It's not about saving money, it's about the "sweet" spot on gambles.
Giving out bonuses and two way contracts for veteran gambles seems to work better over the years than $8-11M one year signings and pickups.
I think partially because of "safety in numbers," if I give out bonuses ($1M to show up) to guys coming off injuries, etc. as ST invites, I only have to hit on 1 in 5 or so to make it worthwhile, but I have to hit on almost every $10M deal to make them worthwhile.
The good side of the one year deals is they're one year, it's only Middleton's money, not mine.
The best FAs signings generally seem to be second tier guys on 3-4 year deals in the $10-15M range.
I think because they don't generate bidding wars, the FA contracts more closely reflect value (no bidder's curse).
And they tend to be more targeted, that is, adding a guy at a position of weakness where you get the most marginal value (i.e., replacing a 0 WAR guy with a 3 WAR guy instead of replacing a 2 WAR guy with a very expensive 5 WAR guy).
These kind of deals seem to be essential to quick turnarounds, because two or three targeted signings can provide 5-6 WAR on the margin at lower cost and less risk than a big money signing.
The problem with the big money signings and why so many flop:
1) most are over 30 with contracts that extend into the mid to late 30s, in the post-PED age there's a high probability of decline after age 32 or so.
2) most go to players "peaking," that is, regression to the mean, independent of age, suggests that performance won't be sustained
3) bidder's curse, acerbated by the need of some franchises to "do something," either for marketing purposes or to assuage a rich owner's ego
The best way to spend your money is to extend your own players at a discount before they hit free agency.
Herrera is a great deal, even if he doesn't improve, he's still going to be a 1-2 WAR player at $6M a year, no downside, huge upside.
I'd extend Galvis at a reasonable cost b/c even if I trade him, having him under control allows me to pay some of his salary and make him a huge bargain for a low budget team. Say 5yr/$50M (1.5 WAR at $7M a WAR), and if you trade him to a poor team, pick up $10M. That's no different than picking up Hellickson's QO and trying to trade him in July.
