2017 Trade Deadline Rumors/Speculation/Discussion

[andyb]

3 million dollars isn't the bridge too far. Then klentak would have adjusted his budget and spent less on veterans. You kept saying it wasn't money and now it's money.

We are making a substantial profit this year so I don't think budget adjusting is necessary.

Allentown makes a valid point that the team has not utilized all the ways they can use money to add talent, specifically young talent. This means signing veterans to short term deals with the dual goal of trading some for prospects. This means spending the extra $2.8 million internationally when we were the only team that could trade for a large amount and stay short of the penalties since we had the largest pool. It means spending in the over 23 international market when we could. And it means taking a bad contract or two in deals to get better prospects.

We should do all of this, not just some of this.

The $64 million we spent on free agents was the right move. They did not block any real prospects and there was some hope they might help us on the field before being traded for prospects. Neshek and Kendrick will probably work out. The rest will not. One can say our choices were the wrong choices or we just had bad injury luck, but fundamentally the $64 million of spending was the right thing to do.

It was just not the only thing they should have done. We can still probably trade for more international allocations. Let's find a prospect worth spending it on. We did OK in the international period. We just did not max out like some other clubs. Remember only half the teams were playing the game for higher end prospects in the first place.

[bigegypt0417]

3 million dollars isn't the bridge too far. Then klentak would have adjusted his budget and spent less on veterans. You kept saying it wasn't money and now it's money.

We are making a substantial profit this year so I don't think budget adjusting is necessary.

Allentown makes a valid point that the team has not utilized all the ways they can use money to add talent, specifically young talent. This means signing veterans to short term deals with the dual goal of trading some for prospects. This means spending the extra $2.8 million internationally when we were the only team that could trade for a large amount and stay short of the penalties since we had the largest pool. It means spending in the over 23 international market when we could. And it means taking a bad contract or two in deals to get better prospects.

Again...Allentown is making the argument that it could be about the money and that is wrong. I don't normally go as far but to say something as an absolute but this is one of those exceptions. It wasn't money and that is pure fantasy.

If you want to criticize that they don't use that strategy then that works but the idea it's money isn't a reality.

I haven't seen anything in the over 23 market that makes me think we missed the boat.

[bigegypt0417]

You and a lot of other posters seem to have hoped so much that it changed that you've just assumed a change and label any suggestion that this Phillies' approach hasn't actually changed under the new regime as ridiculous. To me, it is very far from ridiculous to suppose that this particular bit of same-old, same-old has carried over intact from the old regime.

That's because every argument you post is something you've created in your mind. If you can tell me a time where we've had this much talent in our system I'd like to hear about it. We aren't throwing away picks to sign bloated veterans. We are seeing a more aggressive stance with kids in the minors and pushing them to see how they do. we are seeing the focus of the players we choose towards tools and not just the term "toolsy"

The international market is not about money and their desire not to spend it. It seems what we have is a philosophy which you can agree or disagree with. One thing I'll say is if you use the influx of talent we've gotten in the last few july's, your only argument is you feel we could have gotten more.

[allentown]

Then you tell me. What is this philosophy which prevents us from bringing in more international talent and spending all that we can spend? It's not a lack of quality scouting.

We've talked a lot about the farm. Depending upon whom you read, we are anywhere top 6 to not quite top 10. Since we are chasing every team in baseball at the MLB level, and as you and others say don't have significant MLB resources to trade, why wouldn't you want to build the farm to #1 in baseball? To me that seems the likeliest way to take our MLB team where we all want it to be. Why wouldn't you want the team to be spending every penny which MLB rules permit? Why wouldn't you push management to do that when they aren't currently doing it?

Our farm is very deep. It lacks first-tier prospects. When did we have more talent than this? In terms of top talent, we certainly had more in the period leading up to 2008, when we established the core of stars and near stars which led to a WC: Hamels, Utley, Rollins, Ruiz, Victorino. We certainly have more 2nd-tier and third-tier prospects today than we did back then.

You say it's all in my head. Most everyone admits that the Phillies fall from grace was the result of neglecting the farm during the golden era: giving up draft picks for middle relievers, not going over slot when we could, not being big international players, RAJ shifting $ from farm to MLB team. He could have traded the prospects needed to acquire Lee and Halladay and Pence without significant damage, had he spent to replenish the farm. He didn't. He talked about draft bonuses being too expensive and bad value. So did Giles before him. We lost Drew, because he cost too much. We effectively dropped out of LA for over a decade, because it cost too much. Giles inherited the best Dominican operation in baseball and trashed it.

[andyb]

I don't think it is about money per se. Ownership is willing to spend money to get better. It just seems like the Phillies are only firing on 6 of the 8 cylinders in the engine. There is a lack of willingness to max out on resources to get prospects. Whether this means they are happy with what they have is hard to know. But they shouldn't be if they skip opportunities to spend money.

I wonder if the new regime has set up too many checks and balances on how to spend money that they import from the business world. Some methods outside of baseball might impede actual baseball decision-making. And non-baseball people may not understand baseball economics well enough.

Here is an example. Ownership might want a cost benefit analysis of each expenditure. Spending an extra $3 million internationally may have a low chance of delivering another major league player. Where baseball economics are different is that the international spending might increase the chance of getting another major league player even if the increase in odds is small (like signing a couple more players who have a 5%-10% chance to make it). What seems like a longshot bet in the business world would be adding talent in the baseball world. Theoretically the team is still making a profit so they should not be budget constrained in this type of move. But it looks bad on a balance sheet to a business person accustomed to profits and losses instead of wins and losses.

So the Phillies new regime may be making it more difficult to spend money in some cases. This is all conjecture of course, but I can't imagine any GM would not want to spend to international limits if they were not budget constrained. And if their scouts can't line up the players to sign, maybe we need better scouts.

[Austinfan]

There's no evidence that they've hesitated to spend money internationally this year.
We don't know now much allocation they traded for, but they spent extra money, signed 4 of BA's top 50, and a slew of other LA players.
As far as over-23 this year, who's available?

Instead of spreading $60M over 6 players, they could have signed Ian Desmond (similar to Kendrick) for 5yr/$70M.
They've traded one of these players, hopefully will deal a couple more, and got what they wanted.
Just because some things didn't work as planned (Saunders, Buchholtz), in general it worked, Nava, Kendrick were much better than Bourjas, et al.
They bought time for Williams to grow up.
Hellickson has eaten innings and allowed them to send Lively and Eflin back to AAA ball.

It was a lost year, but the strategy was sound, try to put a respectable product on the field (for the fans and for young players to develop in a better environment).
May was a disaster, but since then the team is actually playing better than last season. Since mid-June they're close to .500 with a positive run differential.
June 22 - July 27 13-16 130/112 runs scored/runs allowed
If the young starters develop, this team has a legitimate shot at .500 next season

[allentown]

Yes, I agree that the Phillies, since the construction of CBP, have been willing to spend money overall. They've spent a lot at the MLB level. There has always been a determining faction within TPTB which have set the budget for amateur talent at a lower number than baseball rules allow, and have cost the team talent by doing so. Whether it was signing Drew, going over Selig's voluntary quotas, being players in the over-23 international market, going as far above international quota as permitted, signing draftees declared FA -- the Phillies have spent less than they could, while the farm needed help. This isn't an accident. It is a devaluation of the value of amateur prospects. Teams which succeed over the long-term do so by emphasizing the farm. The Phillies view of what is 'appropriate' to spend on amateur talent is inadequate and has generally been so since Ruly Carpenter sold to Bill Giles. It is the single biggest thing which has held the Phillies back.

[David_Criss]

Milwaukee is still kicking the tires on Hellickson and Benoit/Garcia
I can see Tampa having an interest in Hellickson and Rupp. Cleveland should be in on Hellickson and Joseph, so I expect at least one more deal gets done. I cannot see Klentak finishing the season with Hellickson again. He has to get something, even if it is less than what he got for Neshek, which is a real possibility. He can't keep him AGAIN.

Then Nava and Kendrick, if they can stay on the field, find new homes in August clearing room on the 40-man for Hoskins

[Hags]

I agree - Hellickson has to go. Too many arms at AAA that need more experience and longer looks at the MLB level (Leiter, Lively and Eflin IMO).

Nava either needs to go when healthy in August or be a PH only for the rest of the year. I'm fine with him as a bench bat - very professional AB's - but he can't start again this season. Again, we need to play Williams, Altherr and Herrera and sprinkle in some Perkins.

Kendrick needs to go, too, if possible - see above. If not, it's a tough spot. He wants to play everyday and deserves to as a good veteran bat, but he just shouldn't on this team down the stretch.

Benoit should be dealt for anything offered IMO or waived / DFA'd if not claimed in early August. Again, need to get some AAA bullpen arms up here for experience and evaluation.

WHo knows what happens with Joseph!

[EDmuch]

I agree that we should do whatever is necessary to get rid of Benoit as soon as possible.

Otherwise, I remain very upbeat about next year.

[David_Criss]

Joseph should be sold as a DH as there really isn't a market for a 1B right now. Even with the 25 homer potential and being controllable for the next four-years, we keep hearing there is no market for him. Who besides Tampa or Milwaukee might be interested in adding Hellickson? Rupp, as with Joseph, could be traded this Winter. Garcia is also controllable for three-more years, but I don't see much of a market for him, either.

[Austinfan]

Garcia has far more value to the Phillies than the meager return he'd garner in a trade.
He has closer potential if he continues to develop, which would fill a need next year and make him far more valuable as trade bait.

[andyb]

Brewers could probably use a little more bullpen help.....

[David_Criss]

They can have Benoit. I am with Austinfan. Garcia has some value to the team next year. He is barely making above the league minimum right now. I'd hold onto him unless it is a good deal, but I don't see to many teams knocking down the door to tr to get Garcia in their uniform.

[zambonir]

Benoit is not nearly as bad as people seem to think, and the Phillies don't have that many guys knocking on the door in AAA who they will actually want to add to the 40. They should absolutely trade him, but the AAA guys who matter (Therrien, Rios) are gonna get their turn regardless.

[schillingfan]

I agree one hundred percent that the Phillies since Giles have starved their minor leagues and devalued prospects for a lot of reason, mostly related to money. I just don't see how you can point to any evidence that this mindset has carried into the current regime. It just seems unlikely that the Phillies decided not to spend an additional $3 mil in the international draft because they spent $64 mil on free agents. I think they didn't spend more money in International Market and over 23 because they didn't see any value to be had and if they had, they would have spent it. I would hope that the team would spend money believing their was a chance to help the team.

During the Giles regime, they would ask for additional money rather than another player when making a trade. Since the change, they have taken on and eaten worthless salaries like Harrison and sent money with the players for trades. We traded for allocations. We spent into the 5% penalty the past couple of drafts.This would indicate they are placing a higher value on prospects.

There is a point of diminishing returns when it comes to spending the money. It just makes more sense to me that the Phillies quit spending money when they saw little to no return for their expenditures. Nobody has mentioned it, but you also don't want non-prospects who will clog your system so there is not enough playing time to evaluate everyone.

[phillychuck]

Nobody has mentioned it, but you also don't want non-prospects who will clog your system so there is not enough playing time to evaluate everyone.

You, of course, are referring to guys like Jose Gomez, Alejandro Requena, and JD Hammer, right?

[Austinfan]

There are roster limits, 40 man limits, and staff time limits.
Since your focus is on a subset of your minor league players (6 teams x 25/30 players, 180 plus DSL, but maybe half that are even marginal prospects), you want a tight team of development coaches who can focus on consistent messages up and down the system.
So at some point there is diminishing returns to the number of players under control, staff size, etc.

I think one way they may manage is a stricter focus on "up or out," shedding minor league lifers to make room for new prospects.
Conversely, they may avoid signing players they can't project as potential MLs down the road.

[allentown]

I think one way they may manage is a stricter focus on "up or out," shedding minor league lifers to make room for new prospects.

They've done a much better job of this lately. I think in the past, we didn't have enough real prospects and needed to keep guys hanging on just to fill rosters.

In spending more, we wouldn't necessarily add more prospects, but a higher fraction of higher ceiling/floor prospects and fewer chance prospects. Still, we do have room for more prospects, although some might linger in FIL/DSL longer. Looking at the current Reading roster, things are getting more than a tad sparse, which is undoubtedly one reason for the promotions. I think Allentown also getting a bit sparse through injuries and promotions.

[Austinfan]

I'm starting to think part of their philosophy is to challenge the better prospects at the end of the season, which would explain the aggressive promotions the last few weeks, give them a chance to struggle at a higher level, understand what they have to do to improve, and then work on it during the FIL and offseason.