2017 Season Phillies Discussion (News/Notes, etc.), continued

[allentown]

It is a barrier to communication/discourse and a sign of stubbornness/inability to counter arguments that question after question is ducked as if it was never raised. Yet this is the key question. The Phillies are awash in $ and cap space and will be for at least the next 4 years. Middleton seems to find the small size of the Phillies payroll going into 2017, and likely again going into 2018, to be an embarrassing PR/sales nightmare when coupled with a team that wins as little as this one does. So, money will be spent. I'd like to see it spent in a way which doesn't lose our better prospects to trades and which adds something positive for at least 2019 and 2020. As I've suggested in response to AF's past concerns about 2022 and beyond, the Phillies are well positioned to give a FA the money he wants for 6 years crunched into an equally big 4 year deal.

I think the big thing which AF refuses to consider is context. All of what he lays out makes sense for the state the Phillies were in from 2008 through 2011. The mistakes of that era seem etched in his brain to the exclusion of different thinking in very different circumstances. Back then the Phillies had both a salary crunch and a top-rated MLB team. Now we are in the cellar with almost no budget commitments in 2018 and beyond.

I've discussed (unresponded to) in prior posts how the Phillies have used the signings of relatively old, relatively expensive, relatively risky SP to one-year deals and one-year deals with an option. Starting with Burnett through Hellickson, the only return, either on the field or flipping for prospects, was Hellickson and he performed as a #3 one year and a #4/5 this year and was flipped for minimal return. That just doesn't seem cost efficient to me and it spends money to add zilch to our next winning team and did not produce a respectable current team in any of those years.

The last 3 seasons call for the owners/management to really extend themselves to field a decent team in 2018, while putting pieces in place which will help us win at least through 2020.

[Austinfan]

Business as usual.
As far as the 8 starters, 3B is the only real hole right now, but I'm not betting on Machado.
Florimon seems to have the inside track for Blanco's spot, Knapp, Alfaro, maybe an OF but you don't want a starter to intefere with your 3 young OFs.- maybe an upgrade on Nava.

I'd offer 3yr/$75M for Darvish, 3yr/$60M for Lynn (if he finishes strong and the arm holds up), otherwise look for a couple 1-2 year deals for patches for the SP.
I'd make it clear to agents that we're not giving 5 year contracts to 30+ year old pitchers. Let someone else play the greater fool.
I'd also look for a couple RPs (overspending for RP is fine if it doesn't cost you a draft pick).

2 SP at $25-30M or so total, 2-3 RP at $10-15M total, and a few bonuses spread around for non-40 man roster ST invites - so a quick $40-50M.
I'd also talk to teams about taking bad contracts off their hands for a price.

I'd be happy to get 35 or so veteran starts by the All star break, then flip them for prospects, and maybe a Neshak/Benoit deal as well.
By that time some of the same pitchers struggling this year will be ML ready.

I'll be very happy to see Klentak spread $50M or more around this winter as long as there is minimal "dead money" from 2020 onward.
For one thing, this give you more flexibility in the winter of 2018-19 and 2019-20 to overspend when the team is closer to being competitive.
Right now, I'd rather waste the money on short-term patches than overpay second tier FAs who'll be liabilities in 2020 and 2021.
I want trades for LA allocations and spending up to 105% in the draft and continued investment in staff and facilities in the minor leagues.

The real issue isn't the 1-2 year patches, but the bad judgement, there were veterans they could have signed who were better than the players they did sign, you're gonna miss on some, but they've missed on too many, though luck is also a factor.
And I have no problem trading some of their AA/AAA pitchers for ML SPs in their prime - it's up to your scouts to figure out which prospects are less likely to make it and move them to make room for the next group of pitchers. It's perfectly reasonable to me to trade 4 for 1, then flip 3-4 veterans in July for 4 more prospects - the Phillies have reached the point where organizational depth is less valuable than organization quality - and you can't hold players in the minor leagues indefinitely.
What you don't want is impatience driving decisions (Gonzalez and Floyd for Garcia), but cold calculation.

[flyers19rw]

There's spending money to invest and spending money just to spend it. I'd rather that the FO wait with the spending for a year and then go big after next season and land one or two of the major FAs.
There is not much out on the market this off season that merits big bucks. Darvish and Arrieta are the "headliners" and both of them have age and injury issues on their resumes. $20M plus for multiple years on Lance Lynn. Really? It's a rugged market.
For many reasons, it's better to grow your own rotation. If the Phillies are going to throw some money around, use it to hire a top of the line pitching coach(es) and get the best out of what they have.
The present guys in the rotation aren't that bad. Add a pitch; work on mechanics to be more consistent with their location; scheme better on batters and the like. There is talent here. It needs to be groomed better.

[allentown]

I'd be happy to go with Lynn. I think for either, we have to go 4 years on a deal, which just takes them through their age 34 seasons, which is a reasonable gamble. It also brings us only to 2021 and we should have no payroll problems through that season.

I don't see how $20 mil/year for Lynn is a crazy market advance. To me it makes a lot more sense than what we just paid Hellickson and WAY more sense than what we committed to with Burnett. With Burnett, we committed to his age 37 and 38 seasons. Even on a 2-year deal, I want no part of someone's age 37/38 seasons for big $. On a multi-year deal, I'm not willing to go beyond the age 35 year.

Those waiting for Harper, Trout, and Machado are going to see them sign 10-year, $300+ million deals.

[andyb]

I'd offer 3yr/$75M for Darvish, 3yr/$60M for Lynn (if he finishes strong and the arm holds up), otherwise look for a couple 1-2 year deals for patches for the SP.

Then why bother because the agents will laugh you out of the room. The players will be insulted that the Phillies are not an organization committed to win. The embarrassment would be so catastrophic that guys like Machado and Trout, the free agents we really want in the long term, would be less likely to consider the Phillies. Same for the next tier guys like Arenado.

You kind of don't get that spending $50 million on mediocre players would still leave us with a payroll below $100 million next year. None of your moves are realistic and they probably would not even accomplish the secondary goal of protecting our young pitchers and maybe adding 5 or 6 wins.

[Austinfan]

Don't be silly, agents will see if they get better offers, and if not, get back to you. They don't take it personally if they're professionals.
And players appreciate money spent on their teammates more than money spent on mercenaries.
Don't be so sure teams are going to throw money away this year, they didn't last year, and they have analysts looking at past signings and seeing the same thing I do, very few FA pitchers or even extensions give you more than 2 good seasons.
We're not going to sign Machado or Harper. We do have a shot at Trout if he wants to come home, he might even give a hometown discount because the money is so ridiculous.

But teams don't win because they sign big money free agents, they win because they make a series of smart moves over multiple years, drafting, signing, developing players and clever trades.
Most of the key FAs for winning teams are low cost patches and short-term deals to add depth, if you're depending on buying your way into contention, you've got problems.
So I really couldn't care if agents don't see the Phillies as a "sucker" team that'll overpay for second tier talent.
And yes, I think the Phillies should think like a $100M team and spend like a $200M team, that is, don't get into bidding wars in FA, do spend in LA, the draft, facilities, coaching, scouts and extending your own players. Do that and you can be competitive indefinitely and never make cap constrained decisions.

[zambonir]

That just doesn't seem cost efficient to me and it spends money to add zilch to our next winning team and did not produce a respectable current team in any of those years.

But they were also tanking. Not with Burnett, that was an ill-advised reaction to the loss of Lee/Halladay when they were still trying to win and weren't willing to rebuild (a period that did not end until they traded Hamels and fired Amaro). But the last two seasons for sure, despite the PR push for a better team this year (as MacPhail said, he thought last year's result would be this year's, and vice-versa).

They are not tanking next year so I agree flippability shouldn't be much of a priority. This year though, the emphasis on that was not just about the return, it was about opening up two rotation spots for youngsters (while not rushing them). Unfortunately that did not play out the way they hoped.

[allentown]

They may have been tanking last year. Do you really think they were tanking this year? I don't think that was Middleton's goal.

[bkox]

schmenkman 🇺🇸 (tgpschmenk)

[phillychuck]

Just sit back, press play, and enjoy. Then watch it again:

[HopeSpringsEternal]

Thanks PC - that was enjoyable to watch.

[bigegypt0417]

They may have been tanking last year. Do you really think they were tanking this year? I don't think that was Middleton's goal.

They aren't tanking this year. This team just ended up not being very good. The bright spots on this team are all young and with Kingery and Crawford here in 2018, we have some decent trade chips going in to the off season. This team will be very green next season but that will be ok with me.

[VoteForKalas]

Just sit back, press play, and enjoy. Then watch it again:

TMac's calls ruin it for me unfortunately, the guy is truly horrible

Congrats to Hoskins, incredible run. Setting up impossible expectations which I hope the fans & media understand and will not hold against him.

[phillychuck]

I wonder if there is a video of those HRs with Franzke's calls? Love to watch/hear it.

What a great 2 1/2 weeks!

[David_Criss]

Enjoyed watching that so much. Like many others here, I am ready for this season to be over. Between watching a ragtag rotation try to eek out a few innings, save Nola mainly and sometimes Eickhoff, and the offense, this has been miserable to watch. But this proves, we are not bandwagon fans. Hoskins has breathed life and given me hope for the future with the Phillies. If you would have told me, even in June, that I'd be watching an outfield of Kim, Hoskins, the 1B of the future and lifetime journeyman infielder Pedro Florimon start in the outfield in August, I would have told you that you were crazy. Seriously, Pedro Florimon has started in the outfield - that about sums up how depleted this team is. Guess there really is room for Joseph and Hoskins on the same team.

[rkeden]

Maybe I need to get a life but I am looking forward to September, with or without JP and Scott. I want to see the offensive line-up when we put Herrera and Altherr back in and solidify what could be a very offensive team (but in a good way!). That significantly improves the D too. And the more we see of the young pitchers, the better our decisions will be over the winter. The upgrade of Morgan in August from"just another arm" to effective long relief stud (OK, I may be a smidge early on "stud") is a big plus! 35 days to watch and learn.

[Austinfan]

Watching a young team is a painful experience, which is why when you call for a rebuild, well, be prepared for what you get!
At least it's more fun to watch young hopefuls struggle than the 2012-2015 teams go through their end of seasons death marches.

[Slinging_Southpaw]

I don't think I've ever felt better about being a Phillies Fan. I'm only worried that they'll blow it by trying to force things along.

[zambonir]

They may have been tanking last year. Do you really think they were tanking this year? I don't think that was Middleton's goal.

I think they were happy to have it both ways. Klentak very clearly would have preferred to tank one more year. His owner felt otherwise. But neither of them were ready to spend or pursue high-level talent or take on contracts past this season, which meant not getting especially good players. The players they got provided sufficient window-dressing and in the best-case scenario a better team. But the way it played out - Hellickson mediocre, Kendrick injured, Saunders the same as he was last season's second-half, Buchholtz injured - was entirely foreseeable and not necessarily undesirable. Middleton may or may not have realized that but I sure think Klentak did. It also worked out perfectly in the OF - they bought insurance for Altherr and time for Williams - while not working out at all in the rotation.

We'll see. The writers have repeatedly mentioned that MacPhail doesn't believe in free agent pitchers, though his strategy (grow the pitchers sign the bats) seems to have necessarily reversed. The "no contracts longer than three years" was more a Gillick thing. Will Middleton step in and tell his GM he wants Darvish instead of Lance Lynn? Is Lynn untenable if he gets a QO?

They already have plans and FA/trade targets for 2018 and 2019 and always have, obviously those change based on the market. It's not yet clear to what extent the current season might change things. In some ways they are closer than expected and in others, further away. I think they will get two pretty good starting pitchers, but next season could feature a starting 8 where only two players are sure things (i.e. Hoskins, Alfaro, Crawford, Franco, Williams and Kingery will all be establishing themselves). That calls for pitching stability, but it also means they still might need 2-3 position players in 2019 and 2020 if some people don't work out (or get injured). Much like the Astros had to go get Reddick, Beltran and Gurriel. That's why I still think - or more importantly, think that TPTB thinks - it's one year too early for the mega, inevitable sunk cost pitcher at the very top of the market.

[Austinfan]

There should be no urgency for 2018.
Not only are they still finding out what they have at the ML level, but consider the team they'll start with in Lehigh, similar to this season:

C: Numata? (Grullon needs a year at Reading), AAAA pickup
1B: Martin?
2B: Kingery/Valentin - Depends on offseason, Kingery will be up by July
SS: Crawford/Mora - Depends on offseason, Crawford will be up by July
3B: Walding
LF: Pullin, Tromp
CF: Quinn, Tocci
RF: Cozens (Rodriquez will probably go back to Reading to play full-time)
Assuming ML staff is Nola, Eickhoff, [veteran], Leiter, Velasquez
SP: Pivetta, Eflin, Lively, Thompson, Anderson, Eshelman, Kilome, Taveras, Liebrandt [Appel]
RP: Rios, Therrien, Singer, Davis, Arano