2018-19 Phillies Off-Season News/Notes/Discussion

[zambonir]

"it might have cost Kingery, J.P. Crawford, Adonis Medina, Franklyn Kilome and another minor leaguer to get the deal done."

And that would have been a fair price if it did not include Sixto. I imagine we would have put an OF like Williams in the deal since the Marlins were trading their entire OF, but substitute Williams in for Kingery in the above deal and, given Yelich's favorable contract, I would have easily done that last year.

The Phillies might have entered this thinking as much about Stanton and whether taking his contract would have minimized the prospect cost. An expanded Stanton deal could have also had us throwing in Herrera.

I don't think we (most of us fans I mean) would have eagerly done that deal at the time though. In hindsight, sure, given what Yelich did and what Herrera didn't do and also since shortstop was a black hole.

I think the problem is Williams was not as valuable as Brinson, thus the inclusion of an extra body in Brookover's theory. It's also possible the Marlins were not as eager to deal with us. I agree the rumors were mostly based on the Stanton/Yelich combo

But that's also the difference between being a team that just missed the playoffs last year and already had several thirtysomething stars, and a team like the Phillies. We are where the Brewers were last year (if less successful) and have more money to play with. There will be opportunities.

[allentown]

Kingery, Crawford, Medina, Kilome, Altherr for Yelich. Of course the Phillies would retroactively do that deal in a heartbeat today. Yelich vastly exceeded expectations, while, equally, the value of every player on the Phillies side of the ledger declined.

[zambonir]

Yup. That's also why Franco's going to get traded, I reckon. He's the only player on the roster whose value may be higher than it was a year ago, whereas if they do move on from Cesar or Herrera they're selling low (though Cesar is unlikely to become more valuable because of his age/service time. Dubie, who knows).

I guess you can argue Williams and Alfaro are worth a little more. Hoskins about the same.

[andyb]

Any deal we would have done would likely have had Stanton in it. That is what makes including a Herrera OK even before this year. We would have needed to sweeten the deal a bit with a real OF and Herrera a year ago would have had much more value than a Brinson especially with the favorable contract he signed.

[zambonir]

Which is why the Phillies didn't really miss on Yelich. The Marlins knew they could get better value for him separately and Stanton's NTC was tougher to break than most.

We could do this again for Realmuto though. Still a tough one. Do they have enough to get him? Do you include Alfaro? (Probably so.) Will the Nats get him if we don't?

I'm still semi-interested in Ramos, it's all well and good for him to say he wants to play every day but "every day" but unless he literally means he wants to make 140 starts in the AL it wouldn't be that hard to give him 90 while still giving Alfaro 80. And the Phillies could probably pay him well enough to do a two-year deal with an option. If someone else comes in with a bigger bid for 3-4 guaranteed, that's okay too.

[flyers19rw]

Sorry Z but the opportunity was there for Yelich, Moustakas, Cain possibly Stanton and more. The Phillies had the pieces to make those deals happen but didn't. The Brewers rolled the dice, paid the price and are in the POs while the Phillies are golfing or prepping for next year. Based on the missed opportunities of last off season, I don't have much faith that Klentak can evaluate and obtain the players to push this franchise to the next level. Opportunity only knocks so often. It did last winter and the Phillies didn't answer the call.

[zambonir]

Easy to say now. Opportunity didn't really knock last winter. If anything, coming off a 66-win season, Klentak made this team as good as anyone could have expected. It was only by July that it suddenly looked like the team could have been even better with one or more of the Brewers guys. The Brewers only won four more games compared to last year with all those players.

[tom81]

Yup. That's also why Franco's going to get traded, I reckon. He's the only player on the roster whose value may be higher than it was a year ago, whereas if they do move on from Cesar or Herrera they're selling low (though Cesar is unlikely to become more valuable because of his age/service time. Dubie, who knows).

I guess you can argue Williams and Alfaro are worth a little more. Hoskins about the same.

I think you are leaving off the three players most likely to be traded who all have seen a jump in their value, Velasquez, Pivetta, and Eflin. All three are right handed, hard throwing, young starting pitchers, who exceeded what a lot of people thought they would produce. They all have a somewhat similar pitching profile so I think trading one in a package and then going out and getting a lefty starter makes sense.

[andyb]

I think you are leaving off the three players most likely to be traded who all have seen a jump in their value, Velasquez, Pivetta, and Eflin. All three are right handed, hard throwing, young starting pitchers, who exceeded what a lot of people thought they would produce. They all have a somewhat similar pitching profile so I think trading one in a package and then going out and getting a lefty starter makes sense.

Agree, especially if we want to integrate a LHP into the rotation and think Eickhoff is a nice 6th starter insurance policy. I got lots of pushback midseason when I suggested looking into dealing Eflin when he was in the middle of a good streak. Of the three Eflin misses the fewest bats so in my mind has the lowest ceiling. He had significant trade value however because of his age and the improvement he showed. Sometimes you need to deal players at their highest value (Eflin, Franco) and not at their lowest (Crawford, Herrera). I absolutely love Roman Quinn's game, but if we are not going to start him there is probably another team out there that would that values him highly.

These are all variables to consider. We traded Giles at the right time. Now we have a roster that can't play defense and has a bunch of mismatched parts. Theoretically trades could be used to better balance the roster, not just to discard players no longer in favor. Which is why I keep someone like Altherr who is probably better than his trade value and at worst is a backup OF who plays decent defense.

[EDmuch]

Obtaining Peralta is exactly the kind of move that could really pay off. He would be an unusual addition to the lineup, a guy that can actually hit. A .290 BA with 30+ HR would make a nice compliment to either Machado or Harper since I think we need to add at least two significant bats to upgrade this lineup. Heck if we obtained both Peralta and Harper we might even be able to tolerate Crawford's good fielding .240 BA at short. And send Kingery back to AAA for at least half of 2019. If we had to pick up all of Greineke's salary to do it, go for it. I am sure it would cost us at least one good young OF prospect, either Williams or Haseley or both and couple of young pitchers, (Eflin? Anderson?) I would not want to include both Williams and Haseley but I would if push came to shove. But if we could obtain both Greineke and Peralta in the same deal, and sign Machado or Harper, while still having Franco and Herrera to move for other pieces, we could get a genuine reorganization of the lineup that could make us a playoff competitive team next year. To me it seems imperative to add a couple of power hitting RBI men around Hoskins to create a formidable middle of the order. We could then fill in around them with Hernandez, Herrera, Quinn, Crawford, Alfaro, Santana, etc. So that is what I suggest should be the Phils' primary objective: add 2 power bats around Hoskins. I think there is a good chance we will get either Machado or Harper, But the lineup will still need one more power bat.

[mdougherty12]

David Peralta is a good player, but you would want a right-handed hitter to platoon with him, as he doesn't hit lefties well at all. He's also 31 & will hit free agency after 2020, so he would probably be a relatively short term acquisition.

[EDmuch]

Two years? What a coincidence ! Might that not be just the bridge we need to Mike Trout?

[zambonir]

I think you are leaving off the three players most likely to be traded who all have seen a jump in their value, Velasquez, Pivetta, and Eflin. All three are right handed, hard throwing, young starting pitchers, who exceeded what a lot of people thought they would produce. They all have a somewhat similar pitching profile so I think trading one in a package and then going out and getting a lefty starter makes sense.

Maybe, I'm not sure how much value they really have. I could just as easily see them keeping Eflin as #6 or moving VV to the bullpen finally. Pivetta probably worth the most but also the guy you don't want to trade.

Now, if you can trade for a lefty starter, than yeah, you probably include one of them, and another starter (Eickhoff or AAA). Especially if you're getting a high-paid vet from a team that wants low-paid potential.

But I'm not optimistic about their shot at getting a LHP in FA. Hamels probably not available, Happ too old, they probably won't win a bidding war for Corbin (assuming they win one for Machado or Harper and he gets five years).

A package where they combine Franco or Hernandez with a pitcher to get a pitcher or starting OF would be nice but multi-player all-major leaguer trades seem pretty rare. Seems to me the Royals are the team to watch - I could see Franco and Eflin as a starting point for Duffy and Merrifield. If the Phillies want to move on from Cesar without being 100% committed to Kingery yet Merrifield solves that, and/or he rounds out the OF. Duffy coming off a bad year, including FIP.

[tom81]

I got lots of pushback midseason when I suggested looking into dealing Eflin when he was in the middle of a good streak. Of the three Eflin misses the fewest bats so in my mind has the lowest ceiling.

We agree more than normally andyb on the philosophy of trading one of the 3 starters we just differ on evaluating them Eflin is a work in progress but I believe he has the highest ceiling of the three. He is the youngest of the three and the one who has made the biggest change due to his knee surgery. He is a different type of pitcher than he was when the Phillies acquired him and he is still learning to use his new tools. He is the tallest, 6-6 to Pivetta's 6-5 and Velasquez's 6-3. Last year Eflins velocity on his FB ticked up 1.5 mph to 95.2, Pivetta's up .7 mph to 95.4 and Velasquez's up .4 to 94.6. I expect Eflin to put on another 20 lbs or so this off-season, his FB to tick up close to 96 next year and to lead the three in velocity. Eflin has also shown an uptick in changeup usage which I expect to continue and I expect his command to improve as well. Of the other two I think Pivetta has the next highest ceiling and like Eflin he is still learning to pitch too.

That said I would trade any of the three in the right deal. I think we benefit by bringing in a lefty to the rotation and there are actually quite a few that I would consider. Corbin is at the top of the list (I think Kershaw stays in LA) but also would be interested in Yusei Kikuchi (who we both like) and Hyun-Jin Ryu on a 3 year deal would be interesting. Ryu is an injury risk but with Eickhoff in the mix I think we can take a chance on him.

[zambonir]

Keuchel is also a lefty. tbh if Harper ends up here I bet Keuchel does too. We're the new Boras team.

[tom81]

I forgot about Keuchel, he is on my list now too

[andyb]

That said I would trade any of the three in the right deal

Which of course is the big point. I think this team needs a left-handed starter to give other teams a different look. And if we get that starter we should trade one of the 3 guys that are kind of similar in profile. Plus we are not dealing Nola because of quality and Arrieta because his contract means he has little value.

It is really splitting hairs as to which of the 3 has the highest ceiling. My comments on Eflin were not at all about velocity. His other stuff just moves less than the other two. Eflin certainly made progress with his change and health. I just think Pivetta have another rung of quality too, though their improvement might be from improved command and control since the raw stuff is there.

It is not the worst thing if we did nothing. Starting pitching is a nice strength to have and we do have that (though we should expect some regression from Nola since 10 WAR is just not sustainable from any pitcher). We could also invest in less expensive left-handed long relievers as a strategy. This is guys like Suarez. Maybe we consciously start everybody but Nola with the intent of going through the lineup twice and switching to a left-handed 2-inning reliever. In September when we did lots of this it worked less well because opposing benches are deep. But pre-September few teams are going to swap out a left-handed bat in the 5th inning.

[Austinfan]

I wouldn't touch Corbin, he has a contract anomaly season, but his velocity decline, we saw this with Arrieta, as velocity declines pitchers find it hard to maintain command. Corbin had a good year, was injured, took 3 years to come back, two solid season in a row, but you have to wonder what he has going forward - I don't buy the 4.6 WAR season (BR). An Arrieta like 3 year deal is fine, but nothing more, you're talking a #2/#3 who could fall off at any time.

Just be glad Klentak said no to Darvish, damaged goods at 32 next season.
Arrieta was what I expected, 4.16 FIP in 2017, 4.26 FIP in 2018.
The three young starters are better bets in 2019.
Velasquez 3.75, Pivetta and Eflin 3.80 FIP.

[EDmuch]

I was originally high on Corbin. But now I am not so sure. As AF noted, his stats are inconsistent.

[andyb]

Except Corbin has not been all that inconsistent. He had one year where he gave up a lot of HRs in an environment where the ball carries really well. In 2013 at age 23 he was great. 2014 was injured because of TJ surgery. He came back in 2015 and was pretty good for the half season he was back. He missed one season (2014) but the timing on his return was not especially troubling since he got hurt in Spring Training of 2014 and had the surgery that Spring. Of course he was going to miss the entire year of 2014 and then part of 2015 (who puts someone in the rotation exactly 12 months after surgery?).

The one mediocre year Corbin had was in 2016 though even that year he was not truly awful (FIP of 4.84) and he was playing on a pretty bad AZ team (69-93). He was then very good in 2017 and great in 2018. Does he deserve the money of someone who was great his entire career before free agency? No. But he has the advantages of being younger than the typical free agent and, of course, left-handed. The velocity drop was a mid-season drop as well. It had returned by late August and he threw harder in September. His second half stats (3.01 ERA) were better than his first half stats (3.24).

Every pitcher has plusses and minuses. Corbin probably is not going to get $30 million a year because of the minuses. But at $25 million or so per year he is worth kicking the tires on. Kikuchi as well (for less but the posting fee might make the investment as expensive). The scouts need to do their work. The medical people need to look at his data. But if those check out there is no reason this team should not take a look at him.

Offense and defense are the first two priorities (and a Machado would help both). But left-handed pitching is not far behind and a GM can always rework the roster to get value from the 3 young starters.