2018-19 Phillies Off-Season News/Notes/Discussion

[zambonir]

Does he deserve the money of someone who was great his entire career before free agency? No. But he has the advantages of being younger than the typical free agent and, of course, left-handed.

An important point. I think it's safe to say the Phillies aren't going to give a high $ five-year deal to a 31-32 year-old. Gillick (three-year deals only) and McPhail (grow the arms) still big influences. But they'll consider it with Corbin (but so will the Yankees). And really Happ on a short deal might be a good alternative to Corbin or Keuchel on a long one.

A trade might be more efficient though. Also, one part of being a good analytics team - not that we know if the Phillies are one yet - is finding undervalued players your staff can improve. We've heard Verlander and Britton both talk about how their new teams gave them a lot of new info and approaches to pitch selection and location. Morton too (who also credited the Phillies' much-maligned former pitching coach for adjustments that helped his velocity).

[frylock]

Been awhile since I've been on the forum, and I know this post was awhile ago, but it's sadly probably true and what I'm resigning myself to. As an Os fan as well, I want Machado (at 3B -- though realistically if he comes it'd be to play SS), and heck, I'd also like Harper as a knee-jerk reaction to being so sick of watching a bad offense. But realistically, that's probably not the wisest use of $.

I've had the feeling we're going to whiff on both Machado and Harper.

We'll see how it shakes out.

[fish]

I've had the feeling we're going to whiff on both Machado and Harper.

Yyyyyyupp. Whiff on Machado if the Yanks want him. I think the hope for Harper is good ole' fashion Scott Boras super high bid wins.

[zambonir]

None of us know anything. If you think there's no way the Phillies can get Machado or win a bidding war for him you are basically a Negadelphia Phillies phan (with good reason). And if you think this new front office can surely get it done you're basically a pollyanna (but I sure hope that when this front office planned out the last three years based on being able to get him - or Harper - they knew what they were doing).

I know we spent several months lamenting the Phillies' failure to sign a pitcher last year, and we never thought they'd get Arrieta in a million years until they did. Different players and market conditions this year, but we shall see.

Definitely pulling for the Brewers, again, none of us know anything but my gut feeling is "I still have something to prove in LA" is not as compelling if it's an NLCS exit. Plus, "I want to win another championship here" would also be compelling. Hopefully he really does want to stay closer to home.

[David_Criss]

It is worth noting, even in a small sample size, that Machado's batting average and OBP both dropped 50 points when going to the NL....I think he ends up with the Yankees. He wants to be a Yankee, he wants to play SS, the Yankees need a SS, so I expect the Phillies to be used to get mega bucks from the Bronx.

With Harper, I see it coming down to the Cubs and Phillies.

What about trading for Arenado with an extension? He is a much better fielder at 3B than Machado and wouldn't demand he play SS when it isn't his best position. It would cost dearly. Hernandez would be a small part of the package, but Arenado manning third is my goal, even over Macahdo at SS and leaving Franco/Santana at 3B.

[andyb]

What about trading for Arenado with an extension? He is a much better fielder at 3B than Machado and wouldn't demand he play SS when it isn't his best position.

The problem with trading for someone and then signing an extension is that you do not get any sort of discount for that extension and could conceivably pay a premium. So the Phillies give up Franco and a prospect package AND get to pay high market value for the player. How is that better than just signing Machado for no compensation?

Plus, Machado is not worse at 3B than Arenado. They are both very good (if not quite as athletic as they both were at age 23). Machado is not as good at SS as he would be at 3B, but being able to play SS is a plus. He does not HAVE to do it and would certainly be moved off of SS if he was consistently well below average there.

I like Arenado, but why pay more for a player a year older and not necessarily better. Arenado home/road OPS: 1105/772.

[flyers19rw]

The Harper to the Cubs idea might have suffered a blow last week. Boras/Bryant rejected a ten year, $200M offer. With the other long term contracts that the Cubs have on their books it's probably going to be an either or but not both situation for them with Bryant and Harper. My call is that the Cubs are out with Harper. Bryant is a popular guy with Cubs fans being a home grown player and also quite good.

[EDmuch]

I agree that Cubs fans would probably prefer Bryant over Harper because of the home grown factor. I am tending to agree that it is looking for and more like Harper for us.

[Philsmania]

Yeah, that stars seem to be aligning such that if we sign either of them, we sign Harper.

[Austinfan]

Bryant > Harper. Bryant is far more consistent and plays a premium position, as well as the flexibility to play OF.
10 year $200M including two arb years where he'd make $10+M is really 8 years, $180M at age 28.
No wonder Boras said no.

Cubs have to sign Bryant, Harper wouldn't be a good consolation prize.

[EDmuch]

Even if we sign Harper, which I think will happen, we will still need one more power bat in the lineup and I do not consider Santana a power bat. We need to have a respectable 3-4-5 in the batting order and Hoskins and Harper are only two of that threesome. That is why I look at Peralta.

[allentown]

Even if we sign Harper, which I think will happen, we will still need one more power bat in the lineup and I do not consider Santana a power bat. We need to have a respectable 3-4-5 in the batting order and Hoskins and Harper are only two of that threesome. That is why I look at Peralta.

I wouldn't do that, because it ties up two OF positions for multiple seasons into the future, when the majority of our internal young bat prospects are 1B/OF.

[EDmuch]

From what I have seen we have maybe one bat coming into MLB in the next 2-3 years, Haseley. The others are just projections of imagination right now. And I do not think we should be mediocre while we wait for figments of our imagination to materialize. I simply do not believe in the viablility of what we have in the minors. I just do not want to continue running marginal players on to the field while we wait for someone to finally be more than marginal. Put another solid bat in the outfield and you can afford to carry a poor hitting, slick fielding shortstop like Crawford.

[bigegypt0417]

Bryant > Harper. Bryant is far more consistent and plays a premium position, as well as the flexibility to play OF.
10 year $200M including two arb years where he'd make $10+M is really 8 years, $180M at age 28.
No wonder Boras said no.

Cubs have to sign Bryant, Harper wouldn't be a good consolation prize.

Two players who are almost the same age...

Bryants average year is 285/385/515 OPS of 900
Harpers average year is 279/388/512 OPS of 900

Bryant has a WAR of 21.6
Harper has a WAR of 27.4

They are almost the same player

You lost me at the consolation prize part...

[zambonir]

Well, what you're saying, sort of, is that Williams isn't good enough, and Quinn and Altherr aren't either. And I mostly agree with that though they need better defense just as much as offense. So I don't know that they have to sign a full-time, bat-first, starting corner OF (if they get Harper). A platoon type guy or a good defensive OF might round things out.

My guess is Hoskins is still going to play 50 games in LF so a bat who also plays 3B might be another option.

Still prefer Machado greatly. A Hoskins/Crawford/Hernandez/Santana IF is definitely not enough offensively, same if it's Kingery at either position and if Santana isn't the 3B who is? Put Machado in there and then get Peralta (or someone like him) and you're on your way.

[EDmuch]

Machado is clearly the preferred solution since we are so offensive prospect poor in the infield, whereas we do have some long shot possibilities in the outfield (including Trout in 2021). But if the Yankees are in the Machado game I don't think we stand a chance. So if Machado is out of the equation, I would look for two corner power hitting outfielders with probably Quinn in between them for his defense. Then you can use a defensively oriented SS like Crawford. But to be a legit contender, we need 3 power bats.

[EDmuch]

I also think Quinn would be much more valuable if they preach contact and hitting the ball on the ground to him in order to utilize his speed. He is the one guy who should not be getting lectures on loft angle. But I do not know if the FO will be flexible enough to use his greatest asset in the most valuable way.

[andyb]

Fangraphs season recap. Mostly on the bad defense.

Elegy for ’18 – Philadelphia Phillies | FanGraphs Baseball

[phillychuck]

Once a hitter, even one whose ABs have been limited as much as Quinn's have been, reaches the big leagues, he has gone through literally dozens of refinements to build the swing he currently has. Changing that to encourage hitting the ball on the ground isn't trivial. I'm not even sure that it's possible with most players. Rollins couldn't do it his whole career, nor could Victorino. Bowa already had a GB-type swing and just changed it a tiny bit. Quinn is a Rollins-type hitter, good power, average GB/FB ratio, better eye at the plate. I wouldn't waste any time trying to get him to hit more GBs. Bunt, maybe...

And there is always the risk with Quinn that having him sprint full-out to 1B on bunts and GBs increases his already high injury risk. Honestly, just let him be and help him improve the things that are already strengths for him.

[mdougherty12]

Roman Quinn already hits a lot of ground balls, around 50% on his limited MLB ABs, similar to his minor league numbers. Jimmy Rollins was around 40% GB for his career with fluctuations year to year. Quinn certainly doesn't need to alter his approach at this point.