'd have to option Rojas. Or they might just get Suarez and leave the OF exactly as it is.

[andyb]

Meanwhile, Angels are tepid buyers rather than sellers. Tepid because the Nats relievers are really not that great.

Angels add relievers Andrew Chafin, Luis Garcia from Nats in hopes of playoff...