2017 Season Phillies Discussion (News/Notes, etc.), continued

[Austinfan]

There are no pitchers that are going to be available in free agency that will move the needle, that is, someone like Kershaw in his prime.
You sign pitchers who are over 30 as stopgaps, because their longevity is a real question for all but a few pitchers, and those few are unlikely to hit the market.

As far as trading Galvis and Hernandez, it comes down to what they're offered, when they're offered, and how fast Kingery and Crawford develop.
I think it's far better to keep a kid in the minors an extra half year, let him learn there without the clock running, then bring him up when he's ready to contribute.
Same with the young pitchers, though in the case of most pitchers, you're only going to get 3-4 good seasons from them so it's less of an issue.
But if the right deal comes along . . .

There are no shortcuts to a real rebuild, not a one year peak then collapse job.
You have to obtain quality, build organizational depth, make good trades and judicious signings.
And throwing the owner's money away on bad deals is the best way to discourage the owner from taking chances when you really need to pay to play.

Siegrist is worth a look, his FB velocity has been declining for four years, which should be a concern, but he's starting to work in a curve with his changeup.
At worst, you let him walk, at best you sign him for next year at low cost on a one year "show me" deal and see if he can bounce back.

[allentown]

There are no shortcuts to a real rebuild, not a one year peak then collapse job.

I don't think that is entirely true. I certainly agree that you need to build a home-grown core. A cheap, young core allows the purchase of FA-priced added talent, whether by trade (disadvantage: lose prospect talent), FA (disadvantage: pay more total $), or international over-25 (disadvantage: little supply, know less about how they will perform in MLB). A lot of $$/salary-cap space does indeed provide a way to shortcut a total rebuild -- once you have most of a core (and we do in our lineup, plus Nola and Eickhoff in the rotation) you can afford to add several expensive talents through overpays.

In fact, there is the danger of perpetual rebuild, if you don't use your $ to push yourself over the top and into contention. Guys like Herrera, Hernandez, and Galvis aren't going to be at peak much longer. Waith and that is 3 more members of the base you need to replace. You can churn short of .500 forever, if you don't spend, as the young guys joining the team simply replace the established guys sliding over the hill and you churn short of becoming a winning team, because you keep waiting until you are just one or two guys short of the playoffs and that time never comes.

Why does that time never come? Because we don't have enough top talent in our minors that we are ever going to see a one or two year surge of a handful of average first-division starters or better. If you map out likely ETAs for our minor leaguers and assess who looks to be an average first division starter or better, I just don't see a magic time in the near future.

Part of it is luck. We need to find our current equivalent of the kick over the hill provided by Werth and Victorino. It's good that we are claiming pitchers on waivers and giving them a trial. That's very smart and very low cost.

I do not see at all how starting to spend big this winter leads to a one-year peak and collapse. A top starting pitcher is likelier to be a significant contributor for three years than for one. Lee was, and he was older than the guys out there this winter. Even Halladay at 33 gave us two excellent years then a year like the one Hellickson just gave us.

[Austinfan]

Spending big this winter doesn't lead to anything, because there are no game changers out there, just a couple pitchers who might win you 1-2 more games for a year or two than the other FA pitchers you might sign.
That's not how you kickstart a rebuild.
I don't really care, it's not my money, but I think it's a moot issue. Spending big on Darvish or Wynn will probably not make a lick of difference in 2020.
Drafting another Nola in the 2018 draft, fixing Lively's mechanics, fixing Pivetta's head and teaching him a changeup, and so on have far more potential to make a difference in 2020.

The trades Klentak makes over the next nine months (i.e. this December and next July) will be far more important than whatever FA they overpay, b/c the right trade could land a couple guys who could play key roles in 2020.
The top teams haven't been built through high priced free agents, they've been built through draft picks and trades and a few "patches" in FA.
As Werth and Victorino and Durbin and . . . show, it's the accumulation of good "small" decisions that makes the biggest difference.
I rather pay a few million to pry Searage out of Pittsburgh than pay Darvish $125M - he'd probably deliver more WAR!

So if Middleton wants to sign Darvish or have a bonfire and burn $100M, in my eyes it will have the same long-term impact on this team.

[schillingfan]

AFan - You say you would rather overspend for one year than five years? Why is inane either or choice? What difference does it make when we could afford to pay for both? To me the real issue is the player you are considering. Signing one player for $20 million for one year does not preclude another player for $150 million for five years.

No, I'm saying I'd rather overspend for one year than for 5-6 years.
Darvish or Lynn to me are slight upgrades over what you'd get on a 1-2 year deal pitcher (and their money would pay for 2 of these guys), which is not going to move the needle in 2018-2019, 3 WAR instead of 1-2 WAR. I think the odds are against either providing much value in 2020. They'll be 33/32 in 2019, 34/33 in 2020,

In fact, I'd rather sign a couple 1-2 year veteran SPs, and resign Nicasio to a 2-3 year deal than sign Darvish or Lynn, you'd get the same WAR in 2018, a chance to flip pitchers in July, buy time for the young pitchers, and have no out year exposure. It's hard to trade a pitcher on a 5 year deal, but easy to trade a pitcher on a 1-2 year deal.

We might sniff .500 next year if everything goes right, but I don't see us close to contention until 2019 and a real contender until 2020.
After the 2018 season Klentak will know if a FA will get them close to the playoffs, after the 2019 season he'll know if he even needs to add a FA.
My odds are on a 3B, not a pitcher, whether a trade or FA (no, not Machado).
I've pretty much given up on Franco, like Joseph, there's no sign of improvement as the year progressed. Sure they may turn it around someday, but someday never comes.

[andyb]

So if Middleton wants to sign Darvish or have a bonfire and burn $100M, in my eyes it will have the same long-term impact on this team.

How is that? Darvish is a 4 WAR pitcher. Maybe even a little better the further he gets from TJ surgery. With Hellickson dealt Nola is the only pitcher we have that will likely be more than a 1.0 WAR pitcher this year. Euckhoff (0.8), Lively (0.7), Leiter (0.6), and Velasquez (0.4) are the only others above zero. Eflin, Pivetta, and Thompson were all below zero.

Darvish could easily add 5 wins to this team. Add another 2-3 for a mid-level signing. At the point the needle has moved and with a strategic trade of Galvis or Rupp you might add other players while the replacements in Crawford and Alfaro/Knapp are just as good.

We have a bad pitching staff. We have the money to address that without impacting the future one bit. BTW Werth and Victorino and Durbin do not show that the accumulation of good small decisions are the biggest difference. They help of course, but there is no World Championships without Utley, Rollins, Howard, Hamels, and Lidge. Stars matter more. Small decisions might you over the top. Utley and Rollins were the two best players on that team with 14+ WAR.

[zambonir]

At worst, you let him walk, at best you sign him for next year at low cost on a one year "show me" deal and see if he can bounce back.

He's not a free agent (which is also the good news). They will have to tender him and pay him a reasonable arbitration-avoiding salary, which doesn't mean he'll be expensive, but he'll get what's coming to him if the Phillies decide to keep him (and I'm assuming the Cardinals had already decided they were going to non-tender him, so they dumped him early). Then you can either extend or non-tender him depending how he looks (or just keeping doing the year-to-year until 2020. Or trade him).

[Austinfan]

Darvish is not a 4 WAR pitcher.
He was 3.9 and 5.8 at age 25 and 26.
Since then he's been 3.2, IR, 2.5, 3.5
He'll be 32 next August, he's as likely to recede as improve.
Sure, he might put up 4 WAR next summer, he might also put up 2 WAR.
By 2020, he'll be 34 and a 50/50 bet to fall off the cliff.

He's a good pitcher, and if the Phillies were an 85 win team with a great lineup (2002-2007 teams) and shaky pitching, he'd be worth an overpay if they had the money to spare.
That would be a gamble to get 2 good seasons out of him and take your chances for the rest of the contract - and some contender may well do that this winter.
But that gamble doesn't make sense for the current Phillies, with the contract they'd have to give him, he'd be untradeable.
The same people who want the #1 pick next summer seem hellbent on spending lots of money to win 75 games instead of 72 next year.

PS: Utley (1st), Rollins (2nd rd), Howard (5th rd), Hamels (1st), and Lidge (trade). None were free agents, and giving Howard big money early was one of the biggest mistakes they made..

[julio]

Darvish is not a 4 WAR pitcher.
He was 3.9 and 5.8 at age 25 and 26.
Since then he's been 3.2, IR, 2.5, 3.5

What is this 'IR" you keep referencing?

[bkox]

What is this 'IR" you keep referencing?

Im sure he means DL

[Austinfan]

Hey, it's NFL cutdown day, crossed-wires.

[julio]

Hey, it's NFL cutdown day, crossed-wires.

Yeah well, just don't make any comments about how well Adam Morgan pitches in the red zone, OK?

[andyb]

Darvish is not a 4 WAR pitcher.
He was 3.9 and 5.8 at age 25 and 26.
Since then he's been 3.2, IR, 2.5, 3.5

Uh, he is. 3.9 is basically 4. 5.8 was a great year. Then 3.2 in 2/3 of a season and 2.5 in half are both pro-rated over 4 WAR. And 3.5 this year is a pace for about 4.0 WAR. That is kind of the definition of a 4 WAR pitcher outside the one-time TJ surgery which has not affected his effectiveness that much.

P.S. we have one good starter. We have a bunch of AAAA arms and unproven kids below that. How again are you going to use the team's financial resources to make the team better? Still waiting on an answer. You basically said that Werth and Victorino were more important than Utley and Rollins. When you say stuff like that as a justification to never sign or trade for any big money players you need to be called on how wrong your statement is.

[Austinfan]

I never said Werth and Victorino were more important than Utley and Rollins.
The whole point is they used the Rule 5, SFA, and the draft to build that team, and a few trades (Blanton for example).

Same thing is happening now:
Herrera (Rule 5), Williams/Alfaro (trade), Franco/Galvis/Hernandez (LA signings), Hoskins (5th rd), Altherr (9th rd), Rupp (3rd rd), Knapp (2nd)
Nola (#7), Lively/Eflin/Velasquez/Pivetta/Eickhoff/Thompson/Eshelman (trade), Leiter (22nd rd)
Neris/Garcia/Ramos/Rios (LA signing), Nicasio (SFA), Morgan (3rd), Milner (7th)

[andyb]

The whole point is they used the Rule 5, SFA, and the draft to build that team, and a few trades (Blanton for example).

But it is a totally, utterly meaningless point. You seem to think that anybody here is arguing that the Phillies should not develop their own talent. We are much closer to the team that had to sign Thome to accelerate the rebuild because the prospects were not quite ready yet. So basically you are kind of arguing with yourself in this dreamworld where you suppose others are arguing to not develop talent from within.

Teams need to use all the resources they have. The Phillies have less than $10 million in salary committed for next season. Their biggest arbitration reward will be to a guy they should trade (Galvis) because they likely have someone better. This team will have a hard time putting together a $100 million payroll next year.

And the starting rotation is awful. One good pitcher in Nola and bunch of AAAA pitchers and young maybes that don't have particularly high ceilings..

Again I am waiting for your strategy on how to use the team's financial resources to make it better. I choose a way that does not trade any significant prospects. You choose to do little and not spend any real money. This team is on the verge of having an above average offense with the one of the worst pitching staffs in the league.

[bkox]

Matt Breen (matt_breen)

[Austinfan]

I already told you three times, do what they did last year, short-term deals for pitchers, flip a few in July and keep the rebuild going in 2018.
There's no one on the market I want to make a big, long-term commitment to, because my focus is on 2020, not 2018.

[EDmuch]

So AF, you expect fans to come out to the ballpark for 2 more years with little hope to see a competitive team. I do not think it is fair to say your "focus" is on 2020. 2020 is more like your obsession and you have no concern for the product that is put on the field before then,

[andyb]

That is a strategy to have an $80 million payroll with a bad team that will not yield any significant prospects. And a complete waste of the team's biggest untapped resource - money. Good organizations use all your resources. Your strategy does not.

[Austinfan]

Whether this team is competitive will have little to do with signing Darvish or Lynn.
It'll be determined by the young players currently on the team and at Reading and Lehigh (i.e., players that reasonably can be expected in Philly in 2018 and 2019)
And by the trades Klentak makes this winter and next July.

[EDmuch]

That is patently false. Going by the record of the past three months, the team is already competitive but for the pitching staff.