2017 Season Phillies Discussion (News/Notes, etc.), continued

[California_Dreamin]

First hand reports were that Appel was hitting 93 yesterday. If true, thats a good sign and more reason to bring him up and let him relieve in September. Right now that Giles deal is looking like a Houston win [you win some, you lose some, Hamels was at least a draw and maybe an eventual Phillie win] but if Appel can somehow become a useful part of the Phillie roster then the deal may not end as badly.

Eshelman will also play a determining part and while Arauz has had a very impressive year, he is a righty who never touches 90 so its hard to see him make it.

[California_Dreamin]

EDmuch is correct. I pointed out yesterday that before the Saturday night game the Phils were 22-23 in their past 45 games, quite respectable. And they are playing that way. If not for a porous pitching staff they would likely have 3-4 more wins, I mean if you told me yesterday morning the Phils were going to score 9 runs for Nola I would have added yet another victory to the win column.

What the Phils really need in September is for one of their young hurlers, be it Thompson, Lively, Leiter, Eflin or Eshelman to string together 3-4 solid starts and give both player and team hope that one of them can become part of the 2018 rotation.

Because right now its Nola and Throw Gum on a Wall and hope one sticks.

[Lucky_Beagle]

Because right now its Nola and Throw Gum on a Wall and hope one sticks.

Nola was a major factor in the team still losing even though the scored 9 runs yesterday.

[allentown]

Every pitcher has an off day. The only issue with Nola is whether or not his arm remains healthy. Well, I should say the only issue with Nola and that particular game. Nola has yet to demonstrate the ability to throw an adequate number of innings in a season. He threw 178 innings in 2015, 111 last season, and is at 153 IP this season. He is likely tiring.

[Austinfan]

They're losing games right now because they're thin on pitching, but also because they're willing to lose games to look at pitchers.
Pinto shouldn't be in the majors right now, he has very good stuff, but no clue.
Which is probably why they just picked up two veteran RPs. Because with young starters, they need a deep bullpen to finish the season.

The young starters have shown flashes, some need to start next year in Lehigh, but I can see the Phillies going into next August with 5 young starters and rolling people.
Guys like Lively, Pivetta, are not years away, they're "tweaks" away. Leiter has shown at worst he's a serviceable "6", at best a solid back of the rotation option.
Getting Eflin and Thompson a taste of ML hitting will help them focus on what they need to work on in the offseason.
Getting Eickhoff and Velasquez healthy won't hurt. Especially Eickhoff, who is a 2-3 WAR pitcher when healthy, he's not the same throwing 88-89 v 90-91.
This isn't past years, when maybe 1 young pitcher, in a good year 2, might be auditioning for a job. And most were marginal (see Kendrick, Worley, etc).

Even if they add a veteran arm, they'll have 4 young starters in Philly, [Nola, Eickhoff, Lively, Pivetta, Velasquez, Leiter]
a solid 5-6 man rotation in Lehigh (Eflin, Thompson, Anderson, Kilome, Eshelman, Taveras]
Reading.[El Garcia, Irvin, Viza, Waguespack, M Sanchez]
Clearwater [Romero, S Sanchez, Saurez, Dominquez, Medina, Mills, E Garcia, Arauz, Fanti, Falter, Llovera, Requena]
Lakewood [Howard, Seabold, Young, Stewart, Russo, Morales]
They've never had close to this pitching depth in the farm system.

As far as Appel, I have little hope, but it won't hurt to audition him in September and see if there's something there before making an offseason roster decision.

[Austinfan]

He's still only 24, which is easy to forget.
However, physically he's not a horse like Pivetta, who I think will be an innings eater if he learns to throw strikes.
To me, it's just as important how long you throw hard, as how hard you throw.

[zambonir]

Nola
trade acquisition
mid-level FA
Eickhoff--assuming he's not seriously hurt after today
one of Velasquez/Pivetta/Lively/Eflin/Eshelman

We can keep arguing about this until December but to me the above is what is actually going to happen. Won't be Darvish or Lynn, but also won't be more Hellicksons or Bucholtzs. And one of the guys on line 5 will be included in the deal for line 2.

[Austinfan]

That's pretty much what I expect.
A trade for a #2/#3 who is in his mid to late 20s.
Sign a 1-2 year deal with an older pitcher (or two) as a short-term patch who'll be dealt in July if he performs well (and cut if he doesn't)
Sign 2-3 veteran RPs for depth (they're already auditioning 2) and deal 1-2 in July.
Sign a few RPs who are "stash them in AAA" types for ST, with the typical "promoted or released" by July 1 clauses.

This will allow them to field a solid pitching staff to start the season, with the flexibility to move out a veteran pitcher to make room for young pitchers when they show they're ready to be promoted.

I could see a package of Velasquez, Thompson, Tocci and Mora for example for a starting pitcher.

[allentown]

We can keep arguing about this until December but to me the above is what is actually going to happen.

You are probably correct that this is the way it will be, since this is the typical Phillies pattern. This may even be the way it has to be, but... absolutely no question in my mind that both in 2018 and going forward, we will be a stronger team and a stronger organization if the guy you have in the #2 hole is Darvish or Lynn than a guy we get via trade. When I say that what you outline may be the way it has to be, I mean that I realize that it will be difficult to recruit Darvish or Lynn to Philly, even with an overpay. I don't mind the overpay, because we're awash in $$$, but the FAs may not buy into the team's vision of a brighter future arriving relatively quickly.

[andyb]

It does not have to be a free agent necessarily but they do need to figure out a way to use their money while minimizing the prospects they trade. AF's rotation is in a word, lousy. Nola is basically a #2/#3 starter and looking more like a 3 because he has not shown any durability. Everyone else is a #5 at best. Any mid-level free agent is likely to be worse than Hellickson. Alex Cobb is basically Hellickson and he will cost $60 million most likely.

One of the things we need to realize is that the wave of arms we have developed in the last couple years may not be that good. Velasquez has the most potential but can't realize it. Eickhoff showed durability before this season but the league may have caught up with him a bit. He basically has back of the rotation stuff and is not a number 3. Everybody else has not been that good. Pivetta may be more of a bullpen candidate long term. Thompson's stuff has regressed. Eflin does not strike out enough. Guys like Leiter and Eshelman and Lively are basically AAAA pitchers. We probably get some back of the rotation years out of the group but they are really not that good.

Our pitchers that might be a number 3 quality starter or better are a couple of years away. Not all of Kilome, Sanchez, Dominguez, Medina, and Gowdy will end up profiling that high but at least they have a chance.

The need is clear to add veteran starters either through free agency or trade. RIght now we will not get much for what AF wants to trade. I'd prefer not to trade Sixto to get Chris Archer. Getting Darvish or Lynn means we spend money to have both. We probably do need a trade because the free agent market is not deep. It would have been a good idea to explore Grienke last year for instance. Our market is guys that are owed $100 million or potentially a couple of arbitration pitchers that might get $15 million awards.

Klentak also needs to clear out Galvis and a catcher and maybe Hernandez. When we have minor leaguers that are potentially better we can use their trade value to add starting pitching. We can't afford another winter of no major moves like last year.

Wasting $100 million a year by not figuring out how to spend it on talent that can help the club is almost as bad as spending on an older pitcher that gets hurt. Maybe just as bad since spending the money over the next 5-7 years will not impact any luxury tax payroll concerns. AF's strategy wastes resources plain and simple and is the wrong strategy. We are so far from fielding a solid pitching staff next year that patches will simply not help much.

[allentown]

Wasting $100 million a year by not figuring out how to spend it on talent that can help the club is almost as bad as spending on an older pitcher that gets hurt. Maybe just as bad since spending the money over the next 5-7 years will not impact any luxury tax payroll concerns

There also is a $ problem in trading prospects for a #2 starter in his late 20s. You are going to have to give up some solid prospects for that. If the guys you give up include just one prospect who becomes a good enough MLB player to average 2 WAR per season, well short of stardom, at an average WAR value of $8 million/WAR for the 6 full years of team control, that is a value of $96 million. The guy is unlikely to earn more than $20 million over the 6 seasons, so you are trading away a surplus value of $76 million. If you overspend on a 4-year deal for Darvish or Lynn, the overpay in that deal is probably less than $76 million, so the FA signing is more cost effective than the trade.

To tilt matters even more, the overspend on the FA only lasts 4 years. In the 5th and 6th years, the guy you didn't trade is still racking up WAR value at reasonable cost, so you are much better off in the out-years when there is at least some possibility of a salary cap pinch, if we wanted to go FA aggressive then.

[zambonir]

Of course one's definition of a "mid-level FA" may vary. To me that should still be the 6th-10th best available starter, someone like Hill or Volquez last year, on a fairly well-paying three-year deal (though Volquez only got two). I'd put guys like Jason Hammel and Charlie Morton in the middle third, with one-year guys at the bottom of that.

I just don't think the Phillies could land one of the top guys even if they wanted to. Even overpaying (which still doesn't mean outbidding everyone). But we'll see. Maybe there is one guy they like who they will target (not that I necessarily want whoever scouted Buchholtz and evaluted Hellickson internally to make that call).

[allentown]

(not that I necessarily want whoever scouted Buchholtz and evaluted Hellickson internally to make that call).

And that is the crux of the problem. We totally bombed on Burnett, Morton, and Buchholtz -- Hellickson was the only 'success', although we paid a very steep $17 mill for his 2017. Given the rate of failure in our mid-level SP signings, it is not at all economically efficient. Whether that is the nature of the beast or bad pro scouting, I don't know -- I just know that this approach has almost totally flopped for the Phillies since the golden age, and even the golden age started with the total bust of a deal for Garcia, in which a lot of WAR were shipped out for zip return. The Halladay and Lee deals worked. Blanton and Oswalt worked, but they were in-season deals, which are less risky, at least IMHO they're less risky.

[bkox]

CSN Philly (CSNPhilly)

[donaldorc]

Any word on Hoskin's injury?

[andyb]

I just think we have 20 young players that will not be making big money in 5 years. And 15 of them (like Sixto and Haseley) won't make big money for 7 or 8. We locked up the best offensive player in Herrera already for modest dollars and am confident they will do the same with Nola in a year after he proves a little more durability.

I am fine with trades. Most of the good pitchers with big contracts are on teams that can afford them. It probably is a little early in the rebuild to start dealing real prospects (like either Haseley or Moniak since they play the same position). So I am not sure what they get for 2nd or 3rd tier prospects. It just makes sense to slot a durable guy like Darvish or Lynn in there to protect anyone. Whether they could get away with 100/3 to Darvish I would say is unlikely. Someone will give him 150-175 for 6 years and he'll probably get an opt out anyway. BTW I am fine with giving anyone an opt out. If they want to guarantee 2 years and then leave if the rebuild is not working that is good for both parties.

[bkox]

Any word on Hoskin's injury?

Rhys Hoskins held out of Sunday's game with injury

[donaldorc]

philly.com

Rhys Hoskins held out of Sunday's game with injury

Rhys Hoskins tested his sore hand in the Marlins Park batting cage on Sunday morning but felt enough discomfort that Phillies manager Pete Mackanin left Hoskins out of the lineup for the first time since he reached the majors.

Thanks for the like, bkox.

[flyers19rw]

Some posters are too bleak with their predictions for the young arms in the organization. Pivetta gets rained on and then tosses a game like he did last night. The same goes with Thompson today. These players are like most of the others that have bounced between Philly and LV; they're young and learning how to pitch in the Bigs.
Smoltz has said that it takes at least three years in the show for a pitcher to learn how to do it at this level. There are exceptions but that rule has merit. Gio, Carrasco quickly come to mind as examples that many thought were AAAA guys when they were in the organization. They need guidance to work through these early years without getting their brains beat in.
It's crucial that the Phillies get pitching coaches into this organization that can work these guys into the game; a Leo Mazzone, Rothschild, Maddox, etc. PCs like this are out there and the Phillies have to get them. It has to be the highest priority of the off season.

[EDmuch]

I think Pivetta will definitely be in the rotation next year.