Discussion

allentown 2017-07-17 19:00:40 UTC #321

If they want to drop salary, Gordon/Stanton, you do. Or you don't do the deal if it doesn't actually improve the team in the long run, when we are again a playoff team. Look at the sorts of players we gave up to get Lee or Halladay or Pence. Not a Kingery in any of these deals, not counting the mistake on the throw-in list of the Pence deal. The heart of the Lee deal was a guy in rookie league, who was basically a younger Tirado and with a history of arm woes.

David_Criss 2017-07-17 19:03:00 UTC #322

Getting Dee Gordon would not be the end of the world, especially if taking on his salary lowered the prospects sent to also acquire Yelich. The Phillies need a lead off hitter. Gordon does that for you. With adding Yelich, what becomes of Altherr, Williams, Hererra, Cozens, Quinn and Perkins?

bigegypt0417 2017-07-17 19:03:01 UTC #323

I just think I would hold on to Moniak...it could be because I'm a fan and think when it clicks with him, we'll be happy with the results.

I like Kingery but if you can make him the centerpiece and give up less pieces, you have to at least entertain the idea...

andyb 2017-07-17 19:04:30 UTC #324

The top prospect in the Lee deal was Carrasco. Knapp was the second most valuable piece followed by Marson and Donald.

Carrasco would be like us giving up Eflin or Pivetta. Knapp is more the Tirado throw-in or maybe an Adonis Medina type of low minors hard thrower.

nycphils 2017-07-17 19:06:50 UTC #325

The only untouchable in my eyes is Sixto. Still a huge risk, but the kind of prospect we haven't had since Hamels it because of how far away you wouldn't get equivalent value anyway.

Everyone else profiles as a solid regular at best but not a star. Even Hoskins, he'll most likely be at best an Eic Hosmer type, not a Votto/Rizzo/Goldschmidt type. I like Kingery and would not deal without a premium, but he's more Starlin Castro rather than Murphy or peak Utley/Pedroia/Cano.

bigegypt0417 2017-07-17 19:09:45 UTC #326

Cliff lee was older and much more expensive. Yelich is a known cost for the next 4 years...

andyb 2017-07-17 19:14:02 UTC #327

I think the Phillies see Yelich as the sweetner to take the Stanton contract. A standalone Yelich deal would be more expensive than the Lee deal since his favorable contract goes much longer.

I just don't see Miami doing a Yelich deal though and it probably does not make sense for the Phillies to give up a package that starts with Moniak and Kilome and includes a couple of lesser prospects.

allentown 2017-07-17 19:14:28 UTC #328

Knapp was identified by Cleveland GM as the guy he really wanted in the deal. Carrasco was certainly the most established minor leaguer, although he was having a bad AAA season at the time. I think Eflin is a good comp. I'd include Eflin in a Miami deal. Marson was pretty much already a bust at the time of the trade. Donald didn't seem much. He actually did better than I expected. We also weren't taking on another player(s) with bad contract in that deal. But to mimic the Lee deal: Eflin, Tirado, Rupp, Hernandez (Valentin really more comparable). So... I'd take on the bad salaries, keep Tirado and give them Odubel instead.

Austinfan 2017-07-17 19:32:39 UTC #329

Lee was a lot older without the below market contract.
To get Yelich at that kind of discount you'd have to take on the Stanton contract.
I'd deal Tirado in a heartbeat, doesn't fit Klentak's philosophy on pitchers, great arm, no command and no sign he'll ever develop some.
Whereas as flaky as Odubel is, he's on a low cost contract with a huge upside if he ever gets it together (defense, speed, gap power, and an explosive bat) and stops chasing pitches outside the K zone.

Actually Herrera, Cozens and Eflin would be a good deal for Yelich for both teams. And we'll take Gordon's contract off them, eat half, and flip him for a decent prospect.
I can't imagine touching Stanton with that contract, he's a 3-4 WAR player right now, but after age 32? With 5 years left at $30M a year with a $10M buyout. Been there, done that.
Why is why I'm against ever taking on that kind of deal (and why baseball should limit the length of contracts in the next CBA to 6 years or so) - the back end could cripple you for an extended period.

nycphils 2017-07-17 19:44:24 UTC #330

Not a comment on dealing him or not, but Herrera on that contract has a lot of value...Herrera's inconsistency is highlighted because he's on a team with mediocre hitters. If he hit 7th in a good lineup every day and could carry the team for stretches when he's hot, that would look pretty great.

andyb 2017-07-17 19:45:39 UTC #331

Lee's contract when the Phillies dealt for him was substantially below market. He was in the middle of a $6 million year and had 2 more seasons at $9 and $11 million. Even in 2009 the going rate for top pitchers was $20+ million a year. Lee was coming off a Cy Young in 2008 so I would say he fit the definition of top pitcher at the time.

allentown 2017-07-17 19:57:19 UTC #332

That's what I'm proposing. The Phillies are precisely the team that can take on that contract and not be impeded by the out years. It's a way to add talent for only money.

Austinfan 2017-07-17 20:05:18 UTC #333

Even the Phillies will struggle to swallow the out years from 2022-2027, when they'll be trying to resign the core of their newly competitive team.
The kind of contract we should be looking to take in is more like Gordon, overpaid the next three years, but one we can swallow or take on half to trade without impigning on future flexibility.

andyb 2017-07-17 20:10:31 UTC #334

But Miami can't trade Stanton for only money. They will need some prospect return. Yelich in the deal would mean that the Marlins would not have to put up money to pay for some of the Stanton deal - but it only would add to the prospects needed.

The 2 types of deals the Marlins could do are:

A. Stanton + $100-$200 million for 2-4 prospects, 1 of them good
B. Stanton + Yelich + $0 for 4-5 prospects, 2 of them good

"A" won't happen so the Phillies are probably exploring "B". A trade of Stanton with no money for B-level prospects would be ideal for the Phillies. Just don't think Miami can let him go without getting at least 1 good A-level prospect in return.

California_Dreamin 2017-07-17 20:10:40 UTC #335

If the Gordon rumors are true, and the Phils are trying to pry Yelich from Florida, its possible that they indicated they weren't enamored with taking on Stanton's contract in order to acquire Yelich but would consider Gordon's contact, one that the Marlins are also rumored to be trying to unload.

At least I hope this is how the Phils are trying to negotiate deals. I remember how we always derided Wade [and Amaro to a lesser extent] for the inability to multi-task in deal making. There was more multi-tasking going on at this site than Wade was able to do and IIRC, that was a concern mentioned about Klentak last summer.

I am taking a wait and see attitude about the Phils July deadline but still think Neshek should have been moved by now. Both Olney [today in his ESPN article] and Salisbury [several times] have insisted that this is no IF but WHEN situation for Neshek but I agree with allentown that teams are now making moves on relievers and if these teams deem Klentak too slow to act they will move on.

bkox 2017-07-17 20:27:36 UTC #336

I dont want Yelich. I know hes 25 with a decent contract.... But Im very happy with going into 2018 with an OF of Williams/Herrera/Altherr or Williams/Altherr/Cozens
OF seems to be one of our strengths with what we have and what is on the pharm. .. so why be shipping off prospects to Bring in Yelich (and maybe Stanton).

allentown 2017-07-17 20:42:16 UTC #337

You just made that up. There is no baseball rule that requires X number of prospects if you are saving $Y in salary commitments, especially if you take back some MLB starters in the trade. Yelich makes Odubel redundant. We could arrange a trade around him. Gordon can play half a season at 2B before Kingery comes up, making Hernandez redundant. Joseph simply is redundant with Hoskins ready to come to Philly. Mix and match among those guys and some second-tier prospects and the commish can't really object.

bigegypt0417 2017-07-17 20:49:30 UTC #338

Are you under the impression the Phillies would be the only team in these talks? Half the teams in baseball would want yelich...

andyb 2017-07-17 21:04:55 UTC #339

Of course I made it up. Plain and simple Miami is just not going to dump the contract of the franchise icon in his prime in the middle of a 900+ OPS season. They are not going to do it without significant prospect return and the dollars on the contract are an obstacle to that. If Miami puts in lots of money it is a bad deal for them financially. If they don't why would the Phillies pick up the contract AND give up prospects?

Yelich and Gordon make more sense for the Phillies but the dollars on the Gordon contract are not enough to lessen the Yelich price that much.

allentown 2017-07-17 21:09:14 UTC #340

I'm very aware there is competition. I'm also aware of Yelich value to Phillies. We can take on quite a few $ without serious harm to our future. We can give up young, cheap MLB starters without hurting ourselves. I think trading guys like Kingery and Moniak hurts us. I'd rather take my chances on Kingery and the OFs we have in the system than on Yelich. If that means another team beats us out, that's fine. It's an opportunity to add talent and is worth exploring, but Yelich isn't worth a big chunk of our top prospects. We probably do lose the bidding, because there are teams that are contending this year, and likely will contend again in 2018 and 2019, three things which can't be said about the Phillies. For next season, Yelich would just be a help in selling tickets for the Phillies. Same for 2019. By 2020 one of our prospect OFs is likely Yelich's equal. Half the teams in baseball may want Yelich -- I believe that is true, likely even more than half -- but, how many of those teams are willing to take on Stanton with his full salary commitment in order to get Yelich? That is the main thing I'm offering the Marlins. If they choose to pass, fine. I choose not to give up our top prospects.