2018-19 Phillies Off-Season News/Notes/Discussion

[andyb]

Quinn is already pretty good on ground ball %. 48.9% last year. 51% career in the minors.
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=2&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=26&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=5,d

Interestingly the fast guy who should probably hit more ground balls is Kingery (35.0%). Crawford too though his sample is more limited. And Franco should hit more fly balls.

[zambonir]

Has anybody actually indicated they want to change anything about Roman Quinn? The only thing they probably want to change about him is his availability to play. No way he's the Phillies' starting CF (or any OF position) IMO. In tandem with Herrera or Williams or Hoskins or someone else (obviously not Harper who would play 155 games)? Sure. If they trade Herrera he's not the answer, and not just because of his injury history.

[Austinfan]

Harper has one big season that he's never approached again, that to me is an anomaly you can't bet will re-occur.
Bryant has 4 seasons, three which were remarkably consistent, and the fourth a dropoff primarily due to injury.

Bryant can also play a decent 3B and is as good of an OF. That also makes him more valuable.

[zambonir]

I think it would be more accurate to say Harper had one bad season, and even that was still a better season than everybody on the current Phillies roster besides Hoskins. His WAR may have never been as insanely high as it was that one year but he still has had two four-figure OPS campaigns, and was close to .900 in this past season,which wasn't great one for him. If he was 28 or 30 you'd be worried but at 26 I'll take whatever he's got over the next 3-4 years especially if he ends up in LF.

Of course Bryant is worth more. Also no reason for him to do the Cubs any favors after the service time issue.

Cubs are probably not the competition for Harper in the end, Giants are making noise about wanting him today and Dodgers could be in the mix too, especially if they A) lose this series and B) don't keep Machado.

[bigegypt0417]

Harper has one big season that he's never approached again, that to me is an anomaly you can't bet will re-occur.
Bryant has 4 seasons, three which were remarkably consistent, and the fourth a dropoff primarily due to injury.

Bryant can also play a decent 3B and is as good of an OF. That also makes him more valuable.

No, what in your mind that makes him more valuable is that you just type it. They are very much the same type of player. You discount the off year for Bryant by mentioning injury and don't account for it while discussing harper. his 2017 season would have been a second massive year if not for injury.

319/413/595 with an OPS of 1.008

[allentown]

Bref has Harper with a WAR of only 1.3 for 2018. His 2015 was a big outlier at WAR 10.0. Apart from that year, his top WAR was 4.7 in 2017 and 5.2 in 100 more AB in 2012. Injury has been a bit of a problem -- he's logged only 100-120 games in 3 of his 7 seasons. Average it all out and he has been a +3.9 WAR player on average. Averaged over the past 3 seasons, he has been a 2.5 WAR player. I'd still like to get him if, as I suspect, we miss out on Machado, but he really isn't in the same value ballpark Bryant, who has averaged 5.2 WAR over the past 3 seasons. Machado is only about 3 WAR over the past 3 seasons..

[bigegypt0417]

Harper took a hit for defense this season.

This idea they are not in the same ballpark from a value perspective strikes me as strange.

Their slash lines speak of two very similar players and WAR to me is a flawed statistic at best...I'm more on the side of Bill James when it comes to WAR.

The Next Battle in the War Over WAR

[zambonir]

I would care a lot more about how Harper compares to Bryant if we had a chance to acquire Bryant (but even if we did - or do - that would be an expensive trade).

[allentown]

Maybe managers and coaches do have a measurable impact.

[zambonir]

Heh, important how? This is regarding Fuld removing himself from consideration for the Blue Jays job. Gotta wonder if Gelb knows it already. You don't give up on a shot at managing to just stay on the coaching staff or in the analytics department. Giving him the same job Kapler had in LA seems very plausible.

Matt Gelb (MattGelb)

[tom81]

Interesting story about Manny Machado in today's WSJ. It paints him as a cross between Bobby Abreu's relaxed style of play that annoyed so many Philly phans and Chase Utley's aggressive edge. It would be interesting to know what the GM's take on this is and how he think's he would fit in Philly.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/manny-machados-playoff-antics-anger-the-brewers-1539778348?tesla=y&mod=article

"Far too often, Manny Machado doesn’t play hard. Running out grounders with any semblance of urgency doesn’t interest him, so when he doesn’t feel like sprinting, he chooses not to, ignoring a central tenet that every Little Leaguer learns in kindergarten."

Before that, however, Machado prompted both benches and bullpen to clear because of his role in an incident that left the Brewers fuming. On a grounder to shortstop, Machado clipped Milwaukee first baseman Jesús Aguilar’s ankle as he reached the bag, appearing to kick his leg out on purpose. In the visitor’s clubhouse afterward, Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich called it “a dirty play by a dirty player.”

[EDmuch]

I don't think any of this recent keurfluffle about Manny would have any effect on the Phils' interest in him. (But I hope it makes the Yankees so furious that they want no part of him).

[allentown]

Yeah, I still want Manny. I think nothing is so overblown by ignorant media commentators as not sprinting to first on easy ground outs, by players who aren't fast enough to have a chance to leg it out. Losing Manny for a month due to a pulled hamstring is something to be avoided. Needless sprints to first are a simple way to eliminate part of the danger. I don't know if he is a dirty player or not. I think the Phillies could benefit from a guy who plays with a bit of an edge.

[EastFallowfield]

Couldn't figure out why Aguilar left his leg almost in the middle of the bag. Wonder what Keith Hernandez would say about that?

[David_Criss]

Brewers and others upset that Manny Machado kicked first baseman Jesus Aguilar

His foot was on the edge of the bag. This article shows it from two different angles.

[zambonir]

The Yelich quotes about Machado are pretty amazing. But yes, I hope this scares the big media market teams from getting him or drives down the price. Even though, let's face it, it could go very badly for him in Philly too. Abreu/Utley comparision - maybe throw in Barry Bonds as well - is pretty spot-on. But we also had Jimmy.

And this is nothing new for the Dodgers, who had Utley during the Mets incident. It's like hockey, you love these guys when they are on your team.

[EastFallowfield]

His heel was in the middle of the bag, just seems to me there's a reason most first baseman try to keep their heel on the edge of the bag and then move it away once the ball has hit the glove.

[flyers19rw]

There also were the slides into second base that took out Arcia. One was ruled illegal and an automatic DP while the other was let go by. It's similar to the trash that he pulled on Pedroia last year. If he plays SS, someone is going to get even for this stuff and Machado is going to end up in bleeding LF from a play around the bag. He's too good of a player to be pulling the junk that he does.

[EastFallowfield]

I get that the slides were stupid under the current rules, but the first base deal seemed like Aguilar was being a little stupid as well to set it up.

[Austinfan]

Doubt any of this stuff is enough to reduce the Yankee offer.