2025 Trade Deadline Discussion

[Philsmania]

The silence this deadline season--not just here in Philadelphia but everywhere--has been deafening.

[allentown]

Deadline help is worth only so much and if the sellers are greedy, potential buyers will sit back.

[BostonRoss]

All of those numbers you cited are much better than Kepler's. And Kwan's career OPS+ is 114; so this year is no aberration. Plus, I would argue that defensive value is important.

I am not sure there will be a time when the Phillies come down to a choice between Kwan and Robert. But Kwan is much better defensively than Robert. And Robert's value is on the short side of the platoon; his OPS against RHP is less than Rojas's.

[saycheese]

I don't think that is the deal. Really doubt we give up two top 50 prospects for a few years of Kwan control.

Its most likely would include Marsh as he replaces Kwan (not as good as but at least can play LF for them) has three years of control and has more value than any of us give him credit for.

Probably Abel as the headline prospect and then a flyer type guy like a McGowen, McFarlane type.

Look at what the Astros got for Tucker, Tucker is a better player than Kwan. They got Smith who was ranked as the 73rd prospect in baseball.

[fish]

Seranthony to the blue jays.

[zambonir]

Defensive value is important but Kepler and Marsh both bring it too. Marsh just doesn't bring as much in CF. Kepler's DWAR was actually higher than Kwan's every season before this one. Marsh's was a lot higher. I'm not saying Kwan isn't better but the acquisition cost of him has to be worth both the trade price and what you lose from or don't also add to the roster. If that's Kepler, not much. But if it's keeping Marsh in CF and also not adding a better RHB, it is. IMO.

I actually think Robert might make the most sense, if the Phillies are actually willing to platoon a $15 million deadline trade acquistion if he doesn't bounce back from the change of scenery. But that still begs the question of where/with which player. Is it Marsh and Kemp in LF and Crawford and Robert in CF? Or do they just keep it the way it is except Robert plays LF & CF instead of Kemp or Rojas.

What the Phillies really need is for Marsh and Bohm and Stott to be better, plus a RH power bat. Slighty upgrading any of them doesn't put this team over the top this year. Maybe Kwan is a guy the Philliies get in December.

[andyb]

I think the Phillies see Kwan as a full time player rather than a platoon player. He has significant splits this year though but confusingly had reverse splits last year. If he is more playable than Marsh or Kepler against LHP we do get defensive improvement compared to Kemp or Wilson or Schwarber who might be in LF sometimes.

But in general, the difference between Marsh and Kwan is less than it appears and to me not worth huge prospect price. Moving on from Kepler is more of a power question too. If only Suarez was a LF. I really don't like the Bohm to 1B and Bryce to LF experiment.

[zambonir]

I reckon if they really did that it would be Schwarber to LF since Bryce has never really played there. Thomson said as much yesterday - basically, that it worked in 2022, so why not, especially since he's in much better condition now. Or they'd just dump Bohm.

Hey, if we're being crazy/unrealistic, why not get both Suarez and Kwan, or both Kwan and Robert? In those scenarios you could trade either Marsh or Bohm as part of the chain of deals. And the latter two guys are both controlled, even if Robert seems unappealing at next year's price.

But in the end we'll probably get another Austin Hays.

[andyb]

I doubt they put Schwarber in LF over Harper more than occasionally. Maybe they flip Castellanos but putting Schwarber in the OF might eliminate any offensive gain from Suarez. And Bohm at 1B is not ideal either.

Any series of deals around Suarez probably moves Bohm as well. Just as any Kwan deal probably moves Marsh. We would need to move those players to get the bullpen piece we want potentially as well.

[zambonir]

Well, let's face it, they're probably not going to do it period - get Suarez or move Harper. But Thomson said he'd be comfortable playing Schwarber in LF for two months [Schwarber also said no one has raised this possibility, of course].

I feel like Abel should be enough to get the bullpen piece if he's not in the deal for a hitter. We'll see if the market is really overvaluing even rentals. Seranthony didn't cost much, even if he's not a Closer.

Gelb's story today said Miller is probably the guy who goes in a bigger deal.

[schillingfan]

My contribution to this discussion is simple. Please replace warning track Kepler with anyone. I’m fine with bringing up Crawford and putting Marsh in center.

[LoneStarPhan]

Tomorrow should be the day things happen. Or not.

[zambonir]

Probably 60-75% of it will be Thursday, and in the last couple of hours for the biggest names.

[BostonRoss]

The Giants are fading. Maybe they'll trade us Rafael Devers and we can put him in, I don't know, left field.

[jimbomill]

Gelb's story today said Miller is probably the guy who goes in a bigger deal.

From what I've seen, I think the highest/best prospect traded so far was a #10 team prospect. If we're trading a Top 3 guy, we better get someone really helpful.

[Docs]

There is a high demand for high-leverage relief pitchers and a low supply, which will set the price for them high. Phillies could use more than one.

[Philsmania]

There is a high demand for high-leverage relief pitchers and a low supply, which will set the price for them high. Phillies could use more than one.

That's what I am thinking. There's just not a lot of available quality at this Deadline season and what little is available probably isn't worth the price of a top prospect.

[andyb]

ESPN morning update still says the Phillies are focusing on a high end reliever. Helsley the best rental. Bednar to me the best controllable fit. Also in the mix for Robert who should be seen as an expensive rental as his options are unlikely to be picked up.

Last-minute MLB trade deadline intel: What Buster Olney and Jeff Passan are...

[zambonir]

Well, the market hadn't really revved up, but sure. It's rare for any of a team's Top 5 guys to go, unless it's for a superstar or non-rental. Even Machado only merited one out of the five, with a couple of low Top 30 [albeit from what was probably a really good system]. We got a couple for Hamels but they weren't the top choices, and he was long-controlled.

For Kwan, or someone like that we haven't thought of, Miller is logical, especially if teams just aren't sold on Crawford. Supposedly both of them were going to be traded for Crochet last year but the Sox held out for Painter.

I don't think Miller has to go for a reliever. And I certainly don't think they need more than one. They've got Robertson, Alvardo and also Lazar rising into leverage. And Romano probably isn't going anywhere. The way relievers are it is just as possible he strings together a couple of good months as a trade acquistion shows up and has two bad ones.

The problem with Robert is apparently that the White Sox aren't valuing him as a rental, and they can even "afford" [since their payroll is so low] to pick up his option and hope he's worth more next year, though that seems risky given what has caused him to be devalued in the first place. That said, those options are not nothing. If the Phillies get him and like him, makes it easier to trade Castellanos even if they still have pick up $.

[andyb]

Luzardo to the bullpen seems very much in play after Nola returns. Among other things it will help manage his innings as well as fill the Alvarado postseason hole.