Discussion

Austinfan 2017-07-12 15:07:38 UTC #141

Most teams making July trades are focused on this year, i.e., the half year of control has less value than the value to making the playoffs now.
Whereas a team trading for him as a starter (and not a playoff patch) would factor in the cost of an extension (which won't be outrageous given his history).

Philsmania 2017-07-12 15:17:34 UTC #142

Makes me wonder how long he was hurt.

julio 2017-07-12 15:20:13 UTC #143

I'm frankly not sure how relevant this is to Freddy Galvis. For a team to pursue Galvis as a short-term option, they need to: 1) be in the post-season race; and 2) be in dire need of a shortstop who might give them a solid couple of months at the plate.

Looking at Galvis' splits... he has a history of being productive offensively for a month or two, then being bad for a month or two. Back as far as 2015 - he's hot, then he's cold. His overall level of production has been creeping up; but the current .724 OPS may overstate his true current level a bit - he looks to be due for one of his bad months.

One other thing: Galvis has pretty much always been a better hitter from the left side, against RHP. I haven't looked at this, so what follows is just speculation... but I wonder if Galvis' "good" periods vs. "bad" periods correlate with his seeing more RHP vs. LHP in those months. I also wonder if the Phillies relative absence of LH hitting threats (their relatively dangerous power hitters - Altherr, Joseph, Franco, Rupp - are all RH) has resulted in the Phillies seeing fewer LH pitchers than in the past... and if so, if this might result in Galvis having better numbers than he might in a different lineup, where he might see more LH pitching.

andyb 2017-07-12 15:20:51 UTC #144

That is probably true but getting a rental SS for 2 months to have Crawford finish the season in AAA is not the worst strategy if they decide to trade Galvis. There are any number of older veterans they could get like Chase D'Arnaud if they really had to. And in 2018 they could sign a better quality defensive SS backup for Blanco's slot on the team if they were not sure about Crawford.

The timing on trading Galvis would be much more about him having his career age 27 season and taking advantage of that with a team that needs a SS for a year or two. The proximity of Crawford is less of a factor. I am pretty sure the team does not see Galvis as its long term SS and he would be expensive in a reserve role in 2018.

All trades are risky. If the worst consequence of trading Galvis is needing a rental SS for 2018 (where we do not look to contend and assuming we would not resign Galvis after 2018) then the upside of getting a decent prospect for Galvis and Crawford being ready next year might be worth pursuing. This trade deadline should be about turning players that will not play for the next contender into prospects.

flyers19rw 2017-07-12 15:35:58 UTC #145

Like you Atown, I am suspicious of a lot that goes on with the Phillies right now. However regarding Klentak, my heart is disappointed since there are moves that I'd like to see him make, however my head tells me to slow down. No move is better than a bad move. From my administrative experience, it has been born out that the best path to take when coming into a new situation is to sit back and observe what is presently going on with the firm that you have just joined. Lay out your program and get it into a working position. Then see who inside the organization fits and who doesn't.
IMO, Klentak has done just that. He has brought in his team of analytic guys and they have been breaking down who fits and who doesn't. They probably are applying their parameters to players from other organizations as well. It looks as if they did that with their draftees this year which caused some to rise in value while other possibilities fell.
One thing that I can stand on is that Middleton is a savvy business person. I find it difficult to believe that he would bring in people for management positions who did not have the capacity to get a rebuilding job done. MacPhail has had a record of success in this area in the past. He selected Klentak to be the GM because of many factors, one being his skill in analyzing players using stats. This is the process for the Phillies-certain stats matter.
Until shown that this doesn't work, we phans are going to have to trust their efforts. Would I like to see better players on this club? Absolutely. However trading Hellickson, Joseph, Kendrick, Neshek, etc. really are Mickey Mouse moves. Most likely they'll net a return of marginal significance since they're not more than sub average players. For that matter, and I need to remind myself of this more often, neither does the manager and his staff unless they are damaging the health of a player, since these guys aren't going to be here that long. (McClure being an exception since his tutelage is turning out too many broken down pitchers.)
What I want to see is the organization use its biggest hammer to obtain quality players-its money. So far we're waiting on that. If that doesn't happen by next spring, there's a real issue with the organization. Then you may be correct in that it still is the Giles club-merely a form of cheap entertainment and not a competitive enterprise.

tom81 2017-07-12 16:00:47 UTC #146

We also have the option of offering Freddy a QO if he is playing well next year. In the new CBA, teams with payrolls that exceed the luxury tax threshold will surrender second- and fifth-round picks to sign free agents who were given qualifying offers. All other teams will surrender third-round picks.

andyb 2017-07-12 16:20:44 UTC #147

QO is probably around $19 million then. Not sure we risk that in the hope of getting an extra 3rd round pick.

LoneStarPhan 2017-07-12 16:22:23 UTC #148

Probably only do a QO for Galvis if they wanted him back at the QO price. It certainly would not be a surprise if he took a ~$19 million QO for another season.

julio 2017-07-12 17:59:31 UTC #149

This. The idea behind the QO is that its use would be limited to players who are worth the average of the top 125 salaries - and that lesser players at free agency would not be encumbered by the previous compensation rules (loss of draft picks).

I really don't expect clubs - the Phillies or anybody else - to start making Qualifying Offers to journeyman players - Freddy Galvis at $19 million/year? He'd jump at it, IMHO.

tom81 2017-07-12 18:15:32 UTC #150

If he does put in the hypothetical 4 WAR season in 2018 then it certainly makes sense to QO him.

andyb 2017-07-12 19:58:28 UTC #151

Article speculating on what the Nats would offer Chicago for relief pitching:

If that type of deal fell apart and the Nats were interested in Neshek the guy I would try to get from them is Jesus Luzardo. 3rd round pick out of HS last year that could have gone late 1st if he had not undergone TJ surgery. He is just now pitching in GCL and might be the sort of high end LHP prospect the system could really use even if he is far, far away and risky.

zambonir 2017-07-12 20:58:51 UTC #152

If the Phillies want to keep Freddy they should extend him this fall. You give him a nice bump over his 2018 salary (they can afford it) in exchange for him giving up two years of free agency. He likes it here, he'd take a fair offer.

I just doubt that's where they're headed. Projecting Galvis as significantly better than Crawford going forward is just as big a fantasy as projecting JP as an all-star. At worst it's gonna be a wash and you go with the younger cheaper player who has a much higher chance of also being the better player by 2019. Plus you get to trade the other guy.

And if Crawford's not the answer, it won't be hard to find a new shortstop for 2020 who can outperform Freddy that year, even if it's not necessarily a long-term upgrade.

Teams have become much more interested in acquiring controllable players at the deadline. It used to never happen, now it happens pretty regularly. Pence and Hamels (in different directions) in the Phillies' case, and the high value of both was partly due to their contract status. There were several big names traded last year who were also signed for this year.

They are just different markets, is all. A cash-poor team with a need at SS (or even on the bench) might not have the resources or roster space to use Freddy next year. Another team might have a bigger long-term hole (or even be willing to have him in the bench mix next year if they want him badly enough now). Of course, any team that acquires him can also trade him again before he hits free agency.

Conversely, in the off-season, the Phillies may be able to deal him to a team who also extends him immediately.

allentown 2017-07-12 21:13:18 UTC #153

I agree on both counts. If the Phillies want Galvis going forward, then they should extend him now. I think that is the wrong move and Crawford is the proper bet, which to me means that Galvis should be traded now, when team gets to control him for 1-1/3 seasons and gets to bet on the upside of potential growth next season. That likely gives us our best return on Galvis. Galvis is not in decline phase yet. He could be a little better or a little worse than this season, with steady on being the best bet.

zambonir 2017-07-12 21:29:35 UTC #154

This topic is as correct a place as anywhere for this - now that Foxsports.com is 100% video and has laid off all its writers, Ken Rosenthal (who was not laid off, he still works for Fox TV and MLB Network) will be posting his columns on Facebook for a while, starting tonight.

(I would think MLB.com would snap him up given the connection, but they don't typically publish guys who deal so heavily in the rumor mill I guess?)

allentown 2017-07-12 23:04:26 UTC #155

Local media summary of first half:

And trade deadline marching orders for Klentak:

Surprisingly, Phillies attendance is up.

Austinfan 2017-07-12 23:37:13 UTC #156

Meh, we know more than any reporter, which is sad.
Phillies don't HAVE to trade anyone, they don't have cap issues, they're not under win now pressure.
So Klentak can wait for someone to make a good offer this offseason for Joseph, Hernandez, Galvis and even Herrera.
One key to being a GM is patience, you saw that with Hinkie, you see that with Hextall, and with Roseman, that's how they pull off so many good trades. And so far BC seemed to have learned from his mistakes in Toronto.
The market is set primarily by demand, if you have attractive players, if you wait someone will make a good offer.

As far as July, Neshek will move in a week or so, if no one makes a better offer than the one on the table, but why rush?
Kendrick comes down to showing he's healthy, if a team has confidence in his hammie, they'll ante up.
Nava will definitely draw interest, he's a much better LH than RH bat, and LH bats are always in demand.
The RPs? Well, when your bullpen is one of the worst in baseball, everyone not named Neshek is going to have a limited market.

The one thing I'd like to see Klentak do differently this winter is stay away from expensive gambles, either go with the low cost camp invite types or spend for a solid second tier FA on a market deal (because if the need arises, they're a lot more tradeable). Phillies should be attractive to veterans trying to bounce back and want a situation where they can earn PT and get traded in July. But after Morton, Buchholtz, Hellickson and Saunders, and even Kendrick's injuries (otherwise a great move), guys like Nava and Neshek seem to be better gambles.

allentown 2017-07-13 01:07:57 UTC #157

What does the cap have to do with this? The Phillies want to play Hoskins, so they have to trade Joseph. They also will need that 40-man spot this winter. Guys like Neshek, Hellickson, Benoit, Kendrick, Nava won't be Phillies next year, so Klentak needs to get what he can for them. Since he has an offer in hand for Neshek, that should be an easy move. I agree that there is no need to trade Hernandez, Galvis, or Herrera at the deadline, but they may have greatest value then -- it just depends upon what is offered.

Austinfan 2017-07-13 01:53:34 UTC #158

The salary cap simply means Klentak has maximum flexibility, he can't be forced into a hasty move or a bad decision.
The Phillies WANT to play Hoskins, they don't HAVE to play Hoskins to dump a big salary.
So if someone low balls you, you walk away.

LoneStarPhan 2017-07-13 03:33:53 UTC #159

The 40 man roster space is a serious and significant concern for the early off season. It is a reason for making a trade in July rather than waiting for the off season. If players such as Joseph, Rupp, and some others are with the team at the close of the season, they will take up spaces on the 40 man roster and the GM may not be able to work a trade prior to the setting of the roster for the rule 5 draft in November. The alternative to exposing a good prospect to loss might result in one or more of these current players being released. Better to work hard to move some of these players now if they can get a reasonable return.

It may turn out that they cannot get much back for some of these players. It is easy for those of us posting on message boards to make it sound easy to make trades, but in reality, there may be little interest for our players. Still, it is the GM's job to get things done and to get a winning team on the field ASAP. We can argue timing, but as another season of losing continues, again at a rate that beats every other team in baseball, patience may be running out with the phan base. Frankly, I expected better this season but we are seeing what seems like regression. The Phillies need to show improvement. I think it is important that they get some things done this month and in the coming off season. They really need to show serious improvement next season.

zambonir 2017-07-13 05:44:17 UTC #160

Well I guess I was prescient in sharing that link to Rosenthal's facebook.

He's in the rumor business but this is certainly a good one!

The Phils kicked around the concept [of Stanton] internally, sources said. Their only commitment for 2018 is outfielder Odubel Herrera at $3.35 million, giving them the flexibility to acquire virtually any high-priced player they want. But they have not — repeat, not — expressed interest in Stanton, according to high-ranking officials with both clubs.
Yelich? Different story.
The Phillies, according to one source, have been “vocal” about their desire to land Yelich, even expressing an interest to assume “bad money” — say, reliever Junichi Tazawa’s $7 million in 2018, for starters — as part of the deal.