2017 Trade Deadline Rumors/Speculation/Discussion

[bkox]

And another may have gone down. After getting Hit by a pitch in the hand in his last AB, Howie Kendrick gets pinch hit for in his next AB in the 4th inning.

[allentown]

We're snake bit.

[nycphils]

Agree that their mistakes were not multi-year mistakes which is a good thing. But there's nothing against the law from moving the 64 million wasted this year into future years so its not like that money HAD to be spent/wasted this year.

Not sure why anyone assumes they had better options - who wanted to play for this team that was awesome and would be willing to sign a one year deal understanding that they'd have no control over where they ended up by the end of the year?

[Austinfan]

Excuse me, are you saying free agents have options? They don't have to sign with the Phillies if they make them an offer?

[Squire]

To the extent that my point was not obvious enough...the Phillies are the worst team in baseball. If on April 1 you replaced Saunders with Altherr (like we eventually did), you replaced Howie Kendrick with Richie Shaffer or Tyler Goeddel or Cameron Perkins, if you replaced Clay Bucholz with Adam Morgan, if you replaced Joaquin Benoit with Edubray Ramos or Pat Venditte, etc. etc. we would have saved a ton of money and I guarantee would have been no worse than the worst team in baseball. Right?

[Austinfan]

Of course, that's 20/20 hindsight.
In April, they didn't know Altherr could play.
Kendrick was a huge upgrade when healthy.
Buchholtz, like Morgan, was "crap happens."
Ramos or Venditte would be a lot worse than Benoit.

This team is playing well since the Allstar break, and may finish even stronger.
Now the veterans aren't the reason, but they bought time for Williams, et al to mature in AAA ball.
Which was the point of spending that money, to buy time and maybe pick up a few prospects.
Next year, with all the young players ready for prime time, I doubt they're spending money on expensive one year patches.

[Squire]

Under your system of analysis there really is never any way for Klentak to be viewed negatively. He either makes a good decision that works out or you just trot out the "well this is all just 20/20 hindsight" line if it doesn't. I wish I lived in this world where results/outcomes didn't matter.

[Austinfan]

There were no good outcomes this year other than player development.
Were you expecting miracles?

They've missed on a bunch of veterans on one year contracts who filled out the roster for three months.
In a long-term rebuild, what exactly is the issue?
It cost Middleton some money, but made the team respectable enough on paper to sell some tickets until they imploded in May.
But over all, what's the issue?

To me, the most important move was making Matt Stairs the hitting coach, and making his approach the organizational philosophy to hitting.
And we've see the results, they have a much higher pitch per AB rate, and significantly raised the team OBP.

[bkox]

I agree with everything you say Squire. I totally prefer giving the young guys a chance.. but one question. Do we really care about them spending money? I mean is there any evidence that saving the $38M for those 4 players this year means they will spend more on FAs or player development or a better quality liquid bleach to their whites whiter or anything to help the club in the future? Or is it just money saved in Middleton and the others pockets? I want the Phillies to make smart decisions but I also dont want them to get back in the habit of making decisions based in frugality.

[zambonir]

I don't consider all those names Squire said to be "young guys," regardless of what the calendar might say. More like AAAA guys (except for Perkins, and Ramos, who was still on the team forever and will be again), and they tried that last year.

Anyway, they got something for Neshek, it could have just as easily gone the other way, with Neshek not pitching well and Benoit doing what he did last year for a half-season. And they'll get something for Kendrick too. Having five or six of those players, knowing, that only half would work out, was understood.

(Except for Saunders. I'd love to know what they missed there. Health? Age? Or were they just willing to stay in the game even knowing he was a low pair? Sometimes you still win.)

[allentown]

Do we really care about them spending money? I mean is there any evidence that saving the $38M for those 4 players this year means they will spend more on FAs or player development or a better quality liquid bleach to their whites whiter or anything to help the club in the future? Or is it just money saved in Middleton and the others pockets? I want the Phillies to make smart decisions but I also dont want them to get back in the habit of making decisions based in frugality.

I think it matters that they didn't spend more $ both last year and this year internationally. If spending the $64 million on vets was the cause of that, then we should have spent less on vets. I have no idea what promises the partners make among themselves on annual draw from profits. That might well influence whether some money saved from $64 mill could be moved forward. I agree with Squire that if you spend $64 million on vets and don't get close to $64 mill value, then that's a fail. If you expect the vets to lead you to respectability and they don't and then you later do better without the vets, I think that also is an indication of a fail. If the $64 mill returned over $64 mill in increased revenue or if a minimum spend was required to honor an agreement with Comcast, then that's a win, but they still should have spent more internationally the past two seasons.

[bigegypt0417]

Under your system of analysis there really is never any way for Klentak to be viewed negatively. He either makes a good decision that works out or you just trot out the "well this is all just 20/20 hindsight" line if it doesn't. I wish I lived in this world where results/outcomes didn't matter.

I agree with you on AF's outlook and view.

I don't think Klentak has enough moves to really understand what the plan actually is. I'm thinking we'll start to see more of it this off-season when he'll have to start moving guys if he's going to bring up the kids....

[bigegypt0417]

I think it matters that they didn't spend more $ both last year and this year internationally. If spending the $64 million on vets was the cause of that, then we should have spent less on vets.

This sentence is the flaw in your logic...if we did essentially throw away 64 million dollars on veterans than are you really trying to tell me the reason we didn't sign more international players was money?

The answer to the question is no. It cant be anything but no.

"hey owners...I want to spend 64 million on useless vets...cool?"

"go for it"

"Oh yeah...can I have 3 million more for international players?"

"that's crazy! no way"

Sorry...it seems like a ridiculous idea to be true.

[allentown]

Yes, because that wouldn't be the conversation. First, throw away" is your term, not mine. It is not that TPTB decided to throw away money on vets, it's that they made a decision that turned out to be incorrect. And yes, that could have soaked up enough of the budget that there weren't more $ available for amateur signings.

[Austinfan]

Past year spending has been beat to death, and it was primarily the FO preceeding Klentak.
Phillies traded for allocations this year, so where were they going to spend internationally that they didn't?

2017 Team-By-Team International Signing Tracker | BaseballAmerica.com

Phillies signed #12, #25, #41, #42
Toronto signed 5 of the top 50, NYM, NYY, Boston 3 of the top 50

[VoteForKalas]

Unless TPTB strongly believes that the value of vets outweigh the value of prospects and thus spending money accordingly makes sense to them. It certainly was the philosophy of the organization for many years.

With the ownership transition to Middleton and the hiring of MacPhail and Klentak, claims were made all that was changing and a new enlightened era had arrived.

There certainly has been more of a focus on prospects and young talent, but also signals of impatience from Middleton and some level of vet signings that do not really help the rebuild, but seem to be tailored to create PR (we got Howie Kendrick!).

[EDmuch]

I think the off-season could be really interesting to see what Klentak does with Joseph. He is going to HAVE to move him. What kind of creative deal can he work out involving him? Same goes for Galvis and Hernandez. He is probably going to HAVE to move one of them. What can he do to also make that a constructive move? The Winter meetings could see some real action his year.

[bigegypt0417]

Yes, because that wouldn't be the conversation. First, throw away" is your term, not mine. It is not that TPTB decided to throw away money on vets, it's that they made a decision that turned out to be incorrect. And yes, that could have soaked up enough of the budget that there weren't more $ available for amateur signings.

No. The answer is no. I'm sorry but your whole premise is based on an idea that couldn't be true.

3 million dollars isn't the bridge too far. Then klentak would have adjusted his budget and spent less on veterans. You kept saying it wasn't money and now it's money.

Your scenario isn't realistic.

[Philsmania]

There is simply no excuse that Neshek shouldn't be dealt within the next seven days. However, I am not going to panic unless and until he's still a Phillie come Sunday.

Other than him, though, all of the supposedly tradeable commodities have issues which depress their value on the trade market.

Hellickson is expensive and simply not very good, mediocre at best which makes him borderline untradeable. The Phillies would probably have to pay close to $4 million of the close to $5.7 million he would be owed for the rest of the season. Just to get a lottery ticket for him. The Phillies would need to decide if that $4 million is essentially worth the opportunity to give a younger starter a chance. Or, trade him with the money to salvage something if, as AF suggests, they are mulling cutting him and simply eating the contract, a la Saunders. Regardless, it's all water under the bridge now but the flip Hellickson ship clearly sailed a year ago.

Kendrick has been injury prone and hasn't even played in half of the Phillies' games.

Nava has also been a little bit injury prone and, remember, is four months removed from being a non-roster spring training invitee.

Benoit is in the same category as Hellickson, expensive and not very good and, I believe, his public thrashing of Mackanin (regardless of whether or not Mack deserved it) has probably made other managers wary about bringing him into their clubhouses.

Joseph has done a nice job of salvaging something of his career but is still probably just a stopgap firstbaseman for a rebuilding team. Platoon player? Teams rarely seem to employ platoons at first base.

Rupp, see Joseph above except as a catcher. In the grand scheme of things, he's probably just a stopgap for a rebuiliding team.

Well, Klentak got a Neshek deal done though the Rockies were a bit of a surprise. Denver didn't seem to come into the picture until late. However, for the above-mentioned reasons, it's probably a longshot that anything else gets done before 5:00 p.m. Monday. Not impossible, but a longshot. We shall see, I guess.

[allentown]

Why is a pattern which the Philiies have followed for much of the past 3 decades impossible or unrealistic? This certainly was the approach under RAJ. You and a lot of other posters seem to have hoped so much that it changed that you've just assumed a change and label any suggestion that this Phillies' approach hasn't actually changed under the new regime as ridiculous. To me, it is very far from ridiculous to suppose that this particular bit of same-old, same-old has carried over intact from the old regime.