2017 Season Phillies Discussion (News/Notes, etc.), continued

California_Dreamin 2017-09-02 14:36:08 UTC #763

As someone who lives in SoCal and follows the Dodgers closely, trust me, they are not nor do they act like a small market team. They know they are a Goliath and constantly plan that way. They have their sights directly on Otani and think in the end it will be them or the Yankees who get him.

Speaking of the Phillies, I do hope they soon begin to open their purse strings, they are closer to respectability than many realize. Since their season worst record of 29-60, they have been 22-23 and if not for that Rupp-inspired double header awakening of the Braves, they might be over .500 for this 45 game period.

allentown and andyb are correct in my opinion, the Phils need to develop an attitude of never taking their foot off the pedal, something that they have done much to their detriment during this decade [except for 1-2 years under Gillick]. One thing about the Dodgers is that they are constantly re-tooling, tinkering, adding, subtracting.

Look at their roster, I dare you to name an 8 man starting lineup. You can't because they have so many interchangeable parts. Oh, they have their everyday stars, players like Saeger and Turner. But elsewhere, you are as likely to see an Utley as a Forsythe, a Puig as a Thompson, a Gonzalez as a Grandal and so on and so forth.

They have about 9 starting pitchers, so they are always fully prepared when a Kershaw or Wood or McCarthy go down, its merely next man up. I hope the Phillies are watching this since they have the resources to emulate this.

Because of the unpredictability of the playoff system no team is guaranteed to ever win the whole thing but the Dodgers philosophy is that if they are in contention every year they will win it occasionally. I hope the Phils feel the same way.

Austinfan 2017-09-02 14:41:39 UTC #764

I agree with both the need to bust budget when you're on the cusp of a WS, and the need to continually spend for the future.
If one thing characterized the Giles/Montgomery years, it was a complete lack of vision and organizational philosophy other than "don't rock the boat."

But I don't agree that you bust budget just to spend money, you do it strategically, when you'll get the most benefit.
Right now, the best strategy is to do what they did last year, spend $60M on short-term deals, they got about 5 WAR and 6 prospects, and could have done better with better execution.
Resigning Hellickson, like Morton the year before, was a good gamble, he was worse than expected but still garnered some value in July. Neshak and Benoit were good gambles. So was Kendricks.
Saunders and Buchholtz were overpays ex ante, and disasters ex post. Buchholtz had a bad injury history and Saunders simply had to pound the ball to have any value (negative defense).

Unless you can get Darvish or Lynn on a reasonable 3 year deal, I'd rinse and repeat last year's strategy, just execute it better.
Neither is going to move the needle, so you settle for a 1-2 WAR player on a flippable deal instead of a 3 WAR player who may flame out in a couple seasons on a 5 year deal.
As far as big money deals, to me the only big contracts you should ever give is to your own player covering the prime of his career, that is, something like Kershaw, from age 27 to 32 or so, if you are faced with a Cabrera or Pujols situation, and they want big money into their late 30s, trade them early and move on. You sign your own because you have much better information about their true value.

On the other hand, given organizational depth, there is no excuse not to trade for a couple million in LA allocations each year, I'd offer guys like Martin, Perkins, Pujols, Appel, etc. in a heartbeat, and even guys like Viza, Cumana, Stephen, etc.
And I'd certainly use money to "sweeten" trades they're gonna to have to make the next couple years, buy some A ball prospects you don't have to protect by throwing in a million or taking a bad contract back for real value.

Austinfan 2017-09-02 14:53:36 UTC #765

Otani is a different animal, but I'll be shocked if they overpay to keep Darvish, I'll bet they figure they can easily replace him.
For one thing, Japan signings are far more expensive in terms of money than cap, I don't think the payment to the Japanese team counts against the salary cap.
There was a big change when the new management crew came in after 2014, it's not that they stopped spending money, they just stopped throwing it around like a drunken sailor.
Same thing happened with the Yankees.

If you have a well run organization with lots of money, you can roll the competition if you use it wisely.
For example, Phillies will have to start trading pitchers in AAA, just look at next year's Lehigh rotation.
If Nola, Eickhoff, [veteran], Lively, Velasquez and Leiter as the swing starter is the rotation next year, you have:
Thompson, Eflin, Pivetta, Kilome, Anderson, Eshelman, Tavares, Leibrandt, Appel
A team like the Dodgers might package Tavares, Appel, Pullin, throw in some money, get a veteran SP and a couple solid A ball prospects in return.
Then flip the veteran in July for more prospects, and bring up the best starter at Lehigh.
You throw a couple million into the trade to get better prospects, take on a contract, then throw a couple million into the July trade to get better prospects.
Use that money to get an edge in every deal.

California_Dreamin 2017-09-02 14:57:14 UTC #766

I think Pivetta is in the rotation next year. I loved his comment yesterday about how he had beaten the Marlins before and was sure he could do it again, recent bombing from the Marlins be darned. I mentioned that I felt both Pivetta and Lively seem to have the personalities and confidence to overcome someone like McClure, this is a good example of it.

Pivetta is a very impressive pitcher in my opinion and might soon be the 2nd best starter on the club.

Austinfan 2017-09-02 15:15:58 UTC #767

I like Pivetta, but I think he's mentally not ready, he's "yanking" too many pitches, a sign that a pitcher is squeezing the baseball.
Just look at Nola as a rookie, a year younger than PIvetta is now but looking like "cool hand Luke" out there.
Pivetta in AAA was challenging hitters, Pivetta in the show looks scared.
I think he'll grow out of it with experience (we hope) but it wouldn't hurt him to spend more time in AAA, working on his changeup and mechanics (consistency).

I think the Phillies have 8-9 young pitchers who have a good shot at becoming ML starters.
Nola, Eickhoff, Pivetta, LIvely, Eflin, Thompson, Eshelman, Kilome, Anderson.
I think Velasquez's future is in the bullpen. The combination of a lack of durability and high pitch counts makes it unlikely he last as a SP.
Tavares and Leibrandt are long shots, they will need great command to make it as back of the rotation guys.

Which is why I counsel patience, they've all shown flashes, but it takes time for most young pitchers to develop consistency, we've been spoiled by Hamels, Happ (before he broke down) and Nola.
Not forever, but it's pretty normal for a young pticher to go up and down for a couple years before the light goes on and they settle into a rotation role.

allentown 2017-09-02 15:21:09 UTC #768

If I can get Lynn or Darvish for 6 year money on a 4-year deal, I do it. It will move the needle. As CD says, we haven't been awful since the AS break. Adding a #2 pitcher does 2 things that the FAs of the last 2 years doesn't: it tells the players that ownership things they have a chance to break .500 this season and it adds a team leader so that Nola doesn't need to be 'the guy'. It's also a way overdue present to the fans. It's a reasonable chance to get 4 good years out of either of these guys, although if we only get 3, that also ok. By packing all the money into 4 years, you rule out any possibility of financial burden in future years. Yes, we will overpay on a $/WAR basis. Does that even matter, given the current cap/budget state of the Phillies?

phillychuck 2017-09-02 15:22:29 UTC #769

I'm going all-in on Otani if I'm the Phils. Especially if the Yankees and Dodgers don't offer ridiculous deals.

That signing would move the needle for me...

allentown 2017-09-02 15:41:46 UTC #770

That signing would REALLY move the needle for ALL of us. It also would be a HUGE statement of ownership's intent to be truly competitive sooner rather than later. I think if we got Otani, we would need to promise him another big move this off-season and sell him on our second-half record. Otani is the only chance to add a 5 WAR player this off-season and to add a really young player on a multi-year deal. He would be signed to be a build-the-franchise-around-him guy.

California_Dreamin 2017-09-02 15:54:03 UTC #771

PC...apparently Otani wants one thing the Phils [and Dodgers for that matter] can't offer, a chance to DH when he is not pitching. I am not sure this is the wisest course of action for him career wise [better to focus on one] but when you are 23-25 years old you feel you can do anything.

This gives a big leg up to Yankees or Red Sox.

andyb 2017-09-02 16:36:28 UTC #772

So there is is. You are essentially saying you won't use the team's financial resources to make it better. Signing one of them for 5-7 years would not bust any budget. We can afford a payroll of $200 million. We are going to have to work really hard to get north of $125 million. And the budget really does not get worse 5 years from now because we have a string of prospects that will work inexpensively.

Your "best strategy" is to spend $60 million on mediocre players that are unlikely to be good enough to get decent prospects in return. We just acquired 6 prospects. None of them are that good. Maybe one or two will improve, but all we got was depth and we really already have better depth in each area where we acquired prospects.

This team can be decent in a hurry precisely because it has young players that will improve. It might not be in 2018 but certainly by 2019. And a Darvish type could help them in both years.

Do the math. How would paying Darvish $30 million for 6 years bust any budget. Luxury tax line will be like $220 million in 6 years, maybe more. Add Machado for $40 million and another starter for $25 million to Darvish at $30 million. You then have another $125 million to fill out a roster where 15 players will make $2 million or less.

zambonir 2017-09-02 17:08:25 UTC #773

But the thing about that is, we're watching the Ender Inciarte who went back to single A and got more than 1200 minor league ABs, just like we also got to develop the Shane Victorino who got to spend a year in AAA. If either of those guys had actually gone to the majors as Rule V players who knows what they would have become. Inciarte especially might have been another Goedell as easily as another Herrera.

(Less generously, he also might not have become what he became in the Phillies minor league system.)

California_Dreamin 2017-09-02 17:16:15 UTC #774

Have to agree with zambonir here. Phils knew they had a future gem, Charlie Manuel said so himself. but the 2012 Phillies were far from thinking about development and stashing players, they were still hopeful of another championship. Gosh, if we only knew then what we know now!

Reality is that the Phils as we knew them vanished the moment Howard went down to end the 2011 playoffs. That was it for the amazing 5 year run.

allentown 2017-09-02 17:23:30 UTC #775

That is true and that was my feeling when I saw Howard on the ground. The pertinent lesson from this for the present day Phillies is that Hoskins may be able to almost fill that Howard role.

Austinfan 2017-09-02 17:32:11 UTC #776

No, I'm saying I'd rather overspend for one year than for 5-6 years.
Darvish or Lynn to me are slight upgrades over what you'd get on a 1-2 year deal pitcher (and their money would pay for 2 of these guys), which is not going to move the needle in 2018-2019, 3 WAR instead of 1-2 WAR. I think the odds are against either providing much value in 2020. They'll be 33/32 in 2019, 34/33 in 2020,

In fact, I'd rather sign a couple 1-2 year veteran SPs, and resign Nicasio to a 2-3 year deal than sign Darvish or Lynn, you'd get the same WAR in 2018, a chance to flip pitchers in July, buy time for the young pitchers, and have no out year exposure. It's hard to trade a pitcher on a 5 year deal, but easy to trade a pitcher on a 1-2 year deal.

We might sniff .500 next year if everything goes right, but I don't see us close to contention until 2019 and a real contender until 2020.
After the 2018 season Klentak will know if a FA will get them close to the playoffs, after the 2019 season he'll know if he even needs to add a FA.
My odds are on a 3B, not a pitcher, whether a trade or FA (no, not Machado).
I've pretty much given up on Franco, like Joseph, there's no sign of improvement as the year progressed. Sure they may turn it around someday, but someday never comes.

julio 2017-09-02 17:48:33 UTC #777

I'm tempted to dive into the archives, just to see how many of us might have, in fact, foreseen then what we know now. It's probably not "none of us."

EDIT: Did a quick search... and it does appear to have been "none of us." I couldn't find a single "I hate to see us give up on this kid" post. Some modest hope for Ezequiel Carrera (the guy we returned Inciarte to make room for), some comments that we'd have been better off keeping Ben Revere, but nobody expressing any sense of loss/reservations about passing on Inciarte.

So, we had no more foresight, at least with regard to Ender's future game, than anybody else.

allentown 2017-09-02 18:03:37 UTC #778

Then you have to alter your other position about trading Hernandez and Galvis. If you are giving up on 2018 and 2019, then you have to trade them now, before they are on the decline and our young middle IFs need to start. If you want to take a shot at a winning team with the Galvis/Hernandez DP combo, then you need to over-spend on a multi-year deal for a top pitcher. You keep saying you can get two guys who will provide more for the same cost, but that just isn't true, as I've repeatedly demonstrated by citing the last 4 pitchers of the type you propose to acquire under the contracts you propose to give them. We got one good season out of the 4 guys and 5 years of contract. They weren't exactly cheap. This last crap year from Hellickson cost us $17 million. Adjusting for baseball inflation we paid the same for Burnette and got nothing. So no, you can't lay out your $25 mill for 2 SP on one- or two-year deals and do better than we will do with Lynn or Darvish. That's not speculation, the Phillies have repeatedly run that particular experiment. It's time to learn from the bad results and be smarter going forward. We have revenue/cap space that we don't need to be frugal, and your cost-conscious preferred approach is a false economy. It just doesn't work.

You are now citing that we got 5 prospects for the rent-a-vets whom Klentak traded this deadline. Before the deadline, when nothing was happening, you were professing not to care a whit if no prospects were acquired, because unless they were first-tier prospects they had no chance to move the needle. Well, we not only didn't get first-tier prospects, we also didn't get any second-tier prospects. It's arguable whether we got third-tier or fourth-tier prospects, but now you are lauding the five prospects we got in those trades as reason to repeat the approach. Huh? That is really extremely inconsistent on your part.

zambonir 2017-09-02 18:05:52 UTC #779

Klentak talks about emulating the Cubs and the Astros all the time, and the Phillies can spend like the Cubs. They signed Lester, Jason Heyward, Zobrist. I'm confident the Phillies will follow a similar path, we'll see two big-$ FAs on this roster by 2019/2020. Will we see one in 2018? If the right guy is available, but I don't think he is. There are other ways though.

julio 2017-09-02 18:48:40 UTC #780

andyb 2017-09-02 19:48:38 UTC #781

The problem with that strategy is it is just not realistic. There are no really good pitchers that would move any needle that would be available on 1-2 year deals. And to trade for good ones like Archer you give up significant prospects.

You claim to spend money but put restrictions on it so you can't get any decent players with your strategy. Which essentially means you are unwilling to use the team's significant financial resources to make it better. Darvish will not sign any deal for less than $100 million. He shouldn't. Do you want to offer him $125 million for 4 years as a frontloaded overpaying deal? I would. I doubt he would take it though. The cost of acquisition is sometimes overpaying and the Phillies are about the only team in baseball where OVERPAYING WOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON THEIR ABILITY TO ACQUIRE TALENT IN THE FUTURE.

It is a unique situation that should not be wasted.

andyb 2017-09-02 19:54:22 UTC #782

Happy to see them get Siegrest and to a lesser degree Nicasio. The Siegrest of 2015 and 2016 was really good. His velocity has dropped this year and they can easily cut him loose if it is injury-related, but he is worth a look in September to see if he is healthy and worth protecting over the winter. The bad season means he probably will get less than $3 million in arbitration this winter. September will help them evaluate whether he is worth it.

I think Nicasio was about adding a good arm to a pitching staff that is falling apart. Add him and a couple of minor leaguers and they probably can get through September without taxing anyone's arm too much. And the money sends a bit of a message that they care about the present.